Jazz's Brewer hits a sour note
A brief disclaimer before you dig into Bench/Start's Week 11 picks: all recommendations are relative, meaning that while
Tayshaun Prince and
Carlos Arroyo could finish with similar production in matching four-game weeks, I strive to address the varied expectations attached to each player. Most owners' gut reactions would probably be to start Prince and bench Arroyo, so I play the devil's advocate and present the opposite argument. Of course, if your team is stacked with point guards, Arroyo won't be very helpful for you, and if your team is short on lanky swingmen, Prince could be a good fit.
Also, if you started
Chris Duhon last week, I take partial blame: yes, I recommended "running him out there to see what happens", but that was before he dropped two horrible lines over the weekend. So be forewarned: there are lots of games to be played between this column's creation and the beginning of Week 11. For best results, take what I think and combine it with liberal amounts of what you know, then shake, stir, and dominate your opponents.
A quick note on the crumbling Knicks franchise: I landed this job by sending a rather scathing preview of the Knicks' season to Dr. A. I wasn't 100% on, as I predicted a bounce-back season for Marbury, but my introductory paragraph, written before this year's debacle unfolded, is telling. Here is an excerpt:
"I loathe writing about this team. Up until two years ago I lived in northern New Jersey, bearing witness to the Knicks' gruesome sort-of-rebuilding process. I can still remember when Isiah Thomas was seen as the potential savior of the franchise—this was before his blind managerial bungling was correctly attributed to his black executioner's hood (it is hard to see in those things). There is very little that is positive about the Knicks. Anyone who remains a Knicks fan must be either 1) wealthy and only interested in good seats at MSG, 2) too immersed in the slow-motion soap-opera train-wreck to care how poorly the team is playing, 3) a completely exasperated die-hard Knicks fan, or 4) a genuine masochist. I think the Knicks should go ahead and sign
Allan Houston out of retirement (he is considering a comeback) to bring this whole thing full circle. Oh, wait a second! What was I thinking? The Knicks have revitalized their franchise and built a solid foundation for the future by trading for
Zach Randolph. Hats off to Isaiah, the Oracle of MSG!"
Amazingly, the Knicks actually did consider resigning Houston. Okay, I promise not to harp on the Knicks suckiness any more this season. And now, without further nonsense, my picks for Week 11…
TWO games: Nuggets, Clippers, Trailblazers
THREE games: Hawks, Celtics, Bulls, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Heat, Timberwolves, Nets, Hornets, 76ers, Spurs, Kings, Sonics, Raptors, Jazz, Wizards
FOUR games: Bobcats, Pistons, Warriors, Rockets, Pacers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Bucks, Knicks, Magic, Suns
BENCH
Tayshaun Prince: The Pistons boast a comfortable 25-7 record, tops in the Central division, but
Tayshaun Prince's owners don't have much to smile about. In one of my leagues, an owner recently tried to trade Prince to me in exchange for
Daniel Gibson, but eventually dropped Prince for
T.J. Ford after I refused the offer. Why would I turn down a sure starter and hang on to an undersized, one-dimensional backup guard? There are a bunch of reasons. For one, Gibson has the potential to break out this year, especially since the Cavaliers are actively shopping "point guard"
Larry Hughes. But the real reason I declined is Prince's season averages: 13.6 points on 46% shooting, 4.8 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.2 turnovers, with only .4 steals and .3 blocks per game.
Those numbers aren't horrible, but they amount to about 10th round value, despite being right in line with his career averages. If Prince threw in 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per game, his fantasy lines would look a lot different, but he's never averaged better than .9 in either category in his career (although one of his blocks, against a fast-breaking
Reggie Miller in the playoffs, is one of the most memorable things I've ever seen). I'm not saying you should drop him outright—weekly owners can actually use him in a pinch during the Pistons' four-game Week 11—but his owners need to realize that they're never going to get better than ninth- or tenth-round value. Particularly in daily leagues, Prince is prone to underwhelming performances, and should only be a regular starter for optimistic Pistons' fans.
Andrea Bargnani: There's been plenty of chatter about Bargnani ever since he resurfaced in the Raptors' starting lineup. His demotion to a reserve role had landed him on many waiver wires, and although he should once again be owned in all formats, he is still a very shaky start in Week 11. The Raptors have three games scheduled, and Bargnani's last three games (all as a starter) should be sufficient evidence for you to keep him benched for a while longer: he averaged 9 points on 36% shooting (sandwiching a scoreless game between 11- and 17-point efforts) 3.6 rebounds, one assist, 1.3 blocks and 2.6 turnovers.
Bargnani is intriguing to fantasy owners because of his versatility; he typically qualifies as everything from a small forward to a center, and can rack up plenty of blocked shots and three-pointers once he gets comfortable. Unfortunately, he's still trying to get back into a consistent rhythm, and needs to remain on your bench until he is displaying his full potential.
Ronnie Brewer: And the big loser is…
Ronnie Brewer?
Kyle Korver's surprise arrival in Utah was expected to impact the development of bit-players
C.J. Miles,
Morris Almond (well, ensure that he stays in the D-League), and even
Ronnie Price, but unfortunately it has been Brewer who's taken a backseat. In his last three games, Brewer is averaging a mere seven points, one rebound, two assists and one steal. Worst of all, coach Jerry Sloan, whose doghouse has accommodated tougher characters than Brewer in the past, recently criticized his defensive effort, saying, "Ronnie has got to work a lot harder defensively. With his athletic ability, he's got get up and guard guys. He can't back off of them and give them open jumpers."
utahjazz.com
Without sufficient minutes (he has played more than 30 minutes only one time in the last seven games), Brewer can't rack up steals, and without lots of steals he will struggle to help your fantasy team. Korver is a pretty lousy defender himself, and Brewer is talented enough to overcome this apparent demotion, but for now fantasy owners need to sideline Brewer in a meager three-game Week 11.
Nazr Mohammed: Briefly, because I recommended starting Mohammed in Week 9, when he had just arrived in Charlotte: Mohammed needs to be benched immediately. Bobcats' coach Sam Vincent changes his coaching philosophies overnight, literally contradicting himself on multiple occasions. Is
Raymond Felton more effective as a shooting guard, or does limiting him to point guard focus his energy and enable him to be more effective? Should
Emeka Okafor be a power forward, buoyed by
Nazr Mohammed's interior presence, or is Okafor incapable of chasing more athletic power forwards around the perimeter?
The bottom line is that the Bobcats are underachieving, and as the losing continues, so will the lineup changes. At present, Vincent won't play Okafor and Mohammed at the same time, so Nazr is now a reserve big-man, a role unsuited to consistent fantasy value. His numbers have plunged in recent games, and what seemed like a hopeful situation has become as ugly as the Bobcats' playoff odds. Get him benched, and keep him benched until Vincent brainstorms another doomed lineup which features Mohammed in a bigger role.
START
Joe Smith: In Smith's past six games, he has scored 13 or more points five times, capped by Thursday's 31 point, 11 rebound, four blocked-shot explosion. The promotion of new interim coach Jim Boylan bodes extremely well for Smith's fantasy potential: in the six games since Scott Skiles' firing, Smith is averaging 15 points on 55% shooting, seven rebounds, 1.3 blocks and .6 turnovers in only 27 minutes per game.
Boylan has stated that he wants to tighten his rotations and get his best players more minutes, so Smith's upward trend should continue for a while. He's a consistent double-double threat with solid shooting and freethrow percentages, and will contribute close to a steal and a block per game without turning the ball over much. Smith is available in a ton of leagues, but his value is at the point where I can comfortably recommend him in the Bulls' three-game Week 11.
Mike Conley: By now, you probably all know that Conley has vaulted past
Damon Stoudamire and
Kyle Lowry on the Grizzlies' depth-chart, and is now the team's starting point guard. If Lowry were going to get a shot at the job, it would have happened while Conley was sidelined with a shoulder injury, and Stoudamire is not only on the inactive list, he is demanding to be traded. All of this leads me to believe that Conley will be the Grizzlies' starting point guard for the rest of the year.
First things first: go check if Conley is still available in your league. If he is, pick him up immediately, and drop whichever frustrating scrub you've got clinging to the bottom rung of your lineup. Once you've acquired the talented rookie, feel free to start him right away. The Grizzlies' have a four-game slate in Week 11, and although the evidence is extremely limited, it appears Conley will thrive as a starter. In his one and only NBA start, he notched seven points, six rebounds, eight assists and three steals in 34 minutes. More importantly, the Grizzlies won the game, one of only nine victories this year.
Cautious owners might opt to wait until Conley has proven himself as a starter, but the Grizzlies only have two four-game weeks scheduled in the next two months. In my occasionally humble opinion, Conley is a solid fantasy starter in Week 11.
Carlos Arroyo: If you own Arroyo, this is the week to start him. Yes, the $35-million dollar man (
Jameer Nelson) is healthy, but the Magic have won three of four games with Arroyo as a starter, and he should easily see 30 minutes a game in the upcoming four-game Week 11. Arroyo is a classic backup point guard; he's not too flashy, he's not too explosive and he's a mediocre scoring threat, but he is consistent. The most minutes he's ever averaged was 28 minutes in 2003-04 with the Jazz, when he posted career-highs of 12.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, five assists, 2.2 turnovers and one steal per game.
In his last four games with the Magic, Arroyo has surpassed many of those high-water marks: in 30 minutes a game, he's averaging 15 points, 3.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists. He has only one steal and one three-pointer (two typical point guard staples) but he's making up for it with only three turnovers over the same stretch.
Allen Iverson, in a two-game week, would have to average 30 points, seven rebounds and 11 assists a game to match Arroyo's recent production. Bottom line: if you picked up Arroyo, there won't be a better week to play him than Week 11, so either get him in your lineups or drop him for someone better. UPDATE: Arroyo did nothing in Friday's game, finishing with eight points, two turnovers, and nothing else. Either he got injured, or his brief surge in value is at an end.
Rafer Alston: Yes, the Start category is point-guard heavy this week, but I don't dictate the ebb and flow of players' value, I merely comment on it. Alston's selling point is two-fold: the Rockets play four games this week, and
Tracy McGrady won't be available for any of them. With T-Mac is out, Alston always gets more minutes and seems to spice up his game, at least offensively. As evidence, consider his recent performance, mostly without McGrady: in the last eight games, Alston has hit double figures in scoring seven times (he didn't score more than eight points until the Rockets' ninth game this season) while drilling 2.4 three-pointers a game.
There is an obvious downside to starting him, since his rebound and assist totals aren't astounding, he turns the ball over a fair amount, and his steals could use improvement. Still, the Rockets are relying on him heavily without McGrady, and for that reason alone Alston makes a fine, opportunistic play in a loaded four-game Week 11. With my luck, he'll drop a string of 3-of-14 shooting nights and earn me the ire of fantasy owners everywhere (I recently got my first piece of international fan mail, from Italy), but I have confidence in Skip-to-my-Lou this week.
That's it for this week's Bench/Start. Love it or hate it, I'm gonna keep writing, so check back next week for another round of recommendations.
As usual, I'll try to field any specific questions in as timely a manner as I can, so feel free to email me.