Re: Need some hedging opinions on futures
Here's my line of thinking right now....
Obviously, if the Packers win, my chance at any future gain (Super Bowl future) is gone, so does it make sense for me to lay a huge bet on the GB ML (-320) this week (say 35 units)? Thus creating the following possible scenarios.
1) Packers win (other game inconsequential), I win 11 units.
2) Giants and Pats win. I lose 18 units this week (lose 35 units on Packers but gain 17 units on NYG NFC future), and have a future hedging opportunity in the Super Bowl. I would need to be able to make at least 30 units on the Super Bowl to make this more profitable than scenario #1.
3) Giants and Chargers win. I lose 18 units this week and have a more attractive hedging opportunity in the Super Bowl. Again, I would need to be able to make at least 30 units on the Super Bowl.
Is my logic or math flawed here? It seems to me that the lowest risk option would be to lay a huge bet on the Pack ML this week and take the short term loss if the Giants win, knowing that I can make those units back on the Super Bowl.
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