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Hache Man · 03-26-08, 05:12 PM

The Stay-Away List

I've spent the past few weeks going over my favorite sleepers, devoting one column each to AL-only pitchers, AL-only hitters, NL-only pitchers, and NL-only hitters. With the season officially underway in Japan and everyone sneaking in last-minute drafts before the "real" Opening Day that's mercifully right around the corner, let's switch gears this week and examine the overrated players, potential busts, and injury risks who make up my annual "Stay-Away List."

Last year's version included guys like Nick Johnson, Freddy Garcia, Gary Matthews Jr., Mark Prior, Anibal Sanchez, and Seth McClung, all of whom made the owners who drafted them sorry that they did. My focus this year is on big-name players who, for various reasons, I'd do my best to avoid on draft day. The players profiled below aren't necessarily bad, but they're all being drafted higher than they should be or come along with too much risk for my tastes.

Joe Borowski (RP, Cleveland Indians) – Borowski saved an AL-leading 45 games last year, but thanks to his 5.07 ERA and league-worst eight blown saves only David Weathers and Chad Cordero converted a lower percentage of save chances. He's no better than the Indians' fourth-best reliever following the addition of Masahide Kobayashi to go along with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez, and it all adds up to the eventual loss of ninth-inning duties.

Jim Edmonds (OF, San Diego Padres) – Whatever chance Edmonds had of putting together a comeback season at the age of 38 took a major hit when he was traded to San Diego. Petco Park is the worst possible destination for an extreme fly-ball hitter who already struggled to post decent batting averages over the past few years. Edmonds has never been a good bet to stay healthy and is questionable for Opening Day because of a calf injury.

Dan Haren (SP, Arizona Diamondbacks) – Moving to the weaker NL will give Haren a value boost, but he'll miss the vast foul territory in Oakland and figures to see his ERA jump while going to one of baseball's most hitter-friendly environments in Arizona. Consider that Haren has a 3.43 career ERA in Oakland, compared to a 4.11 ERA everywhere else, and you may think twice about betting on him to compete for another ERA title this year.

Livan Hernandez (SP, Minnesota Twins) – Hernandez's ERA, WHIP, OPS against, strikeout rate, and strikeout-to-walk ratio have all gotten worse in four straight seasons and now he's moving to the AL after a career spent in the NL. Even including his prime years Hernandez amassed a 4.91 career ERA during interleague play. His velocity has disappeared while his waistband expanded, and a mid-80s "fastball" doesn't figure to get the job done against Detroit and Cleveland.

Kyle Kendrick (SP, Philadelphia Phillies) – Kendrick was impressive while going 10-4 as a rookie, but was likely pitching over his head. He totaled just 49 strikeouts in 121 innings and previously managed just 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors, which signals that he may struggle to be more than a fourth starter long term. Toss in a homer-inflating home ballpark and he'll have plenty of trouble keeping his ERA below 4.00 again.

Kaz Matsui (2B, Houston Astros) – Two words: anal fissure.

Brad Penny (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers) – Penny posted a career-best 3.03 ERA last season despite a sub par 135-to-73 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Aside from dating Eliza Dushku, the secret to his success was serving up just nine homers in 208 innings. He averaged 21 homers allowed per 208 innings during the previous seven years of his career, so count on Penny's ERA returning to the 3.75-4.25 range. He's also yet to post back-to-back 200-inning seasons.

Aaron Rowand (OF, San Francisco Giants) – What do you get when you take a 30-year-old coming off a career-year and move him from a hitter's haven to a pitcher-friendly ballpark? You get a spot on this list, for one thing. Rowand had a fantastic 2007 season, but his OPS was 90 points lower away from Philadelphia and he hit just .265 with a .740 OPS during the previous two years. Don't expect him to put up big numbers in the Giants' horrendous lineup.

Scot Shields (RP, Los Angeles Angels) – Long one of baseball's best, most underrated relievers, Shields' heavy workloads may have finally gotten to him. He fell apart down the stretch last year, posting a 7.36 ERA after the All-Star break following a 1.76 ERA in the first half, and is now questionable for Opening Day due to a forearm injury. Shields is 32 years old, has averaged 90 innings out of the bullpen over the past four seasons, and may be done as an elite setup man.

Alfonso Soriano (OF, Chicago Cubs) – Soriano remains as potent as ever at the plate and moving to the middle of the lineup will give him more RBI chances, but his days of swiping 40 bases may be gone. Leaving the leadoff spot will mean fewer running chances and lingering concerns about last year's quadriceps injury could make Soriano even more cautious on the bases. He could have a career-year with the bat and still lose fantasy value if he's not running.

Dontrelle Willis (SP, Detroit Tigers) – Many people continue to view Willis as having lots of upside, but he's coming off a career-worst 5.17 ERA that included right-handers batting .320 with a .919 OPS against him. Since 2005 his strikeout rate has dipped while his control has deteriorated, and a move to the superior AL certainly won't help. Detroit's lineup will provide enough run support for Willis to win plenty of games, but his ERA and WHIP figure to be ugly.

Barry Zito (SP, San Francisco Giants) – Not a hard-thrower to begin with, Zito has lost three miles per hour on his fastball over the past two seasons and the lack of velocity caught up with him in a big way last year. Even after tossing five shutout innings last week Zito has posted an ugly 10.31 ERA in five spring outings, managing just four strikeouts (along with 13 walks) in 18.1 innings. Another 4.50 ERA is possible, but let someone else bet on an unlikely return to his A's form.

Carlos Zambrano (SP, Chicago Cubs) – Zambrano's new $91.5 million contract can't wipe away the fact that he had a 5.62 ERA through a dozen starts last season and then lost five straight games with an ugly 9.42 ERA in the second half after seemingly turning things around. He finished strong, and his overall numbers certainly weren't bad, but there's an awful lot of mileage on his arm and he's showing signs of slowing down.

03-26-08, 05:12 PM	#37
Hache Man Moderator On The Rays' Wagon Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida Posts: 46,221	Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008 The Stay-Away List I've spent the past few weeks going over my favorite sleepers, devoting one column each to AL-only pitchers, AL-only hitters, NL-only pitchers, and NL-only hitters. With the season officially underway in Japan and everyone sneaking in last-minute drafts before the "real" Opening Day that's mercifully right around the corner, let's switch gears this week and examine the overrated players, potential busts, and injury risks who make up my annual "Stay-Away List." Last year's version included guys like Nick Johnson, Freddy Garcia, Gary Matthews Jr., Mark Prior, Anibal Sanchez, and Seth McClung, all of whom made the owners who drafted them sorry that they did. My focus this year is on big-name players who, for various reasons, I'd do my best to avoid on draft day. The players profiled below aren't necessarily bad, but they're all being drafted higher than they should be or come along with too much risk for my tastes. Joe Borowski (RP, Cleveland Indians) – Borowski saved an AL-leading 45 games last year, but thanks to his 5.07 ERA and league-worst eight blown saves only David Weathers and Chad Cordero converted a lower percentage of save chances. He's no better than the Indians' fourth-best reliever following the addition of Masahide Kobayashi to go along with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez, and it all adds up to the eventual loss of ninth-inning duties. Jim Edmonds (OF, San Diego Padres) – Whatever chance Edmonds had of putting together a comeback season at the age of 38 took a major hit when he was traded to San Diego. Petco Park is the worst possible destination for an extreme fly-ball hitter who already struggled to post decent batting averages over the past few years. Edmonds has never been a good bet to stay healthy and is questionable for Opening Day because of a calf injury. Dan Haren (SP, Arizona Diamondbacks) – Moving to the weaker NL will give Haren a value boost, but he'll miss the vast foul territory in Oakland and figures to see his ERA jump while going to one of baseball's most hitter-friendly environments in Arizona. Consider that Haren has a 3.43 career ERA in Oakland, compared to a 4.11 ERA everywhere else, and you may think twice about betting on him to compete for another ERA title this year. Livan Hernandez (SP, Minnesota Twins) – Hernandez's ERA, WHIP, OPS against, strikeout rate, and strikeout-to-walk ratio have all gotten worse in four straight seasons and now he's moving to the AL after a career spent in the NL. Even including his prime years Hernandez amassed a 4.91 career ERA during interleague play. His velocity has disappeared while his waistband expanded, and a mid-80s "fastball" doesn't figure to get the job done against Detroit and Cleveland. Kyle Kendrick (SP, Philadelphia Phillies) – Kendrick was impressive while going 10-4 as a rookie, but was likely pitching over his head. He totaled just 49 strikeouts in 121 innings and previously managed just 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors, which signals that he may struggle to be more than a fourth starter long term. Toss in a homer-inflating home ballpark and he'll have plenty of trouble keeping his ERA below 4.00 again. Kaz Matsui (2B, Houston Astros) – Two words: anal fissure. Brad Penny (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers) – Penny posted a career-best 3.03 ERA last season despite a sub par 135-to-73 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Aside from dating Eliza Dushku, the secret to his success was serving up just nine homers in 208 innings. He averaged 21 homers allowed per 208 innings during the previous seven years of his career, so count on Penny's ERA returning to the 3.75-4.25 range. He's also yet to post back-to-back 200-inning seasons. Aaron Rowand (OF, San Francisco Giants) – What do you get when you take a 30-year-old coming off a career-year and move him from a hitter's haven to a pitcher-friendly ballpark? You get a spot on this list, for one thing. Rowand had a fantastic 2007 season, but his OPS was 90 points lower away from Philadelphia and he hit just .265 with a .740 OPS during the previous two years. Don't expect him to put up big numbers in the Giants' horrendous lineup. Scot Shields (RP, Los Angeles Angels) – Long one of baseball's best, most underrated relievers, Shields' heavy workloads may have finally gotten to him. He fell apart down the stretch last year, posting a 7.36 ERA after the All-Star break following a 1.76 ERA in the first half, and is now questionable for Opening Day due to a forearm injury. Shields is 32 years old, has averaged 90 innings out of the bullpen over the past four seasons, and may be done as an elite setup man. Alfonso Soriano (OF, Chicago Cubs) – Soriano remains as potent as ever at the plate and moving to the middle of the lineup will give him more RBI chances, but his days of swiping 40 bases may be gone. Leaving the leadoff spot will mean fewer running chances and lingering concerns about last year's quadriceps injury could make Soriano even more cautious on the bases. He could have a career-year with the bat and still lose fantasy value if he's not running. Dontrelle Willis (SP, Detroit Tigers) – Many people continue to view Willis as having lots of upside, but he's coming off a career-worst 5.17 ERA that included right-handers batting .320 with a .919 OPS against him. Since 2005 his strikeout rate has dipped while his control has deteriorated, and a move to the superior AL certainly won't help. Detroit's lineup will provide enough run support for Willis to win plenty of games, but his ERA and WHIP figure to be ugly. Barry Zito (SP, San Francisco Giants) – Not a hard-thrower to begin with, Zito has lost three miles per hour on his fastball over the past two seasons and the lack of velocity caught up with him in a big way last year. Even after tossing five shutout innings last week Zito has posted an ugly 10.31 ERA in five spring outings, managing just four strikeouts (along with 13 walks) in 18.1 innings. Another 4.50 ERA is possible, but let someone else bet on an unlikely return to his A's form. Carlos Zambrano (SP, Chicago Cubs) – Zambrano's new $91.5 million contract can't wipe away the fact that he had a 5.62 ERA through a dozen starts last season and then lost five straight games with an ugly 9.42 ERA in the second half after seemingly turning things around. He finished strong, and his overall numbers certainly weren't bad, but there's an awful lot of mileage on his arm and he's showing signs of slowing down.