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Hache Man · 03-28-08, 11:19 AM

AL Team-by-Team Notes

This is the first of two notes columns coming out prior to this weekend's drafts. I'll have the NL notes up late Friday night. During the regular season, I'll follow the same format, except columns will be published on Sunday and Monday mornings. However, first up next week, I'll have the NL West prospects column, finishing off the division-by-division rundown.

American League Notes

Baltimore - With just one extra-base hit in 41 at-bats this spring, Ramon Hernandez has done little to suggest that he's in for a bounce-back campaign. He's still going to start four out of every five games, but his backup, Guillermo Quiroz, qualifies as a deep sleeper in AL-only leagues. The Orioles are probably going to be looking to move Hernandez in July to make room for Matt Wieters in 2009, and it's possible Quiroz could spend a couple of months as a regular. … Luis Hernandez is the early choice to be the worst player in an Opening Day lineup this season. He's been horrible offensively (.171/.271/.195) and erratic defensively (six errors) this spring, but he still figures to get the nod over Brandon Fahey at shortstop. Even starting six games per week, Hernandez might not have any fantasy value at all. The Orioles need to be actively exploring the waiver wire for better options, but with Ronny Cedeno and Clint Barmes having won jobs, Josh Wilson, Alex Cintron and Abraham Nunez might be the best options out there. … If Jay Gibbons' suspension is repealed, then he'll likely have a bench spot, leaving no room for Scott Moore or Tike Redman. As awful as Gibbons has looked this spring, the Orioles should strongly consider eating his contract and moving on. Moore has displayed ample potential and would serve as the No. 2 man at both infield corners and the DH spot.

Boston - The Red Sox opened the season with both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp on the roster and gave each a start in center field against the A's. Interestingly, the team wasn't willing to use either in right as a replacement for J.D. Drew. Brandon Moss has already been sent down, so the Red Sox likely would have to play Ellsbury in right when Drew needs a day off. Still, that they're obviously so hesitant to do it could take a toll on the fantasy value of both. Judging by how much trouble Terry Francona had working in Wily Mo Pena when everyone was healthy, there's good reason to believe Crisp won't be worth using in AL-only leagues until he forces his way out of town. … We might have a good idea by the end of the weekend whether Josh Beckett (back) will make a start against the Blue Jays in the second series of the season.

Chicago - Yeah, it's a mean thing to write, but the White Sox are better off with Jerry Owens set to miss at least the first couple of weeks of the season with a strained adductor muscle. He'll probably get his job back when he returns, but hopefully one from the group of Carlos Quentin, Alexei Ramirez and Brian Anderson steps up and provides a real challenge. All have more offensive upside than Owens. It looks like Quentin will get the majority of the at-bats initially, as the White Sox plan to have Nick Swisher play center field and lead off. That's also good news for the offense as a whole. Swisher had a .381 OBP to Owens' .324 mark last year. Quentin and Ramirez should both be worth using in AL-only leagues early on. … Juan Uribe was picked as the primary second baseman, though Pablo Ozuna, because of his success against C.C. Sabathia, will get the nod on Opening Day. Although he's good for 20 homers a season, Uribe will be well below average offensively at second base. Since the White Sox are down on the injured Danny Richar, there's a good chance they'll eventually trade for an upgrade, assuming that they can stay in the race. They might not have enough left in their system to land Brian Roberts, but Mark Ellis could be a possibility. Felipe Lopez probably wouldn't be an option unless they could get the Nationals to take on Uribe's salary in return. Since I'm looking at him as a temp, I have Uribe at just $2.

Cleveland - David Dellucci will get the begin the season on Cleveland's roster after overcoming a strained forearm, but the team can't have much patience with him just because he was good two years ago. He hasn't displayed any power since leaving Philadelphia, and he's no longer an asset in an outfield corner. Ben Francisco could prove to be an upgrade if he gets the chance. … I was pretty optimistic anyway, but I'm especially encouraged about Franklin Gutierrez with him having struck out just six times in 47 plate appearances this spring. He could be worth using in shallow mixed leagues right away. … I'd like to recommend Jake Westbrook as at least a short-term option in mixed leagues with the way he's thrown this spring (0 ER, 16 Ks in 14 IP), but he does get the White Sox, Angels and Red Sox in his first three starts. … Cliff Lee, on the other hand, will get the A's his first two times out after officially being named the Indians' fifth starter. I wouldn't normally suggest playing him in AL-only leagues, but those are favorable matchups.

Detroit - I had Dontrelle Willis at just $4 at the beginning of the spring, and he's down to $2 now. It's not just the 8.64 ERA, but the 15 walks in 16 2/3 innings is a major source of concern. His velocity is about where it was last year, which is about three or four mph down from where he was in 2005. He could still win with the less explosive fastball if he could spot it, but he didn't last season and he's worse than ever right now. Stay far, far away. … Spring training numbers for veteran hitters are essentially meaningless, but it's hard to miss Ivan Rodriguez's eight homers. He had just 11 homers in 502 at-bats last season and hasn't reached 20 since 2001, his next-to-last season in Texas. I still wouldn't read too much into it, but his value has increased a bit, mostly because he's set to bat leadoff against lefties once Curtis Granderson returns. … Brandon Inge will start in center field while Granderson waits for his broken finger to heal. Edgar Renteria is expected to move up from seventh to the leadoff spot.

Kansas City - The Royals confirmed that John Bale and Brett Tomko would occupy the final two spots in their rotation. Bale has looked solid enough that he'll be an option in AL-only leagues against weaker clubs. He'll get Minnesota in the first week and the Mariners and A's in the third week, so he could be worth playing a couple of times early on. Tomko, who has allowed 31 hits in 18 2/3 innings this spring, is just a stopgap and a poor one. … If Jose Guillen's suspension is upheld, it appears that Esteban German, not Joey Gathright, will get most of the starts in right field initially. Manager Trey Hillman thinks his strong arm trumps Gathright's greater range and experience in the outfield. I figured Gathright would be worth using in all formats initially, but it looks like he doesn't need to be owned in mixed leagues after all.

Los Angeles - It still hasn't been announced whether Dustin Moseley or Nick Adenhart will be the Angels' fifth starter, but the assumption is that Moseley will be the choice. Kelvin Escobar's torn labrum still increased the chances that Adenhart will have some fantasy value before the year is out. Moseley should be viewed as a spot starter in AL-only leagues. … The Angels also haven't made any proclamations about the shortstop and catcher situations. Erick Aybar has hit .276/.328/.500 this spring, so it's a good guess that he'll get most of the time at short early on. Maicer Izturis has actually been even better (.372/.436/.512), but the Angels prefer Aybar's defense and will stick with him if he's adequate offensively. … Behind the plate, Jeff Mathis (.343/.452/.486) has outproduced Mike Napoli (.281/.303/.531), but it's only been 35 and 32 at-bats for each. Napoli remains the clearly better bet for fantasy purposes, even if he's forced to split at-bats pretty evenly early on. Mathis has hit .197/.267/.336 in 229 at-bats as a major leaguer, and while he should be better than that, much of his once apparent upside is gone.

Minnesota - I don't see the point of sending down a healthy Francisco Liriano for two of three weeks, but that's what the Twins are going to do. Liriano's ERA will benefit in the end. His replacement, Nick Blackburn, will likely face the Angels, White Sox, Tigers and Indians in his first four starts. It's not a schedule that figures to make him worth using in fantasy leagues. … The Twins have decided to go with Brendan Harris at second base after all, though he didn't get a huge vote of confidence from manager Ron Gardenhire. There's little doubt Gardenhire will want to find at-bats for both favorite son Nick Punto and 25-year-old Matt Tolbert, so Harris likely will find himself on the bench once a series in the early going. … It had become obvious that Carlos Gomez was going to be the Twins' starting center fielder, but his value still got a boost with the news that Jason Pridie wouldn't be kept as a reserve. Now Gomez is the only quality defensive center fielder on the roster, something that should serve to keep him in the lineup even when he's struggling. And there's no doubt he will struggle at times. The steals, though, should make him fairly valuable in AL-only leagues.

New York - No one seems to be talking about Jason Giambi this spring (except ESPN's Gary Thorne, who somehow has the idea that Giambi and Jose Canseco are the same person), but he's hitting .385 with a couple of homers in 39 at-bats. He'd have three, except Franklin Gutierrez went well over the fence to rob him of one this week (it ended up going off his glove for a double). Giambi is a butcher at first base, of course, but he's also a much better hitter when he's allowed to play the field. He can't be counted on to stay healthy, but he shouldn't be forgotten about late in mixed-league drafts. … Andy Pettitte says he'll be ready to go in the fourth game of the season, but it can't be a good sign that he's already dealt with both elbow and back soreness this spring. He's certainly not the best investment among Yankees starters. … Did I mention that Robinson Cano is one of my very favorite picks for this year? Just making sure.

Oakland - The A's made some surprising lineup choices in the Japan series and might have one more in store for Monday. First, Emil Brown got the start over Mike Sweeney on Tuesday despite his extreme lack of success against righties last year. In the second game, both played against left-hander Jon Lester, with Jack Cust taking a seat. Also, Ryan Sweeney started over Chris Denorfia in Game 1 before Denorfia went back into the lineup against the lefty in Game 2. Brown undoubtedly should be playing against lefties, though not at Cust's expense. The injury-prone Travis Buck might as well sit to make room fairly frequently. Brown, though, could be a major liability if he's allowed to suck up at-bats against righties. It won't be a permanent solution. … Less unexpected but still somewhat disappointing was that Donnie Murphy, who outslugged Hannahan by 120 points this spring, didn't get the call in the second game after Hannahan homered in the first. Hannahan hit lefties better than righties last year, but so did Murphy. At the very least, Murphy should get those starts while Eric Chavez is sidelined. … The biggest surprise may still be to come, as Carlos Gonzalez, who didn't make the trip to Japan because of a hamstring injury, could be the team's center fielder for the first game back in the U.S. Neither Ryan Sweeney nor Denorfia has impressed, though Denorfia has been the better of the two and still deserves more time to shake the rust from a lost 2007. Going to Gonzalez seems like a very bad idea. There's little to indicate that he's ready, and even if he is, the A's would have a lot to gain in future years by waiting a while to start his arbitration clock. If he's the choice, a .260-.270 average with decent power could follow, but he'd have subpar run and RBI numbers while hitting low in the lineup and his poor OBP would hurt the A's as a whole.

Seattle - Mariners fans seem to be pretty excited about the chance to take advantage of injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, but two of Seattle starters have given up more than a run an inning this spring and another, Miguel Batista, has been dealing with a sore back for weeks. I'm still not getting worked about Eric Bedard's nine homers and 10 strikeouts in 24 innings. It is Arizona, after all, and his velocity has been just fine. His curveball hasn't been, so a mediocre start is a possibility. However, he's not going to keep getting lit up like this. He always has a bad month each year anyway. He finished with a 6.09 ERA last April and a 7.85 ERA in May 2006. … Carlos Silva is the other starter having an awful spring, but while he's allowing two hits an inning, he given up just two homers and four walks. He'll probably be his usual mediocre self away from Arizona. … It looks like Jose Lopez will open the season batting second, making him a far better pick in AL-only leagues and a sleeper in deeper mixed leagues. Jose Vidro would lose a lot of value as a No. 7 hitter, and Kenji Johjima, who has displayed little power this spring, wouldn't be helped at all by batting eighth.

Tampa Bay - After going through the charade of having him compete for a job, the Rays sent down Evan Longoria. Willy Aybar will probably maintain a solid average as the team's primary third baseman, but it won't come with much power, and since he'll hit low in the lineup, it's doubtful he'll have much fantasy value. In order to guarantee that he won't be a super-two guy, the Rays only need wait until the end of May to call up Longoria. It'd be a major surprise if they didn't turn to him then. … The Rays still haven't found the outfielder they were hoping for, so it looks like Joel Guzman will make the team as a reserve. Eric Hinske will see action over Jonny Gomes versus certain right-handers and would be first in line for a starting job in the event of an injury at any of four or five positions. That makes him a nice $1 pick. … I'm not expecting to see Scott Kazmir (elbow) on a major league mound before the end of April. Those drafting late may want to avoid him completely. There could very well be more going on in his arm than the Rays have made public.

Texas - Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler have looked like All-Stars this spring, but just as encouraging and still going unnoticed is Hank Blalock's .377/.421/.660 line in 53 at-bats. Don't let him fall into the later rounds of mixed-league drafts, even if you already have a third baseman. … Kevin Millwood is the only Rangers starter I'd trust in AL-only leagues at the start of the year. Jason Jennings finished the spring with a 2.12 ERA, but his best fastball has yet to come back. Kason Gabbard has been terrible, and Vicente Padilla is Vicente Padilla. I may have underestimated Luis Mendoza, who really does have a nice sinker, but he's still not a legitimate sleeper in such a poor situation for pitchers.

Toronto - Sure it had to be something of a fluke. But couldn't it also be taken as a clear sign of how much his skills have declined that seven-time Gold Glover Scott Rolen broke a finger on his throwing hand during fielding drills? There's just no way that would have happened five years ago, is there? … With Rolen out for the first 3-5 weeks, Marco Scutaro is going to be the everyday third baseman. Buck Coats will make the team as a 25th man. It looks like the Jays will rearrange their order so that Shannon Stewart and Matt Stairs will bat second, with Alex Rios and Vernon Wells moving down a spot apiece. Rolen had been set to bat cleanup ahead of Frank Thomas. … Judging how significant B.J. Ryan's setback from elbow surgery is impossible from the information the Jays have provided. It's always been the correct strategy to pair him with Jeremy Accardo in drafts this spring. Now the best move could be to stay away entirely. … The Jays have series at New York and Texas and at home versus Boston and Detroit in the first three weeks. Roy Halladay is a must start, of course, and Dustin McGowan can also be used early on, but mixed leaguers might want to sit A.J. Burnett initially.

03-28-08, 11:19 AM	#38
Hache Man Moderator On The Rays' Wagon Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida Posts: 43,131	Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008 AL Team-by-Team Notes This is the first of two notes columns coming out prior to this weekend's drafts. I'll have the NL notes up late Friday night. During the regular season, I'll follow the same format, except columns will be published on Sunday and Monday mornings. However, first up next week, I'll have the NL West prospects column, finishing off the division-by-division rundown. American League Notes Baltimore - With just one extra-base hit in 41 at-bats this spring, Ramon Hernandez has done little to suggest that he's in for a bounce-back campaign. He's still going to start four out of every five games, but his backup, Guillermo Quiroz, qualifies as a deep sleeper in AL-only leagues. The Orioles are probably going to be looking to move Hernandez in July to make room for Matt Wieters in 2009, and it's possible Quiroz could spend a couple of months as a regular. … Luis Hernandez is the early choice to be the worst player in an Opening Day lineup this season. He's been horrible offensively (.171/.271/.195) and erratic defensively (six errors) this spring, but he still figures to get the nod over Brandon Fahey at shortstop. Even starting six games per week, Hernandez might not have any fantasy value at all. The Orioles need to be actively exploring the waiver wire for better options, but with Ronny Cedeno and Clint Barmes having won jobs, Josh Wilson, Alex Cintron and Abraham Nunez might be the best options out there. … If Jay Gibbons' suspension is repealed, then he'll likely have a bench spot, leaving no room for Scott Moore or Tike Redman. As awful as Gibbons has looked this spring, the Orioles should strongly consider eating his contract and moving on. Moore has displayed ample potential and would serve as the No. 2 man at both infield corners and the DH spot. Boston - The Red Sox opened the season with both Jacoby Ellsbury and Coco Crisp on the roster and gave each a start in center field against the A's. Interestingly, the team wasn't willing to use either in right as a replacement for J.D. Drew. Brandon Moss has already been sent down, so the Red Sox likely would have to play Ellsbury in right when Drew needs a day off. Still, that they're obviously so hesitant to do it could take a toll on the fantasy value of both. Judging by how much trouble Terry Francona had working in Wily Mo Pena when everyone was healthy, there's good reason to believe Crisp won't be worth using in AL-only leagues until he forces his way out of town. … We might have a good idea by the end of the weekend whether Josh Beckett (back) will make a start against the Blue Jays in the second series of the season. Chicago - Yeah, it's a mean thing to write, but the White Sox are better off with Jerry Owens set to miss at least the first couple of weeks of the season with a strained adductor muscle. He'll probably get his job back when he returns, but hopefully one from the group of Carlos Quentin, Alexei Ramirez and Brian Anderson steps up and provides a real challenge. All have more offensive upside than Owens. It looks like Quentin will get the majority of the at-bats initially, as the White Sox plan to have Nick Swisher play center field and lead off. That's also good news for the offense as a whole. Swisher had a .381 OBP to Owens' .324 mark last year. Quentin and Ramirez should both be worth using in AL-only leagues early on. … Juan Uribe was picked as the primary second baseman, though Pablo Ozuna, because of his success against C.C. Sabathia, will get the nod on Opening Day. Although he's good for 20 homers a season, Uribe will be well below average offensively at second base. Since the White Sox are down on the injured Danny Richar, there's a good chance they'll eventually trade for an upgrade, assuming that they can stay in the race. They might not have enough left in their system to land Brian Roberts, but Mark Ellis could be a possibility. Felipe Lopez probably wouldn't be an option unless they could get the Nationals to take on Uribe's salary in return. Since I'm looking at him as a temp, I have Uribe at just $2. Cleveland - David Dellucci will get the begin the season on Cleveland's roster after overcoming a strained forearm, but the team can't have much patience with him just because he was good two years ago. He hasn't displayed any power since leaving Philadelphia, and he's no longer an asset in an outfield corner. Ben Francisco could prove to be an upgrade if he gets the chance. … I was pretty optimistic anyway, but I'm especially encouraged about Franklin Gutierrez with him having struck out just six times in 47 plate appearances this spring. He could be worth using in shallow mixed leagues right away. … I'd like to recommend Jake Westbrook as at least a short-term option in mixed leagues with the way he's thrown this spring (0 ER, 16 Ks in 14 IP), but he does get the White Sox, Angels and Red Sox in his first three starts. … Cliff Lee, on the other hand, will get the A's his first two times out after officially being named the Indians' fifth starter. I wouldn't normally suggest playing him in AL-only leagues, but those are favorable matchups. Detroit - I had Dontrelle Willis at just $4 at the beginning of the spring, and he's down to $2 now. It's not just the 8.64 ERA, but the 15 walks in 16 2/3 innings is a major source of concern. His velocity is about where it was last year, which is about three or four mph down from where he was in 2005. He could still win with the less explosive fastball if he could spot it, but he didn't last season and he's worse than ever right now. Stay far, far away. … Spring training numbers for veteran hitters are essentially meaningless, but it's hard to miss Ivan Rodriguez's eight homers. He had just 11 homers in 502 at-bats last season and hasn't reached 20 since 2001, his next-to-last season in Texas. I still wouldn't read too much into it, but his value has increased a bit, mostly because he's set to bat leadoff against lefties once Curtis Granderson returns. … Brandon Inge will start in center field while Granderson waits for his broken finger to heal. Edgar Renteria is expected to move up from seventh to the leadoff spot. Kansas City - The Royals confirmed that John Bale and Brett Tomko would occupy the final two spots in their rotation. Bale has looked solid enough that he'll be an option in AL-only leagues against weaker clubs. He'll get Minnesota in the first week and the Mariners and A's in the third week, so he could be worth playing a couple of times early on. Tomko, who has allowed 31 hits in 18 2/3 innings this spring, is just a stopgap and a poor one. … If Jose Guillen's suspension is upheld, it appears that Esteban German, not Joey Gathright, will get most of the starts in right field initially. Manager Trey Hillman thinks his strong arm trumps Gathright's greater range and experience in the outfield. I figured Gathright would be worth using in all formats initially, but it looks like he doesn't need to be owned in mixed leagues after all. Los Angeles - It still hasn't been announced whether Dustin Moseley or Nick Adenhart will be the Angels' fifth starter, but the assumption is that Moseley will be the choice. Kelvin Escobar's torn labrum still increased the chances that Adenhart will have some fantasy value before the year is out. Moseley should be viewed as a spot starter in AL-only leagues. … The Angels also haven't made any proclamations about the shortstop and catcher situations. Erick Aybar has hit .276/.328/.500 this spring, so it's a good guess that he'll get most of the time at short early on. Maicer Izturis has actually been even better (.372/.436/.512), but the Angels prefer Aybar's defense and will stick with him if he's adequate offensively. … Behind the plate, Jeff Mathis (.343/.452/.486) has outproduced Mike Napoli (.281/.303/.531), but it's only been 35 and 32 at-bats for each. Napoli remains the clearly better bet for fantasy purposes, even if he's forced to split at-bats pretty evenly early on. Mathis has hit .197/.267/.336 in 229 at-bats as a major leaguer, and while he should be better than that, much of his once apparent upside is gone. Minnesota - I don't see the point of sending down a healthy Francisco Liriano for two of three weeks, but that's what the Twins are going to do. Liriano's ERA will benefit in the end. His replacement, Nick Blackburn, will likely face the Angels, White Sox, Tigers and Indians in his first four starts. It's not a schedule that figures to make him worth using in fantasy leagues. … The Twins have decided to go with Brendan Harris at second base after all, though he didn't get a huge vote of confidence from manager Ron Gardenhire. There's little doubt Gardenhire will want to find at-bats for both favorite son Nick Punto and 25-year-old Matt Tolbert, so Harris likely will find himself on the bench once a series in the early going. … It had become obvious that Carlos Gomez was going to be the Twins' starting center fielder, but his value still got a boost with the news that Jason Pridie wouldn't be kept as a reserve. Now Gomez is the only quality defensive center fielder on the roster, something that should serve to keep him in the lineup even when he's struggling. And there's no doubt he will struggle at times. The steals, though, should make him fairly valuable in AL-only leagues. New York - No one seems to be talking about Jason Giambi this spring (except ESPN's Gary Thorne, who somehow has the idea that Giambi and Jose Canseco are the same person), but he's hitting .385 with a couple of homers in 39 at-bats. He'd have three, except Franklin Gutierrez went well over the fence to rob him of one this week (it ended up going off his glove for a double). Giambi is a butcher at first base, of course, but he's also a much better hitter when he's allowed to play the field. He can't be counted on to stay healthy, but he shouldn't be forgotten about late in mixed-league drafts. … Andy Pettitte says he'll be ready to go in the fourth game of the season, but it can't be a good sign that he's already dealt with both elbow and back soreness this spring. He's certainly not the best investment among Yankees starters. … Did I mention that Robinson Cano is one of my very favorite picks for this year? Just making sure. Oakland - The A's made some surprising lineup choices in the Japan series and might have one more in store for Monday. First, Emil Brown got the start over Mike Sweeney on Tuesday despite his extreme lack of success against righties last year. In the second game, both played against left-hander Jon Lester, with Jack Cust taking a seat. Also, Ryan Sweeney started over Chris Denorfia in Game 1 before Denorfia went back into the lineup against the lefty in Game 2. Brown undoubtedly should be playing against lefties, though not at Cust's expense. The injury-prone Travis Buck might as well sit to make room fairly frequently. Brown, though, could be a major liability if he's allowed to suck up at-bats against righties. It won't be a permanent solution. … Less unexpected but still somewhat disappointing was that Donnie Murphy, who outslugged Hannahan by 120 points this spring, didn't get the call in the second game after Hannahan homered in the first. Hannahan hit lefties better than righties last year, but so did Murphy. At the very least, Murphy should get those starts while Eric Chavez is sidelined. … The biggest surprise may still be to come, as Carlos Gonzalez, who didn't make the trip to Japan because of a hamstring injury, could be the team's center fielder for the first game back in the U.S. Neither Ryan Sweeney nor Denorfia has impressed, though Denorfia has been the better of the two and still deserves more time to shake the rust from a lost 2007. Going to Gonzalez seems like a very bad idea. There's little to indicate that he's ready, and even if he is, the A's would have a lot to gain in future years by waiting a while to start his arbitration clock. If he's the choice, a .260-.270 average with decent power could follow, but he'd have subpar run and RBI numbers while hitting low in the lineup and his poor OBP would hurt the A's as a whole. Seattle - Mariners fans seem to be pretty excited about the chance to take advantage of injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, but two of Seattle starters have given up more than a run an inning this spring and another, Miguel Batista, has been dealing with a sore back for weeks. I'm still not getting worked about Eric Bedard's nine homers and 10 strikeouts in 24 innings. It is Arizona, after all, and his velocity has been just fine. His curveball hasn't been, so a mediocre start is a possibility. However, he's not going to keep getting lit up like this. He always has a bad month each year anyway. He finished with a 6.09 ERA last April and a 7.85 ERA in May 2006. … Carlos Silva is the other starter having an awful spring, but while he's allowing two hits an inning, he given up just two homers and four walks. He'll probably be his usual mediocre self away from Arizona. … It looks like Jose Lopez will open the season batting second, making him a far better pick in AL-only leagues and a sleeper in deeper mixed leagues. Jose Vidro would lose a lot of value as a No. 7 hitter, and Kenji Johjima, who has displayed little power this spring, wouldn't be helped at all by batting eighth. Tampa Bay - After going through the charade of having him compete for a job, the Rays sent down Evan Longoria. Willy Aybar will probably maintain a solid average as the team's primary third baseman, but it won't come with much power, and since he'll hit low in the lineup, it's doubtful he'll have much fantasy value. In order to guarantee that he won't be a super-two guy, the Rays only need wait until the end of May to call up Longoria. It'd be a major surprise if they didn't turn to him then. … The Rays still haven't found the outfielder they were hoping for, so it looks like Joel Guzman will make the team as a reserve. Eric Hinske will see action over Jonny Gomes versus certain right-handers and would be first in line for a starting job in the event of an injury at any of four or five positions. That makes him a nice $1 pick. … I'm not expecting to see Scott Kazmir (elbow) on a major league mound before the end of April. Those drafting late may want to avoid him completely. There could very well be more going on in his arm than the Rays have made public. Texas - Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler have looked like All-Stars this spring, but just as encouraging and still going unnoticed is Hank Blalock's .377/.421/.660 line in 53 at-bats. Don't let him fall into the later rounds of mixed-league drafts, even if you already have a third baseman. … Kevin Millwood is the only Rangers starter I'd trust in AL-only leagues at the start of the year. Jason Jennings finished the spring with a 2.12 ERA, but his best fastball has yet to come back. Kason Gabbard has been terrible, and Vicente Padilla is Vicente Padilla. I may have underestimated Luis Mendoza, who really does have a nice sinker, but he's still not a legitimate sleeper in such a poor situation for pitchers. Toronto - Sure it had to be something of a fluke. But couldn't it also be taken as a clear sign of how much his skills have declined that seven-time Gold Glover Scott Rolen broke a finger on his throwing hand during fielding drills? There's just no way that would have happened five years ago, is there? … With Rolen out for the first 3-5 weeks, Marco Scutaro is going to be the everyday third baseman. Buck Coats will make the team as a 25th man. It looks like the Jays will rearrange their order so that Shannon Stewart and Matt Stairs will bat second, with Alex Rios and Vernon Wells moving down a spot apiece. Rolen had been set to bat cleanup ahead of Frank Thomas. … Judging how significant B.J. Ryan's setback from elbow surgery is impossible from the information the Jays have provided. It's always been the correct strategy to pair him with Jeremy Accardo in drafts this spring. Now the best move could be to stay away entirely. … The Jays have series at New York and Texas and at home versus Boston and Detroit in the first three weeks. Roy Halladay is a must start, of course, and Dustin McGowan can also be used early on, but mixed leaguers might want to sit A.J. Burnett initially.