Wired: It's KG's Turn To Win
I'm not going to throw out much fantasy advice for the upcoming three-day week in this column. If you have specific questions, send me an email. I will tackle the injury report in Monday's Daily Dose, so make sure you check it out if your team is still alive. I have also thrown some waiver-wire picks at the end of this column, so check it out.
This week, I'll take a look at next year's projected Top 24 (I'll call it a rough draft, as a lot can happen before now and then), as well as a breakdown of potential playoff matchups.
Top 24 Next Year Bonus Pick No. 25.
Yao Ming – Injuries now a major concern. Draft him at your own risk, as he hasn't finished in three straight seasons due to significant injuries.
24.
Chris Bosh – Might be higher, but injury concerns are legitimate now. Finishing strong for the Raptors, but always seems to be banged up.
23.
Danny Granger – Had a breakout season this year and is only going to get better. Abilities from beyond the arc are key and he should be even better next year.
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22.
Rudy Gay – Going to be a Roto-monster and comes with almost no risk. Threes-blocks combo is key, and there's a pretty good chance I'll have him closer to No. 15 in September.
21.
Al Jefferson – Maybe this is too low, but this should be about right for Jefferson. He's no longer a sleeper.
20.
Paul Pierce – Numbers are down with Big 3, but still a legitimate fantasy threat. Might be his last season as a Top 20 player.
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19.
Baron Davis – Injury free this year, but not likely to do it twice. And can he play any better? He'll probably be taken in the first round of your draft, but I don't see more than 70 games coming next season.
18.
Carlos Boozer – Quietly efficient again this season and injuries are no longer a concern. He tailed off with the emergence of Okur late, but still warrants high pick.
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17.
Manu Ginobili – Cooled off at end and would be scary with real minutes and a full-time starting role. Hot start was key to this year's success.
16.
Carmelo Anthony – Rebounds arrived this year, and so did he. Late scoring binge is helping his stock as well, not counting Sunday's disappointing line.
15.
Caron Butler – Banged up all year, but "Tough Juice" when healthy. Should have a similar season to 06-07 next year, if he can stay healthy. And I think he will.
14.
Allen Iverson – Another year older, but keeps producing. The guy is the ultimate warrior, but just like every other season, I probably won't draft him again next year.
13.
Steve Nash – Changing of the guard is here. CP3 and Deron are higher, and Nash's back will finally cause him to miss at least a few games next season.
12.
Josh Smith – A conservative offering from his No. 1 fan. He slumped at times this season, but I will probably draft him wherever I can get him if I don't get a Top 3 pick.
11.
Deron Williams – Should be a steal at No. 10 next season if stays healthy. If he played against everyone like he plays against CP3, he'd be Top 5.
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10.
Kevin Garnett – Still quality and a favorite player of nearly everyone, but no longer a fantasy beast with Boston. KG has 29 double-doubles this season, while rookie
Al Horford has 25. Enough said.
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9.
Dirk Nowitzki – You have to put him this high, but
Deron Williams sure looks good at No. 8. I'd rather have Dirk leading my fantasy team than my real one, but serious props are due to him for him playing through his high-ankle sprain.
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8.
Shawn Marion – Despite crazy season, still No. 7 overall (per game). I don't care who he's playing for next year, the guy will put up numbers. Tough to blame him for the early shut down this season (unless you were counting on him), and it should make him stronger in 08-09.
7.
Elton Brand – Dude proved he's healthy with strong play over the last few games and will be on a mission next year. He won't hurt you anywhere and should return to form.
6.
Amare Stoudemire – He can even shoot free throws and has made me look like a fool by dominating after his knee surgeries. He may need some cleanup work done on his knee in the next year, but it has not slowed him down up to this point. The arrival of Shaq couldn't even slow him down.
5.
Gilbert Arenas – Assuming he comes back healthy and as Agent Zero, Arenas should be a Top 5 pick. He could fall below that because of nervous owners, but I have little doubt he that he'll bounce back in a big way next year.
4.
Chris Paul – He'll go No. 1 in some leagues, but not if I have the pick. He's had a tremendous season, is a great point guard and I wish he played for the Hawks. But he's still fragile in my mind, and I'm not sure I'll draft him in the Top 5 next year. If he's sitting there at six? He's all mine.
3.
Dwyane Wade – I had him No. 25 a year ago and I think I was right. He should be 100% next year, so let's hope I'm right again. Wade could also slip next year, and be a big steal for someone in your league.
2.
Kobe Bryant – Still the best scorer in the league, and arguably the best player. He will go No. 1 in many leagues and the Lakers could even manage to win it all this year. But he's no longer a one-man wrecking crew in L.A., and hasn't
even scored 81 points in a game in more than two years. Taking Kobe anywhere between the 1st and 10th pick will not hurt you, and I'm not sure I'd pass him up if I had the No. 1 pick.
1.
LeBron James – But then again, the only player I would take in front of Kobe is LeBron. I don't care if he misses some free throws. If you throw that category out of the equation, it's not even close as to whom to take a No. 1. The best thing about LeBron is that he shoots free throws well enough that you can easily overcome his struggles in that category, unlike a
Dwight Howard. If you get the first pick, take LeBron and don't look back.
Playoff Preview Eastern Conference No. 1 Celtics vs. No. 8 Hawks (Magic Number 1) Prediction: Celtics in 4
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A Pacers' loss (@ Washington, vs. Knicks) or Hawks' win (vs. Orlando, @ Heat) puts the Hawks in the playoffs for the first time in forever to face the Celtics and the league's best record. I really don't think either team has a chance against the Celtics, but the Hawks did at least play them tough in Atlanta on Saturday. Either way, you have to think the Celtics will sweep in Round 1, and a playoff berth could save Mike Woodson's job in the ATL.
No. 2 Pistons vs. No. 7 Sixers or Raptors - Prediction: Pistons in 6
The Pistons will be the favorite regardless of which team they face. The Raptors have not finished strong, but the Sixers have also cooled off. I'm going to guess the Raptors will get the No. 6 seed with an easier schedule (vs. Heat, @ Chicago) than the Sixers (vs. Cleveland, @ Charlotte), and I'm guessing the Pistons will take out the Sixers in 6 games.
No. 3 Magic vs. No. 6 Raptors or Sixers - Prediction: Raptors in 7
The Magic have no guarantees of getting out of the first round and both the Raps or Sixers would offer a solid test.
Dwight Howard will have to start blocking some shots,
Rashard Lewis will have to start dropping some bombs, and
Hedo Turkoglu will have to keep playing at a very high level to assure the Magic a trip to the second round. But I'm going to go out on an upset limb and say that
Chris Bosh will step up,
Jose Calderon will become a factor again, and
Jamario Moon,
Anthony Parker,
T.J. Ford and
Rasho Nesterovic will get it going and upset the Magic. I'll blame it on the disappointing
Jameer Nelson running the point for the Magic. If he proves me wrong, I'll draft him next year.
No. 4 Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Wizards - Prediction: Cavs in 6
With
Gilbert Arenas and most of his teammates still not a full strength, the Cavaliers should win their first-round series despite LeBron's back not feeling up to snuff. If Arenas had played at a very high level over the past month, I might be picking the upset here. Not gonna do it.
Western Conference No. 1 Lakers vs. No. 8 Nuggets - Prediction: Lakers in 6
The Lakers need to win their final game at home against the Kings to secure the No. 1 seed and home court until the Finals. The Hornets still have a shot at it, if they can win at the Clippers and at home against the Mavericks, but I'm going to go ahead and pencil the Lakers in with the top seed in the West. The Nuggets' magic number for the No. 8 seed is now 1, and they only need to beat Memphis in their final game to get in. If they lose that one and the Warriors beat the Spurs in San Antonio and the Sonics at home, they'll get in instead of the Nuggets. But let's assume the Nuggets are in. That will win them a date with the Lakers, who should take that series in 6 games, although the Nuggets should present a tough matchup. This series has upset written all over it, but I don't see Kobe letting hit happen.
No. 2 Hornets vs. No. 7 Mavericks - Prediction: Mavericks in 7
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That's right. I'm taking Dirk and the Mavs to upset the Hornets in Round 1. That prediction probably rests on the health of
Josh Howard, but here's to hoping he'll be healthy.
Chris Paul and the Hornets have had a great season, but they've lost two straight and don't have the playoff experience necessary to beat Dallas, unless they're clicking on all cylinders. Then again,
Jason Kidd is suddenly going to have to emerge as a factor and
Avery Johnson will have to let his team play and not over-coach. We'll see. Either way, this should be a fantastic series.
No. 3 Rockets vs. no. 6 Suns - Prediction: Suns in 6
Another upset pick. The Rockets surprisingly cruised without
Yao Ming, but he will be sorely missed against the Suns, who now have a front line that includes
Amare Stoudemire and Shaquille O'Neal, both of which will wreak havoc on
Dikembe Mutombo, rookies
Luis Scola and
Carl Landry, and veteran
Chuck Hayes. Add in the fact that
Tracy McGrady,
Shane Battier and
Rafer Alston are all hurting, and it looks like the Suns should be able to get by the Rockets. Sorry.
No. 4 Jazz vs. No. 5 Spurs - Prediction: Spurs in 7
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Yet another upset pick in the West. I picked the Spurs to win it all in the preseason, so I can't have them losing in the first round. You have to think their experience and defense will get them past the Jazz, but if
Andrei Kirilenko gets it going,
Deron Williams stays strong, and
Carlos Boozer and
Mehmet Okur can both pull off some double-doubles, the Jazz could take the series.
The Finals
The Celtics should win the East if they can stay healthy, while the Spurs, Suns and Lakers are a toss-up in the West. I'll predict the Spurs face the Celtics in the Finals, with the C's taking it all in 7 games. The West is too close to call, and nothing would surprise me. I'm going with what I know. The Spurs are the defending champs and
Kevin Garnett has destiny on his side, not to mention the best defensive team in the league.
Prediction: Celtics over Spurs in 7 games for the NBA Title
Waiver Wire Suggestions
Just a few Waiver Wire suggestions, since that's supposed to be the theme of the column.
J.R. Smith – Nuggets guard is hot, but Nuggets only have on game left.
Jason Maxiell – Pistons still going to coast with two games, Max is hot.
Rodney Stuckey – He'll get two more solid games, then rest in playoffs.
Rasho Nesterovic – Still hot at center for Raptors, two games this week.
Matt Carroll,
Jared Dudley,
Nazr Mohammed – Good two-game fliers.
Brandon Bass – Should be nice in one game with Dirk's minutes down.
Luther Head – If Battier's out, should mean production for Head.
Mike Conley – Very hot right now, should finish with 2 strong games.
Miami Heat – Take your pick from scrubs for 2-game flier.
Chris Quinn – Has proven that he's a good fantasy player right now.
Ramon Sessions – Shouldn't be available, but will finish strong in 2 games.
Wilson Chandler – Tough to argue with numbers in last 4 games.
Nate Robinson – Will Isiah turn him loose for final 2 games? Maybe.
Jarrett Jack – Suddenly hot for Blazers and worth a flier for final 2.
Channing Frye – Ditto.
Ime Udoka – Worth a look in deep leagues with Manu hurting.
John Salmons – Starting for Kings, who are trying to win.
Francisco Garcia – Should hit a lot of threes in last 2 games.
Teams with just one game this week: Mavericks, Nuggets, Lakers, Sonics. Everyone else plays twice. Good Luck!