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Hache Man · 04-17-08, 08:11 PM

Definite-Lee looking good

If the Yankees gave Billy Crystal an at-bat during spring training, doesn't it make sense that they should give the Pope at least one plate appearance when he's in New York later this week? Certainly there's a reason he wears that funny hat around, and I'm guessing it has to do with protection against 90 mph fastballs. Besides, he's just as likely to get on base as Johnny Damon.

Here are some options if your fantasy team needs divine intervention:

American League

1. Cliff Lee – In Lee's first full season in the majors, he averaged almost a strikeout per inning. Since then, his inning totals have increased annually and his strikeouts have decreased. So far this year, Lee has a 12/1 K/BB ratio with just six hits allowed in 14 2/3 innings. There's no denying that Lee's 2007 was brutal, but much of that could be the result of an abdominal strain that forced him to miss the first week of the season. He'll struggle to match his numbers from 2005, but if he continues to make batters miss, pitching for Cleveland will give him plenty of value. His upcoming schedule makes him especially attractive.

2. Milton Bradley – Bradley, who is supposed to be recovering from knee surgery, is currently sitting on a nine-game hitting streak. He's yet to hit a home run, though, and his run and RBI totals have been hindered by the lineup around him. Still, Bradley displayed plenty of power last season despite playing at Petco, and hitting at Ameriquest Field could help him approach 25 home runs if he can net around 400 at-bats. That's a huge "if," however, as Bradley has only topped 377 at-bats once in his career. He'll contribute to your fantasy team as long as he's healthy, and is a worthy option until disaster strikes.

3. Gavin Floyd – The most important thing to remember when looking at Gavin Floyd's 7 1/3 innings of no-hit ball from Saturday is that it was on a cold and rainy day in which there were only two hits through the first seven innings. Floyd's brief time in the majors has been highlighted by a tendency to give up a ton of home runs, and thus far the weather seems to be helping him keep that problem in check. Floyd was also lucky enough to face the Tigers offense before they caught fire, although that turns into a bit of a chicken or the egg argument. Still, Floyd is a former first-round draft pick with plenty of potential – just don't go assuming he's over the hump to quality fantasy material just yet.

4. Sean Casey – With Mike Lowell sidelined due to a sprained left thumb, Kevin Youkilis has taken over at third with Casey stepping in at first. Casey is a singles hitter at this point in his career, but hitting around .300 in Boston's vaunted lineup should give him a decent number of RBI opportunities. In 28 at-bats this season he already has knocked in seven, but he's stuck in the eighth spot and could start losing more time if the Red Sox look to get Jed Lowrie more involved. Casey's numbers have been trending downward since his monster 2004, and he's not a great option for anything but the deepest AL-only leagues.

5. Livan Hernandez – Hernandez has great numbers through four games, as he sports a 3.00 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Most of the credit belongs to the inordinately high number of ground balls he's been able to induce, but there's reason for concern. After allowing one walk in his first three games, Hernandez issued three in his fourth start. He allowed three home runs in his that start, suggesting that he's returning to the pedestrian numbers he's put up in the past three seasons. If he can continue to induce ground balls at his current rate, pitching in Minnesota should help Hernandez improve slightly on his numbers from last season. Still, he's still not someone to be relied upon in fantasy leagues.

6. Justin Ruggiano – With Cliff Floyd being placed on the disabled list, the Rays recalled Justin Ruggiano to platoon against left-handed pitchers. Ruggiano hit .309 in Triple-A last season, with 20 home runs and 26 stolen bases, so he brings a lot of talent to the table. That said, he also brings a propensity to strike out often and is only going to play a few times a week, giving him severely limited immediate value in mixed leagues. Still, Ruggiano projects to have a bright future if he is ever given the chance to play every day, which could ultimately end up happening at some point this season.

7. Nathan Haynes – Haynes possesses two primary talents: the ability to steal bases and superior defense. With Willy Aybar missing a few games before being put on the DL due to hamstring stightness, Eric Hinske moved to third, giving Haynes a few games in right field. Since Evan Longoria's promotion, though, Haynes has played in just two games and doesn't appear to be in line for much more. Haynes has four stolen bases in just 24 at-bats this season, but there's no telling how long it will take him to get his next couple dozen plate appearances. He's only an option if you're desperate for speed and in a very deep league.

8. Joe Inglett – Since being called up last week, Inglett has played in five games and amassed 16 at-bats. He's hitting .375 in this brief period, but that number should come down to around .260 if Inglett continues to hit regularly. Inglett offers little in the way of speed or power, making him a poor addition to fantasy teams.

9. Armando Galarraga – Filling in for Dontrelle Willis, Galarraga allowed just one hit in 6 2/3 innings of work on Wednesday night while striking out six and not walking a batter. He allowed two runs, the second coming as a result of a hit batter that Jason Grilli allowed to score. Still, if Galarraga is going to sustain this type of success, he's got to do a little more work on honing his game in the minor leagues. He'll likely get a chance to resume doing that after his next start against the Blue Jays. He makes a risky AL-only start at Toronto.

National League

1. Manny Acosta/Blaine Boyer/Will Ohman – With Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan now on the disabled list, Braves manager Bobby Cox says he'll use a closer-by-committee approach featuring the three guys listed above. Acosta has been used in more high-pressure situations thus far, but Boyer has displayed more of the high strikeout/low walk ratio that tends to indicate a solid closer. He also has a better ERA, although neither has a great one. Also, before being hampered by shoulder issues in 2006, Boyer was considered a candidate to close over Chris Reitsma for the Braves. Acosta has the most immediate value, but those in deeper leagues might want to stash Boyer if it seems like Soriano will be out for longer than the minimum 15-days on the disabled list.

2. Hong-Chi Kuo – Kuo has taken Esteban Loaiza's spot in the rotation, and while his talent has always been evident, his health remains his biggest problem. In three injury-plagued seasons he's never been able to bring his WHIP into the respectable range, and he already had to miss time this spring due to arm issues. He's always had great stuff, though, and thus far this season has a 0.84 ERA with 14 strikeouts in just 10 2/3 innings. He also continues to be haunted by shaky control, having given up seven walks. Still, Kuo possesses the stuff to make him an asset in fantasy leagues, and his K-rate makes him worth gambling on despite the fact that he'll likely wind up back on the disabled list at some point.

3. Randy Wolf – Through three games, Randy Wolf is sitting on a 1.42 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. His three games have all been in pitcher-friendly parks, but that's one of the benefits of calling Petco home. For Wolf, it should have an immediate impact on the number of home runs he gives up, and thus limit the damage done by his moderately high walk rate. Wolf has been bothered by arm injuries since 2004, and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2005, but so far he appears to be fully recovered. If so, he will be a nice addition for as long as he stays healthy.

4. Doug Brocail – Brocail got his first save of the season on Wednesday night, but Jose Valverde had pitched in three of the previous four nights and clearly needed a rest after a messy meltdown on Tuesday night. After the game, the Astros confirmed that Valverde remained their closer, and it makes sense, as he's really the best suited for the job. Still, Brocail is the clear Plan B, and could see significant saves if Valverde continues to struggle. He's still speculative at this point.

5. Kaz Matsui – Matsui is scheduled to come off the disabled list on Friday, and he's currently owned in about half of all fantasy leagues. Matsui's anal fissure shouldn't affect our original projections for him: he'll likely net you 20 steals over the rest of the season while not dragging down your average. Besides that, his contributions will be just about league average. Still, he's a decent option if you're looking for steals.

6. Scott Olsen – Much like Zack Greinke, Olsen's problems on the field have often been linked to issues off the field. Heading into spring training, there were plenty of feature stories written about how hard Olsen was working to overcome his personal issues in hopes that it would translate to a better numbers. After three starts, he has a 3.05 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, hinting that he could be close to finally pitching to the potential his plus slider hints at. He's already a decent option in NL-only leagues, and his upside makes him worthy of consideration in mixed leagues.

7. Jayson Werth – With Shane Victorino on the disabled list, Jayson Werth is seeing significant playing time in center field. He's gotten off to a great start, raising his average to .370 on the season and stealing two quick bases. Still, Werth's batting average is bound to come back to Earth, and he's not a huge speed threat, making him a better play in NL-only leagues than mixed ones. Ride out his hot streak, but don't get attached.

8. Wily Mo Pena – Wily Mo is back in left field after suffering an oblique injury halfway through spring training. His numbers from last season are pedestrian, but it wasn't until the trade to Washington that he really took off, smacking eight home runs in just 133 at-bats. Pena has legitimate power, but he strikes out a ton and he struggles against right-handed pitchers. If he can lay claim to consistent work in left field, he could approach thirty home runs, but he'll do it while hitting around .260.

9. Mike Fontenot – With Alfonso Soriano hopping his way onto the disabled list, Fontenot appears poised to see significant work at second base for as long as Felix Pie is struggling in center (thus leaving Mark DeRosa in left). He has the potential to steal a few bases and hit a few home runs, but his main contribution is an average that should hover around .300. He should have decent NL-only value for as long as he has a regular job.

10. Skip Schumaker – Schumaker had a brutal start to the season, but a recent hot streak has him seeing consistent time at the top of the St. Louis batting order. While he could finish with a decent average, he doesn't have the power or speed to contribute to fantasy lineups. He'll have some value as a run-scorer as long as he's hitting in the top spot in the lineup, but even that gig is only guaranteed for as long as his hot streak lasts.

11. John Bowker – To say Bowker has gotten off to a fast start would be an understatement. In his first four games, the 24-year-old is hitting .538 with two home runs, a triple and seven RBI. It's a solid start, but nothing about Bowker's minor league stats suggest that he'll hit home runs at anything close to this rate. Expect a solid average, but Bowker should only hit about 10 home runs even if he manages to see 400 at-bats. It's not a given that will happen, either, but the Giants have already said they're planning on sitting Randy Winn more often in order to get Bowker more involved.

12. Shawn Chacon – Chacon pitched eight innings of shutout baseball on Tuesday to lower his ERA to 2.25 on the season. With a WHIP of 1.15, Chacon might be getting fantasy consideration from players who have forgotten that he's still Shawn Chacon. He's walked 10 batters in 20 innings, while only striking out 11, suggesting that his ERA is destined to start climbing. If one wants to find the underlying cause of his success, the BABIP that's just over .200 could be a place to start. Avoid.

04-17-08, 08:11 PM	#73 (permalink)
Hache Man Moderator On The Rays' Wagon Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida Posts: 42,747	Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008 Definite-Lee looking good If the Yankees gave Billy Crystal an at-bat during spring training, doesn't it make sense that they should give the Pope at least one plate appearance when he's in New York later this week? Certainly there's a reason he wears that funny hat around, and I'm guessing it has to do with protection against 90 mph fastballs. Besides, he's just as likely to get on base as Johnny Damon. Here are some options if your fantasy team needs divine intervention: American League 1. Cliff Lee – In Lee's first full season in the majors, he averaged almost a strikeout per inning. Since then, his inning totals have increased annually and his strikeouts have decreased. So far this year, Lee has a 12/1 K/BB ratio with just six hits allowed in 14 2/3 innings. There's no denying that Lee's 2007 was brutal, but much of that could be the result of an abdominal strain that forced him to miss the first week of the season. He'll struggle to match his numbers from 2005, but if he continues to make batters miss, pitching for Cleveland will give him plenty of value. His upcoming schedule makes him especially attractive. 2. Milton Bradley – Bradley, who is supposed to be recovering from knee surgery, is currently sitting on a nine-game hitting streak. He's yet to hit a home run, though, and his run and RBI totals have been hindered by the lineup around him. Still, Bradley displayed plenty of power last season despite playing at Petco, and hitting at Ameriquest Field could help him approach 25 home runs if he can net around 400 at-bats. That's a huge "if," however, as Bradley has only topped 377 at-bats once in his career. He'll contribute to your fantasy team as long as he's healthy, and is a worthy option until disaster strikes. 3. Gavin Floyd – The most important thing to remember when looking at Gavin Floyd's 7 1/3 innings of no-hit ball from Saturday is that it was on a cold and rainy day in which there were only two hits through the first seven innings. Floyd's brief time in the majors has been highlighted by a tendency to give up a ton of home runs, and thus far the weather seems to be helping him keep that problem in check. Floyd was also lucky enough to face the Tigers offense before they caught fire, although that turns into a bit of a chicken or the egg argument. Still, Floyd is a former first-round draft pick with plenty of potential – just don't go assuming he's over the hump to quality fantasy material just yet. 4. Sean Casey – With Mike Lowell sidelined due to a sprained left thumb, Kevin Youkilis has taken over at third with Casey stepping in at first. Casey is a singles hitter at this point in his career, but hitting around .300 in Boston's vaunted lineup should give him a decent number of RBI opportunities. In 28 at-bats this season he already has knocked in seven, but he's stuck in the eighth spot and could start losing more time if the Red Sox look to get Jed Lowrie more involved. Casey's numbers have been trending downward since his monster 2004, and he's not a great option for anything but the deepest AL-only leagues. 5. Livan Hernandez – Hernandez has great numbers through four games, as he sports a 3.00 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Most of the credit belongs to the inordinately high number of ground balls he's been able to induce, but there's reason for concern. After allowing one walk in his first three games, Hernandez issued three in his fourth start. He allowed three home runs in his that start, suggesting that he's returning to the pedestrian numbers he's put up in the past three seasons. If he can continue to induce ground balls at his current rate, pitching in Minnesota should help Hernandez improve slightly on his numbers from last season. Still, he's still not someone to be relied upon in fantasy leagues. 6. Justin Ruggiano – With Cliff Floyd being placed on the disabled list, the Rays recalled Justin Ruggiano to platoon against left-handed pitchers. Ruggiano hit .309 in Triple-A last season, with 20 home runs and 26 stolen bases, so he brings a lot of talent to the table. That said, he also brings a propensity to strike out often and is only going to play a few times a week, giving him severely limited immediate value in mixed leagues. Still, Ruggiano projects to have a bright future if he is ever given the chance to play every day, which could ultimately end up happening at some point this season. 7. Nathan Haynes – Haynes possesses two primary talents: the ability to steal bases and superior defense. With Willy Aybar missing a few games before being put on the DL due to hamstring stightness, Eric Hinske moved to third, giving Haynes a few games in right field. Since Evan Longoria's promotion, though, Haynes has played in just two games and doesn't appear to be in line for much more. Haynes has four stolen bases in just 24 at-bats this season, but there's no telling how long it will take him to get his next couple dozen plate appearances. He's only an option if you're desperate for speed and in a very deep league. 8. Joe Inglett – Since being called up last week, Inglett has played in five games and amassed 16 at-bats. He's hitting .375 in this brief period, but that number should come down to around .260 if Inglett continues to hit regularly. Inglett offers little in the way of speed or power, making him a poor addition to fantasy teams. 9. Armando Galarraga – Filling in for Dontrelle Willis, Galarraga allowed just one hit in 6 2/3 innings of work on Wednesday night while striking out six and not walking a batter. He allowed two runs, the second coming as a result of a hit batter that Jason Grilli allowed to score. Still, if Galarraga is going to sustain this type of success, he's got to do a little more work on honing his game in the minor leagues. He'll likely get a chance to resume doing that after his next start against the Blue Jays. He makes a risky AL-only start at Toronto. National League 1. Manny Acosta/Blaine Boyer/Will Ohman – With Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan now on the disabled list, Braves manager Bobby Cox says he'll use a closer-by-committee approach featuring the three guys listed above. Acosta has been used in more high-pressure situations thus far, but Boyer has displayed more of the high strikeout/low walk ratio that tends to indicate a solid closer. He also has a better ERA, although neither has a great one. Also, before being hampered by shoulder issues in 2006, Boyer was considered a candidate to close over Chris Reitsma for the Braves. Acosta has the most immediate value, but those in deeper leagues might want to stash Boyer if it seems like Soriano will be out for longer than the minimum 15-days on the disabled list. 2. Hong-Chi Kuo – Kuo has taken Esteban Loaiza's spot in the rotation, and while his talent has always been evident, his health remains his biggest problem. In three injury-plagued seasons he's never been able to bring his WHIP into the respectable range, and he already had to miss time this spring due to arm issues. He's always had great stuff, though, and thus far this season has a 0.84 ERA with 14 strikeouts in just 10 2/3 innings. He also continues to be haunted by shaky control, having given up seven walks. Still, Kuo possesses the stuff to make him an asset in fantasy leagues, and his K-rate makes him worth gambling on despite the fact that he'll likely wind up back on the disabled list at some point. 3. Randy Wolf – Through three games, Randy Wolf is sitting on a 1.42 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. His three games have all been in pitcher-friendly parks, but that's one of the benefits of calling Petco home. For Wolf, it should have an immediate impact on the number of home runs he gives up, and thus limit the damage done by his moderately high walk rate. Wolf has been bothered by arm injuries since 2004, and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2005, but so far he appears to be fully recovered. If so, he will be a nice addition for as long as he stays healthy. 4. Doug Brocail – Brocail got his first save of the season on Wednesday night, but Jose Valverde had pitched in three of the previous four nights and clearly needed a rest after a messy meltdown on Tuesday night. After the game, the Astros confirmed that Valverde remained their closer, and it makes sense, as he's really the best suited for the job. Still, Brocail is the clear Plan B, and could see significant saves if Valverde continues to struggle. He's still speculative at this point. 5. Kaz Matsui – Matsui is scheduled to come off the disabled list on Friday, and he's currently owned in about half of all fantasy leagues. Matsui's anal fissure shouldn't affect our original projections for him: he'll likely net you 20 steals over the rest of the season while not dragging down your average. Besides that, his contributions will be just about league average. Still, he's a decent option if you're looking for steals. 6. Scott Olsen – Much like Zack Greinke, Olsen's problems on the field have often been linked to issues off the field. Heading into spring training, there were plenty of feature stories written about how hard Olsen was working to overcome his personal issues in hopes that it would translate to a better numbers. After three starts, he has a 3.05 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, hinting that he could be close to finally pitching to the potential his plus slider hints at. He's already a decent option in NL-only leagues, and his upside makes him worthy of consideration in mixed leagues. 7. Jayson Werth – With Shane Victorino on the disabled list, Jayson Werth is seeing significant playing time in center field. He's gotten off to a great start, raising his average to .370 on the season and stealing two quick bases. Still, Werth's batting average is bound to come back to Earth, and he's not a huge speed threat, making him a better play in NL-only leagues than mixed ones. Ride out his hot streak, but don't get attached. 8. Wily Mo Pena – Wily Mo is back in left field after suffering an oblique injury halfway through spring training. His numbers from last season are pedestrian, but it wasn't until the trade to Washington that he really took off, smacking eight home runs in just 133 at-bats. Pena has legitimate power, but he strikes out a ton and he struggles against right-handed pitchers. If he can lay claim to consistent work in left field, he could approach thirty home runs, but he'll do it while hitting around .260. 9. Mike Fontenot – With Alfonso Soriano hopping his way onto the disabled list, Fontenot appears poised to see significant work at second base for as long as Felix Pie is struggling in center (thus leaving Mark DeRosa in left). He has the potential to steal a few bases and hit a few home runs, but his main contribution is an average that should hover around .300. He should have decent NL-only value for as long as he has a regular job. 10. Skip Schumaker – Schumaker had a brutal start to the season, but a recent hot streak has him seeing consistent time at the top of the St. Louis batting order. While he could finish with a decent average, he doesn't have the power or speed to contribute to fantasy lineups. He'll have some value as a run-scorer as long as he's hitting in the top spot in the lineup, but even that gig is only guaranteed for as long as his hot streak lasts. 11. John Bowker – To say Bowker has gotten off to a fast start would be an understatement. In his first four games, the 24-year-old is hitting .538 with two home runs, a triple and seven RBI. It's a solid start, but nothing about Bowker's minor league stats suggest that he'll hit home runs at anything close to this rate. Expect a solid average, but Bowker should only hit about 10 home runs even if he manages to see 400 at-bats. It's not a given that will happen, either, but the Giants have already said they're planning on sitting Randy Winn more often in order to get Bowker more involved. 12. Shawn Chacon – Chacon pitched eight innings of shutout baseball on Tuesday to lower his ERA to 2.25 on the season. With a WHIP of 1.15, Chacon might be getting fantasy consideration from players who have forgotten that he's still Shawn Chacon. He's walked 10 batters in 20 innings, while only striking out 11, suggesting that his ERA is destined to start climbing. If one wants to find the underlying cause of his success, the BABIP that's just over .200 could be a place to start. Avoid.