EOG Sports Betting Forums - View Single Post - Tool's NBA line predictions for remainder of playoffs

tool21 · 05-03-08, 06:11 PM

I just want to keep everything in one thread rather than starting a whole bunch of them so I'll be posting my line predictions and plays if I come across em all in this thread.

PLEASE READ!!

I cap these games based on stats throughout the entire season. I feel spreads are the easiest to predict. I will not ever consider a game in which a key player is not playing; throw the game out. In the event that a starter is hurt at the beginning of the season and then enters the lineup late in the season i will play this game. He's normally a starter for a reason, and him being in the lineup can only help the team out. Even this type of event doesn't happen to often. No injuries, bottom line. As far as totals, i try to stay as far away from them as i can. They are twice as hard to cap than spreads, IMO. You have to be know not only the injuries of the one team, but injury situations of both teams, you have to know the coaching strategy, and you have to guess the pace of the game as well as how teams are going to shoot. This does not interest me with all these variables and i'd rather stick to just keying in on one teams injuries and not caring about the pace. Situations are also not included in my lines. Teams on a B2B or a team that is down 3-0 in the series and needs a win would be examples. Do that kinda stuff on your on. I am only here to provide line projections based on how a team has played in the past of the entire season. For regular season play home court is already factored into the lines. For playoff play, the home team spread will more than likely be different than what it should be because home court is based on seasoned stats, not playoff stats. Home teams tend to play better in the playoffs/away teams play worse than they would in the regular season but this isn't reflected as much as it should be in the projections. For this reason I will stick with home teams in the playoffs.

the first number is the books opener. The number in () is my line projection. I'm going to add another number to the right of my projection which is the error of averaging. It's a plus a minus deal. Add this and subtract this to the spread or total to see the prediction.

05-03-08, 06:11 PM	#1 (permalink)
tool21 EOG Dedicated Join Date: Nov 01, 2006 Posts: 5,093	Tool's NBA line predictions for remainder of playoffs I just want to keep everything in one thread rather than starting a whole bunch of them so I'll be posting my line predictions and plays if I come across em all in this thread. PLEASE READ!! I cap these games based on stats throughout the entire season. I feel spreads are the easiest to predict. I will not ever consider a game in which a key player is not playing; throw the game out. In the event that a starter is hurt at the beginning of the season and then enters the lineup late in the season i will play this game. He's normally a starter for a reason, and him being in the lineup can only help the team out. Even this type of event doesn't happen to often. No injuries, bottom line. As far as totals, i try to stay as far away from them as i can. They are twice as hard to cap than spreads, IMO. You have to be know not only the injuries of the one team, but injury situations of both teams, you have to know the coaching strategy, and you have to guess the pace of the game as well as how teams are going to shoot. This does not interest me with all these variables and i'd rather stick to just keying in on one teams injuries and not caring about the pace. Situations are also not included in my lines. Teams on a B2B or a team that is down 3-0 in the series and needs a win would be examples. Do that kinda stuff on your on. I am only here to provide line projections based on how a team has played in the past of the entire season. For regular season play home court is already factored into the lines. For playoff play, the home team spread will more than likely be different than what it should be because home court is based on seasoned stats, not playoff stats. Home teams tend to play better in the playoffs/away teams play worse than they would in the regular season but this isn't reflected as much as it should be in the projections. For this reason I will stick with home teams in the playoffs. the first number is the books opener. The number in () is my line projection. I'm going to add another number to the right of my projection which is the error of averaging. It's a plus a minus deal. Add this and subtract this to the spread or total to see the prediction. Last edited by tool21 : 05-03-08 at 06:29 PM.