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Old 05-05-08, 11:00 AM   #109
Hache Man
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Default Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2008

NL Team-by-Team Notes
I didn't think it was a problem that the Cubs' were using their second-best reliever as their closer. Having Carlos Marmol available in the seventh and eighth and Kerry Wood finish up in the ninth was exactly the right arrangement for the team at the start of the year. However, it may be time to reevaluate. It has little to do with Wood's struggles. Yes, he's blown four saves, but he has a 0.87 WHIP and he's given up just one homer in 15 innings. The real reason to go in a different direction is that Carlos Marmol is going to be on the DL by July 1 if it doesn't happen. Marmol has thrown 21 innings through the Cubs' 31 games this season, and while he has been dominant, it takes him a lot of pitches to get his outs. He's thrown 338 pitches this season, nearly half of them sliders. Wood is at 201. Billy Wagner has thrown 170. The NL's busiest closer, Jose Valverde, is at 305. The extraordinary workload Marmol has been asked to undertake would seem to make him a very poor bet for the second half unless something changes soon. Making him a one-inning closer might be the only way to save him from Piniella's wrath.

National League Notes

Arizona - Max Scherzer flashed enormous potential while retiring all 13 hitters he faced, striking out seven of them, in his major league debut Tuesday against the Astros. Now he'll get to join the rotation in place of Edgar Gonzalez. It could be a short-term assignment with Doug Davis likely to return from thyroid cancer surgery later this month, but he's worth playing in all formats while starting. If everything goes well for Davis, Scherzer could be reassigned to the bullpen later. However, his performance this year has put to bed talk that he's going to be a long-term reliever. … Orlando Hudson doesn't appear ready to return from a hamstring injury, so mixed leaguers will probably want to look elsewhere this week. NL-only leaguers can take their chances with him. … Chad Tracy (knee) is set to begin his rehab assignment Tuesday, so the time to sell high on Mark Reynolds is running out. Reynolds isn't going to the bench when Tracy gets back, but he figures to lose some of his value.

Atlanta - That John Smoltz's shoulder woes will at least temporarily force him into the closer's role after he comes off the DL really shakes things up in Atlanta. Rafael Soriano, on the DL himself with an elbow injury, might yet get the job back if Smoltz is able to go back into the rotation after the break. However, Mike Gonzalez will also be an option by then. In fact, Gonzalez could return from Tommy John surgery before either Smoltz or Soriano is activated. He'd serve as a setup man for Manny Acosta initially. On the off chance that everyone is healthy for any length of time, the Braves could suddenly find themselves in possession of the game's best bullpen. Unfortunately, the rotation will suffer. Now it's a must that Jair Jurrjens remain a consistent force alongside Tim Hudson and Tom Glavine. Jo-Jo Reyes could get a long look in one of the remaining two spots. He has upside, but throwing strikes is still a problem. He should be picked up in NL-only leagues anyway. The fifth spot is currently Jeff Bennett's, but Chuck James could be back soon to get another shot.

Chicago - Sending down Rich Hill to work through his command problems was the right move, assuming that the Cubs don't make the mistake of burying him. All indications are that he'll be brought right back as soon as he starts throwing strikes. He's still likely to have some value in mixed leagues later this year. In the meantime, Jon Lieber will be worth using in NL-only leagues. … Aramis Ramirez missed a second game Sunday with a sore wrist, but he needs to be kept active in all formats.

Cincinnati - No one should be overreacting to Johnny Cueto's current 5.40 ERA when he still has an excellent 1.09 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 35 innings. He is giving up homers and pitching in front of arguably the game's worst outfield defense has cost him, but he's still looking like a pretty good bet. … Bronson Arroyo, on the other hand, has some real problems. He's overthrowing both his slider and curve, so neither has its usual amount of break, and his changeup has been worthless against left-handers. He's enough off his game that the Reds really should consider sending him to the pen. It'd be another way to get Homer Bailey into the rotation. … Ryan Freel is starting to win more time in center. He's the best hitter of the Reds' current options in center field, though he doesn't match Corey Patterson defensively. Because Freel is also quite injury prone, it'd make sense to keep using Patterson against righties at least three times per week. Jerry Hairston Jr. started just once last week (in right field to give Ken Griffey Jr. a break), so he seems out of the mix for now.

Colorado - It hardly makes his loss any easier to take that Troy Tulowitzki was struggling so mightily at the plate The Rockies' remaining middle-infield options are all 25th men. Clint Barmes has already cooled off, as a 3-for-25 slump has dropped his average to .280. Because of his microscopic walk rate, he's a lousy player when he's not hitting for average. Omar Quintanilla is a fine defender and a patient hitter, but he has no power to speak of. Jeff Baker isn't really a second baseman, though the Rockies might as well keep using him there when Aaron Cook isn't pitching. Jon Herrera is probably a year away. Juan Castro, signed to a minor league contract, could be called on to provide his own unique brand of "help" next week. For fantasy purposes, Baker's power makes him the best of the group. I think Quintanilla should play more than Barmes, but it probably won't happen anytime soon. Barmes is still the better bet in NL-only leagues. … Ubaldo Jimenez fared better against the Giants last week, but he needs another strong outing Monday against the Cardinals to secure his rotation spot. That's the case even though the Rockies are currently starting both Mark Redman and Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa was awful Saturday against the Dodgers, but he'll get at least one more shot. Next in line is probably Josh Towers, even though his Triple-A ERA stands at 6.12. Fortunately, the Rockies haven't given any thought to putting Taylor Buchholz back into the rotation. He's turning into an excellent short reliever.



Florida - I'd be more excited about Scott Olsen's start if he didn't have just 15 strikeouts in 40 innings. The talent has always been there for him to develop into a No. 2 starter, but the numbers say he's been at least as lucky as good so far. I don't know that it's completely true -- his changeup, in particular, looks a lot better than it did last year -- but he's still walking batters and he's due to start giving up the occasional homer. He's not a great play in mixed leagues. … Hanley Ramirez's fantasy value was mostly unaffected by the move to the third spot in Florida's lineup. Dan Uggla stands to lose big after going from second to sixth, but he's been on fire since the switch. His owners might want to see about selling high if he can build up his value over the next couple of weeks. If the switches don't last, it will probably be because Alfredo Amezaga and Cody Ross fail as Ramirez's replacement in the leadoff spot. The Marlins should still be in the market for center-field alternatives. If they fancy themselves contenders, then perhaps Kenny Lofton would be a possibility. … Luis Gonzalez has value in NL-only leagues while Josh Willingham rests his sore back for the next two weeks.

Houston - Since Wandy Rodriguez (groin) won't return this week as hoped, the Astros are hurting for starters. Chris Sampson may get to stay in the rotation despite a 7.96 ERA, and Brian Moehler might make his first start since 2006. A better idea than going to Moehler would be to reach down to Triple-A Round Rock for left-hander Josh Muecke, though he's not going to be a long-term fix. Fernando Nieve might be, but he's still not all of the way back from Tommy John surgery. He currently has a 5.28 ERA through six starts for Round Rock. … With Ty Wigginton and Kaz Matsui back, the Astros are free to resume discussing Mark Loretta in deals. Loretta is hitting just .211/.299/.263, but there's still some interest in him around the league. If the Astros could get a major league reliever for him, they'd have to consider it. The Padres and Dodgers could make plays for him after losing out on Juan Castro.

Los Angeles - Putting a Gold Glove catcher at third base seems crazy, but the Dodgers actually did it on back-to-back days. It can't be a real break for Russell Martin, even if it does free him from having to squat 150 times per day. He still needs actual rest on occasion. Otherwise, it's likely that he'll wear down again this season. … Andy LaRoche was still at least a week away anyway as he continued to rehab his thumb injury. Now he's been optioned down, creating doubt about when he'll get his chance. Blake DeWitt has played quite well since returning to the majors when Nomar Garciaparra got hurt, so there was no reason for the Dodgers to make the switch at present. Still, they need to give LaRoche a real look, as he offers the best potential combination of offense and defensive of the team's options at third. He should be 100 percent by the end of the month. … With off days Thursday and next Monday, it sounds like the Dodgers will go without a fifth starter for now. Esteban Loaiza may again be the choice next time one is needed on May 17, but by early June, either Jason Schmidt (shoulder) or top prospect Clayton Kershaw could be a possibility.

Milwaukee - Eric Gagne's fifth blown save on Sunday is going to force the Brewers to seriously consider making a change in the closer's role. Besides recent callup Mitch Stetter, who isn't a legitimate alternative, the Brewers' best relievers have been Salomon Torres and Guillermo Mota. Of the two, Mota would make more sense in the ninth, primarily because Torres is most valuable when he's entering with men on base and working more than one inning. Mota, though, has issued 10 walks in 15 innings this season, and it's hardly likely that the Brewers will want to trade one frustratingly wild closer for another. Sticking with Gagne is probably the best option for now. If he's still struggling in a couple of weeks, it will be time to go to Mota or maybe David Riske, if he starts throwing better. … The devastating knee injury suffered by Yovani Gallardo has Dave Bush back in Milwaukee's rotation. Bush is a spot starter in NL-only leagues at this point. … If Manny Parra doesn't work through his problems soon, he might be sent down in favor of Jeff Weaver later this month. Parra should have much better than a .330 average against and a 22/17 K/BB ratio after six starts. It'd be a mistake for NL-only leaguers to give up on him, but it is disappointing to see him failing to pitch up to his ability.

New York - Carlos Delgado's awful start has helped Carlos Beltran's struggles go relatively unnoticed. Beltran, though, has a .210 average and just two homers to date. Perhaps more than any other star in baseball, Beltran just isn't any good when he has to play at less than 100 percent, and he still isn't completely recovered from offseason surgery on both knees. I think he qualifies as a buy-low candidate, but an immediate turnaround probably isn't on the way. … Moises Alou's return Friday put Angel Pagan on the bench. Alou won't be an everyday player as the Mets try to keep him healthy, but he's still good enough that he makes for a decent play in mixed leagues while starting five games per week. It'll help that he's hitting right behind David Wright and Beltran. … Claudio Vargas had a rough debut for Triple-A New Orleans on Sunday, giving up six runs in four innings. It looks like Mike Pelfrey and Nelson Figueroa are safe for a couple of more weeks anyway.

Philadelphia - Brett Myers struck out 10 and showed his best fastball of the season Saturday against the Giants. He did give up another homer -- his 11th in seven starts -- but it was an encouraging showing. … I don't always like his in-game moves, but Charlie Manuel has done a very nice job of handling his lineup this year. With Shane Victorino back, he has decisions to make every day in the outfield, at third base and behind the plate, yet he's done a fine job of keeping everyone in the mix. Before a well-deserved off day Sunday, Jayson Werth had been a fixture in the outfield. He'll remain the starter until he slumps, meaning Victorino and Geoff Jenkins could share time pretty evenly. Mixed leaguers capable of waiting to activate Victorino should do so until he reemerges as an everyday player. Along with Werth, Greg Dobbs and Chris Coste have been picking up at-bats. Pedro Feliz remains the nominal starter at third base, but Dobbs will start against every second righty anyway. He has the better OPS versus righties by 250 points. Coste seems to have cooled off just as he was on his way to winning additional time. Ruiz remains easily the better bet of the two catchers for fantasy purposes. … Jimmy Rollins (ankle) is hoping to come off the DL on Thursday.



Pittsburgh - The Pirates have no starters with an ERA under 4.50 or more than two wins. That Matt Morris was put out to pasture can only help, but there still isn't a lot of reason for optimism beyond the inevitable Ian Snell turnaround. Tom Gorzelanny appears to be pitching hurt, and the back strain that will give him this week off could qualify as good news. Zach Duke has just 10 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings, and as poor as the Pirates' defense is, there's no way he can succeed while getting so few outs himself. Paul Maholm has been adequate, but that's as good as it gets for him. Phil Dumatrait isn't any sort of answer as the replacement for Morris, and with no prospects ready, the Pirates need to be keeping an eye on the waiver wire for alternatives. They also shouldn't be ruling out trading Xavier Nady for a young starter. His value will never he higher. … Since Jose Bautista finally seems to have turned it around, he'll stop losing at-bats to Doug Mientkiewicz and Chris Gomez. Adam LaRoche is next. … Jack Wilson had a setback with his strained calf, so it doesn't look like he'll return this week. Brian Bixler will be sent down once Wilson comes off the DL.

St. Louis - That Jason Isringhausen has already blown more saves this year (three) than he did all of 2007 (two) is of some concern, but there doesn't seem to be anything wrong with him at all. His cut fastball is still moving, and if he's not hitting his spots, well, he's never been known for his pinpoint command. He should be fine. … Mark Mulder (shoulder) was ripped in his fourth rehab start, seemingly eliminating any chance of an early return from the DL. The Cardinals still don't want to bump anyone from their rotation anyway. There's a real chance that Mulder won't prove to be an upgrade on any of the current starters. He's likely to get his shot regardless come May 21. Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro look like the candidates to go to the pen to make room for him. … Pineiro is questionable to make his start Monday because of a sore back. Mike Parisi could be called on to fill in for him.

San Diego - The Padres appear to be leaning towards pulling Justin Germano out of the rotation and replacing him with Wilfredo Ledezma or Glendon Rusch. Neither southpaw is worth an immediate pickup in NL-only leagues, but Ledezma does have some upside. It seems unlikely, but there is a slight chance the Padres could bypass both and go to Shawn Estes. He did have a quality start five years ago, after all. … The move to gamble on Jim Edmonds didn't seem like a bad one, but the 37-year-old has been awful at the plate this year and he's not making up for it with his glove. If there's one team that could really use Coco Crisp, it's San Diego. Jake Peavy's suggestion that the Padres make a play for Lofton also looks like a good one. Edmonds should get the rest of the month to improve, but the future looks bleak for him.

San Francisco - The No. 1 complaint from last week's May rankings involved leaving out Jonathan Sanchez. I do regret it, though it was more a judgment error than an oversight. I still wouldn't put him any higher than the 95-105 range among SPs. We know he can strike out batters, but command remains a major issue and it's not like he's going to rack up victories. It figures that he'll be pretty inconsistent. … Barry Zito's bullpen stint won't last long at all, but it may give him a chance to tweak his delivery a bit. He needs to do something in an attempt to either add velocity or deception. I wonder how much differently things would have gone had the Giants let Zito proceed with the new windup he came up with heading into spring training 2007. The team quickly pressured him into ditching his longer stride that might have helped lead to more velocity. They figure to be a lot more open-minded about any proposed changes at this point. … The Giants face five lefties this week, making John Bowker a poor play in NL-only leagues. Fred Lewis will probably start at least three of the games, so he can be left active in NL-only leagues. However, any mixed leaguers that picked him up should look elsewhere for the week.

Washington - A torn muscle below Chad Cordero's shoulder is supposed to keep him out 4-6 weeks, but it's obviously going to be longer than that before he's again an option in fantasy leagues. If Jon Rauch was already a 50/50 bet to close for the Nats for the rest of the year, it's more like 70/30 now. … With a .226 average on balls in play, Nick Johnson has been one of the game's unluckiest hitters to date. Incredibly, he's the Nationals' RBI leader anyway, as he's saved his best work for big situations. The singles will come, and there will be times this year during which he'll be worth using in shallow mixed leagues. Of course, he's still a great bet to serve a DL stint or two. … Matt Chico, who is 0-5 with a 6.87 ERA, apparently hasn't punched his ticket back to Triple-A just yet, but it could happen if he doesn't turn in a better outing against the Marlins this weekend. Jason Bergmann would be the top candidate to replace him. … Due to face both the Astros and Marlins, Shawn Hill looks like a solid choice as at least a one-week option in NL-only leagues.
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