Hanging with the Rookies
Each year I get to do something that very few journalists get a chance to do. Every third weekend of May, I get to travel to Los Angeles and watch 32 of the top NFL rookies put on their pro uniforms for the very first time. It's like watching kids in a candy store as these instant millionaires suddenly get the realization that they have actually arrived in the National Football League.
Since 1994, the NFL Players Association has organized what is called the Rookie Photo Shoot for the trading card companies. It's an event that was designed to give the card companies a chance to photograph the top rookies in their NFL uniforms before training camps begin so that they can get those rookie cards in their sets before the start of the NFL season. It's a great idea and one that has been good for the football card industry, good for the NFLPA and good for the players.
Now sponsored by Reebok and EA Sports, the Rookie Photo Shoot is held each year at the L.A. Coliseum and this year 32 skill-position rookies were on hand for the two-day event involving Upper Deck, Topps and Donruss/Playoff. Once in their new NFL uniforms for the first time, the players posed for the cameras, re-enacted game situations and even signed event-used memorabilia. They even took time to talk with fantasy writers like me, while continually checking their uniforms to make sure this wasn't a dream.
I've been to 15 of the 16 Rookie Photo Shoots since 1994 and I've interviewed everyone from a very shy
Terrell Davis in 1995 to a very confident
Marshawn Lynch in 2007. There are times when I've felt like I could predict the future with these guys after talking with them and seeing them in person, but many times I'm wrong as you can't judge the size of their heart with one interview.
I barely interviewed Davis in 1995 as he seemed too introverted to be successful and I stayed away from
Koren Robinson and
Plaxico Burress a few years later as both were way too "overconfident" for my liking. Sometimes you miss and sometimes your intuitions are right.
This year I'll give you some unique insights into the top rookie selections that I met in Los Angeles. Here are my Top 15 rookie selections, ranked in order of fantasy preference for the 2008 season:
1. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: Al Davis grabbed McFadden fourth in the draft and will build his offense around this lightening-quick back with
Justin Fargas in a reserve role. McFadden rushed for 1,830 yards last year at Arkansas and scored 16 TDs, but there is some concern that at 6'1", 217 pounds he may not be able to handle the physical play of the NFL. McFadden has an extremely strong upper body and hips, but I'll admit he has the skinniest calf muscles I've seen on an NFL back.
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Still, this is a back who seemed extremely confident to me – not overconfident either and he didn't bring an entourage of friends with him – and he's in an ideal situation to excel. He looks like he will run strong between the tackles and once he gets in the open field he could be as exciting as
Adrian Peterson was last year. There's too much upside here to ignore.
2. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Stewart was the most physically impressive rookie back in Los Angeles as he's a load at 5'10" and 233 pounds. Last year at Oregon, he ran for 1,722 yards and 11 TDs and he will replace
DeShaun Foster as the every-down back in Carolina, with
DeAngelo Williams coming in on passing situations. Stewart is also extremely confident in his abilities and he is stepping into a perfect situation with the Panthers as the 13th overall pick. Physically and mentally, this guy has what it takes to be the top rookie of 2008.
carolinapanthers.com 3. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers: The Illinois star fell to 23rd overall and now will be in a platoon role with
Willie Parker in Pittsburgh. It's not an ideal situation, but Mendenhall has the physical skills to steal more playing time away from Parker if he's not fully recovered from last year's broken leg. At 5'10", 225 pounds, Mendenhall is a load and I was impressed with his confidence when I met him. He looks like a young
Jerome Bettis in his new No. 34 Steelers' uniform and he could carry the load there very, very soon.
4. Matt Forte, RB Bears: The Bears had
Cedric Benson running with the first team at last week's mini-camp, but this second-round pick out of Tulane could steal that job away very soon. Forte rushed for 2,127 yards and 23 TDs last year at Tulane and at 6'1", 217 pounds he has the physical skills to carry the load. He's not as big as the top three rookie backs and he's not as fast as them, either, but he gains yards after contact. I think he'll platoon with Benson this year and give the Bears a much better ground game all around.
5. Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys: Jones played second fiddle to McFadden at Arkansas, but he still rushed for 1,162 yards and 11 TDs last year. He will turn out to be the perfect complement to
Marion Barber in Dallas, getting 8-10 carries per game and being a solid receiver out of the backfield. He's quick as they come out of the backfield and he has better size than I expected at 6'0", 207 pounds. This guy is ecstatic to be going to Dallas and will be a worthy backup RB in fantasy football this season.
6. Kevin Smith, RB, Lions: Smith led the nation last year at the University of Central Florida with 2,567 yards and 29 TDs, but he fell to the first pick in the third round because he's not fast and he's not overly strong. He has good size at 6'1", 217 pounds and he's going to a team that desperately needs a playmaker in the backfield, but I still think it will take some time before Smith emerges as a starter. His lack of explosiveness to the hole could keep him in a platoon role with
Tatum Bell this year before he emerges as the starter later in the year.
detroitlions.com 7. Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons: Okay, we finally found somebody who actually collects sports cards as Ryan admitted he did a little collecting in his younger years. Only a handful of players from this group ever collected cards, but we won't hold that against them. Ryan is as confident as they come and you could see how much he enjoyed having that Falcons' jersey on last weekend.
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He exudes confidence and at 6'4", 228 pounds he looks like the prototypical NFL QB. Ryan threw for 4,507 yards and 31 TDs last year at Boston College and even though he says that he just wants to fit in with the Falcons and will do whatever the coaches ask of him, you know deep down he has every intention of going there and starting at some point this year. I think Ryan is going to be special and down the road he will be a Top 10 fantasy QB. It just won't happen this year.
8. Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: The Titans have had more top rookies at this event over the years than any team I can remember and they all look promising in pads, but do little on the field.
Chris Brown.
LenDale White.
Chris Henry.
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Now
Chris Johnson. The 5'11", 198-pounder rushed for 1,123 yards and 17 TDs last year at East Carolina and should be a good complement to White in Tennessee, but he doesn't look big enough to be an everydown back. I'm not sure he's much of an upgrade from Henry, which makes this a questionable first round pick for the Titans.
9. Devin Thomas, WR, Redskins: No wide receiver went in the first round this year and I can see why. There are a lot of smallish wideouts this year that could make impacts on special teams right away, but will struggle to make an impact in the NFL this year.
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The best candidate to make an impact, in my opinion, is Thomas, who went 34th overall after catching 79 passes for 1,260 yards and eight TDs last year at Michigan State. Thomas has good size (6'2", 216) and will battle with fellow rookie
Malcolm Kelly for the No. 3 WR role. Thomas will be a worthy pickup this year and he will have more than his share of highlight-reel catches.
10. James Hardy, WR, Buffalo: Hardy was an interesting one to meet because weeks before this outing he had an altercation with his dad. But I'll say that he was an extremely nice and confident kid who may have the best chance to excel among any of the rookie wideouts.
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He should be the No. 3 wideout in Buffalo after catching 76 passes for 1,125 yards and 16 TDs last year at Indiana, and at 6'5", 217 pounds he was the most physically impressive wideout of the group. Keep an eye on this kid because he could be something special.
I'll close out my Top 15 with a quick comment on the next 5 rookies.
11. Limas Sweed, WR, Steelers: This second-round pick out of Texas looks like a younger, leaner
Plaxico Burress. He's 6'4" with long arms, but needs even more meat on this 215-pound frame. In time, he could be a good one.
12. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Redskins: This Oklahoma wideout is a spittin' image of Thomas at 6'3", 224 pounds. These two could be 1-2 options in a few years.
washingtonredskins.com 13. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens: He's a tough bowling ball at 5'8" and 199 pounds who ran for 2,012 yards and 24 TDs last year at Rutgers. He should be a good backup in Baltimore, but it's hard to imagine him being an every-down back anytime soon with
Willis McGahee in the fold. He sure is a nice, nice kid who has a great attitude and I'll be pulling for him.
baltimoreravens.com 14. Dustin Keller, TE, Jets: He's extremely short for a tight end (6'2" seemed generous) and will likely be used more in pass catching situations. I don't see him becoming an every-down tight end anytime soon.
newyorkjets.com 15. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: Jackson is as quick as they come in this rookie class, but he's also among the smallest at 5'9", 169 pounds. It's hard to imagine Jackson getting off the line of scrimmage easily or going across the middle for catches in the NFL. He looked small even among the journalists, which is saying something.
All in all, this class likely won't rank among the top half that I've seen since 1994, but there are enough potential stars at RB to make things interesting this Draft Day. And in time, these wideouts could emerge as a solid group. They just won't star right away.