First and foremost, I check the play by plays of each game for drives that should have ended in points... If one team drives all the way down to the opponents 5 yard line with a 1st down and they fumble it, I mark down in my handicapping that if it weren't for this "freak occurrence", the team would have had 7 points.
Secondly, I check the play by plays of each game for scoring that normally wouldn't have happened. Using the example above, if the team would have fumbled it on the 1 yard line and the defense returned it for a touchdown. In my handicapping, such an occurrence is considered an anomaly and the 14 point swing that occurs because of it should be ignored.
Last, I look at penalty yardage.
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