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Old 10-17-06, 06:47 PM   #1
Hache Man
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Default Fantasy Football News (10/17/06)

Waiver Wired: Wali's Back
Everything was working against Matt Leinart Monday night. In his second career start, Leinart was facing the best defense in football with no running game to help him out. Larry Fitzgerald was sidelined, so the rookie quarterback had to rely on Troy Walters and Leonard Pope. After Chicago completed their devastating fourth quarter comeback, Leinart calmly marched the ball down the field like a veteran until Edgerrin James failed to convert two short-yardage chances and Neil Rackers missed a 41-yard field goal. Don't let the final score or the greatest post-game meltdown since Jim Mora's "Playoffs?" rant distract you from the biggest fantasy story of Monday night. Leinart already looks like an every-week starter.

Rex Grossman, on the other hand, looks like a quarterback playing in his first full year as a starter. Since his two big games (against Detroit and Green Bay), Grossman has thrown five touchdowns and six interceptions in four games, barely completing half his passes over that span. Grossman has taken a step forward this year, but he's only a useful QB2. Trade him if an owner in your league believes he's a difference-maker.

The waiver wire doesn't feature many new names this week, but the re-emergence of a preseason superstar in Houston should intrigue running back-desperate teams.

Running Back

Wali Lundy, Texans - Ron Dayne isn't getting it done and coach Gary Kubiak is tired of waiting for him. Dayne may also miss practice time this week due to injury. Samkon Gado is a decent option on passing downs, but hasn't made a big impact. Kubiak made it clear that he wants to make Houston Wali's world again in his Monday presser. Unprompted, Kubiak said, "I think it's time to get (RB) Wali (Lundy) more involved in what we're doing."

Later, when asked about undrafted free agent Chris Taylor, Kubiak said, "I think Wali can handle (the load)… I think we had a couple of good guys that we need to take a look at, but it is obvious right now that we have to give the kid a chance to come back and play some more. He's been working hard, and he'll get that opportunity. We're going to keep searching with those guys until somebody steps up and plays extremely well."

Lundy was a force in the preseason, but quickly got the hook once the regular season started for new arrivals Dayne and Gado. Lundy's 3.4 yards-per-carry average is still leading the team. Chasing Texans runners hasn't paid off this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if Lundy is starting again this week. With games against the Titans (twice), Jets, Raiders, and Colts still on the docket, he's worth picking up in 12-team formats to see what happens.

Recommendation:Should be owned in 12-team leagues

DeAngelo Williams, Panthers - Fantasy football leaguers are an impatient tribe. In Week 2, DeAngelo Williams was the future of the Panthers after 98 total yards and a score. Now that he's out a month, most owners will drop Williams. In shallow leagues, this is a fine move, but Williams is worth stashing in 12-by-15 leagues for December. I doubt DeShaun Foster can hold up all season and Carolina wants more than the 3.8 yards-per-carry their starter is giving them. Williams could be getting big-time carries when fantasy games count most.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Chris Perry, Bengals - Chris Perry, "has a chance to be cleared for action Wednesday," according to coach Marvin Lewis. Perry is an asset on third downs and is great insurance for Rudi Johnson owners at worst. He's a third-down back on what should be one of the best offenses in football.

Recommendation:Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Najeh Davenport, Steelers - When NFL Network's Rich Eisen said Davenport dumped on Carolina's defense Sunday, Dookie jokes had officially reached critical mass. Eisen, in my opinion, is the best television host in all of sports and I applaud his use of a national outlet for crap jokes. But hearing the joke on NFLN helped put the nail in the hamper for me. It's been a great ride, but it's probably time to retire the Dookie jokes. After four great years, we've squeezed every last ounce of funny out of the bit. Thanks for the memories.

Davenport, meanwhile, is a useful player in fantasy leagues again. The Steelers tested him out as their goal-line back in the fourth quarter and Davenport succeeded, albeit on his third carry. More importantly, Pittsburgh media maven Rocco DeMaro says Davenport is likely to be the primary ball carrier if Fast Willie Parker gets hurt. Combine this news with his goal-line potential, Davenport is turning into one of the best backups in football to own.

Recommendation; Should be owned in all leagues

Mike Anderson, Ravens - We've handed Musa Smith a lot of love in this space, but Mike Anderson got his most extended work of the year after Smith fumbled Sunday against Carolina. Anderson only gained seven yards on six carries, but he's worth a look in deeper leagues. Jamal Lewis has apparently lost favor in Baltimore, especially in passing situations.

Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues

Noah Herron and Vernand Morency, Packers - Ahman Green returned to practice Monday and is expected to start again this week. That leaves Herron and Morency battling for backup snaps. Morency is more explosive and offers a better change of pace to Green than Herron, who is a plodder. Morency's fumbling problem needs to be corrected, though. Keep an eye on who gets more carries this week. While it may seem like a waste of time to chase the Green Bay backfield on the wire, their zone blocking scheme has taken hold and Green is a huge injury risk. My money is on Morency long-term.

Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues

Curtis Martin, Jets - Eric Mangini was the defensive coordinator facing the Jets in Curtis Martin's last game. Martin was held to 29 yards on 15 carries, then underwent "arthroscopic" knee surgery that he still hasn't recovered from. No one wants Martin's career to end with that effort.

Martin will stay on the PUP list for at least two more weeks to attempt to get his knee right. This is a bad sign. He's had 10 months to get ready to practice and still isn't ready. Perhaps he'll practice and provide an emotional lift later this season at the Meadowlands, but the odds on Martin giving fantasy owners a similar boost are long.

Recommendation: Stay away

Jerome Harrison, Browns - We keep hearing how Reuben Droughns' shoulder injury is worse than he's letting on. Droughns, who has worn down at the end of every season, may not make it to December. By then, the Browns should give Harrison a shot at serious carries.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Quarterbacks

Alex Smith, 49ers - One of the most underrated players in the NFL was last year's No. 1 pick. Alex Smith is certainly among the most improved players in the league. Fantasy football owners value consistency and Smith has been a model of it. Throw out his odious Week 4 bomb at Kansas City and Smith has between 15-19 fantasy points in ever game. He's topped 200 yards four times and thrown for a score in five of his six starts. It doesn't hurt that San Francisco is often playing from behind, but Smith's attempts-per-game aren't much higher than the league average.

The 49ers have a bye, then head to Chicago. I suspect many owners will drop him. If you are looking for a QB2/3 with an eye on the fantasy playoffs (Smith has Green Bay, Seattle, Arizona in Weeks 14-16), Smith is a passable backup to stash. After one of the worst quarterback seasons in NFL history, Smith looks like a keeper.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

J.P. Losman, Bills - Losman is serviceable against below-average defenses. In Weeks 9-11, he faces Green Bay, Indianapolis, and Houston. A three-game stretch doesn't get any easier, so he's a fine short-term QB2 pickup if you need relief.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Joey Harrington, Dolphins - With a quarter left in an ugly, windy game at the Meadowlands, I was cursing myself for highly recommending Joey Harrington. I'm coming up on my three-year anniversary of working full-time at Rotoworld. Had I learned nothing?

Harrington then caught fire by turning the game into the Wes Welker show, leading the Dolphins on two scoring drives and finishing with respectable numbers: 266 yards, one score, and two picks. If Randy McMichael hadn't dropped a wide open touchdown, Harrington would have enjoyed a solid fantasy day.

Playing Harrington is risky, but this week's matchup is even better. The Packers have no depth in the secondary and Miami has enough weapons to expose them, especially if Marty Booker returns this week. Expect another solid effort, which should mean Harrington will remain the team's quarterback indefinitely.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

Trent Green, Chiefs - Green probably won't be a huge difference maker when he returns. The offensive line will expose the 36-year old to further injury. In deep leagues however, Green's mid-November matchups against Miami and Oakland look enticing enough to stash him in deep leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Jay Cutler, Broncos - The Broncos are tied for 31st in the league in points scored. A few weeks ago, news leaked out that Jake Plummer would only be replaced if he implodes. He's not quite there, but it's closer than most observers think. Denver's 4-1 record is masking major problems and Mike Shanahan's playcalling belies a lack of confidence in his signal caller. If Denver doesn't start scoring soon, a change at quarterback wouldn't be a surprise.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Kyle Boller, Ravens - There's no sense owning Baltimore's backup in 12-team fantasy leagues, no matter how many tipped passes he throws for scores. Boller is among the most likely backups to get more starts because of Steve McNair's injury history. He's worth a look in deep 2 QB leagues only.

Recommendation: Stay away

Vince Young, Texans - Young took advantage of a surprisingly tame Washington defense in his first professional victory. Now the rookie has a bye week to get ready for the Texans. He's a fine pickup if you are looking for a Week 8 option. Just don't plan to use him after that … at least until the Titans play Houston again.

Recommendation: Worth owning for Week 8

Jason Campbell, Redskins - Mark Brunell's ninth life is just about up. The highest paid coaching staff in the NFL couldn't beat Tennessee at home. Think there are too many cooks in the kitchen?

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Marques Tuiasosopo, Raiders - Andrew Walter looks like a prototypical NFL quarterback until the ball comes out of hands. Where the ball goes after Walter's release is a mystery on par with what Alvis Whitted is still doing in the NFL. No quarterback could salvage these Raiders, but a player with mobility like Tuiasosopo may have a better shot.

Recommendation: Learn how to spell his last name correctly just in case.

Wide Receivers

Eric Parker, Chargers - Parker is a favorite of FootballOutsiders and KC Joyner, who value per-play efficiency and great hands over the occasional long gainer. Marty Schottenheimer and Philip Rivers are becoming believers as well. With Keenan McCardell slowing down, Parker has a real chance to raise his performance to a 900-1,000-yard receiver. He's the best wideout San Diego has; Pick him up if available.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Michael Clayton, Bucs - It's depressing that Clayton is available in more than 60% of leagues out there. I drafted him hoping for WR3 numbers in many leagues, but he's been a huge disappointment, along with most Bucs not named Galloway.

Clayton showed a pulse Sunday by catching five passes and a touchdown against the Bengals. He's a heady, emotional player who may have needed a boost of confidence, so perhaps this effort will get him on track. The biggest reason to like Clayton is that Bruce Gradkowski's average arm isn't going to be stretching the field. The team will look to Clayton to work the middle of the field and it's easy to see workmanlike PPR numbers from him if Jon Gruden insists on passing 40 times a game. The 2004 Clayton is buried in there somewhere.

Recommendation: Worth owning in all leagues

Mark Clayton, Ravens - Clayton's two tipped touchdowns were fluky. His ten pass targets weren't, but they may have been a product of Kyle Boller taking over for Steve McNair. McNair prefers Derrick Mason, while Boller clearly trusts Clayton. McNair is likely to get hurt again, but Clayton isn't likely to provide consistent value until that happens.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

Samie Parker, Chiefs- Its rare to find an explosive third-year receiver with back-to-back five catch games on the waiver wire. Parker and Eddie Kennison are basically receivers 1 and 1A in Kansas City.

Recommendation:Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Arnaz Battle, 49ers - Battle is the new Dennis Northcutt, except he occasionally scores. The starter for San Francisco is good for between 3-5 catches every week, without great yardage. That makes him a quality WR5 type for your bench.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

Joe Jurevicius, Browns - With the old Dennis Northcutt at less than 100%, Jurevicius may move into the starting lineup this week for the Browns. Cleveland has a tough schedule and Jurevicius has a long injury history, but he'll be a big part of the offense.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Wes Welker, Dolphins - Last week's Wired special was quiet against the Jets until a big fourth quarter that left Welker with six catches and 56 yards. Welker has more catches than any NFL receiver without a touchdown this season. His value doesn't change much if Marty Booker returns because rookie Derek Hagan was playing on the outside anyway.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Derek Hagan, Dolphins - If Marty Booker is out this week, Hagan is a decent emergency option against the Packers. He was targeted often against New York and could have possibly topped 100 yards if he didn't suffer two drops.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Chad Jackson, Patriots - New England probably spent the bye week figuring out ways to get their rookie second-rounder more involved in the offense. He's only a consideration in keeper leagues or very deep re-drafts, but Jackson could have value down the stretch.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues


Tight Ends

Alex Smith, Bucs - Two weeks, two touchdowns! One more good week and Smith will graduate from Waiver Wired, even though he's still only owned in a third of all leagues.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars - Jacksonville may have spent the bye week phasing George Wrighster out of the passing game.

Recommendation: Worth a look in all leagues

Jerramy Stevens, Seahawks - Stevens should make his first start this week and is likely to be a top-15 tight end for the rest of the year.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues
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