Lumps of Coal
It's too bad fantasy championship weekend couldn't have come last week. Between
Peyton Manning,
Carson Palmer,
Rudi Johnson,
Chad Johnson,
Marvin Harrison,
Reggie Wayne,
T.J. Houshmandzadeh,
Joseph Addai, and the kickers, every single championship game in fantasydom would have been hanging on the Monday night game, which would have provided some high drama.
Tony Romo,
Jeff Garcia,
Chad Pennington, and
Joey Harrington don't really provide the same luster.
Almost every pick either directly or indirectly references DVOA, Football Outsiders' flagship stat that evaluates players and teams based not on their total output but on the quality of their play compared to the rest of the NFL's quality of play in similar situations. All rankings are in DVOA, not the official rankings based on yards. DVOA is more predictive of future success than anything else out there, and this column applies that predictive power not to figuring out who will win real football games, which is what DVOA was created to do, but to help you win fantasy football games. Footballoutsiders.com has a
much more thorough explanation of how DVOA works.
QUARTERBACKS Start Chris Weinke at Atlanta -- You could do worse. The Panthers are a wideout-centric team, and the Falcons are terrible at defending against wide receivers, never mind
DeAngelo Hall's Pro Bowl election.
Marc Bulger vs. Washington -- Just because they stymied the Saints for one week, I don't believe the Redskins league-worst pass defense has turned the corner. This could be shootout given that the Rams have the league's worst overall defense (and getting worse).
Jeff Garcia at Dallas -- The Cowboys pass defense has come off the rails of late, and it's now a distinct weakness relative to the run defense. That means the best way the Eagles can utilize their best playmaker,
Brian Westbrook, is to throw him the ball. Garcia owners should be licking their chops at that thought.
Sit Trent Green at Oakland -- I've written several times about the surprisingly good Oakland defense. They're particularly excellent against #1 receivers and tight ends, so however they treat
Tony Gonzalez, they should be able to shut him down, leaving Green little to work with.
David Carr vs. Indianapolis -- "Three yards and a cloud of dust" is now the description of the Texans passing game. The three yards part is a quick out to
Andre Johnson that strikes fear in the heart of no one, and the could of dust comes up when Carr is flattened by
Dwight Freeney and
Robert Mathis.
Tony Romo vs. Philadelphia -- Back on earth, Romo is making some rookieish mistakes and generally failing to live up to his messiah billing. The improving Eagles pass defense should keep applying pressure to the Romo bandwagon.
RUNNING BACKS Start Travis Henry at Buffalo -- The second worst run defense in the league should be enough to cure his ailing ankle.
Edgerrin James at San Francisco -- I've been down on James all year, because he's been unproductive. But as
Aaron Schatz pointed out this week, it's never been because he's bad, it's his offensive line. Well, that's better, and the 49ers run defense is still bad.
Shaun Alexander vs. San Diego -- Remember when everyone thought Alexander should be the top pick in the fantasy draft this year? Good times. If you're in a championship game this year and have Alexander on your team, you probably picked him up in a mid-season trade for
Ronnie Brown. He's a very ordinary back this year on a very ordinary Seattle offense, but the Chargers have been struggling stopping the run ever since
Tatum Bell busted a 51-yarder against them two weeks ago.
Sit Jamal Lewis at Pittsburgh -- Lewis remains overrated. The defense is what earned Baltimore the division championship; the rush offense has been below average. Pittsburgh's defense has come back together, and it's now #3 against the run.
Warrick Dunn vs. Carolina -- He's still hobbling a bit, and the Panthers have a top-10 rush defense, so there's no reason to expect any better this week than what Dunn has done the last few.
Corey Dillon at Jacksonville -- The Jaguars are good at every kind of defense, although they're outrageously inconsistent. Call it a hunch, but I just think Bill Belichick will keep the ball in
Tom Brady's hands against the Jaguars.
WIDE RECEIVERS Start Bernard Berrian at Detroit -- You never know what you're going to get from Berrian, because he's a deep threat receiver whose production is at the whim of
Rex Grossman. But Grossman is generally a good quarterback against bad defenses, and the Lions have bad defense in spades.
Mark Clayton at Pittsburgh -- Clayton is another wildly inconsistent receiver, but the Steelers are bad against wide receivers this year.
Derrick Mason may not play, so Clayton could thrive in an expanded role.
Plaxico Burress vs. New Orleans -- This is the latest installment of our weekly feature, "Start the #1 receiver playing the Saints."
Sit Drew Bennett at Buffalo -- The Bills have a surprisingly solid pass defense, particularly against #1 receivers. Don't expect too much out of the Titans passing game.
Chad Johnson at Denver -- If you believe the "
Chad Johnson plays his best against the league's top corners" theory, disregard this advice. Otherwise, realize that
Champ Bailey may well be the league's top corner and sit the Bengals' #1 receiver.
Lee Evans vs. Tennessee --
Pacman Jones probably should have been a Pro Bowler this year, and he should be able to control the main weapon the Bills have in the passing game.
TIGHT ENDS Start Kellen Winslow vs. Tampa Bay -- Assuming his knee holds up, Winslow has a chance to have a great game against the atrocious Bucs pass defense, next-to-last in the league against tight ends.
Sit Jason Witten vs. Philadelphia -- The Eagles have been very strong against tight ends this year.
Tony Romo will find a lot more open space around
Terrell Owens and
Terry Glenn.
KICKERS Start Joe Nedney vs. Arizona -- The 49ers have a good chance to move the ball well against the Cardinals, but with an above-average run defense, Arizona may be able to stymie them in the red zone and force a lot of field goals.
Sit Jeff Reed vs. Baltimore -- There aren't a lot of bright prospects for the Steelers to score a lot in this game. They're more likely to give the Ravens short fields with turnovers than they are to get them from Baltimore, so it'll take straightforward good work from the offense to get the Steelers into scoring position.
DEFENSES Start Colts at Houston -- Did someone say something about sacks? Plus
Ron Dayne isn't much of a tackle breaker, so he might make the Indy defense look like a professional defense, even if he doesn't make them look particularly good.
David Carr will take care of that part.
Sit Seahawks at San Diego -- The Chargers offense is not to be stopped. Certainly not by the likes of these Seahawks. The Chargers also have excellent coverage on special teams, so don't expect any big
Nate Burleson kick returns.