Last Minute Decisions
Each week, Last Minute Decisions is your final stopping point before setting your lineups Sunday morning. I'll tell you Game-Time Decisions to watch and analyze some key situations that could make or break your Championship week. Make sure to check the site early Sunday and early Saturday evening for the latest news around the NFL, including each team's inactives.
Important Week 16 Game-Time Decisions Arms Carson Palmer – the rotator-cuff talk can be squashed for now, he will start
Michael Vick – will start, questionable whether his groin will let him finish
Jake Delhomme –
Chris Weinke to start again, snap 18-start losing streak?
Aaron Brooks – didn't work Thursday or Friday but still listed as probable
Wides Peerless Price – practiced Thursday and Friday, he'll start versus Tennessee
Joe Jurevicius – will start, has consistently been
Derek Anderson's top WR
Eric Parker – not expected to play,
Vincent Jackson likely to start at Seattle
Ricky Proehl – hasn't yet made an impact, could step up come playoff time
Laveranues Coles – will start, says he doesn't know who
Vonnie Holliday is
Mark Clayton,
Derrick Mason – upgraded to probable, will start at Pittsburgh
Drew Bennett –
Vince Young's shoulder tiring, so his receivers aren't usable
Backs Thomas Jones – worthy flex at Detroit but
Cedric Benson may finish the game
Ronnie Brown – won't start on Monday night, worth avoiding if at all possible
Carnell Williams –
Michael Pittman to start,
Mike Alstott to carry on goal line
Joseph Addai – Tony Dungy thinks he'll play, check AM inactives to be sure
Warrick Dunn – will start, explosive rook
Jerious Norwood needs more action
Brandon Jacobs – all signs point to him being active, stealing goal-line carries
Cedric Houston – not expected to play, Jets runners worth avoiding @ Miami
Laurence Maroney,
Kevin Faulk – both look likely to play but far from certain
Travis Henry – fully expected to start in an excellent matchup at chilly Buffalo
Ends Eric Johnson – can't see him playing much, cutting into
Vernon Davis's reps
Kellen Winslow – will start, Bucs are second-to-worst defense vs. tight ends
Ben Watson – wouldn't count on him,
David Thomas is now catching passes
Todd Heap – missed practice portions all week but still slated to start @ PIT
Owen Daniels – rookie's production has slacked, didn't work much all week
Bo Scaife – it does not appear that he'll play and not worth starting anyways
Already Ruled Out for Week 16 Arms Charlie Frye – has broken wrist according to some, won't play again in '06
Wides Antonio Bryant – barring a Super Bowl berth, he's suspended through 2007
Darrell Jackson – turf toe allows third receiver
D.J. Hackett to make his mark
Kelley Washington – a deep sleeper to be starting somewhere next season
Randy Moss – where will he be in 2007? Pittsburgh? Green Bay? Miami?
Alvis Whitted,
Jerry Porter –
Johnnie Morant,
Ronald Curry to start tonight
Marty Booker –
Wes Welker will see more looks Monday against the Jets
Joe Horn –
Devery Henderson becoming boom-or-bust week-to-week option
Backs Fred Taylor –
Maurice Jones-Drew set up for a productive day vs. Patriots
Jason Wright –
Reuben Droughns should get 20+ touches against Tampa Bay
Michael Bennett – Bennett can't even stay healthy in a clear-cut backup role
Kevin Jones,
Brian Calhoun – Lions could consider
Adrian Peterson in April
Musa Smith – is unlikely to be any more than a third-down back next season
Clinton Portis – Joe Gibbs planning on a running-back-by-committee for '07
Ends Dallas Clark –
Ben Utecht (seven catches since Week 13) will start at Houston
Championship Week Injury Situations Ronnie Brown (hand)
After the Dolphins took Wednesday off, Brown returned to practice without limits Thursday for the first time since Thanksgiving week and has worked fully ever since. He's wearing a protective pad on his broken left hand that allows him to catch passes but Brown won't start against the Jets on Monday night. While New York's defense has been highly inconsistent against the run, allowing
Ahman Green and
Willis McGahee to run for over 100 yards apiece before bottling up an injured
Chester Taylor (11-38) in Week 15, Brown would be best utilized at a flex spot, if that. It's possible Morris will get goal-line carries so as to lessen the burden on Brown and prevent against re-injury where bodies are flying around and his hand could get stepped on. The Dolphins also may not ask much from Brown in the passing game with Morris and
Travis Minor plenty capable in that area. 12-15 carries and 80 yards would be a reasonable estimate from Brown, but a score might have to come on a long run.
Carson Palmer (shoulder)
This week's stir regarding a possible rotator-cuff injury was caused by an anonymous reader tipping ProFootballTalk.com off that
Carson Palmer may have hurt his shoulder during Monday night's loss to Indianapolis. For those watching, right before halftime Palmer was sacked and ESPN's Tom Jackson reported that Palmer headed to the locker room clutching his arm. In the second half, it appeared for a moment that Palmer would come out at one point (
Anthony Wright was apparently warming up) but there was a delay in the game and Palmer wound up never missing a snap. He took Wednesday's practice off to go for tests, which came back negative. While we may hear some more on this story come the offseason, Palmer will start Sunday at Denver, no questions asked.
Laurence Maroney (?)
Back? Torn rib cartilage? Doghouse? Depends on who you ask. No one seems to know for sure why
Laurence Maroney hasn't played since Week 13, but it appears he's set to return to face the Jaguars, as his bags were packed presumably to make the team flight to Jacksonville on Friday. Maroney isn't a fantasy option in Week 16, but the last two weeks may very well have affected how New England views its running back situation for next season. Prior to Maroney's injury/benching, it appeared
Corey Dillon was a good bet to be cut. But with Maroney either showing he can't stay healthy or in the good graces of the coaching staff, Dillon will probably stick around another year. We may have to wait until 2008 to see Maroney in a full-fledged starting role.
Joseph Addai (ankle)
While Scott Morrow and I were watching the Colts-Bengals' post-game show from our respective spots in the great Midwest, we both heard the same thing come out of Chris Mortensen's mouth:
Tony Dungy just informed me that Joseph Addai suffered a high ankle sprain.
We haven't heard much from Mort since; he hasn't even updated his blog since November 25th. Where are you Mort? He's normally not a false rumor mongerer. What we can count on is Mortensen updating his statement Sunday morning when he breaks his weekly pre-game news. As far as Addai's status, he was able to practice in individual drills Thursday and Dungy announced Friday that he expects his rookie tailback to play at Houston. A Saturday morning column in the Indianapolis Star about
Dominic Rhodes, however, hinted that Addai might be limited in the game. That would make sense, considering the Colts will roll over the Texans and shouldn't need to risk their best running back re-injuring himself. Whether he has a high ankle sprain still is uncertain – the signs say he doesn't – but Addai's status will be a game-time call and we'll be intently watching for Mortensen's Sunday morning update.
Maurice Jones-Drew (healthy) Fred Taylor is out.
LaBrandon Toefield will back up
Maurice Jones-Drew. With that out of the way, let's look at this matchup. Each week, the Boston Herald's Point After blog provides an intense look at what happened on a personal-matchup basis after each Patriots game.
Here's last week's edition. Basically, outside of an impressive early-game sack of
David Carr,
Mike Wright (who took
Vince Wilfork's spot on the nose and will again this week) had trouble. The blog looks at one drive in particular where Wright was taken out of a play by a combination block, pushed seven yards downfield a few snaps later, and pancaked twice more. Wright wasn't frequently exposed other than on the one possession, but keep in mind that this was against the Texans, who currently have three offensive line starters on injured reserve. Jacksonville's vicious run-blocking line could have the Wilfork-less Pats on their heels for an entire game.
Do Not Underestimate The Shotgun Factor In Baltimore
There hasn't been much talk on the
Steve McNair front recently because he wasn't on the injury report, but the possibility remains that Baltimore will use the shotgun formation frequently at Pittsburgh. McNair sustained a cut on his hand last Sunday that forced him from the game for the final three quarters.
Kyle Boller was moving Baltimore's offense, but the real reason McNair didn't reenter is because when he took snaps from center, the cut was re-aggravated. There have been no reports that McNair's hand is fully healed, and there's a possibility the Ravens will avoid taking any chances with a playoff berth already in hand. The shotgun is bad news for
Jamal Lewis. Lewis' first step isn't explosive enough to compensate if he's given the ball five yards in the backfield and it seems
Mike Anderson might work better in that setup. Take
Jonathan Ogden out of the equation and
Joey Porter could present major problems for replacement
Adam Terry, who is considered a good athlete and sound mechanically but doesn't bring nearly the physical game that Ogden does. Porter could get in Terry's head. I expect the Steelers to bring a lot of pressure, making the shotgun even more of a necessity. Lewis could have trouble gaining positive yards at all against Pittsburgh.
Vernand Morency's Future in Green Bay
For those out of the fantasy playoffs, let's take a look ahead. Before Monday night's pass-heavy win,
Vernand Morency was averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry. He scored twice, from 21 and 14 yards out, in Week 15 and has shown tremendous explosion as well as the vision necessary to excel in Green Bay's zone-blocking scheme. Morency needs to improve as a short-yardage runner, but he has the skills to make that progression. With
Ahman Green set for free agency, the Packers could draft a running back in the mid-first or second round and either let him compete with Morency to start or give Morency veteran precedence and all-down duties depending on how ready the rookie is deemed. If the pick is Oklahoma's
Adrian Peterson or Cal's Marshawn Lynch, he might be too good to keep off the field, but a Tony Hunt (Penn State) or Michael Bush (Louisville) could take a while to adjust to the pros. Pending Ahman's status, the opportunity will be there for Morency to start behind Green Bay's promising offensive line in 2007.