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Hache Man · 07-09-07, 05:20 PM

Things looking up for Nelson
There's not much to be gained by studying summer league action in the fantasy arena, so I'll take a look at some guards who should qualify as sleepers heading into the new season. The big stories out of summer league are that Greg Oden is racking up fouls and missed free throws like nobody's business, while Marco Belinelli torched the Hornets for 37 points on 14-of-20 shooting on Saturday. More on him later.

Sleepers – The Guards

Jameer Nelson - Orlando Magic

Nelson was highly disappointing over the last couple years after showing so much promise, but it's possible that his less than stellar play was due to a strained relationship with coach Brian Hill. Now he'll get a fresh perspective on things from Stan Van Gundy, has one of the league's best offensive players to dish to in Rashard Lewis, and should target Dwight Howard, the best young big man in the game, with the rest of his passes. Things are really setting up well for Nelson to have a big year and I think he should be targeted somewhere in the fourth to sixth rounds this season. He could end up being a disappointment again, but the odds are clearly stacked in his favor with the new-look Magic.

Monta Ellis - Golden St. Warriors

I was all set to praise Ellis today, calling him the best sleeper candidate out of all the guards. I still think he's going to be very good and the secret is already out on him anyway, after last year's surprising performance. That said, there are whispers in Golden St. that rookie Marco Belinelli, who scored 37 points on Saturday, is going to challenge Ellis for the starting job. Add to that the rumored concerns about Ellis' choice of friends and their behavior at Warriors' games last year, and he looks like a little less than a sure thing.

We know Ellis can play and we know Don Nelson likes him. What we don't know is whether Nelson will return to coach the team this season (he wants more money, while the Warriors are still paying Mike Montgomery), or what his role will be if Belinelli is really as good as advertised.

But Jason Richardson is now out of the way, which should form a clear path for Ellis to start alongside Baron Davis all season. I'm going to forget about Belinelli for now, and say that Ellis should be at least as good as he was last season, when he averaged 16.5 points, 4.1 assists and 1.7 steals while shooting 47% from the floor. No one is going to sleep on Ellis this season, and how high you want to take him is a personal decision. He came in as the 58th ranked player (cumulatively) and I see no reason why he won't be worth a fourth-round pick this year with Richardson in Charlotte. Then again, there are still several things to be decided in Golden St. in the next few weeks.

Kareem Rush - Indiana Pacers

The Pacers quietly signed shooting guard Kareem Rush last week, and while he's not likely to be a savior for the Pacers, he could play a huge role for a team desperately seeking outside shooting since No. 31 called it a career a few years back. Rush has got an excellent chance to start alongside Jamaal Tinsley, as Mike Dunleavy looks more and more like a career bench player with every year that passes. If Rush has a good training camp, his value will continue to climb, but as of now, he should be a perfect sleeper candidate at the end of your draft. He can bury open threes and put the ball on the floor and drive, as well. He's never really lived up to the hype in his four-year career, but this could be the season he averages 16 points a game and feasts behind the arc.

Rajon Rondo - Boston Celtics

Rondo had several flashes of brilliance last season and now that Delonte West is out of town and Sebastian Telfair is doing everything he can just to stay in the league, the reins should be fully handed to Rondo this year. He led the team in steals and assists as a rookie, and he shouldn't have much problem improving on his 3.8 dimes per game.

He really came on over the team's final 10 games, scoring 11 or more points in eight of them and averaging 13 points, 5.5 assists and 2.5 steals. Of course, that's when the team was supposedly tanking and heading for the Oden-Durant sweepstakes, but those numbers are hard to argue with. He recorded four or more steals eight times last year and flirted with several triple-doubles. Expect him to get into the trip-dub category at least three times in the upcoming season, averaging around 10 points, six dimes and two steals per game. The downside of Rondo is the fact he hit just six 3-pointers last season and shot 41.8% from the floor. While he's never likely to become a 3-point specialist, the rest of his numbers, especially the steals, should give him solid fantasy value. Just don't over pay for him.

Randy Foye - Minnesota Timberwolves

With Mike James back home again in Houston, it appears that Kevin McHale and company are ready to hand the point guard reins to Foye in Minnesota. He showed some promise last year, but it's debatable whether or not he's really an NBA point guard. Foye averaged about 10 points and fewer than three assists and three rebounds last year as a rookie, but should make big strides this season. He also turned it on after the All-Star Break and finished on a high note, scoring a career-high 26 points in the Wolves' final game of the season. He averaged 15.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 0.9 steals over the season's final 10 games and should be an excellent value pick once the top-tier point guards are gone.

Steve Blake - Free Agent

Blake is being pursued by every team in the league needing a point guard, but it sounds like the Lakers and Blazers don't want to give him the full midlevel exception. Blake has proven he can start at point guard in the NBA and be effective, and there's a decent chance he'll end up right back in Denver. Until we know where he's going, there's no way to effectively target his value. But wherever he lands, he'll see plenty of minutes at the one and should make a nice third or fourth fantasy point guard. And he could be a great value pick if he lands a starting job at some point next year.

Tyronn Lue and Speedy Claxton - Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks took point guard Acie Law with the 11th pick in the draft, but I doubt he's ready to run an NBA team at this point – Even one as bad as the Hawks. Speedy Claxton was brought in a year ago to run the offense, but chronic knee problems resulted in a disastrous season for Chris Paul's former backup. I am hearing that Speedy's knee problem has finally been properly diagnosed, and if he's healthy in November, you have to think he's the starter.

However, the most exciting guard possibility as far as a fantasy sleeper in Atlanta is Tyronn Lue. Lue was playing very well last season before suffering injury problems of his own. In 22 regular-season games in November (to start the year) and April (to end it), Lue hit double figures in scoring in all but two of them. His production over the rest of the season was average, at best, as he struggled with hamstring, knee and groin injuries throughout the year. But his stellar play early and late gives him some promise coming into the season if he can stay healthy. That's a big 'if' since he's averaged just 53 games played over the past two seasons. But he is a veteran leader on this Hawks team and Mike Woodson won't hesitate using Lue as his point guard if Speedy isn't up to, um, speed at the start of the season. Lue is the team's best free throw shooter, and while his field goal percentage is a little shaky, he shouldn't hurt your fantasy team anywhere, either.

While neither Hawks guard should be taken until the end of you draft, both players could end up being nice value picks late. Just don't expect any miracles.

Daniel Gibson - Cleveland Cavaliers

Gibson, affectionately known as "Boobie," broke out for the Cavaliers in the playoffs when he scored 31 points and hit 5-of-5 3-pointers to close out the Pistons and advance to the Finals. The bad news is that he only averaged four points per game against the Wizards and Nets in Rounds 1 and 2, but did bounce back to hit double figures in three of the four games the Cavs lost to the Spurs in the Finals.

Gibson showed flashes of his potential throughout the regular season, but never seemed to get comfortable or into a groove as a rookie. There's little doubt his playoff performance against the Pistons did wonders for his confidence, and it's no secret that the Cavs need help at both guard spots. Larry Hughes, Damon Jones and Eric Snow were simply ineffective last year, and Gibson looks like a decent bet to be a starter for this team. If he somehow comes off the bench, he should get at least 30 minutes per game, as he is clearly the team's best outside threat. Like the aforementioned players, don't over pay for Gibson. But give him a look after the middle rounds of your draft if you need a 3-point shooter.

Clippers point guard - Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have a big need for a point guard after Shaun Livingston's injury last season. Sam Cassell is still a valuable veteran for the team, but they need some youth to run the point. There's still a chance they'll bring back Jason Hart, who filled in admirably last season when Cassell and Livingston were both down, or they could bring in another free agent. Until we know who the Clippers' point guard is going to be, it's tough to say much else here. However, whoever lands the job will likely qualify as a sleeper.

Jordan Farmar - Los Angeles Lakers

Farmar should be locked into the starting role for the Lakers after Smush Parker was unceremoniously dumped at the end of last year. Parker's still technically with the team as of now, but not for much longer. The Lakers are still going to try to find a more seasoned point guard with some triangle experience, but there's a good chance the job will land squarely on Farmar's shoulders, simply because they don't have other options. Javaris Crittenton is now with the Lakers as well, and has been playing better than Farmar in the summer league. But a rookie point guard is the last thing Mitch Kupchak, Phil Jackson or Kobe Bryant wants to see in November. Farmar's summer league experience has not been good and he's really turning the ball over. Add to that his season averages of 4.4 points and 1.9 assists last year, and there's not much to get excited about. But he will probably have some fantasy value as long as he is the starting point guard for the Lakers.

07-09-07, 05:20 PM	#5
Hache Man Moderator On The Rays' Wagon Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida Posts: 43,132	Re: NBA News/NBA Fantasy News 2006/2007 Things looking up for Nelson There's not much to be gained by studying summer league action in the fantasy arena, so I'll take a look at some guards who should qualify as sleepers heading into the new season. The big stories out of summer league are that Greg Oden is racking up fouls and missed free throws like nobody's business, while Marco Belinelli torched the Hornets for 37 points on 14-of-20 shooting on Saturday. More on him later. Sleepers – The Guards Jameer Nelson - Orlando Magic Nelson was highly disappointing over the last couple years after showing so much promise, but it's possible that his less than stellar play was due to a strained relationship with coach Brian Hill. Now he'll get a fresh perspective on things from Stan Van Gundy, has one of the league's best offensive players to dish to in Rashard Lewis, and should target Dwight Howard, the best young big man in the game, with the rest of his passes. Things are really setting up well for Nelson to have a big year and I think he should be targeted somewhere in the fourth to sixth rounds this season. He could end up being a disappointment again, but the odds are clearly stacked in his favor with the new-look Magic. Monta Ellis - Golden St. Warriors I was all set to praise Ellis today, calling him the best sleeper candidate out of all the guards. I still think he's going to be very good and the secret is already out on him anyway, after last year's surprising performance. That said, there are whispers in Golden St. that rookie Marco Belinelli, who scored 37 points on Saturday, is going to challenge Ellis for the starting job. Add to that the rumored concerns about Ellis' choice of friends and their behavior at Warriors' games last year, and he looks like a little less than a sure thing. We know Ellis can play and we know Don Nelson likes him. What we don't know is whether Nelson will return to coach the team this season (he wants more money, while the Warriors are still paying Mike Montgomery), or what his role will be if Belinelli is really as good as advertised. But Jason Richardson is now out of the way, which should form a clear path for Ellis to start alongside Baron Davis all season. I'm going to forget about Belinelli for now, and say that Ellis should be at least as good as he was last season, when he averaged 16.5 points, 4.1 assists and 1.7 steals while shooting 47% from the floor. No one is going to sleep on Ellis this season, and how high you want to take him is a personal decision. He came in as the 58th ranked player (cumulatively) and I see no reason why he won't be worth a fourth-round pick this year with Richardson in Charlotte. Then again, there are still several things to be decided in Golden St. in the next few weeks. Kareem Rush - Indiana Pacers The Pacers quietly signed shooting guard Kareem Rush last week, and while he's not likely to be a savior for the Pacers, he could play a huge role for a team desperately seeking outside shooting since No. 31 called it a career a few years back. Rush has got an excellent chance to start alongside Jamaal Tinsley, as Mike Dunleavy looks more and more like a career bench player with every year that passes. If Rush has a good training camp, his value will continue to climb, but as of now, he should be a perfect sleeper candidate at the end of your draft. He can bury open threes and put the ball on the floor and drive, as well. He's never really lived up to the hype in his four-year career, but this could be the season he averages 16 points a game and feasts behind the arc. Rajon Rondo - Boston Celtics Rondo had several flashes of brilliance last season and now that Delonte West is out of town and Sebastian Telfair is doing everything he can just to stay in the league, the reins should be fully handed to Rondo this year. He led the team in steals and assists as a rookie, and he shouldn't have much problem improving on his 3.8 dimes per game. He really came on over the team's final 10 games, scoring 11 or more points in eight of them and averaging 13 points, 5.5 assists and 2.5 steals. Of course, that's when the team was supposedly tanking and heading for the Oden-Durant sweepstakes, but those numbers are hard to argue with. He recorded four or more steals eight times last year and flirted with several triple-doubles. Expect him to get into the trip-dub category at least three times in the upcoming season, averaging around 10 points, six dimes and two steals per game. The downside of Rondo is the fact he hit just six 3-pointers last season and shot 41.8% from the floor. While he's never likely to become a 3-point specialist, the rest of his numbers, especially the steals, should give him solid fantasy value. Just don't over pay for him. Randy Foye - Minnesota Timberwolves With Mike James back home again in Houston, it appears that Kevin McHale and company are ready to hand the point guard reins to Foye in Minnesota. He showed some promise last year, but it's debatable whether or not he's really an NBA point guard. Foye averaged about 10 points and fewer than three assists and three rebounds last year as a rookie, but should make big strides this season. He also turned it on after the All-Star Break and finished on a high note, scoring a career-high 26 points in the Wolves' final game of the season. He averaged 15.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 0.9 steals over the season's final 10 games and should be an excellent value pick once the top-tier point guards are gone. Steve Blake - Free Agent Blake is being pursued by every team in the league needing a point guard, but it sounds like the Lakers and Blazers don't want to give him the full midlevel exception. Blake has proven he can start at point guard in the NBA and be effective, and there's a decent chance he'll end up right back in Denver. Until we know where he's going, there's no way to effectively target his value. But wherever he lands, he'll see plenty of minutes at the one and should make a nice third or fourth fantasy point guard. And he could be a great value pick if he lands a starting job at some point next year. Tyronn Lue and Speedy Claxton - Atlanta Hawks The Hawks took point guard Acie Law with the 11th pick in the draft, but I doubt he's ready to run an NBA team at this point – Even one as bad as the Hawks. Speedy Claxton was brought in a year ago to run the offense, but chronic knee problems resulted in a disastrous season for Chris Paul's former backup. I am hearing that Speedy's knee problem has finally been properly diagnosed, and if he's healthy in November, you have to think he's the starter. However, the most exciting guard possibility as far as a fantasy sleeper in Atlanta is Tyronn Lue. Lue was playing very well last season before suffering injury problems of his own. In 22 regular-season games in November (to start the year) and April (to end it), Lue hit double figures in scoring in all but two of them. His production over the rest of the season was average, at best, as he struggled with hamstring, knee and groin injuries throughout the year. But his stellar play early and late gives him some promise coming into the season if he can stay healthy. That's a big 'if' since he's averaged just 53 games played over the past two seasons. But he is a veteran leader on this Hawks team and Mike Woodson won't hesitate using Lue as his point guard if Speedy isn't up to, um, speed at the start of the season. Lue is the team's best free throw shooter, and while his field goal percentage is a little shaky, he shouldn't hurt your fantasy team anywhere, either. While neither Hawks guard should be taken until the end of you draft, both players could end up being nice value picks late. Just don't expect any miracles. Daniel Gibson - Cleveland Cavaliers Gibson, affectionately known as "Boobie," broke out for the Cavaliers in the playoffs when he scored 31 points and hit 5-of-5 3-pointers to close out the Pistons and advance to the Finals. The bad news is that he only averaged four points per game against the Wizards and Nets in Rounds 1 and 2, but did bounce back to hit double figures in three of the four games the Cavs lost to the Spurs in the Finals. Gibson showed flashes of his potential throughout the regular season, but never seemed to get comfortable or into a groove as a rookie. There's little doubt his playoff performance against the Pistons did wonders for his confidence, and it's no secret that the Cavs need help at both guard spots. Larry Hughes, Damon Jones and Eric Snow were simply ineffective last year, and Gibson looks like a decent bet to be a starter for this team. If he somehow comes off the bench, he should get at least 30 minutes per game, as he is clearly the team's best outside threat. Like the aforementioned players, don't over pay for Gibson. But give him a look after the middle rounds of your draft if you need a 3-point shooter. Clippers point guard - Los Angeles Clippers The Clippers have a big need for a point guard after Shaun Livingston's injury last season. Sam Cassell is still a valuable veteran for the team, but they need some youth to run the point. There's still a chance they'll bring back Jason Hart, who filled in admirably last season when Cassell and Livingston were both down, or they could bring in another free agent. Until we know who the Clippers' point guard is going to be, it's tough to say much else here. However, whoever lands the job will likely qualify as a sleeper. Jordan Farmar - Los Angeles Lakers Farmar should be locked into the starting role for the Lakers after Smush Parker was unceremoniously dumped at the end of last year. Parker's still technically with the team as of now, but not for much longer. The Lakers are still going to try to find a more seasoned point guard with some triangle experience, but there's a good chance the job will land squarely on Farmar's shoulders, simply because they don't have other options. Javaris Crittenton is now with the Lakers as well, and has been playing better than Farmar in the summer league. But a rookie point guard is the last thing Mitch Kupchak, Phil Jackson or Kobe Bryant wants to see in November. Farmar's summer league experience has not been good and he's really turning the ball over. Add to that his season averages of 4.4 points and 1.9 assists last year, and there's not much to get excited about. But he will probably have some fantasy value as long as he is the starting point guard for the Lakers.