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Hache Man · 07-13-07, 09:50 PM

More Magic From Wandy?
Welcome back from the All-Star break! It was painful to not check fantasy stats for three days, wasn't it?

Before we get to the waiver pickups, we should probably get on the same page about the dollar values I use in this column. Here's how I do it: I assume a $100 budget to spend on free agents all season long. So when I say Julio Lugo is worth $12, I'm recommending you spend 12% of your budget on him if he's on your AL-only waiver wire. I think the steals are worth that. If you actually operate under this free agent budget situation, you'll have to dole it out carefully to only a handful of much-needed players all year long.

Many of you couldn't care less about dollar amounts, because you don't bid to make your pickups. I'm with you; I actually prefer it that way. In that case the dollar values are still useful to gauge how valuable I think these free agents are relative to one another. The values also hint at whether the player is worthy of a high priority waiver spot. If I put Tim Lincecum at $55 in NL-only, then yeah, I'd use a #1 pick on him.

One other note – I definitely appreciate all the email I receive from you guys and gals. I read them all, even the negative ones. It's very cool to me to reach a wide audience. I used to try to reply to every email but now it would probably take me two hours a day. I get a lot of fantasy advice questions that I just can't tackle in a reasonable amount of time. Occasionally I am able to shoot a reply to the less elaborate questions. Otherwise I'll just note what you consider hot topics and try to cover those here or on my blog.

American League

Julio Lugo, SS, BOS – After hitting rock bottom, Lugo finally started to show some signs of life in July. It wouldn't be a total shock to see Lugo hit around .280 from here on out and steal another 20 bags. Unfortunately, he probably won't be sniffing the leadoff spot again. AL: $12, Mixed: $1.

Joe Saunders, SP, LAA – There are rumblings that Saunders could replace Ervin Santana in the Halos' rotation. He's shown excellent command in Triple A with a 3.4 K/BB ratio, but he's been very hittable (almost ten hits per nine innings). That level of command has not translated to the bigs yet and he might top out as a #4 starter. He could be worth spotting in here and there but don't be fooled by this year's pretty 2.92 big league ERA. AL: $4, Mixed: No.

Garrett Jones, DH, MIN – Jones is a 26-year-old, 245 lb. first baseman. He's not really a prospect at this point, but he does have decent power. He doesn't draw walks, so his game is one-dimensional. Jones seems to have overcome his problems hitting lefties; he's on his third season at Triple A. Ron Gardenhire's goal is to give him some looks in the DH spot until the Twins acquire someone better. AL-only players could gamble a buck on his OK power. AL: $1, Mixed: No.

Matt Garza, SP, MIN – Back on June 29th, I pegged Garza at $3 as he didn't have a rotation spot at the time. Now he's got eight scoreless innings under his belt and he does have a spot. I think he'll be more helpful to the Twins than your fantasy team. I'm not expecting much better than a 4.50 ERA, which could still be useful in AL-only. I think last year's prospect hype might be causing some people to overdo it. AL: $8, Mixed: No.

Adam Jones, OF, SEA – There was a false alarm on Wednesday, as some reports had Jones getting the call and taking over right field for the Mariners on Thursday. Now word is that it will happen "soon." OK. Jones is a young stud in the Carlos Beltran/Vernon Wells mold, and it will be a joy to watch him and Ichiro chasing down flies. Just remember that the kid hasn't yet reached his 22nd birthday. He's got power, speed, and defense, but strikes out plenty. I am looking for a .250 average, maybe 12 home runs, and not too many steals until he learns the league. AL: $10, Mixed: No.

Jonny Gomes, OF, TBA – I have long been a Gomes fan, tantalized when he hit 21 HR in 348 at-bats as a rookie. After a lost 2006 that ended in shoulder surgery, Gomes seems fully recovered. He's back on that 30 HR pace (if he were to amass 550 at-bats that is). He's playing every day now after an earlier minor league stint this year. Gomes has hit .333/.370/.679 with 7 HR in 84 at-bats since June began, so pick him up already! Seriously, stop reading this and snag him. AL: $20, Mixed: $8.

National League

Rafael Soriano, RP, ATL – It's been an odd year for Soriano, and his 2.79 ERA and 0.83 WHIP don't tell the whole story. Basically he was untouchable in May but that was between a mediocre April and June. His strikeouts are lower than we're used to, and he's been a tad homer-prone. However, his control has been very good, back to his 2003 level. While Soriano may be inconsistent, Bob Wickman is simply bad. This is a closer turnover waiting to happen, so be on the ball. NL: $16, Mixed: $10.

Geovany Soto, C, CHN – Soto will join the Cubs as their third catcher today. He's having a breakout season of sorts, hitting .341/.412/.584 in 226 Triple A at-bats. Keep in mind, though, that that was his third shot at the level. Catchers are often late bloomers, so Soto may yet carve out a career as the Cubs' regular catcher. However, I think it would be overly optimistic to expect him to rake in his first extended big league trial. NL: $10, Mixed: $1.

Chris Burke, OF, HOU – Here's a little Chris Burke history for you:

October 2006: Surgery to repair torn labrum.
December 2006: Willy Taveras traded to Rockies, opening up full-time center fielder job for Burke.
April 26, 2007: Despite struggling defensively, Burke gets vote of confidence from GM Tim Purpura.
April 27: Purpura calls up Hunter Pence, who replaces Burke in center.
May 10: Burke gets his first start since Pence's recall and homers.
May 11: Burke is demoted to Triple A, ponders possibility of a trade.
May 12-June 2: Posts a .670 OPS in Triple A.
June 3: Recalled to Majors.

It was a confusing chain of events to be sure. Burke hasn't hit much since his return save his last two games against the Mets. Purpura is now talking about giving Burke another shot as the second baseman, with Craig Biggio's milestone out of the way. As a regular Burke would offer some steals and maybe a few homers. NL: $7, Mixed: No.

Wandy Rodriguez, SP, HOU – Rodriguez boasts strong peripherals and quietly has the tenth-best WHIP among starters in the National League. He's upped his strikeout rate while slicing his walk rate and hasn't been scored upon since June 26th. Wandy's ERA had been lagging behind his other stats until those last two scoreless starts. He's been consistent with his newfound command this year, and is worth owning in normal-sized mixed leagues for the strikeouts and WHIP. He will have a five-run stinker here or there, so you have to be in it for the long haul. NL: $22, Mixed: $10.

Lastings Milledge, OF, NYN – A constant theme throughout Milledge's young career has been controversy. From spiking John Schuerholz's son to high-fiving fans to the profane rap song, he's consistently made headlines for the wrong reasons. None of that matters in fantasy baseball, though, and he hasn't had attitude problems this year to the best of my knowledge. He remains a .290-hitting, 20/20 bat at age 22. He'll have to hit the ground running to overtake Shawn Green once Moises Alou returns. NL: $15, Mixed: $3.

Tom Gordon, RP, PHI – Flash is rehabbing his sore shoulder, and all was going well until he got tattooed by rookie ball hitters on Wednesday. He's further along than Brett Myers, but I wouldn't count on Gordon for too many more saves this year. NL: $10, Mixed: $1.

Shane Youman, SP, PIT – With Zach Duke on the shelf, Youman gets to stay in the Pirates' rotation. Both his starts this year have been solid, but the southpaw was very hittable in Triple A before that. He's a bad choice in any league. NL: No, Mixed: No.

Kip Wells, SP, STL – After the Kipper tossed 11 sparkling innings in relief, Tony La Russa decided to move him back into the rotation. The move could be short-lived as Chris Carpenter is just a couple of weeks away. Unless Wells solves his persistent control problem, you can ignore him in all but the deepest NL-only leagues. NL: $1, Mixed: No.

Tim Redding, SP, WAS – Redding, the quintessential replacement level pitcher, could stick in the Nats' rotation until Micah Bowie returns. I can't decide which pitcher excites me more. Note: that was sarcasm. Neither have any business on any fantasy roster. NL: No, Mixed: No.

07-13-07, 09:50 PM	#246
Hache Man "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida Posts: 64,496	Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 More Magic From Wandy? Welcome back from the All-Star break! It was painful to not check fantasy stats for three days, wasn't it? Before we get to the waiver pickups, we should probably get on the same page about the dollar values I use in this column. Here's how I do it: I assume a $100 budget to spend on free agents all season long. So when I say Julio Lugo is worth $12, I'm recommending you spend 12% of your budget on him if he's on your AL-only waiver wire. I think the steals are worth that. If you actually operate under this free agent budget situation, you'll have to dole it out carefully to only a handful of much-needed players all year long. Many of you couldn't care less about dollar amounts, because you don't bid to make your pickups. I'm with you; I actually prefer it that way. In that case the dollar values are still useful to gauge how valuable I think these free agents are relative to one another. The values also hint at whether the player is worthy of a high priority waiver spot. If I put Tim Lincecum at $55 in NL-only, then yeah, I'd use a #1 pick on him. One other note – I definitely appreciate all the email I receive from you guys and gals. I read them all, even the negative ones. It's very cool to me to reach a wide audience. I used to try to reply to every email but now it would probably take me two hours a day. I get a lot of fantasy advice questions that I just can't tackle in a reasonable amount of time. Occasionally I am able to shoot a reply to the less elaborate questions. Otherwise I'll just note what you consider hot topics and try to cover those here or on my blog. American League Julio Lugo, SS, BOS – After hitting rock bottom, Lugo finally started to show some signs of life in July. It wouldn't be a total shock to see Lugo hit around .280 from here on out and steal another 20 bags. Unfortunately, he probably won't be sniffing the leadoff spot again. AL: $12, Mixed: $1. Joe Saunders, SP, LAA – There are rumblings that Saunders could replace Ervin Santana in the Halos' rotation. He's shown excellent command in Triple A with a 3.4 K/BB ratio, but he's been very hittable (almost ten hits per nine innings). That level of command has not translated to the bigs yet and he might top out as a #4 starter. He could be worth spotting in here and there but don't be fooled by this year's pretty 2.92 big league ERA. AL: $4, Mixed: No. Garrett Jones, DH, MIN – Jones is a 26-year-old, 245 lb. first baseman. He's not really a prospect at this point, but he does have decent power. He doesn't draw walks, so his game is one-dimensional. Jones seems to have overcome his problems hitting lefties; he's on his third season at Triple A. Ron Gardenhire's goal is to give him some looks in the DH spot until the Twins acquire someone better. AL-only players could gamble a buck on his OK power. AL: $1, Mixed: No. Matt Garza, SP, MIN – Back on June 29th, I pegged Garza at $3 as he didn't have a rotation spot at the time. Now he's got eight scoreless innings under his belt and he does have a spot. I think he'll be more helpful to the Twins than your fantasy team. I'm not expecting much better than a 4.50 ERA, which could still be useful in AL-only. I think last year's prospect hype might be causing some people to overdo it. AL: $8, Mixed: No. Adam Jones, OF, SEA – There was a false alarm on Wednesday, as some reports had Jones getting the call and taking over right field for the Mariners on Thursday. Now word is that it will happen "soon." OK. Jones is a young stud in the Carlos Beltran/Vernon Wells mold, and it will be a joy to watch him and Ichiro chasing down flies. Just remember that the kid hasn't yet reached his 22nd birthday. He's got power, speed, and defense, but strikes out plenty. I am looking for a .250 average, maybe 12 home runs, and not too many steals until he learns the league. AL: $10, Mixed: No. Jonny Gomes, OF, TBA – I have long been a Gomes fan, tantalized when he hit 21 HR in 348 at-bats as a rookie. After a lost 2006 that ended in shoulder surgery, Gomes seems fully recovered. He's back on that 30 HR pace (if he were to amass 550 at-bats that is). He's playing every day now after an earlier minor league stint this year. Gomes has hit .333/.370/.679 with 7 HR in 84 at-bats since June began, so pick him up already! Seriously, stop reading this and snag him. AL: $20, Mixed: $8. National League Rafael Soriano, RP, ATL – It's been an odd year for Soriano, and his 2.79 ERA and 0.83 WHIP don't tell the whole story. Basically he was untouchable in May but that was between a mediocre April and June. His strikeouts are lower than we're used to, and he's been a tad homer-prone. However, his control has been very good, back to his 2003 level. While Soriano may be inconsistent, Bob Wickman is simply bad. This is a closer turnover waiting to happen, so be on the ball. NL: $16, Mixed: $10. Geovany Soto, C, CHN – Soto will join the Cubs as their third catcher today. He's having a breakout season of sorts, hitting .341/.412/.584 in 226 Triple A at-bats. Keep in mind, though, that that was his third shot at the level. Catchers are often late bloomers, so Soto may yet carve out a career as the Cubs' regular catcher. However, I think it would be overly optimistic to expect him to rake in his first extended big league trial. NL: $10, Mixed: $1. Chris Burke, OF, HOU – Here's a little Chris Burke history for you: October 2006: Surgery to repair torn labrum. December 2006: Willy Taveras traded to Rockies, opening up full-time center fielder job for Burke. April 26, 2007: Despite struggling defensively, Burke gets vote of confidence from GM Tim Purpura. April 27: Purpura calls up Hunter Pence, who replaces Burke in center. May 10: Burke gets his first start since Pence's recall and homers. May 11: Burke is demoted to Triple A, ponders possibility of a trade. May 12-June 2: Posts a .670 OPS in Triple A. June 3: Recalled to Majors. It was a confusing chain of events to be sure. Burke hasn't hit much since his return save his last two games against the Mets. Purpura is now talking about giving Burke another shot as the second baseman, with Craig Biggio's milestone out of the way. As a regular Burke would offer some steals and maybe a few homers. NL: $7, Mixed: No. Wandy Rodriguez, SP, HOU – Rodriguez boasts strong peripherals and quietly has the tenth-best WHIP among starters in the National League. He's upped his strikeout rate while slicing his walk rate and hasn't been scored upon since June 26th. Wandy's ERA had been lagging behind his other stats until those last two scoreless starts. He's been consistent with his newfound command this year, and is worth owning in normal-sized mixed leagues for the strikeouts and WHIP. He will have a five-run stinker here or there, so you have to be in it for the long haul. NL: $22, Mixed: $10. Lastings Milledge, OF, NYN – A constant theme throughout Milledge's young career has been controversy. From spiking John Schuerholz's son to high-fiving fans to the profane rap song, he's consistently made headlines for the wrong reasons. None of that matters in fantasy baseball, though, and he hasn't had attitude problems this year to the best of my knowledge. He remains a .290-hitting, 20/20 bat at age 22. He'll have to hit the ground running to overtake Shawn Green once Moises Alou returns. NL: $15, Mixed: $3. Tom Gordon, RP, PHI – Flash is rehabbing his sore shoulder, and all was going well until he got tattooed by rookie ball hitters on Wednesday. He's further along than Brett Myers, but I wouldn't count on Gordon for too many more saves this year. NL: $10, Mixed: $1. Shane Youman, SP, PIT – With Zach Duke on the shelf, Youman gets to stay in the Pirates' rotation. Both his starts this year have been solid, but the southpaw was very hittable in Triple A before that. He's a bad choice in any league. NL: No, Mixed: No. Kip Wells, SP, STL – After the Kipper tossed 11 sparkling innings in relief, Tony La Russa decided to move him back into the rotation. The move could be short-lived as Chris Carpenter is just a couple of weeks away. Unless Wells solves his persistent control problem, you can ignore him in all but the deepest NL-only leagues. NL: $1, Mixed: No. Tim Redding, SP, WAS – Redding, the quintessential replacement level pitcher, could stick in the Nats' rotation until Micah Bowie returns. I can't decide which pitcher excites me more. Note: that was sarcasm. Neither have any business on any fantasy roster. NL: No, Mixed: No.