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Hache Man · 08-30-07, 04:04 PM

All Aboard
We've barreled through the meaningful part of the preseason, if there is such a thing. All that is left now before the real action is a few more lineup decisions from coaches, a horrible management move by the Browns and hopefully no more than 17 additional hours of peering into Ookie's soul.

Then we all will find out how much we didn't know. We pay close attention to all of the preseason action in an attempt to pick up on this year's fashionable sleepers, as well as trying to figure out just how much sexy Chad Johnson is going to bring back.

Once the regular season starts, a lot will blow up in our faces. It happens every year and the only thing predictable about it is that it definitely will happen. Which players and which teams is far more difficult to pin down, but we have to give it a shot, right?

I've picked out three teams that I believe will exceed expectations and three that will fall short. You can make the logical leap to extend the teams' success to the players included. The point is to look beyond the obvious teams - hey, everybody likes the Colts, right? - and try to hit a couple of potential surprises. So if you have any sense at all, you will take my opinions and . . . do what you will with them.

THREE I LIKE

Atlanta Falcons

I go back and forth on the Falcons, but the fact is that expectations could not be much lower. Many of the team's fans already have written off the season, mostly because Joey Harrington is the starting quarterback. The Falcons also have something going for them with a pair of former first-round receivers, Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler and two solid backs, Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood.

I'm not suggesting you rush out and load up on Falcons in the fourth round, but don't you think an offensive mind such as Bobby Petrino can make something out of this bunch? Harrington will have a few decent games so don't be scared to consider him as a backup or a bye-week fill-in. The backs are a little dicier. While Norwood clearly has much more upside, Dunn looks like he will retain the starting role for now as his veteran presence could calm the offense. Who knows how much the Falcons will win, but they will score more than you expect in many of those losses.

Oakland Raiders

The Daunte Culpepper Reclamation Project is turning into something serious and we are going to have to start thinking about drafting him soon. He is buying into Lane Kiffin's offense and appears healthy enough to be the Raiders' best threat at quarterback right now. Considering how he was discarded in Miami, that revival is nothing short of amazing.

The Raiders will remain generally conservative on offense early on, which will limit Culpepper's stats. He also is not nearly the runner he was a few years ago so don't go looking for extra numbers there. Then there are the wide receivers. Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter are not amazing, but as late-round finds, you could do much worse. And keep an eye on TE Zach Miller. The Raiders love him, they have little depth at tight end and could run this guy into the ground by Week 6 with all the playing time he will get.

Chicago Bears

OK, I think I'm the only person on the Rex Grossman bandwagon. And he still might fumble away my so-called support. However, let us be completely objective about this. In his first full season as a starter, Grossman finished tied for seventh in the league with 23 TDs passes and led his team to a 13-3 record and the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning would have killed for that kind of success in his first season.

Sure, Grossman does some funny things and many of his mistakes are particularly galling. He still is a young guy and young quarterbacks tend to do stupid things. After another full offseason in the offense and with a game-breaker such as Bernard Berrian continuing to grow and with TE Greg Olsen joining the offense, there is a lot to look forward to. Still, Grossman is going undrafted in many leagues. He isn't worth a roster spot at all? That is absurd.

THREE I DON'T

Cincinnati Bengals

When we get into January, one thing you'll hear about the teams still playing is about how they have great depth. Every club will go through some rough spots, but the good ones have enough depth to fight through. Well, the Bengals have no depth. They already lost rookie running back Kenny Irons, on top of perennially injured Chris Perry, and have nobody to lighten Rudi Johnson's load. And they have had no luck finding somebody to fill Chris Henry's valuable third receiver role for the first half of the season. The Bengals also were without their two starting tackles for much of the preseason, although left tackle Levi Jones came back Monday night.

That is a dicey combination of problems, and we're still a few days from September. If everything runs perfectly smoothly, the Bengals will be fine and their dynamic offense will keep rolling. But hoping to avoid problems at quarterback, wide receiver, running back and both tackle positions is a long bet. Maybe they get in trouble for only a game or two, but it's those games that could have a dramatic effect on how the season turns. I get a bad feeling when I see a team without capable reserves ready to pitch in, and that is what I see here.

Houston Texans

This isn't exactly going out on a limb, but with a bunch of people doing wacky things like picking Matt Schaub as their breakout player of the year, I feel compelled to bring some reason to the argument. Doesn't anybody remember Rob Johnson? The Bills dumped a first-round pick to go after Johnson, who had 35 passes in three seasons with the Jaguars and basically one good game. So what happened but Johnson gets involved in a quarterback mess with Doug Flutie and never amounts to anything. Oh, he did throw 12 TD passes one season but a star? Not quite.

I bring all of that up to keep the Schaub hysteria in perspective a bit. He has no business being more than a late-round pick, not with all of the offensive problems Houston has had in its existence. The Texans never have been able to protect the quarterback, their running game has been all over the map and other than Andre Johnson, what good receivers have they had? Maybe Schaub does mark the arrival of a new era. History is a bear to overcome here, though, especially when the rest of the cast is not appreciably better.

Miami Dolphins

Maybe I missed something, but when the Dolphins come up with such an excess of playmakers that they could dangle Chris Chambers as trade bait? They let Wes Welker go, got rid of TE Randy McMichael -- not a star but a nice target -- and QB Daunte Culpepper (see above). OK, new coach Cam Cameron wants his own guys in place, but Ted Ginn Jr. isn't ready to contribute as an every-down receiver and Marty Booker . . . well, he is Marty Booker. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws

And where'd this hype about Ronnie Brown come from? Folks are falling all over each other to draft him in the first round. Let me count the problems with this idea: He has a total of 10 career TDs, a career-high of 241 carries and did not play 16 games in either of his two seasons. The Dolphins still haven't figured out who plays where on the offensive line (hey, no rush, guys) and saying that Trent Green is playing like a 37-year-old is kind of insulting to 37-year-olds.

08-30-07, 04:04 PM	#72
Hache Man "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida Posts: 64,496	Re: Fantasy Football News 2007 All Aboard We've barreled through the meaningful part of the preseason, if there is such a thing. All that is left now before the real action is a few more lineup decisions from coaches, a horrible management move by the Browns and hopefully no more than 17 additional hours of peering into Ookie's soul. Then we all will find out how much we didn't know. We pay close attention to all of the preseason action in an attempt to pick up on this year's fashionable sleepers, as well as trying to figure out just how much sexy Chad Johnson is going to bring back. Once the regular season starts, a lot will blow up in our faces. It happens every year and the only thing predictable about it is that it definitely will happen. Which players and which teams is far more difficult to pin down, but we have to give it a shot, right? I've picked out three teams that I believe will exceed expectations and three that will fall short. You can make the logical leap to extend the teams' success to the players included. The point is to look beyond the obvious teams - hey, everybody likes the Colts, right? - and try to hit a couple of potential surprises. So if you have any sense at all, you will take my opinions and . . . do what you will with them. THREE I LIKE Atlanta Falcons I go back and forth on the Falcons, but the fact is that expectations could not be much lower. Many of the team's fans already have written off the season, mostly because Joey Harrington is the starting quarterback. The Falcons also have something going for them with a pair of former first-round receivers, Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler and two solid backs, Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood. I'm not suggesting you rush out and load up on Falcons in the fourth round, but don't you think an offensive mind such as Bobby Petrino can make something out of this bunch? Harrington will have a few decent games so don't be scared to consider him as a backup or a bye-week fill-in. The backs are a little dicier. While Norwood clearly has much more upside, Dunn looks like he will retain the starting role for now as his veteran presence could calm the offense. Who knows how much the Falcons will win, but they will score more than you expect in many of those losses. Oakland Raiders The Daunte Culpepper Reclamation Project is turning into something serious and we are going to have to start thinking about drafting him soon. He is buying into Lane Kiffin's offense and appears healthy enough to be the Raiders' best threat at quarterback right now. Considering how he was discarded in Miami, that revival is nothing short of amazing. The Raiders will remain generally conservative on offense early on, which will limit Culpepper's stats. He also is not nearly the runner he was a few years ago so don't go looking for extra numbers there. Then there are the wide receivers. Ronald Curry and Jerry Porter are not amazing, but as late-round finds, you could do much worse. And keep an eye on TE Zach Miller. The Raiders love him, they have little depth at tight end and could run this guy into the ground by Week 6 with all the playing time he will get. Chicago Bears OK, I think I'm the only person on the Rex Grossman bandwagon. And he still might fumble away my so-called support. However, let us be completely objective about this. In his first full season as a starter, Grossman finished tied for seventh in the league with 23 TDs passes and led his team to a 13-3 record and the Super Bowl. Peyton Manning would have killed for that kind of success in his first season. Sure, Grossman does some funny things and many of his mistakes are particularly galling. He still is a young guy and young quarterbacks tend to do stupid things. After another full offseason in the offense and with a game-breaker such as Bernard Berrian continuing to grow and with TE Greg Olsen joining the offense, there is a lot to look forward to. Still, Grossman is going undrafted in many leagues. He isn't worth a roster spot at all? That is absurd. THREE I DON'T Cincinnati Bengals When we get into January, one thing you'll hear about the teams still playing is about how they have great depth. Every club will go through some rough spots, but the good ones have enough depth to fight through. Well, the Bengals have no depth. They already lost rookie running back Kenny Irons, on top of perennially injured Chris Perry, and have nobody to lighten Rudi Johnson's load. And they have had no luck finding somebody to fill Chris Henry's valuable third receiver role for the first half of the season. The Bengals also were without their two starting tackles for much of the preseason, although left tackle Levi Jones came back Monday night. That is a dicey combination of problems, and we're still a few days from September. If everything runs perfectly smoothly, the Bengals will be fine and their dynamic offense will keep rolling. But hoping to avoid problems at quarterback, wide receiver, running back and both tackle positions is a long bet. Maybe they get in trouble for only a game or two, but it's those games that could have a dramatic effect on how the season turns. I get a bad feeling when I see a team without capable reserves ready to pitch in, and that is what I see here. Houston Texans This isn't exactly going out on a limb, but with a bunch of people doing wacky things like picking Matt Schaub as their breakout player of the year, I feel compelled to bring some reason to the argument. Doesn't anybody remember Rob Johnson? The Bills dumped a first-round pick to go after Johnson, who had 35 passes in three seasons with the Jaguars and basically one good game. So what happened but Johnson gets involved in a quarterback mess with Doug Flutie and never amounts to anything. Oh, he did throw 12 TD passes one season but a star? Not quite. I bring all of that up to keep the Schaub hysteria in perspective a bit. He has no business being more than a late-round pick, not with all of the offensive problems Houston has had in its existence. The Texans never have been able to protect the quarterback, their running game has been all over the map and other than Andre Johnson, what good receivers have they had? Maybe Schaub does mark the arrival of a new era. History is a bear to overcome here, though, especially when the rest of the cast is not appreciably better. Miami Dolphins Maybe I missed something, but when the Dolphins come up with such an excess of playmakers that they could dangle Chris Chambers as trade bait? They let Wes Welker go, got rid of TE Randy McMichael -- not a star but a nice target -- and QB Daunte Culpepper (see above). OK, new coach Cam Cameron wants his own guys in place, but Ted Ginn Jr. isn't ready to contribute as an every-down receiver and Marty Booker . . . well, he is Marty Booker. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws And where'd this hype about Ronnie Brown come from? Folks are falling all over each other to draft him in the first round. Let me count the problems with this idea: He has a total of 10 career TDs, a career-high of 241 carries and did not play 16 games in either of his two seasons. The Dolphins still haven't figured out who plays where on the offensive line (hey, no rush, guys) and saying that Trent Green is playing like a 37-year-old is kind of insulting to 37-year-olds.