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Hache Man · 08-30-07, 04:05 PM

The Great Unknown
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
The preseason is a time marked by the unknown. Take young Danny Baugher, for instance. Two weeks ago, the Patriots cut veteran Josh Miller and Baugher was virtually assured the punting gig. In my world, I imagine he's spent the time since sidling up to attractive women and informing them that he was, in fact, the Danny Baugher, punter for the New England Patriots (it's a line every single man should try, by the way). It's possible he mimed a punt for added sex appeal.

But today, Mr. Baugher woke up to a much crueler world. The Pats signed Chris Hanson and he is suddenly out of a job. Baugher not only loses a bunch of money, he loses the infinite sex appeal of a punter in the NFL. Such is life.

The 100KFC is a game built on match-ups. You want to play good players against bad defenses. Simple enough. But as Danny Baugher knows, it's hard to predict where someone stands in the preseason. Is Brandon Jacobs going to be this years Frank Gore? Is Braylon Edwards going to put up top tier WR numbers? Is Romo for real? There are a lot of unknowns now that will be painfully clear come week four.

Once the season is underway, we'll be able to see which teams give are giving up a ton of points to tight ends. Injuries will weaken pass defenses. We'll be able to see how coaching changes in Arizona, Oakland and Dallas have affected their respective team's performance.

In the meantime, however, it's probably best to play it safe. And to help you do so, I've picked out three teams that I can almost promise you will be terrible against the pass, and three more that will be decimated by the run. Until we have a better idea of how other defenses will fare this season, you should check the following teams' match-ups, and strongly consider starting anyone that goes against them.

Three Porous Run Defenses:

The Indianapolis Colts

Until Booger McFarland showed up, the Colts run defense stopped the rush about as well as a wet diaper last year. By the time the playoffs rolled around, though, the squad's defense held like the finest cloth diaper (yes, this is the first of many extended diaper metaphors). Well, McFarland is on IR, and the Colts are destined to once again give up big rushing numbers. Their first three match-ups are against New Orleans, Tennessee and Houston. Reggie Bush makes a great start in Week 1 against these guys, and using Ahman Green in Week 3 (before he is injured) could also be prudent.

The Buffalo Bills

On the plus side, the Bills have Dick Jauron as their head coach. The energy this firecracker exhibits is unmatched in football. When you think "game face," you think Dick Jauron. And the Bills defense will need to feed off his obvious energy if they want any shot this year. Don't get me wrong; they have a squad of very solid young players. Unfortunately, they lost most of their veteran leadership in Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher-Baker. There's no doubt that this team is poised to improve, but this season they will be little more than a group of inexperienced and undersized speedsters. Travis Henry, Willie Parker, and Laurence Maroney should all fare well in the first three weeks.

The Tennessee Titans

Considering the only other person who can make it rain is God, you have to imagine that losing Pacman Jones will hurt the Titans' anemic defense. Jones truly is an elite defensive weapon, and seeing as the Titans' defense was terrible with him, I don't think there's a word that accurately describes how bad they will be without him this season. The signing of Corey Simon could help, but his ability to contribute this season is unknown. The lack of run-stoppers in the secondary will make them easy pickings. Their first three opponents are Jacksonville, Indianapolis and New Orleans. It could be Addai's biggest game of the season.

Send Help for these Pass Defenses

The Atlanta Falcons

DeAngelo Hall is fast, and definitely gets the "Most Willing to Shave a Message in His Hair and Have It Backfire" award. But he's not the only person to give himself too much credit. Hall is overrated because of his speed, and he's still the anchor of a terrible Atlanta secondary. Chris Houston and Jimmy Williams provide hope for the future, but the Falcons should still be victimized often this year. Having Joey Harrington run the offense means they should be on the field quite often (because Harrington will throw 80-yard touchdown bombs on first down, obviously). Atlanta faces Minnesota, Jacksonville and Carolina in the first three weeks. Steve Smith probably can't wait.

The Detroit Lions

Woe is the Lions. They have a lot of offensive firepower, but it might not be enough to overcome one of the worst all-around defenses in the NFL. They were brutal last year, and their major offseason defensive move was shipping Dre' Bly off to the Broncos. Run-stopping safety Daniel Bullocks was recently placed on IR, only making matters worse. The Lions play Oakland, Minnesota and Philadelphia in the first three weeks. McNabb is a great start, and since the 100KFC forces you to start 24 QBs over the course of the regular season, it might even make sense to start Culpepper. That's how hard up the Lions are.

The New York Giants

The Giants secondary is full of mediocre talent. Rookie Aaron Ross will eventually be an elite corner, but for now is stuck behind two grizzled vets, making his impact minimal. Michael Strahan will probably return, but that shouldn't make the Giants any better against the pass than they were last year. They should give up plenty when they face Dallas, Green Bay and Washington in the first three weeks.

I suggest you find yourself a grid of the NFL Schedule. Scour the first twelve weeks and find what you believe to be strong match-ups. Try to decide when you want to play studs like Manning, LT or Chad Johnson and mark off those weeks. That way you know when you're going to need to dig a little deeper and you can prepare for it. There's no shame in becoming a dork over this game. Winning involves planning and the potential payoff is huge. Nobody's gonna call you a nerd when you're walking around in your brand new NBC polo shirt, damn it.

08-30-07, 04:05 PM	#73
Hache Man "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida Posts: 64,496	Re: Fantasy Football News 2007 The Great Unknown www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws The preseason is a time marked by the unknown. Take young Danny Baugher, for instance. Two weeks ago, the Patriots cut veteran Josh Miller and Baugher was virtually assured the punting gig. In my world, I imagine he's spent the time since sidling up to attractive women and informing them that he was, in fact, the Danny Baugher, punter for the New England Patriots (it's a line every single man should try, by the way). It's possible he mimed a punt for added sex appeal. But today, Mr. Baugher woke up to a much crueler world. The Pats signed Chris Hanson and he is suddenly out of a job. Baugher not only loses a bunch of money, he loses the infinite sex appeal of a punter in the NFL. Such is life. The 100KFC is a game built on match-ups. You want to play good players against bad defenses. Simple enough. But as Danny Baugher knows, it's hard to predict where someone stands in the preseason. Is Brandon Jacobs going to be this years Frank Gore? Is Braylon Edwards going to put up top tier WR numbers? Is Romo for real? There are a lot of unknowns now that will be painfully clear come week four. Once the season is underway, we'll be able to see which teams give are giving up a ton of points to tight ends. Injuries will weaken pass defenses. We'll be able to see how coaching changes in Arizona, Oakland and Dallas have affected their respective team's performance. In the meantime, however, it's probably best to play it safe. And to help you do so, I've picked out three teams that I can almost promise you will be terrible against the pass, and three more that will be decimated by the run. Until we have a better idea of how other defenses will fare this season, you should check the following teams' match-ups, and strongly consider starting anyone that goes against them. Three Porous Run Defenses: The Indianapolis Colts Until Booger McFarland showed up, the Colts run defense stopped the rush about as well as a wet diaper last year. By the time the playoffs rolled around, though, the squad's defense held like the finest cloth diaper (yes, this is the first of many extended diaper metaphors). Well, McFarland is on IR, and the Colts are destined to once again give up big rushing numbers. Their first three match-ups are against New Orleans, Tennessee and Houston. Reggie Bush makes a great start in Week 1 against these guys, and using Ahman Green in Week 3 (before he is injured) could also be prudent. The Buffalo Bills On the plus side, the Bills have Dick Jauron as their head coach. The energy this firecracker exhibits is unmatched in football. When you think "game face," you think Dick Jauron. And the Bills defense will need to feed off his obvious energy if they want any shot this year. Don't get me wrong; they have a squad of very solid young players. Unfortunately, they lost most of their veteran leadership in Takeo Spikes and London Fletcher-Baker. There's no doubt that this team is poised to improve, but this season they will be little more than a group of inexperienced and undersized speedsters. Travis Henry, Willie Parker, and Laurence Maroney should all fare well in the first three weeks. The Tennessee Titans Considering the only other person who can make it rain is God, you have to imagine that losing Pacman Jones will hurt the Titans' anemic defense. Jones truly is an elite defensive weapon, and seeing as the Titans' defense was terrible with him, I don't think there's a word that accurately describes how bad they will be without him this season. The signing of Corey Simon could help, but his ability to contribute this season is unknown. The lack of run-stoppers in the secondary will make them easy pickings. Their first three opponents are Jacksonville, Indianapolis and New Orleans. It could be Addai's biggest game of the season. Send Help for these Pass Defenses The Atlanta Falcons DeAngelo Hall is fast, and definitely gets the "Most Willing to Shave a Message in His Hair and Have It Backfire" award. But he's not the only person to give himself too much credit. Hall is overrated because of his speed, and he's still the anchor of a terrible Atlanta secondary. Chris Houston and Jimmy Williams provide hope for the future, but the Falcons should still be victimized often this year. Having Joey Harrington run the offense means they should be on the field quite often (because Harrington will throw 80-yard touchdown bombs on first down, obviously). Atlanta faces Minnesota, Jacksonville and Carolina in the first three weeks. Steve Smith probably can't wait. The Detroit Lions Woe is the Lions. They have a lot of offensive firepower, but it might not be enough to overcome one of the worst all-around defenses in the NFL. They were brutal last year, and their major offseason defensive move was shipping Dre' Bly off to the Broncos. Run-stopping safety Daniel Bullocks was recently placed on IR, only making matters worse. The Lions play Oakland, Minnesota and Philadelphia in the first three weeks. McNabb is a great start, and since the 100KFC forces you to start 24 QBs over the course of the regular season, it might even make sense to start Culpepper. That's how hard up the Lions are. The New York Giants The Giants secondary is full of mediocre talent. Rookie Aaron Ross will eventually be an elite corner, but for now is stuck behind two grizzled vets, making his impact minimal. Michael Strahan will probably return, but that shouldn't make the Giants any better against the pass than they were last year. They should give up plenty when they face Dallas, Green Bay and Washington in the first three weeks. I suggest you find yourself a grid of the NFL Schedule. Scour the first twelve weeks and find what you believe to be strong match-ups. Try to decide when you want to play studs like Manning, LT or Chad Johnson and mark off those weeks. That way you know when you're going to need to dig a little deeper and you can prepare for it. There's no shame in becoming a dork over this game. Winning involves planning and the potential payoff is huge. Nobody's gonna call you a nerd when you're walking around in your brand new NBC polo shirt, damn it.