Little reward in risky picks
The absurdity of the NFL preseason is never on display more so than during this final week of exhibitions. You better get to pregame warm-ups early if you have any hope of seeing your favorite stars in uniform. Coaches just want to iron out roster spots Nos. 40-53 and start game-planning for Week 1.
They will have you believe that training camp and preseason play is of paramount importance, but let's be real: jobs are won in May and June as much as they are in August anymore. That means most of the remaining training camp battles are between players flawed enough to leave the door open to competition.
That does not mean, however, that everybody fighting to start is worth drafting. Some players will be destined for success, though they might start off as reserves on your roster. Just be sure you know what is going on in these spots; there is little worse than drafting a guy who just got stuck on the bench.
Miami Dolphins running back. This gets top billing not so much because it is a true competition but because of the shock value.
Ronnie Brown is not really about to lose his job, especially to
Jesse Chatman. But the fact coach Cam Cameron thinks he needs to light a fire under Brown should end any crazy ideas about taking Brown in the first round. The third round is more like it, especially if you're getting the feeling the Dolphins are waiting until the regular season to unleash a secret weapon in rookie
Lorenzo Booker.
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws Tennessee Titans running back and wide receiver. As shocking as it sounds, the Titans ought to let
LenDale White start at running back. Give him the ball, see if he stays healthy and see what happens. They know what they have in veteran
Chris Brown, and while it isn't bad, it's nothing special. White starting is far from certain, and even if he does, Brown will not be far thanks to White's horrible injury history. White also is a surprisingly good receiver and a potential TD threat, yet this is a situation to stay away from. Rookie
Chris Henry is not a factor.
The wide receivers remain muddled, though veteran
Eric Moulds has room to make a move after not exerting much effort in preseason. Youngsters such as
Brandon Jones and
Roydell Williams have not made an impact and do not appear ready to be consistent threats. Tight end
Bo Scaife is worth a look, considering he appears to be the only receiver
Vince Young looks for regularly.
Atlanta Falcons running back. We might have jumped the gun a bit in proclaiming
Jerious Norwood the next great thing when news of
Warrick Dunn's back surgery broke just before camp. Dunn got back on the field quickly and earned coach Bobby Petrino's trust with his experience as a blocker and receiver. Norwood missed some time because of a stomach ailment, and the pendulum swung back toward Dunn. Dunn's age (32) is a concern, though he has not missed a game since 2003. He also has a career high of 286 carries, so both will get work, even though Dunn looks like the guy to grab now.
Green Bay Packers running back. Injuries, especially to
Vernand Morency, have given this job to rookie
Brandon Jackson by default, and he steadily has moved up draft boards. Counting on him as an every-week starter is risky, but adding him as a third back is a high-upside move. It has been tough to get a read on Jackson's potential as a featured back, and his biggest value could come as a TD threat. The Packers do not have anybody else to get the goal-line rushes.
Oakland Raiders quarterback. Daunte Culpepper has established himself as the top quarterback and, with
JaMarcus Russell's extended holdout, he could start most of the season. The Raiders will remain conservative offensively early on, so do not expect Culpepper to match the dramatic numbers he used to have with the Minnesota Vikings. But if he secures Oakland's starting role, he will be worth a shot as your backup. Do not expect many rushing stats.
Cleveland Browns quarterback. Rookie
Brady Quinn has caught up quickly to his competition, which is not saying much.
Charlie Frye and
Derek Anderson barely have been able to get out of their own way all preseason, and the Browns' best hope is to throw Quinn in as the starter and hope he is passable by midseason. That would mean some ugly moments early on but also some times when Quinn is worth a place on a roster, especially with playmakers such as
Braylon Edwards and tight end
Kellen Winslow II in place.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver. David Boston was starting to make the push for Tampa Bay's No. 2 job interesting, bringing back memories of his 1,598-yard season in 2001, before his arrest on a driving under the influence charge put his rise into question. Now it is
Maurice Stovall who might get a shot ahead of the disappointing
Michael Clayton if the Bucs sour on Boston. Stovall is worth a look early in the season, but he is not nearly as interesting a story as Boston.
Detroit Lions running back. This is pretty much
Tatum Bell's spot, and he is a popular sleeper as a dynamic running threat in what should be an explosive offense. But he banged up his shin last week, highlighting how risky that gamble is. If the Lions keep
Kevin Jones on the physically unable to perform list into the regular season, a Bell injury means the Lions are down to
T.J. Duckett,
Brian Calhoun and
Aveion Cason. If the Lions activate Jones, he could be pressed into action sooner than expected if Bell gets dinged again. Bell will have some great stretches but is unlikely to be a season-long answer.
Minnesota Vikings wide receivers. This is a bad combination of a muddled depth chart and conservative passing game.
Bobby Wade looks like a solid possession receiver, and
Troy Williamson is a decent deep threat who drops too many passes on a team that will not throw deep very often. Rookie
Sidney Rice does not look ready to make an impact, and recently signed
Robert Ferguson could immediately win playing time. Yes, this is a competition, but you don't want the winner.
Kickers. With so many options available, there is no reason to draft anybody in jeopardy of losing his job. But in case you're wondering … inexperienced
Josh Huston easily could beat out veteran
Lawrence Tynes for the New York Giants job, though neither has been great. John Vaughn's rise in Tennessee hit a ceiling and
Rob Bironas' inconsistency could send the Titans to the waiver wire. If
Martin Gramatica needs time to recover from his hamstring injury, that will reopen the door for rookie
Nick Folk with the Dallas Cowboys, while the Packers are feeling better about rookie
Mason Crosby replacing
Dave Rayner.
ROOKIE REPORT
We usually get a little overexcited about rookies, especially when they break off fancy moves in a preseason game against a backup defense. But whenever you start to think you have uncovered a rookie destined to star, remember there have been only three rookie 1,000-yard receivers in the last eight years.
Running backs are more likely to make an impact, though that realistic talent pool generally is limited to first-day draft picks. You know you want to draft a rookie or two; some to consider, aside from obvious prospects
Marshawn Lynch and
Adrian Peterson.
Brian Leonard. He has shown a spark given extensive work with starter
Steven Jackson sitting out most of the preseason. Leonard will get some work regardless and has been good enough to be worth a look if Jackson were injured. Add him to your running back handcuff list because of how expensive Jackson is to acquire.
Tony Hunt. The Philadelphia Eagles are giving him a look as a short-yardage back, and Hunt has become a common late pick. Remember, though, that the Eagles rarely lean on rookies much and starter
Brian Westbrook is a reliable TD threat, even if he is injury-prone.
Calvin Johnson. Almost all expectations for Johnson are out of reach. Somebody in your league will think he will dominate like
Randy Moss did as a rookie (1,313 yards, 17 TDs), but that is unrealistic. Did you forget how good
Roy Williams is and the 98 catches
Mike Furrey had last season? If Johnson approaches 1,000 yards and six to eight TDs, he will have had a dream season.
Craig Davis. The San Diego Chargers return one of the worst receiving groups in the league, especially for a team that went 14-2 last year and led the league in scoring (by more than four points). Davis drops into a starting job, and possibly the No. 1 role, after veteran
Eric Parker's foot injury sidelined him for a big part of the season.
Vincent Jackson also is on the rise, but he is inconsistent. Davis has an opportunity to seize, though
Antonio Gates and LaDainiain Tomlinson will keep most of the scoring chances.
James Jones. Pencil Jones in as one of the late-preseason risers.
Donald Driver's foot injury and
Greg Jennings' quiet preseason have made Jones a hot prospect. He will be at least the No. 3 receiver and possibly more, depending on Driver and Jennings. Jones has made plenty of fine catches thus far, but do not get too carried away. Jennings looks like he is being kept under wraps by design, and he had an excellent start to his rookie season before injuries hit. If Driver is ready for Week 1, Jones' role will be substantial yet limited.
Anthony Gonzalez. Plenty of people want to make him a high pick simply because he plays for the Indianapolis Colts, something that should be good for him in the long term. For now he is stuck behind
Marvin Harrison and
Reggie Wayne in an offense that features the pass less than a few years ago and likes to use its tight ends. Think of Gonzalez as another Wayne. Wayne had 345 yards and zero TDs as a rookie and did not hit 1,000 yards until his fourth season. Gonzalez will not take off until either Harrison or Wayne is out of the way.
Dwayne Jarrett. The Carolina Panthers need a big receiver such as Jarrett and another threat behind star
Steve Smith. So Jarrett certainly will get an opportunity, and you can spend a late pick if you have the flexibility. He will get some goal-line chances but not enough playing time.
Robert Meachem, Dwane Bowe, Ted Ginn. None of these first-round receivers have done anything noteworthy and seem relegated to a longer development curve. Meachem at least is in a dynamic offense, while Bowe has a poor passing game to overcome and Ginn a crowded depth chart.
Jacoby Jones. Look here for the 2007 version of
Devin Hester. Don't expect much out of him as a wide receiver, though he will see some time. He has made a preseason splash as a returner and is worth a pick if your league rewards individuals; he also ups the value of the Houston Texans' special teams.
Greg Olsen. He is getting a lot of hype as the possible final piece to the
Rex Grossman puzzle, but as we've seen, Grossman has plenty of other issues to work through. Yes, Olsen might turn into an excellent receiver; however, his issue as a rookie is splitting time with
Desmond Clark. Let's not consider him the next Gates just yet; he is a backup at best.
Zach Miller. The Raiders are throwing Miller right into the mix, and his downfield ability is crucial to a team that needs regular receiving options. The passing game remains a question, but he will get plenty of playing time and be a threat in the red zone. Plus, he is a receiving tight end who wears No. 45. That alone makes him worth a pick.
AROUND THE LEAGUE:
Remember the name
J.T. O'Sullivan. Why? Because Lions starter
Jon Kitna, 35, is dealing with back spasm and because No. 2
Dan Orlovsky's job is in jeopardy because of injuries and spotty play. O'Sullivan might open the season as Detroit's backup, and coordinator Mike Martz seems to love the guy. Why is that important? Because you had never heard of
Kurt Warner or
Marc Bulger either before Martz made them stars. O'Sullivan has been around a bit (the Lions are his sixth team, third in the NFC North) and has never attempted a regular-season pass. A perfect Martz project.
Damon Huard took over what used to be a competition and will start at quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, but that was a fight nobody won. Huard missed time because of a calf injury, and
Brodie Croyle took himself out of the running by playing like he needs at least one more redshirt season. Huard will have a short leash, and you should not expect any of the occasional magic he produced last year in relief of
Trent Green. The Chiefs will give Croyle a shot at some point and Huard is no more than a one-week emergency fill-in.
The New York Jets' quarterback situation isn't a controversy just yet. A discussion is more accurate, considering
Chad Pennington helped the team to the playoffs last year and that type of veteran will not lose his job in preseason.
Kellen Clemens was drafted for the future, meaning Pennington is not beyond benching in-season. That obscures the fact that Pennington is not a great fantasy pick anyhow because of the team's offense and his arm strength. Take him off your board completely if you're worried about Clemens moving in.