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Hache Man · 08-31-07, 01:59 PM

When to sit Carson Palmer
In Pro Football Prospectus 2007, I posed a question that stands up there in the pantheon of difficult-to-answer conundrums like "Is anyone going to eat the last buffalo wing?" and "Do I look fat in these?"

"When is Alex Smith better than Carson Palmer?"

Of course, the initial reaction to the question is just a simple "No". Smith is a developing quarterback on a solid team, but to compare him to the All-World Palmer? They're not in the same stratosphere. And, well, about 95% of the time, you'd be right.

The correct answer to this question, for the purposes of this column, is "Week 1 of the 2007 NFL Season."

My name is Bill Barnwell, and I'm a contributing editor at Football Outsiders, the statistical analysis website that breaks down football in the way that people like Bill James and Baseball Prospectus have developed statistics and guides for baseball.
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
What we've done in the past four years is develop a series of statistics that do a better job of determining what wins games on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis than what people normally use for metrics, things like yards and the previous year's win totals and what-not. Our core stats are DVOA and DPAR. For a quick explanation of how these stats work, check out the bottom of this column.

***

In the essay I wrote for the book, I evaluated how players of different levels of talent and experience do versus five different tiers of defenses, ranging from great to average to replacement-level.

My findings can be summated into two points:

1. All players at a given position are affected by defenses to the same extent.

While there are rare exceptions, over the course of time, great players suffer just as much mediocre ones do. Peyton Manning's affected when he plays against the Ravens passing defense just as much as Charlie Frye is -- the difference is that Manning has more to lose, because he normally gains more points than Frye.

2. Quarterbacks and running backs lose about a third of their value when playing the best defenses in the league as opposed to the worst; wide receivers lose about 15% of their value, and there's no real pattern for tight ends.

Of course, not even fantasy football is played on paper, so you can't just take LaDainian Tomlinson's typical performance, subtract a percentage, and then compare it to someone else. You have to consider many other things -- namely, the context of the matchup and the opposition. Do they stop running backs who catch the ball out of the backfield? Will the team be winning and running the ball in the second half, or losing and throwing desperately to catch up? Is the player suffering from a nagging injury? Have the players around him changed? Is the protection alright?

It's impossible to account for all these things, but using them as a background, you can also account for the defense he'll be facing using the defensive stats available on our website. And, on average, a great defense will cost a player 30% of his value as opposed to an awful one. There will always be days where Larry Johnson gets 44 points against the Ravens (well, maybe not anymore) and Maurice Morris only goes for three against Indy. What this column aims to do is present the likeliest scenarios to you based upon the data we've collected in an attempt to isolate matchups that are good or bad for your fantasy team.

As for Smith and Palmer? In Week 1, Palmer goes up against the Ravens, whose pass defense (-25.2% DVOA) was best in the league last year. Palmer averaged 12 fantasy points (in a standard configuration) per game against the Ravens last year. Meanwhile, Smith is up against the Cardinals -- he averaged 12.5 points per game against them. While that half-point isn't a huge difference, he had 18 points in his Week 1 game against Arizona; by the time their second game rolled around, Antonio Bryant was gone and LT Jonas Jennings was hurt and not protecting Smith's blindside. With Darrell Jackson in the fold, Jennings (and Joe Staley) on the field instead of Kwame "The Human Turnstile" Harris, and Chris Henry suspended, all signs are pointing to Alex Smith outplaying Carson Palmer for at least one week. Next week, we'll preview Week 1 and detail the fantasy matchups to look out for.

How our system works

A good example is a typical Carolina Panthers drive. Jake Delhomme lofts up an eight-yard pass that Steve Smith catches. Smith dekes out three defenders, gets a cheerleader's phone number as he runs down the sideline, stops to film a DirecTV commercial, and gets tackled on the opponent's two-yard line after gaining 74 yards. A great play for your NFL team and your fantasy team, if you have Smith or Delhomme. On the next play, DeShaun Foster runs the ball in from two yards out. A good play for all parties involved, again, but not a particularly difficult one for Foster. NFL teams convert from the two five out of six times.

It's with this in mind that we developed our two core statistics, DVOA and DPAR. DVOA breaks down every play, assigning it a value based upon how much closer it brings a team towards scoring a touchdown. Then, we compare that play and its value to the average success value of a play to "similar" plays, as judged by down and distance, field location, the time remaining, and the difference in score. A three-yard gain by Donovan McNabb on third-and-20 is different than a three-yard gain by Brian Westbrook on third-and-1.

Finally, we adjust the value based upon the defense the play is up against. Those three yards would have meant a lot more against the Ravens last year than it would have against the Colts. We then convert this into a percentage -- a 0% DVOA would be league-average. DPAR measures how often a player does versus the same level of performance that would be provided by a replacement-level player, freely-available off the street (think David Terrell here). It accounts for the value of a player running the ball at a 0% DVOA 300 times as opposed to ten.

Using DVOA, we rate both teams and players on their performance over the course of the season, and use these metrics to gain a better understanding of their levels of play as the season goes along. Since DVOA adjusts on a play-by-play basis, we can evaluate how a particular team does against tight ends or inside the red zone. Of course, since we all play fantasy football, this data is easily applicable. We'll be back next week with some surprising Week 1 plays.

08-31-07, 01:59 PM	#76
Hache Man "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida Posts: 64,496	Re: Fantasy Football News 2007 When to sit Carson Palmer In Pro Football Prospectus 2007, I posed a question that stands up there in the pantheon of difficult-to-answer conundrums like "Is anyone going to eat the last buffalo wing?" and "Do I look fat in these?" "When is Alex Smith better than Carson Palmer?" Of course, the initial reaction to the question is just a simple "No". Smith is a developing quarterback on a solid team, but to compare him to the All-World Palmer? They're not in the same stratosphere. And, well, about 95% of the time, you'd be right. The correct answer to this question, for the purposes of this column, is "Week 1 of the 2007 NFL Season." My name is Bill Barnwell, and I'm a contributing editor at Football Outsiders, the statistical analysis website that breaks down football in the way that people like Bill James and Baseball Prospectus have developed statistics and guides for baseball. www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws What we've done in the past four years is develop a series of statistics that do a better job of determining what wins games on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis than what people normally use for metrics, things like yards and the previous year's win totals and what-not. Our core stats are DVOA and DPAR. For a quick explanation of how these stats work, check out the bottom of this column. * In the essay I wrote for the book, I evaluated how players of different levels of talent and experience do versus five different tiers of defenses, ranging from great to average to replacement-level. My findings can be summated into two points: 1. All players at a given position are affected by defenses to the same extent. While there are rare exceptions, over the course of time, great players suffer just as much mediocre ones do. Peyton Manning's affected when he plays against the Ravens passing defense just as much as Charlie Frye is -- the difference is that Manning has more to lose, because he normally gains more points than Frye. 2. Quarterbacks and running backs lose about a third of their value when playing the best defenses in the league as opposed to the worst; wide receivers lose about 15% of their value, and there's no real pattern for tight ends. Of course, not even fantasy football is played on paper, so you can't just take LaDainian Tomlinson's typical performance, subtract a percentage, and then compare it to someone else. You have to consider many other things -- namely, the context of the matchup and the opposition. Do they stop running backs who catch the ball out of the backfield? Will the team be winning and running the ball in the second half, or losing and throwing desperately to catch up? Is the player suffering from a nagging injury? Have the players around him changed? Is the protection alright? It's impossible to account for all these things, but using them as a background, you can also account for the defense he'll be facing using the defensive stats available on our website. And, on average, a great defense will cost a player 30% of his value as opposed to an awful one. There will always be days where Larry Johnson gets 44 points against the Ravens (well, maybe not anymore) and Maurice Morris only goes for three against Indy. What this column aims to do is present the likeliest scenarios to you based upon the data we've collected in an attempt to isolate matchups that are good or bad for your fantasy team. As for Smith and Palmer? In Week 1, Palmer goes up against the Ravens, whose pass defense (-25.2% DVOA) was best in the league last year. Palmer averaged 12 fantasy points (in a standard configuration) per game against the Ravens last year. Meanwhile, Smith is up against the Cardinals -- he averaged 12.5 points per game against them. While that half-point isn't a huge difference, he had 18 points in his Week 1 game against Arizona; by the time their second game rolled around, Antonio Bryant was gone and LT Jonas Jennings was hurt and not protecting Smith's blindside. With Darrell Jackson in the fold, Jennings (and Joe Staley) on the field instead of Kwame "The Human Turnstile" Harris, and Chris Henry suspended, all signs are pointing to Alex Smith outplaying Carson Palmer for at least one week. Next week, we'll preview Week 1 and detail the fantasy matchups to look out for. How our system works** A good example is a typical Carolina Panthers drive. Jake Delhomme lofts up an eight-yard pass that Steve Smith catches. Smith dekes out three defenders, gets a cheerleader's phone number as he runs down the sideline, stops to film a DirecTV commercial, and gets tackled on the opponent's two-yard line after gaining 74 yards. A great play for your NFL team and your fantasy team, if you have Smith or Delhomme. On the next play, DeShaun Foster runs the ball in from two yards out. A good play for all parties involved, again, but not a particularly difficult one for Foster. NFL teams convert from the two five out of six times. It's with this in mind that we developed our two core statistics, DVOA and DPAR. DVOA breaks down every play, assigning it a value based upon how much closer it brings a team towards scoring a touchdown. Then, we compare that play and its value to the average success value of a play to "similar" plays, as judged by down and distance, field location, the time remaining, and the difference in score. A three-yard gain by Donovan McNabb on third-and-20 is different than a three-yard gain by Brian Westbrook on third-and-1. Finally, we adjust the value based upon the defense the play is up against. Those three yards would have meant a lot more against the Ravens last year than it would have against the Colts. We then convert this into a percentage -- a 0% DVOA would be league-average. DPAR measures how often a player does versus the same level of performance that would be provided by a replacement-level player, freely-available off the street (think David Terrell here). It accounts for the value of a player running the ball at a 0% DVOA 300 times as opposed to ten. Using DVOA, we rate both teams and players on their performance over the course of the season, and use these metrics to gain a better understanding of their levels of play as the season goes along. Since DVOA adjusts on a play-by-play basis, we can evaluate how a particular team does against tight ends or inside the red zone. Of course, since we all play fantasy football, this data is easily applicable. We'll be back next week with some surprising Week 1 plays.