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Hache Man · 01-12-07, 09:02 PM

Padre Possibilities

Offseason Lowdown turns its attention this week to the West Coast to check in on the Padres' winter happenings and 2007 outlook.

But certainly no mention of the Padres would be complete without a tip of the hat to Mr. Padre, Tony Gwynn, elected into the Hall of Fame this week. In a most deserving honor, the man who spent his entire 20-year career with San Diego (fittingly entering the Hall with another man who spent his entire career with one team – Cal Ripken, Jr.) was voted in by getting named on a whopping 97.6 percent of the ballots cast. Of course, high percentages are nothing new to Gwynn, winner of an NL record-tying eight batting titles and author of 3,141 career hits. The 15-time All-Star was enjoying the finest season of his career (.394) when labor issues ground the 1994 season to a halt, denying Gwynn the chance to become baseball's first .400 hitter since Ted Williams.

Skinny: The Padres have enjoyed back-to-back post-season appearances for the first time in team history, improving by six games last season. Now all they need to do is figure out how to get past the Cardinals.

Strengths: Pitching. The Padres held opponents to the lowest batting average (.249) in all of baseball last year while leading the majors in WHIP and finishing second in team ERA and tied for second in saves. A product of their pitching-friendly home, Petco Park? Yes, but not as much as you'd think. The club also enjoyed the second-best ERA on the road.

Weaknesses: Power. While the Padres' overall hitting is definitely made to look worse than it is because of Petco (.245 at home, .279 on the road; 315 runs at home, 426 on the road), there's no disguising that the club lacked power wherever it played in 2006. In fact, they managed just 86 long balls away from Petco and just 75 while playing there. When your top home run hitter is Adrian Gonzalez, you're in trouble (not to diminish the fine season Gonzalez enjoyed, but heading into 2006, he was hardly considered a power threat).

Key offseason acquisitions

Second baseman Marcus Giles signed as a free agent in order to finally fulfill his wish and play with his older brother. Thankfully, the Padres will not employ him at leadoff, a role in which he failed badly at last season while with the Braves.

Giles fills the hole that opened at second when Josh Barfield was dealt to Cleveland for Kevin Kouzmanoff, expected to battle with holdover Russell Branyan for the third base job. Reliever Andrew Brown also arrived from Cleveland in this deal and he could help the Padres this season.

Greg Maddux, added as a free agent for one season plus a 2008 option, joins with Jake Peavy and Chris Young to give the Padres' rotation a superb front three.

Jose Cruz Jr., signed to a one-year deal, will have a chance to compete with Terrmel Sledge in left field, but will likely be the club's fourth outfielder.

Heath Bell and Royce Ring, acquired in a trade with the Mets, will each help out in the Padres' pen.

Scott Strickland was signed as a free agent and could also provide some decent middle relief for the Padres.

Former Angels' pitching coach Bud Black has stepped in as manager to replace Bruce Bochy, inexplicably allowed to walk away from the team despite an impressive run of success in San Diego. Black has no previous managing experience, but has built a reputation as quite the pitching guru. Pitching isn't exactly the Padres' weak spot, however.

Key question: Who's the fifth starter? Right now the team has Mike Thompson penciled in, although equally unproven Tim Stauffer could also have a shot. However, GM Kevin Towers has said he'd prefer a veteran to man the slot. Could that mean David Wells, the free agent who finished the season with San Diego before supposedly retiring? The Padres are certainly talking to him with more urgency these days after missing out in the Randy Johnson sweepstakes. The fact that the Unit landed on a division rival only heightens that urgency for San Diego. Re-signing free agent Chan Ho Park is another option. Jeff Weaver is also still out there, and should begin to get more serious consideration now that most of the big names are off the market. He's probably going to want even more than Jeff Suppan got, which is too much, in other words. Tomo Ohka is also still available, but the Padres better move quick if they have interest in him because he reportedly has a few multi-year offers on the table already. The Padres have brought back Shawn Estes who made one start for them as the number five man last year before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Estes got a minor league deal, but won't be ready to contribute until the all-star break, if then.

Fantasy sleeper: Is Kouzmanoff the power hitter the Padres so desperately crave or just the next victim of Petco? He slugged .660 at Double-A and barely slowed down at Triple-A before the Indians called him up last year. If Kouzmanoff can't win the job, Branyan provided evidence last year that he isn't a total washout and his power could be prodigious. Otherwise, Branyan may see time in the outfield. With the Pads desperate for a power bat, each of these players should get long leashes.

Projected Lineup

LF Terrmel Sledge
2B Marcus Giles
RF Brian Giles
1B Adrian Gonzalez
CF Mike Cameron
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff/Russell Branyan
C Josh Bard
SS Khalil Greene

Rotation

Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Greg Maddux
Clay Hensley
Mike Thompson/Tim Stauffer

Bullpen

Trevor Hoffman, closer
Scott Linebrink
Cla Meredith

Key Bench: Branyan, Todd Walker, Cruz, Geoff Blum.

On the Horizon

Cedric Hunter, OF: The Padres' third rounder last season looks like one of the steals of the draft after tearing up the Rookie Arizona League and winding up hitting .364 combined over two levels. He's no Matt Bush, and that's a good thing.

Cesar Carrillo, RHP: The Padres' first rounder from 2005, Carrillo was the team's top pitching prospect at Double-A before moving up to Triple-A last year. Unfortunately, after just one Triple-A start he had to shut it down for the season because of a sore elbow. If the 22-year-old righty is healthy, he can help the big club this season.

01-12-07, 09:02 PM	#1
Hache Man Moderator "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida Posts: 62,331	Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Padre Possibilities Offseason Lowdown turns its attention this week to the West Coast to check in on the Padres' winter happenings and 2007 outlook. But certainly no mention of the Padres would be complete without a tip of the hat to Mr. Padre, Tony Gwynn, elected into the Hall of Fame this week. In a most deserving honor, the man who spent his entire 20-year career with San Diego (fittingly entering the Hall with another man who spent his entire career with one team – Cal Ripken, Jr.) was voted in by getting named on a whopping 97.6 percent of the ballots cast. Of course, high percentages are nothing new to Gwynn, winner of an NL record-tying eight batting titles and author of 3,141 career hits. The 15-time All-Star was enjoying the finest season of his career (.394) when labor issues ground the 1994 season to a halt, denying Gwynn the chance to become baseball's first .400 hitter since Ted Williams. Skinny: The Padres have enjoyed back-to-back post-season appearances for the first time in team history, improving by six games last season. Now all they need to do is figure out how to get past the Cardinals. Strengths: Pitching. The Padres held opponents to the lowest batting average (.249) in all of baseball last year while leading the majors in WHIP and finishing second in team ERA and tied for second in saves. A product of their pitching-friendly home, Petco Park? Yes, but not as much as you'd think. The club also enjoyed the second-best ERA on the road. Weaknesses: Power. While the Padres' overall hitting is definitely made to look worse than it is because of Petco (.245 at home, .279 on the road; 315 runs at home, 426 on the road), there's no disguising that the club lacked power wherever it played in 2006. In fact, they managed just 86 long balls away from Petco and just 75 while playing there. When your top home run hitter is Adrian Gonzalez, you're in trouble (not to diminish the fine season Gonzalez enjoyed, but heading into 2006, he was hardly considered a power threat). Key offseason acquisitions Second baseman Marcus Giles signed as a free agent in order to finally fulfill his wish and play with his older brother. Thankfully, the Padres will not employ him at leadoff, a role in which he failed badly at last season while with the Braves. Giles fills the hole that opened at second when Josh Barfield was dealt to Cleveland for Kevin Kouzmanoff, expected to battle with holdover Russell Branyan for the third base job. Reliever Andrew Brown also arrived from Cleveland in this deal and he could help the Padres this season. Greg Maddux, added as a free agent for one season plus a 2008 option, joins with Jake Peavy and Chris Young to give the Padres' rotation a superb front three. Jose Cruz Jr., signed to a one-year deal, will have a chance to compete with Terrmel Sledge in left field, but will likely be the club's fourth outfielder. Heath Bell and Royce Ring, acquired in a trade with the Mets, will each help out in the Padres' pen. Scott Strickland was signed as a free agent and could also provide some decent middle relief for the Padres. Former Angels' pitching coach Bud Black has stepped in as manager to replace Bruce Bochy, inexplicably allowed to walk away from the team despite an impressive run of success in San Diego. Black has no previous managing experience, but has built a reputation as quite the pitching guru. Pitching isn't exactly the Padres' weak spot, however. Key question: Who's the fifth starter? Right now the team has Mike Thompson penciled in, although equally unproven Tim Stauffer could also have a shot. However, GM Kevin Towers has said he'd prefer a veteran to man the slot. Could that mean David Wells, the free agent who finished the season with San Diego before supposedly retiring? The Padres are certainly talking to him with more urgency these days after missing out in the Randy Johnson sweepstakes. The fact that the Unit landed on a division rival only heightens that urgency for San Diego. Re-signing free agent Chan Ho Park is another option. Jeff Weaver is also still out there, and should begin to get more serious consideration now that most of the big names are off the market. He's probably going to want even more than Jeff Suppan got, which is too much, in other words. Tomo Ohka is also still available, but the Padres better move quick if they have interest in him because he reportedly has a few multi-year offers on the table already. The Padres have brought back Shawn Estes who made one start for them as the number five man last year before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Estes got a minor league deal, but won't be ready to contribute until the all-star break, if then. Fantasy sleeper: Is Kouzmanoff the power hitter the Padres so desperately crave or just the next victim of Petco? He slugged .660 at Double-A and barely slowed down at Triple-A before the Indians called him up last year. If Kouzmanoff can't win the job, Branyan provided evidence last year that he isn't a total washout and his power could be prodigious. Otherwise, Branyan may see time in the outfield. With the Pads desperate for a power bat, each of these players should get long leashes. Projected Lineup LF Terrmel Sledge 2B Marcus Giles RF Brian Giles 1B Adrian Gonzalez CF Mike Cameron 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff/Russell Branyan C Josh Bard SS Khalil Greene Rotation Jake Peavy Chris Young Greg Maddux Clay Hensley Mike Thompson/Tim Stauffer Bullpen Trevor Hoffman, closer Scott Linebrink Cla Meredith Key Bench: Branyan, Todd Walker, Cruz, Geoff Blum. On the Horizon Cedric Hunter, OF: The Padres' third rounder last season looks like one of the steals of the draft after tearing up the Rookie Arizona League and winding up hitting .364 combined over two levels. He's no Matt Bush, and that's a good thing. Cesar Carrillo, RHP: The Padres' first rounder from 2005, Carrillo was the team's top pitching prospect at Double-A before moving up to Triple-A last year. Unfortunately, after just one Triple-A start he had to shut it down for the season because of a sore elbow. If the 22-year-old righty is healthy, he can help the big club this season.