Online Gambling, Online Sportsbooks at Eye on Gambling provides Live Odds Sports News Free Picks Sports Betting and Gambling Odds Online at eog.com - View Single Post

Hache Man · 01-12-07, 09:04 PM

Expert League Drafts
Christmas day is here and I've already taken part in two baseball drafts. Last Monday, Rotoworld held its mock draft for the upcoming baseball annual, and the very next day, I participated in the Krause Publication Experts League draft. Both were 12-team mixed league drafts using a 5x5 scoring system. Sadly, I had the ninth pick in the mock and 10th in the Krause, but I was due for some bad luck there. I had first pick in the Krause League two years ago and then the second pick when I won last season.

Here's a review of the two drafts and my rather similar looking teams. I'll focus a little more on the Krause League, since that's the one that's going to be played out.

Round 1
Rotoworld - Pick No. 9 - Chase Utley
Krause - Pick No. 10 - Vladimir Guerrero

The way I see it, there's a clear top eight, headed by Albert Pujols and Johan Santana. After that come Alex Rodriguez, Utley and Jose Reyes, though I'm not sure of the order yet. Next up are Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Howard. I was thrilled to get Utley ninth in the Rotoworld League. With Soriano gone to the outfield, there's a massive gap to the No. 2 second baseman, and even throwing out any positional adjustment, Utley stacks up well enough that he'd place sixth among outfielders in my rankings.

Obviously, I was less excited about the Guerrero pick. My top eight happened to be the first eight guys drafted. Carlos Beltran then went ninth, leaving me to choose between Vlad and Miguel Cabrera. As loaded as third base is, I went with the outfielder.

Round 2
Rotoworld - Pick No. 16 - Chris Carpenter
Krause - Pick No. 15 - Chris Carpenter

The top hitters left on my board were Bobby Abreu in the Rotoworld league and Mark Teixeira in Krause. I won the Krause League with pitching last year and was perfectly willing to try it again.

Round 3
Rotoworld - Pick No. 33 - Bobby Abreu
Krause - Pick No. 34 - Vernon Wells

I was stunned to find I had my pick of Abreu or Miguel Tejada in the Rotoworld League. The Krause draft, however, wasn't being so kind to me. Abreu, Tejada, Joe Mauer, Hanley Ramirez, Jason Bay, Michael Young were all drafted in the seven picks immediately preceding mine, and I was considering every one of them. In the end, I was happy just to get Wells, as I saw a substantial drop off to the next hitter (Justin Morneau).

Round 4
Rotoworld - Pick No. 40 - Jake Peavy
Krause - Pick No. 39 - Jake Peavy

In both cases, Santana and Carpenter were the only pitchers off the board. Getting my No. 3 starter at pick No. 39 seemed like an easy choice. None of my hitters had slipped.

Round 5
Rotoworld - Pick No. 57 - Adam Dunn
Krause - Pick No. 58 - Brandon Webb

Five more starting pitchers and two closers had gone in the Rotoworld League. I went best available hitter, knowing I'd take a closer on the way back around. In the Krause League, just three more starters had gone, and my No. 5 guy was still sitting out there. Dunn was again the top hitter on my board, but I thought Webb provided more value.

Round 6
Rotoworld - Pick No. 64 - Billy Wagner
Krause - Pick No. 63 - Billy Wagner

My No. 4 closer.

Round 7
Rotoworld - Pick No. 81 - Mike Piazza
Krause - Pick No. 82 - Adam Dunn

As a full-time DH and cleanup hitter in Oakland, Piazza is a better bet as a fantasy catcher than he has been in years. I have him ranked third behind Mauer and Victor Martinez.

Getting Dunn here in the Krause League was a nice surprise. I'm going to need the power after investing so much in pitching, and if things shape up as hoped, I can finish weak in one or two hitting categories and still contend.

Round 8
Rotoworld - Pick No. 88 - Julio Lugo
Krause - Pick No. 87 - Jeff Kent

I thought I had shortstop taken care of in both leagues here. I selected Dunn in the Krause League knowing both teams drafting in between my picks already had shortstops. It turned out I got a nasty surprise when Felipe Lopez was picked anyway. He was the only one of my top 10 shortstops still on the board, and I wasn't ready to draft Edgar Renteria. Instead, I picked Kent, my No. 4 second baseman.

Round 9
Rotoworld - Pick No. 105 - Brad Lidge
Krause - Pick No. 106 - Brad Lidge

A good time to grab that second closer. I have Lidge ranked as the No. 8 reliever.

Round 10
Rotoworld - Pick No. 112 - Jason Schmidt
Krause - Pick No. 111 - Rocco Baldelli

I was set to take Alex Rios in the Rotoworld draft, but he went the pick before mine, causing me to choose my No. 11 starter instead. In the Krause League, I thought I was going to be able to select from between Rios and Baldelli, but Rios went at No. 108. I was leaning toward Baldelli anyway. I have Rios slightly higher now, but he stands to lose more if traded.

Round 11
Rotoworld - Pick No. 129 - Hank Blalock
Krause - Pick No. 130 - Jeff Francoeur

I currently have Rios 18th, Baldelli 20th and Francoeur 21st among outfielders. Francoeur isn't going to help in steals, but since the complete lack of walks gives him more chances for homers and RBI, I'm pretty high on him as a fantasy outfielder.

Round 12
Rotoworld - Pick No. 136 - Lyle Overbay
Krause - Pick No. 135 - Ivan Rodriguez

Overbay wasn't the top player on my board, but I still didn't have a first baseman and every other option remaining ranked far lower.

In a two-catcher league, Rodriguez looked like a solid pick here. I can't get excited about him, but he'll hit in a pretty good spot in a pretty good lineup.

Round 13
Rotoworld - Pick No. 153 - Bronson Arroyo
Krause - Pick No. 154 - Hank Blalock

I've drafted Blalock in a lot of leagues over the years, but I really thought that would change this time around. Guess not. In shallow mixed leagues like this, there's just so much depth at third base right now that I don't think it makes much sense to pick one in the first 10 rounds. It turned out that I made a mistake picking him in the 11th round in the Rotoworld League. Blalock's stunning lack of progress frustrates me to no end, but he's still just 26 and he's in a great situation in Texas. If he returns to 2003-04 form, he's a big-time bargain here.

Round 14
Rotoworld - Pick No. 160 - Octavio Dotel
Krause - Pick No. 159 - Rich Harden

I had a choice between Harden and Curt Schilling in the Krause League. Harden graded out higher in my preliminary projections, but I'm probably going to knock him down a bit. Still, it's hard to win experts leagues without taking some chances. I'm gambling on upside here.

Round 15
Rotoworld - Pick No. 177 - Jose Contreras
Krause - Pick No. 178 - Lyle Overbay

Following Dunn and Blalock, Overbay becomes the third player I was able to get two or three rounds later in the Krause League. Having the Rotoworld draft a day earlier is paying off now, though I'm still not as happy with the Krause draft as I was with the previous one.

Round 16
Rotoworld - Pick No. 184 - Eric Chavez
Krause - Pick No. 183 - Freddy Sanchez

I had third base taken care of, but Chavez was clearly the top player left on my board. In fact, I have him projected to finish with slightly better numbers than the first baseman I drafted four rounds earlier.

Sanchez fills my hole at shortstop in the Krause League. There won't be many homers or steals there, but he can maintain a .300 average and he should do fairly well in runs and RBI as the Pirates' No. 3 hitter.

Round 17
Rotoworld - Pick No. 201 - Aubrey Huff
Krause - Pick No. 202 - Octavio Dotel

Huff becomes third baseman No. 3. I don't know who he'll end up signing with, but he looked like a better option to plug into my outfield than any of the alternatives available.

Picking Dotel here gives me the same three closers on both teams. I considered Jose Valverde and Mike Gonzalez instead, but there's been talk about the D'Backs acquiring Akinori Otsuka and Gonzalez could be a setup man if traded.

Round 18
Rotoworld - Pick No. 208 - Brian Giles
Krause - Pick No. 207 - Chris Duffy

I was also strongly considering going Duffy in the Rotoworld League, but he was picked at No. 205. I'm not especially high on Duffy, but there are few better bets for early-season steals. Time will tell whether he'll get on base often enough to hold on to his starting job. I don't think he's going to be a long-term regular.

Round 19
Rotoworld - Pick No. 225 - Edwin Encarnacion
Krause - Pick No. 226 - Jose Contreras

I'm a big Encarnacion fan. Not only can he hit 25 homers, but he might also steal 10-12 bases. He fills the DH spot in the Rotoworld League.

Four rounds later for Contreras in the Krause League. I currently have him 31st among SPs.

Round 20
Rotoworld - Pick No. 232 - Jason Kendall
Krause - Pick No. 231 - Gerald Laird

I also had Kendall to choose from in the Krause League. He's my No. 13 catcher, followed by Laird at No. 14. In this case, Laird's power seemed to be a better fit.

One note: up until this point, I had drafted the Rotoworld League as if we were playing it out. However, since there were five common members between the two drafts, I decided I was going to save a couple of my favorite end-game picks for Tuesday. Encarnacion was one guy I was planning on saving, though I ended up drafting him anyway. Another was Chris Burke, who I would have taken in this spot in the Rotoworld League. It turned out that he was chosen at the beginning of Round 19 in the Krause League.

Round 21
Rotoworld - Pick No. 249 - Orlando Hudson
Krause - Pick No. 250 - Edwin Encarnacion

Hudson looks like a pretty good alternative to Burke, especially if he bats second regularly.

Encarnacion becomes the 10th common player between the two teams and the sixth that I picked up at least two rounds later in the Krause League. There's no better draft strategy advice that I can offer than to recommend that people do practice drafts. It's not hard to find people online willing to take part in mock drafts. The better idea you have of where players are going to go, the better your drafts are going to look.

Round 22
Rotoworld - Pick No. 256 - Ted Lilly
Krause - Pick No. 255 - Chuck James

In the Krause League last year, I got six of my top 29 pitchers: Pedro Martinez, Harden, Schilling, Webb, Contreras and Erik Bedard. This time, I settled for six of my top 40. I'd probably drop James immediately if the Braves traded him, but I don't think that will happen.

Round 23
Rotoworld - Pick No. 273 - Chris Young (OF)
Krause - Pick No. 274 - Jose Vidro

Young was actually the No. 122 pick in the Krause League. I think that's high, but I like him a lot as a late-round pick in mixed leagues.

As a full-time DH, Vidro could be a pretty nice MI. Jhonny Peralta is one guy I would have taken over him, but he went at No. 252.

Krause League Team
C - Ivan Rodriguez (12)
C - Gerald Laird (20)
1B - Lyle Overbay (15)
3B - Hank Blalock (13)
CI - Edwin Encarnacion (21)
2B - Jeff Kent (8)
SS - Freddy Sanchez (16)
MI - Jose Vidro (23)
OF - Vladimir Guerrero (1)
OF - Vernon Wells (3)
OF - Adam Dunn (7)
OF - Rocco Baldelli (10)
OF - Jeff Francoeur (11)
DH - Chris Duffy (18)

P - Chris Carpenter (2)
P - Jake Peavy (4)
P - Brandon Webb (5)
P - Rich Harden (14)
P - Jose Contreras (19)
P - Chuck James (22)

P - Billy Wagner (6)
P - Brad Lidge (9)
P - Octavio Dotel (17)

I wasn't all that pleased with this draft at first. I had to settle for lesser hitters than I would have liked early on, and I know I don't have quite as much talent as I did last year. Still, I'm warming up to it, mainly because I know I couldn't have done any better. It's obvious the competition was better prepared than it was a year ago. I took value when it was there and I didn't reach to fill any needs, specifically those at shortstop and first base. There's not one instance where I can say "I never would have chosen player A there had I known player B was still going to be available five rounds later."

And as for going pitching heavy again, I really didn't think I was left with a whole lot of choice. Maybe I would have been better off with Teixeira in round two and Schilling instead of Overbay in round 15, but if Carpenter can throw 200-220 innings again, I think my pair has the edge. I used to preach offense, offense, offense, just like most experts, but I think it's gone too far. When I play in mixed leagues with friends, I still tend to end up with one starting pitcher in the first 10 rounds, mostly because they go faster, leaving more value in offense. In the experts leagues, everyone is so offense heavy that the value is with the pitching. It'll probably swing back the other way eventually. Until then, I suppose I'll keep trying my luck with the aces.

01-12-07, 09:04 PM	#2
Hache Man Moderator "Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak" Join Date: Aug 19, 2005 Location: Orlando, Florida Posts: 62,331	Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007 Expert League Drafts Christmas day is here and I've already taken part in two baseball drafts. Last Monday, Rotoworld held its mock draft for the upcoming baseball annual, and the very next day, I participated in the Krause Publication Experts League draft. Both were 12-team mixed league drafts using a 5x5 scoring system. Sadly, I had the ninth pick in the mock and 10th in the Krause, but I was due for some bad luck there. I had first pick in the Krause League two years ago and then the second pick when I won last season. Here's a review of the two drafts and my rather similar looking teams. I'll focus a little more on the Krause League, since that's the one that's going to be played out. Round 1 Rotoworld - Pick No. 9 - Chase Utley Krause - Pick No. 10 - Vladimir Guerrero The way I see it, there's a clear top eight, headed by Albert Pujols and Johan Santana. After that come Alex Rodriguez, Utley and Jose Reyes, though I'm not sure of the order yet. Next up are Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Howard. I was thrilled to get Utley ninth in the Rotoworld League. With Soriano gone to the outfield, there's a massive gap to the No. 2 second baseman, and even throwing out any positional adjustment, Utley stacks up well enough that he'd place sixth among outfielders in my rankings. Obviously, I was less excited about the Guerrero pick. My top eight happened to be the first eight guys drafted. Carlos Beltran then went ninth, leaving me to choose between Vlad and Miguel Cabrera. As loaded as third base is, I went with the outfielder. Round 2 Rotoworld - Pick No. 16 - Chris Carpenter Krause - Pick No. 15 - Chris Carpenter The top hitters left on my board were Bobby Abreu in the Rotoworld league and Mark Teixeira in Krause. I won the Krause League with pitching last year and was perfectly willing to try it again. Round 3 Rotoworld - Pick No. 33 - Bobby Abreu Krause - Pick No. 34 - Vernon Wells I was stunned to find I had my pick of Abreu or Miguel Tejada in the Rotoworld League. The Krause draft, however, wasn't being so kind to me. Abreu, Tejada, Joe Mauer, Hanley Ramirez, Jason Bay, Michael Young were all drafted in the seven picks immediately preceding mine, and I was considering every one of them. In the end, I was happy just to get Wells, as I saw a substantial drop off to the next hitter (Justin Morneau). Round 4 Rotoworld - Pick No. 40 - Jake Peavy Krause - Pick No. 39 - Jake Peavy In both cases, Santana and Carpenter were the only pitchers off the board. Getting my No. 3 starter at pick No. 39 seemed like an easy choice. None of my hitters had slipped. Round 5 Rotoworld - Pick No. 57 - Adam Dunn Krause - Pick No. 58 - Brandon Webb Five more starting pitchers and two closers had gone in the Rotoworld League. I went best available hitter, knowing I'd take a closer on the way back around. In the Krause League, just three more starters had gone, and my No. 5 guy was still sitting out there. Dunn was again the top hitter on my board, but I thought Webb provided more value. Round 6 Rotoworld - Pick No. 64 - Billy Wagner Krause - Pick No. 63 - Billy Wagner My No. 4 closer. Round 7 Rotoworld - Pick No. 81 - Mike Piazza Krause - Pick No. 82 - Adam Dunn As a full-time DH and cleanup hitter in Oakland, Piazza is a better bet as a fantasy catcher than he has been in years. I have him ranked third behind Mauer and Victor Martinez. Getting Dunn here in the Krause League was a nice surprise. I'm going to need the power after investing so much in pitching, and if things shape up as hoped, I can finish weak in one or two hitting categories and still contend. Round 8 Rotoworld - Pick No. 88 - Julio Lugo Krause - Pick No. 87 - Jeff Kent I thought I had shortstop taken care of in both leagues here. I selected Dunn in the Krause League knowing both teams drafting in between my picks already had shortstops. It turned out I got a nasty surprise when Felipe Lopez was picked anyway. He was the only one of my top 10 shortstops still on the board, and I wasn't ready to draft Edgar Renteria. Instead, I picked Kent, my No. 4 second baseman. Round 9 Rotoworld - Pick No. 105 - Brad Lidge Krause - Pick No. 106 - Brad Lidge A good time to grab that second closer. I have Lidge ranked as the No. 8 reliever. Round 10 Rotoworld - Pick No. 112 - Jason Schmidt Krause - Pick No. 111 - Rocco Baldelli I was set to take Alex Rios in the Rotoworld draft, but he went the pick before mine, causing me to choose my No. 11 starter instead. In the Krause League, I thought I was going to be able to select from between Rios and Baldelli, but Rios went at No. 108. I was leaning toward Baldelli anyway. I have Rios slightly higher now, but he stands to lose more if traded. Round 11 Rotoworld - Pick No. 129 - Hank Blalock Krause - Pick No. 130 - Jeff Francoeur I currently have Rios 18th, Baldelli 20th and Francoeur 21st among outfielders. Francoeur isn't going to help in steals, but since the complete lack of walks gives him more chances for homers and RBI, I'm pretty high on him as a fantasy outfielder. Round 12 Rotoworld - Pick No. 136 - Lyle Overbay Krause - Pick No. 135 - Ivan Rodriguez Overbay wasn't the top player on my board, but I still didn't have a first baseman and every other option remaining ranked far lower. In a two-catcher league, Rodriguez looked like a solid pick here. I can't get excited about him, but he'll hit in a pretty good spot in a pretty good lineup. Round 13 Rotoworld - Pick No. 153 - Bronson Arroyo Krause - Pick No. 154 - Hank Blalock I've drafted Blalock in a lot of leagues over the years, but I really thought that would change this time around. Guess not. In shallow mixed leagues like this, there's just so much depth at third base right now that I don't think it makes much sense to pick one in the first 10 rounds. It turned out that I made a mistake picking him in the 11th round in the Rotoworld League. Blalock's stunning lack of progress frustrates me to no end, but he's still just 26 and he's in a great situation in Texas. If he returns to 2003-04 form, he's a big-time bargain here. Round 14 Rotoworld - Pick No. 160 - Octavio Dotel Krause - Pick No. 159 - Rich Harden I had a choice between Harden and Curt Schilling in the Krause League. Harden graded out higher in my preliminary projections, but I'm probably going to knock him down a bit. Still, it's hard to win experts leagues without taking some chances. I'm gambling on upside here. Round 15 Rotoworld - Pick No. 177 - Jose Contreras Krause - Pick No. 178 - Lyle Overbay Following Dunn and Blalock, Overbay becomes the third player I was able to get two or three rounds later in the Krause League. Having the Rotoworld draft a day earlier is paying off now, though I'm still not as happy with the Krause draft as I was with the previous one. Round 16 Rotoworld - Pick No. 184 - Eric Chavez Krause - Pick No. 183 - Freddy Sanchez I had third base taken care of, but Chavez was clearly the top player left on my board. In fact, I have him projected to finish with slightly better numbers than the first baseman I drafted four rounds earlier. Sanchez fills my hole at shortstop in the Krause League. There won't be many homers or steals there, but he can maintain a .300 average and he should do fairly well in runs and RBI as the Pirates' No. 3 hitter. Round 17 Rotoworld - Pick No. 201 - Aubrey Huff Krause - Pick No. 202 - Octavio Dotel Huff becomes third baseman No. 3. I don't know who he'll end up signing with, but he looked like a better option to plug into my outfield than any of the alternatives available. Picking Dotel here gives me the same three closers on both teams. I considered Jose Valverde and Mike Gonzalez instead, but there's been talk about the D'Backs acquiring Akinori Otsuka and Gonzalez could be a setup man if traded. Round 18 Rotoworld - Pick No. 208 - Brian Giles Krause - Pick No. 207 - Chris Duffy I was also strongly considering going Duffy in the Rotoworld League, but he was picked at No. 205. I'm not especially high on Duffy, but there are few better bets for early-season steals. Time will tell whether he'll get on base often enough to hold on to his starting job. I don't think he's going to be a long-term regular. Round 19 Rotoworld - Pick No. 225 - Edwin Encarnacion Krause - Pick No. 226 - Jose Contreras I'm a big Encarnacion fan. Not only can he hit 25 homers, but he might also steal 10-12 bases. He fills the DH spot in the Rotoworld League. Four rounds later for Contreras in the Krause League. I currently have him 31st among SPs. Round 20 Rotoworld - Pick No. 232 - Jason Kendall Krause - Pick No. 231 - Gerald Laird I also had Kendall to choose from in the Krause League. He's my No. 13 catcher, followed by Laird at No. 14. In this case, Laird's power seemed to be a better fit. One note: up until this point, I had drafted the Rotoworld League as if we were playing it out. However, since there were five common members between the two drafts, I decided I was going to save a couple of my favorite end-game picks for Tuesday. Encarnacion was one guy I was planning on saving, though I ended up drafting him anyway. Another was Chris Burke, who I would have taken in this spot in the Rotoworld League. It turned out that he was chosen at the beginning of Round 19 in the Krause League. Round 21 Rotoworld - Pick No. 249 - Orlando Hudson Krause - Pick No. 250 - Edwin Encarnacion Hudson looks like a pretty good alternative to Burke, especially if he bats second regularly. Encarnacion becomes the 10th common player between the two teams and the sixth that I picked up at least two rounds later in the Krause League. There's no better draft strategy advice that I can offer than to recommend that people do practice drafts. It's not hard to find people online willing to take part in mock drafts. The better idea you have of where players are going to go, the better your drafts are going to look. Round 22 Rotoworld - Pick No. 256 - Ted Lilly Krause - Pick No. 255 - Chuck James In the Krause League last year, I got six of my top 29 pitchers: Pedro Martinez, Harden, Schilling, Webb, Contreras and Erik Bedard. This time, I settled for six of my top 40. I'd probably drop James immediately if the Braves traded him, but I don't think that will happen. Round 23 Rotoworld - Pick No. 273 - Chris Young (OF) Krause - Pick No. 274 - Jose Vidro Young was actually the No. 122 pick in the Krause League. I think that's high, but I like him a lot as a late-round pick in mixed leagues. As a full-time DH, Vidro could be a pretty nice MI. Jhonny Peralta is one guy I would have taken over him, but he went at No. 252. Krause League Team C - Ivan Rodriguez (12) C - Gerald Laird (20) 1B - Lyle Overbay (15) 3B - Hank Blalock (13) CI - Edwin Encarnacion (21) 2B - Jeff Kent (8) SS - Freddy Sanchez (16) MI - Jose Vidro (23) OF - Vladimir Guerrero (1) OF - Vernon Wells (3) OF - Adam Dunn (7) OF - Rocco Baldelli (10) OF - Jeff Francoeur (11) DH - Chris Duffy (18) P - Chris Carpenter (2) P - Jake Peavy (4) P - Brandon Webb (5) P - Rich Harden (14) P - Jose Contreras (19) P - Chuck James (22) P - Billy Wagner (6) P - Brad Lidge (9) P - Octavio Dotel (17) I wasn't all that pleased with this draft at first. I had to settle for lesser hitters than I would have liked early on, and I know I don't have quite as much talent as I did last year. Still, I'm warming up to it, mainly because I know I couldn't have done any better. It's obvious the competition was better prepared than it was a year ago. I took value when it was there and I didn't reach to fill any needs, specifically those at shortstop and first base. There's not one instance where I can say "I never would have chosen player A there had I known player B was still going to be available five rounds later." And as for going pitching heavy again, I really didn't think I was left with a whole lot of choice. Maybe I would have been better off with Teixeira in round two and Schilling instead of Overbay in round 15, but if Carpenter can throw 200-220 innings again, I think my pair has the edge. I used to preach offense, offense, offense, just like most experts, but I think it's gone too far. When I play in mixed leagues with friends, I still tend to end up with one starting pitcher in the first 10 rounds, mostly because they go faster, leaving more value in offense. In the experts leagues, everyone is so offense heavy that the value is with the pitching. It'll probably swing back the other way eventually. Until then, I suppose I'll keep trying my luck with the aces.