Read this post BEFORE you send a red cent to Dsethi.

[Journeyman]

Great post originally posted by BuffetGambler....

One of the most common blunders in which people make in trying to decipher the quality and sustainability of returns of a small sample is not recognizing the tactical style in which the handicapper derived the majority of returns. For example, people that had solid years in pro football three years back most derived their returns on their tactical style, rather than a pertinent fundamental capping system, unless they bet predominantly dogs are an equal distribution of dogs/favorites. Solid performances derived while employing a tactical style that establishes EV on its own should be deemed very weary of sustainability in the long run. As far as Dsethi is concerned, it is quite evident his tactical style is betting on large ML favorites, and I commend him for generating nice returns. However, lets not be blind to the fact that ML favorites in almost any spread distribution filter has generated alarming returns on their own, implying blindly and unsystematically betting a set of ML favorites in a parlay would generate a profit this season. Parlaying a positive EV tactical styles only magnifies the positive value due to the underlying mathematics behind a parlay. Briefly going over Dsethi’s week by week performance, and the correlation behind favorites winning and his returns is overwhelming. His two best weeks occurred in weeks in which 8 to 16 point favorites won 130 of their 143 games- two weeks in which he actually decisively underperformed the tactical style in which he employed. If I spent the time to run some quant models on his performance, I would probably conclude that an overwhelming part of his performance ytd is the tactical style (in which has not been deemed a profitable long term style without selectivity) compared to the selectivity of his picks.

Another thing I have trouble understanding is his notion that he doesn’t inflate units, when he has been betting 2-4 units per play on a daily basis. How is not betting more than the standard assumed benchmark of 1 unit (risk or win) not inflating units? Risking 400% more than the customary benchmark suggest is quite high in my eyes, as is risking over 50 units in one day (which he did yesterday). However, it sure beats these forum participants that bet 20, 50, 100 units per play, and even have the ability to use the words “power plays/units” (when I have never had the luxury of betting “power” units in my accounts). And from my understanding, he runs cleaning accounting tallies, somewhat rare in forumland.

Dsethi has every right to do what he is doing, and I commend him on a solid season. However, I would proceed with caution (as I would with anyone selling picks), and sit back and digest the small sample and the abnormal performance behind his tactical style during the duration of implementation.
Best of luck with your endeavors.

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Jman,

I recommend you give the writer of this post credit. Just a thought.

[raycabino]

Who wrote this?

[Journeyman]

translation- Dsethi has has a good year but so have the ML favorites, you would be a fool to pay for this at this point...and like i said earlier he is clearly trying to cash in while the iron is hot!

His sample size is much too small and anyone hopping aboard the ML parlay train at this point, is at best expected to ride down those 'market correction' tracks and the ML train is very likely to completely derail.

"caveat emptor"

And it was not long ago Dsethi was calling himself names and saying things about his capping like 'I suck at this' 'you would be crazy to follow me' and now all the sudden he's sharp enough to sell you his opinions.

BOL to all boarding this train, you will surely need it.

[Journeyman]

Originally Posted by OSUCOWBOYS

Jman,

I recommend you give the writer of this post credit. Just a thought.

Absolutely , I was still in the creative thread mode and didn't realize I had not giving proper credit to the post.

Very important info IMO.

[TomBrady#1]

Originally Posted by Journeyman

translation- Dsethi has has a good year but so have the ML favorites, you would be a fool to pay for this at this point...and like i said earlier he is clearly trying to cash in while the iron is hot!

His sample size is much too small and anyone hopping aboard the ML parlay train at this point, is at best expected to ride down those 'market correction' tracks and the ML train is very likely to completely derail.

"caveat emptor"

And it was not long ago Dsethi was calling himself names and saying things about his capping like 'I suck at this' 'you would be crazy to follow me' and now all the sudden he's sharp enough to sell you his opinions.

BOL to all boarding this train, you will surely need it.

I really believe this is common sense. You just can't bet ML favs parlays and win consistently. It ain't happening over time. I have no doubts on that. That is probably my one and only comment on this topic.

[Glenn Danzig]

How do you sell picks and where do you buy them? Grocery store? Mall?

Please answer seriously.

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Originally Posted by raycabino

Who wrote this?

Buffettgambler was the author.

[Tuckman]

phew, i was getting worried, it was almost 1pm est and there was no new thread with drama involved...Dont get me wrong, as i tried to inquire about how huge favorites were doing this year so i could assemble something to the nature buffet did, but i didnt have the resources or even know how to...

http://forums.eog.com/online-sportsb...ts-122844.html

If he can seriously sucker any misfits into paying for something like this, to tell them to bet 3 12 point favorites straight up, then more power to him, i'm kinda jealous...I just cant believe there is anyone out there that will pay for this kinda guidance...

[Journeyman]

Originally Posted by TomBrady#1

I really believe this is common sense. You just can't bet ML favs parlays and win consistently. It ain't happening over time. I have no doubts on that. That is probably my one and only comment on this topic.

This kind of reminds me of 3 NFL seasons ago when the favs were covering at an alarming rate, squares were runnign wild that winter.

I know Dsethi will think I'm taking a cheap shot at him for this but this should be common sense as much as anything, I'm sure there will be a few suckers boarding the train either way.

I can't imagine him charging much to begin with, because these forums generally hate touts.

You gotta love the reasons why people decide not to post picks any longer and it's always very conveniently coming off a hot streak or season, 'just tired of being bashed so I'm selling the picks now'

Surely you cannot blame him as we have seen others 'cash in' just because they get hot Bucsfan and Ace Ace come to mind.

[Journeyman]

Originally Posted by Tuckman

phew, i was getting worried, it was almost 1pm est and there was no new thread with drama involved...Dont get me wrong, as i tried to inquire about how huge favorites were doing this year so i could assemble something to the nature buffet did, but i didnt have the resources or even know how to...

If he can seriously sucker any misfits into paying for something like this, to tell them to bet 3 12 point favorites straight up, then more power to him, i'm kinda jealous...I just cant believe there is anyone out there that will pay for this kinda guidance...

This isn't a drama thread at all.

Most would agree, few would admit it or start a thread pointing it out.

[Tuckman]

Originally Posted by Journeyman

This isn't a drama thread at all.

Most would agree, few would admit it or start a thread pointing it out.

well considering there is a thread like 4 below this 1 pointing it out, to actually start a new thread about it about such a topic, will only cuz drama when he calls in his backup to praise and lick his nuts for the success he has had this year betting duke vs a division 2 team straight up

[Journeyman]

Originally Posted by Tuckman

well considering there is a thread like 4 below this 1 pointing it out, to actually start a new thread about it about such a topic, will only cuz drama when he calls in his backup to praise and lick his nuts for the success he has had this year betting duke vs a division 2 team straight up

Well if you put 1 milion on that game you would surely make 750 bucks.

[dirty]

Originally Posted by Journeyman

This kind of reminds me of 3 NFL seasons ago when the favs were covering at an alarming rate, squares were runnign wild that winter.

I know Dsethi will think I'm taking a cheap shot at him for this but this should be common sense as much as anything, I'm sure there will be a few suckers boarding the train either way.

I can't imagine him charging much to begin with, because these forums generally hate touts.

You gotta love the reasons why people decide not to post picks any longer and it's always very conveniently coming off a hot streak or season, 'just tired of being bashed so I'm selling the picks now'

Surely you cannot blame him as we have seen others 'cash in' just because they get hot Bucsfan and Ace Ace come to mind.

bucsfan and ace ace in the same sentence is not realistic and uncalled for

[Tuckman]

Originally Posted by Journeyman

Well if you put 1 milion on that game you would surely make 750 bucks.

i mean it is kinda ironic that the first day he goes "dark" and hides his plays only to paying customers he drops a 10 unit bomb on a 3 team parlay with a 14 1/2, 12 1/2 and 9 point favorite... the odds of this losing are like what 3%? what a marketing scheme though, get a few winners off the bat to keep the suckers coming back for more..

[Journeyman]

Originally Posted by dirty

bucsfan and ace ace in the same sentence is not realistic and uncalled for

Pointing out that they both cashed in for having a very good streak was all.

I don't think Bucs is fooling anyone.

[Bucky]

You guys could write a book on why not to buy picks from a tout. What things would a tout need to do to prove his integrity that would sell the populace? What type of documented volume would earn respect?

I don't want to disrespect another website but anyone can sign up to be a tout there - just pony up the dough. But, from the customer's standpoint it is impossible to get documented tracking that is credible.

In other words, if you were going to be a tout and do it right - how would you do it?

Oh, btw, I have my opinions on the subject - and you tell me yours and I'l tell you mine - you want to go first?

[BEANTOWNJIM]

WELCHER WHY DONT YOU GIVE OUT YOUR PICKS THE SAME ONES THAT GOT YOU IN THE HOLE 6,0000 DOLLARS WHO PICKED THE GAMES FOR YOU MIKE WAS IT YOUR HUSBAND SHRINK.


39 YEARS OLD AND JOURNEYMANS JOB IS A POSTER IN A FORUM.YOU MUST FEEL REAL GOOD WHEN YOU LOOK AT YOURSELF IN THE MIRROR IN THE MORNING HUH WELCHER

AT LEAST DESETHI IS TRYING TO DO SOMETHING IN LIFE WHAT ARE YOU DOING MIKE SELLING FLYERS

[Journeyman]

I think Dsethi means well, I really do.... I think him and his brother are really smart guys in general even....And I don't think him trying to cash in is a bad thing in any way and i'm not surprised at all.

I think they both probably hold their own, Raj is usually doing 'okay' at the very least and Dsethi seems to be pretty well versed in what's happening, most should be though if they spend this much time in the game.

This CBB run is not indicative of whether or not he's on to something .