The Chase

[coachp]

Thanks SSI- action only. some of my books automatically go to pitchers on O/U, but look for action on the others. Fully: I'm with SSI- great discussion- The only thing guys is I have nothing to offer right now. I'm just a leach soaking up all of your data and taking advantage of your hard work. So thank you!

[SSI]

dont want to dampen anyone's spirits but if we take a (70 unit) loss, somewhere along the way, that will be hard to take. im preparing myself mentally for that, as im expecting to play at a (100:1) ratio..

anyway, here is where i sit on the ( 3 Chase Systems) coming into thursday april 24 and ill only list the record for what ive actually played but i can give some back data, if anyone wants it.

The Chase: 9-0 (+9.00 units) (+$180) (322-1 since the 2005 season)


plays for thrusday april 24

Chase 10
a) Baltimore Over 9 (-1.10) $22 to win $20

Chase 11
a) Seattle Over 9 (-1.10) $22 to win $20

and yes guys, i know they are playing each other but both are on 5 game (Under) streaks and this will be treated as 2 separate streaks. If this game goes Under tonight, ill be on Balt Under tomorrow, as well as Seattle Under.

thats all for today, with (The Chase)



Action Chase: 1-0 (+1.00 units) (+$20) (totally opionated and handicapped)

play for thursday april 24

Action Chase 2
a) Mets Over 9 (+1.00) $20 to win $20 (greek)
this is a play on the Mets to go (Over) the posted total in one of their next 6 games. This is (Not Mechanical) and just my opinion. Ill never have more than one of these going at once.

Runline Chase: 1-0 (+1.00 units) (+$20)
combined record for (april 07 and april 08) (26-0)

play for thursday april 24

Runline Chase 2:
a) Im assuming this is going to be a play on the Tigers today, there was a pitching change and no line is up, as of now. it looks to be Bonderman against Feldman.

ill post the exact line, as soon as it hits the boards, because thats the one that i want to play.

later.

[SSI]

adding for thursday april 24

Runline Chase 2
a) Tigers -1.5 (+1.00) $20 to win $20
Bonderman/Feldman must go.

thats all today for me, ill be in and out, if anyone needs any info, ill be running some back data today and taking it easy.

good luck on your wagers.

[coachp]

Thanks SSI!

[SSI]

ok, i need to step in here and update this.

there was a pitching change in the det/tex game. i found this out and re-bet detroit anyway. so the play will still look like this.

Runline Chase 2
a) Tigers -1.5 (+1.00) $20 to win $20

i may not have should have played this, as the reds went off as the biggest favorite today but i did anyway. I hate these last minute things, i can keep up with them (via my local) when im away but i cant always rush to post.

the score is tied at (1-1) in the 3rd, as i type this. so im stuck with the wager and thats how it will be kept, win or lose.

good luck, just wanted to explain this.

[FullyEclipsed]

Originally Posted by SSI

personally i love the discussion. looks like some good numbers on the fish..... the only snag may be in the juice... laying (-1.30) or so, several times in a row, may cause that last bet (6th bet) in your chase to be really large. that juice will push those bets. make sure your book or books will take that last bet, if you have to make it.

also wanted to tell Coachp, if your reading this....... the Chase wager or the Action Chase wager, will always have to be an "Action" bet, as its solely based on the teams (O/U) performance.

back thursday morning, before the day games start..

You are 100% correct on the wager limits. Prop bet that only has a $300 limit at both my books. Would hardly be worth playing for such a small amount.

I still think there is something here though. I ran 06 Marlins and the numbers were brought back to reality with 91 Yes scores and 71 No score. The longest streak was a 7th game. Series total 47-5.

Maybe it has to be treated as The regular chase..?.. 3 Yes/No (depending on team) in a row trigger the betting..

I'm on both Sea/Balt with you.

[SSI]

FE, i thought that would be a problem with the prop bet (limit), when your talking about a 6 deep martingale.

i did manage to run (May 2007) with the (Runline Chase), so that gives me 3 months worth now (april & may 07, along with april 08)

april 07: 14-0
may 07: 17-0 (Two 4 game losing streaks but no 5)
april 08: 13-0 (with the tiger win today)
combined: 44-0

Runline Chase: 2-0 (+2.00 units) (+$40)
(13-0 for april 08)

the tigers came thru for me today. looking back thru the back data, many days this may be a judgement call, when your comparing (-1.71) to (-1.75) and there is still 5 minutes to first pitch.

in those cases, im going to just make up my mind and go with it. i realize this will take some of the mechanical aspect away from it but i have no choice as i dont want to sit and wait, every day to the last minute.

back later.

[coachp]

Great job on the Tigers-- You and Fully are looking into great stuff. Thanks again and good luck to all of us tonight.

[SSI]

so far, i have no data, telling me that the (Runline Chase) wont be succuessful.

april 07: 14-0
may 07: 17-0
june 07: 13-0
april 08: 13-0

pretty good numbers but still that one loss will be a killer, then we have the regular (Chase) thats lost only one time since the 2005 season.

if for some reason, i cant post every single day, no one will need me for these 2, as they are mechanical.

im still looking for one more mechanical angle (system) to play for baseball, thats if -- i dont stick with the (Action Chase)......

then im off to the NHL and NBA for research, to use next season. the whole process for me, is shifting to this style of play...

back later.

[coachp]

Mets over!

Thanks!

[FullyEclipsed]

Things are looking good. Always nice when 2 teams meet going for the same direction we needed on both.. And it hits...

The R/L chase is a great one. The thing that worries me the most with it is you do have to make some judgment calls as to who is going to be the biggest favorite when it goes off the board.

Out of curiosity have you tracked how deep each chase has gone on the R/L chase? If they haven't been going too deep it could definitely leave some room for human error..

Side note for you and coachp, I am still coming up with my game plan on the 1st inning chase. I am disappointed in the limited bets but I may just have to get a 3rd book to play for a higher amount. (I'll start a new thread when it's ready to go.)

[coachp]

Thanks Fully- Like I told SSI- I should have more time in the coming months - but tied up now and you two are saving me a lot of time by doing all of this work. Thanks to both of you for helping me.

[coachp]

Oh, not to only saving me time- but I would have never come up with anything like this. Thanks guys!

[SSI]

dont thank me until we can get over (70 wins)...

Here is where we sit, coming into friday april 25th.

The Chase: 11-0 (+11.00 units) (+$220)(324-1 since 2005)

nothing pending and no plays tonight. an unusally high % of our plays are ending after the 4th game, thus ending out shot at a play. couple of setups tonight, we need texas to play an Over tonight.

Action Chase: 2-0 (+2.00 units) (+$40) (totally opionated)

ill post a play later today, ive got it narrowed to 2 but i will only have one of these open at a time, since this is not mechanical. nothing is pending here either, as the Mets blew Over the posted total last night.


Runline Chase: 2-0 (+2.00 units) (+$40)

this is probably going to be profitable but its going to be slightly subjective, at the moment, it appears our play tonight will either be the (wsox or brewers) as both are at home and both sit around (-1.60) at the moment, im leaning (Wsox) and today, i can only wait until (3:30 pm cst) to make the call, as im going out tonight.... but im very comfortable in playing it, in this fashion.. nothing pending here.


on a side note, i was using this, in a thread in the nba room, entitled "Pattern Betting". i posted 9 Patterns and 8 are now closed with a Win. The remaining one left open, is a play on the (Spurs Under) and coincidentally, they have played (5 straight Overs) now. so if your following this, i highly suggest looking at a (Spurs Under) tonight but this is only my suggestion and totally off the record.

back later today, with the 2 plays.

[SSI]

i mis-spoke in my last post. i was not using the spurs Under, in the Pattern Betting Test. i was using the Mavericks and all they need to do, is beat the Line in of the next 2....

However, the information was correct. the Spurs have played 5 straight Overs and are still guaranteed (4 more games, minimum)...

back later.

[munson15]

Are you still running the dogs +1.20 to +1.70? I like the looks of this runline chase. Thanks, and keep up the good work.

[coachp]

Just saw the NBA post- You have had a great week. Good luck with your reserarch. Thanks again.

[The General]

SSI, Thank you for your posting ol' friend. I've always read your ideas since connecting with you on the net.

Take care my friend.

[SSI]

thanks guys (General Pete).... i basically enjoy kicking around ideas.... soon and ever so slowly, im going to be moving my base bet up from ($20)... i probably wont even mention it here.

CoachP, its been a good week, just too bad the wagers are small.

Munson.... i stopped playing the dogs but i still have the records from the day that i stopped and you can easily see how its done by looking at Covers. if i get some time today, ill give you an update. The dog plays are really not for me, i have trouble taking all the Losses... Im not saying it cant be profitable, im saying its "Not my cup of tea". Ill try and get you an update.

as for the R/L Chase... it had Zero losses in (april, may, june of 07) and so far no losses in april 2008...... cant get much better than that......... unless you compare it to the regular (Chase), One Loss since 2005.

ive got to wrap this up by (3:30 pm) today, so ill be back soon.

[SSI]

Action Chase 3
a) Pirates Over 9.5 (-1.10) $22 to win $20

play on the Pirates to go Over the posted total in one of next 6 games.

Back later with the (R/L) Chase, its looking like the WSOX for me in that, also highly recommend a chase on the (Spurs Under).

[coachp]

Oh yes- if we knew then (a week ago) what we know now!!!! Yeah- it would have been great to have bet more- but would've - could've - should've...

Thanks again!

[SSI]

CoachP, its hard to go up much --- because of what it will do to that 6th bet. playing for only $20 will cause the 6th bet to be over $800... I could allocate more money to this project, as i can get down with a local for 2k per game but we are in the beginning phases of what i hope is going to be a long and profitable process.

If we make it to say (20-0), im probably going to move up to a base play of ($25)...

[SSI]

ive got to finish this off for friday april 25

The Chase: 11-0 (+11.00 units) (+$220) (324-1 since 2005)

nothing pending and no-plays for friday.


Action Chase: 2-0 (+2.00 units) (+$40) (totally opinion)

Action Chase 3
a) Pirates Over 9.5 (-1.10) $22 to win $20
play on the pirates to go (Over) the posted total in one of next 6 games.

Runline Chase: 2-0 (+2.00 units) (+$40)(13-0 on the season)

Runline Chase 3
a) Whitesox -1.5 (+1.30) $15.40 to win $20

small risk today and im comfortable with the play. ive got to go out and i dont know if ill make it back before first pitch, so this is the best i can do today and what ill be playing.

also highly recommend that if you are taking part in the chase to play the spurs (Under) the total tonight. im on the Under 195 but this is totally off the record.

back later tonight or saturday.

good luck with y