Saturday Plays...

[truebluefan]

Just an embarassing day today and I apologize to anyone who followed me. After a real solid month this snapped me back to reality a bit and back to work with Saturday's plays. Hope things get better and GL to all!

Atlanta/Washington Under 8 (Even)- Plenty of runs were had tonight, but I feel that Hanson and Lannan are in good enough form to shut down two lineups that have holes in them. Hanson hasn't given up a run in his last three starts, where as Lannan had a great June and has his ERA down to 3.45 on the year. I think one guy has a real solid game and you get a game like 5-1.

Milwaukee +143- I know Looper is very shaky, but the Brewers have improved on the road and they have been .500 and I just don't see how the Cubs are favored by this much. Yes, Harden had a real nice start against Pittsburgh, but the home runs and walks are still there and it will impair his results until straightened out. The Cubs have hit just .243 over their last 10 games and I think the Brewers are the better team.

Houston/SF Over 7 (-125)- I like this spot because the Astros got shut out tonight and also because I don't see Ortiz sustaining his current ERA. Ortiz is carrying a very solid ERA, but his WHIP is still 1.45 and the Giants are a team that actually hits fairly well at home with a .279 average. Linecum has been nearly unhittable but the Astros have guys with power and I think they will scratch out a few runs, while the Giants do the heavy lifting.

Florida -133- I really wished I would have backed the Pirates tonight, but tomorrow I think the Fish are where the value is. Duke to me will regress because he doensn't miss enough bats and I always like Florida against LHP. Miller has been very solid at home with a 3.22 ERA and the Marlins have won 4 of his 6 starts. The Pirates are not a good road team and I don't like this spot for them.

Arizona/Colorado Over 10 (Even)- Tough to back an over with a team that hits like Arizona, but the overs have been coming in at Coors and I think there is value here. Petit simply cannot get anybody out and I expect the Rockies to have much success agianst him. Cook has a sketchy past history against Arizona and he really has made his money on the road this year as he has a 1.47 WHIP at home and the sinker just doesn't work as well at Coors.

Boston -220- Usually hate playing games with this much juice, but I just love the spot for Boston. They are facing a kid in Olson that has major HR issues at Fenway and they hit .284 against LHP. Penny has been very solid off late with a 2.70 ERA and I think the Sox will come back motivated after dropping an extra frame game tonight.

KC +111- Floyd has been on a tear of late, but I am still not a big enough fan of CWS. Hochavar has been very good at home with a 1.16 WHIP and he has been nearly as good as Floyd of late. The Royals offense has been horrible, but they have a solid history against Floyd and I think the Royals are the value play here.

Minnesota -111- The Twins dropped a tough game tonight, but I feel there are once again where the value is. They are still 24-16 at home and Liriano is stating to get his stuff back as he has nearly a strike out per inning in his last three starts. Jackson is having a great year, but I will be looking long and hard at fading him in the second half because of a high work load thus far. The Twins are just as good as the Tigers and they are solid value at home.

TB -132- The Rays statistically may be the best team in baseball and even with dropping the first game in the set I love them tomorrow night. Holland has no business in the big leagues right now and he is facing a team that hits .282 against LHP on the road. Price has not had the year I am sure he would have liked, but the stuff is still there and he gives his team a major SP edge in this game.

LAA -155- The O's had value tonight, but not at all tomorrow night. They are just 12-24 on the road because they don't get people out and Berken will do nothing but add to this as he has a 1.62 WHIP on the year. O'Sullivan has been very solid in his three starts with a 1.28 WHIP and the Angels have won all three. The Angels have dominated this series and they are solid value at this price.

[gynecologist]

I think Duke will regress too brother..

Hate to be against you in the KC game, White Sox bats are on fire, KC's not so much. GL with the other ones.. LAA looks too good to be true to me, I swear I was thinkin the line would be -175

[winkyduck]

i am also on CWS and i am on Texass - Price is a fraud. laying -1.5 with angels and HELL WILL FREEZE OVER before i lay -220 on ANY MLB game - lay -1.5 but -220 is not a good play at all

[diogee]

Good luck TBF...we all have bad days.

Have a great 4th.