Week 13 MLB action

[NattyBumpo]

8 out of 12 Weeks ending with a profit.

176-198-4 overall (+4.65 units)

Dropped the ball last week. Cant let it happen again.

Monday action:

902 - Pittsburgh -102 vs Cubs (1.1 unit)

Cubs stink. Pittsburgh is playing very good in June and is tough at home. We also have a pitching edge and Duke is solid at home and in very good form coming into this game. Hitting numbers slightly favor the Buckos also. Wrong team favored at this time. Pitt also stays home while Cubs travel off a rivalry and I cant imagine they can beat a better team on the road when they cant come away respectably in the hometown battle against the White Sox.

906 - Milwaukee -128 vs NY Mets ( 1.5 units)

Mets coming off the wrong end of an emotionally draining sweep with a big rival and have to travel late night to Milwaukee who have won three straight at home. Nieve vs Looper looks to favor the Mets but Nieve is still green and there is enough video now for advance scouts to get a game plan for the Milwaukee bats. Looper is not my favorite pitcher to back but gotta play the situation and the win streak vs the losing streak.

911 - Colorado +107 @ LA Dodgers (1 unit)

Gotta go to the well one more time with the hot team as a dog. Cant believe I only played them once against Oakland but a lot of it had to do with some hot pitchers on the Oakland side. Rockies got it done anyway and I think they will take advantage of Wolf, who I feel has been a bit shaky lately. Wolf will be a lot more comfy in Dodger stadium but Jimenez has been better. Think well have a hitting advantage as well.

Good luck and Peace.

[gynecologist]

ALRIGHT I'm already on Milwaukee..

[xbaggypants]

GL Natty, on COL with ya!

[NattyBumpo]

Thanks guys:

Adding:

923 - Detroit -110 @ Oakland (1.1 units)

Leaned this way earlier and love the line move. Gynos write up says it all and Porcellos chance for a milestone win for a rookie has me convinced we get a full effort from the Tigers.

2 Tm parlay:
919 - Angels +118 @ Texas w/under 10.5 -105 ((0.4 units) to win 1.3 units

With the way Texas has been embarrassed by deception type pitchers lately, Ill give OSullivan a shot. Figure this line is a bit high with the way Texas has been scoring lately and the Halos will have to keep em down again to win this one. Padillas been pretty decent against the Angels too. I like the offense the Angels have been putting together lately (even though I dislike them personally) so Ill try a low risk parlay.

Caution: the 2 tm parlays have been duds for me lately.

Peace.

[NattyBumpo]

I know this is a tad late but Im just getting in and want this to count on my record.

913 CWS +100 @ Cleveland (1 unit)

[NattyBumpo]

I like the way the Sox have been hitting lately and think the trade of DeRosa is a big blow to the Indians clubhouse.

Read a quote of Kerry Wood saying this trade was a result of the failure of the Indians as a "Team" to play up to expectations. I find this extremely rich. Cant imagine the "team" or Cliff Lee (in particular) find his remarks amusing. Skerry Kerry is personally responsible for a handful of losses by himself in which the Indians had a large lead.

[diogee]

With ya on the Rocks...Tigers and White Sox looked too great to me so I scared myself off of both. Good luck NatBump.

[NattyBumpo]

3-3 for Monday (+0.27 units)

I rank Randy Wolfes' fake time out to advance the runners on a balk with A-Roids "I got it" to distract the infielder on a pop up. Jimenez should have put the next pitch in his ribs. Now thats bush league.

Tuesday action:

967 - Seattle/NY Yanquis over 10 +100 (1 unit)

Mariners not an offensive jugernaut but things have been picking up for them. Theyll need runs to compete with Morrow on the hill, who is little more than a long relief pitcher. So far the longer he goes the more he gives up. Chamberlain is overated in my opinion. Although the Yanks could cover this by themselves, I feel Seattle might add a few of thier own. And of course we get the newest home run capital in MLB..... Yankee Stadium.

960 - Milwaukee +125 vs NY Mets (1 unit)

Milwaukee is always a live dog at home and with the shape the Mets are in of late they are even more so. Yes the great Santana is taking the hill but be aware of a few things: 1 - Games in which he recieves run support are few and far between. 2 - He is a fly ball pitcher in a park that is not kind to fly ballers and the Brewers tend to like leftys at home. 3 - Although he is smart enough to limit damage in most cases, he has been very human and tending to walk a thin line in a majority of his recent outings. Burns is a wild card but that might help since the Mets wont have a good game plan on him.

961 - San Fransisco +182 @ St Louis (1 unit)

Frisco has been hot lately. I know Carpenter is one of the best arms around right now but hell have to be at his best to get another win with the way the Cards have been hitting and scoring of late. The Big Unit seems to be getting better and better as the season progresses and with a handfull of really strong outings over the month I will gladly take him at this price. Total of 7 shows the books dont expect a lot of scoring so it could be one big swing of the bat that wins this. With Frisco hot and the Redbirds not I like the odds here.

965 - Colorado +159 @ LA Dodgers (1 unit)

Billingsly has not been as good of late as he was earlier in the year. The fact that he pitches half his games in spacious Dodger stadium and Marquis pitches half his in Coors field makes me discount the disparity in each pitchers ERA. Marquis is a quality pitcher and the Dodgers are not as hot as many would like to believe. Theyre around .500 for June while the Rockies are the much hotter comodity during this period. Ill take this generous number with the team that is playing better at this time.


Good luck and Peace.

[gynecologist]

Hope those doggies hit 4 ya

[NattyBumpo]

Dogs are mans best friend.

[Just Luck]

Looking at the Giants and Rockies myself both are very hot teams and have competed in nearly every game the last month. If you go 1-1 with them at + money you have a profit and 2-0 would be sweeeeeeettttt. Good luck today.

[xbaggypants]

Rox looks like a winner to me.

[winkyduck]

Originally Posted by xbaggypants

Rox looks like a winner to me.

Looooooooooooooooooooooooove them today

[Firehorn]

Good Luck Natty.

[NattyBumpo]

Lots of great Karma in this thread today. Thanks for the support guys. Got the makings of a big night on this card. Getting good vibes. Shoulda had a good night yesterday but the Gambling gods want to make a Job out of me. Dont worry, I wont lose faith. I love doing this too much to throw in the towel.

[NattyBumpo]

4-0 for Tuesday (+5.66 units)
7-3 for week 13 (+5.93 units)

Got a big card full of dogs for Wednesday. Mike Vick.... eat your heart out:

901 - Washington +150 @ Fla (1 unit)

922 - KC -105 vs Minnesota (1.1 unit)

905 - Colorado +135 @ LA Dodgers (1 unit)

925 - CWS +110 @ Cleveland (1 unit)

927 - Seattle +159 @ NY Yanquis (1 unit)

913 - SF +124 @ St Louis (1 unit)

2 tm parlay
929 - Anaheim +100 @ Houston w/ under 9.5 -120 (0.5 units)
to win 1.33 units

2 tm parlay
915 - Houston -117 @ SD w/ over 8.5 -110 (0.5 units)
to win 1.27 units

Too many plays and not enough time for writes tonight guys.

Good luck and Peace.

[Just Luck]

Great day today Natty really like the Rockies and Giants tomorrow Good Luck.

[NattyBumpo]

1-6 for Wednesday (-5.0 units) ... "Its DeJaVu all over again"

8-9 for Week 13 (+0.83 units) "Scared money dont make money".

Lost a lot of close ones yesterday. Shouldve done a little better. Lets move on to Thursday action:

2 tm parlay:
968 - Pitt -138 vs Mets w/under 8.5 -115 (1 unit)
to win 2.22 units

Both teams have line up issues right now and the early wake up with travel on both ends definitely is a dissadvantage for the Mets. Maholm is strong at home and gives the Pirates the decided pitching edge here.

956 - Atlanta -140 vs Philly (1.5 units)

Liking Vasquez in this spot, who should rightfully have a lot more wins under his belt, and Brave bats might be starting to liven up a bit. Like the fact that Atlanta has a three game win streak and Philly is still struggling. Happ is coming off a huge complete game shutout at Toronto and has been shelled off his only other shutout this year. Atlanta is a tad better vs leftys and thier experience should get to Happs limited repetoire.

960 - Cubs -144 vs Milwaukee (1 unit)

960 - Cubs RL +140 (0.5 units)

Cubs bats getting better and cant see any reason to think McClung is Milwaukees newest secret weapon. Dempster is a solid starter that has had some rough outings of late, but I feel he can make a strong start here. I feel he is overdue for a good outing and his good days are excellent. Brewers got to him early in the year in Miller park but that was ages ago and we have a more favorable vunue tonight. Im looking at possibly fading the Brewers and feel the Cubs might be about to get thier act together.

Still considering playing the Padres tonight but its gonna be tough to pull the trigger.

[NattyBumpo]

3-1 for Thursday (+1.46 units)

11-9 for Week 13 (+2.29 units)

Friday action:

902 - Cubs -163 vs Milwaukee (1.5 units)

The difference between Suppan and Zambrano: Suppan is a very poor pitcher who has just enough good to really good starts each year to keep him in the big leagues. Zambrano is a really good pitcher who implodes just enough to make you scratch your head and say "can I trust this fucker at -163?" The question for today is: "Do ya feel lucky punk..... well, do ya?"

Think its time to start playing the Cubs, and yes ... I feel a little lucky too. Problem here is, the books are on it like white on rice. Might not be much value on the Cubs in the near future. Oh yeah, the Cubs have won four in a row and Milwaukee hits the road off a 5-4 homestand.

904 - Florida -145 vs Pittsburgh (1 unit)

904 - Florida RL +135 (0.5 units)

Florida has had a playoff caliber month of June and continue thier homestand riding a 3 game win streak hosting Pittsburgh. With the last round of trades it looks as if the two most fadeable teams in the league right now are Cleveland and Pittsburgh. I dont have a lot of faith in Mortenson (or any pitcher Bobby Cox is willing to farm out) and see a lot more upside in Volstad who should manage a quality start against the swiss cheese and morally downtrodden Bucko lineup.

919 - Oakland +108 @ Cleveland (1 unit)

Continuing with the most fadeable teams theme here and getting a plus price on a future Multi Million dollar Yankee pitcher in Trevor Cahill. Looks like Billy Bean is at it again with another future free agency darling. Oakland has tagged a couple of so so leftys of late and Im betting Huff is next on the list.

925 - CWS +130 @ KC (1 unit)

Looks like the White Sox bats are coming around with the pitching and we might have two Chicago teams to "buy" on right now. Might get some actual value as the Sox hit the road. Tough to go against Greinke but not tough to go against the Royals right now. Everything but Greinke sucks right now on the Royals, so its a good thing Zach wont be hitting in this one.

Good luck and Peace.

[gynecologist]

Thanks for everything you do here bud.

[diogee]

Always love the little writes...Florida looks solid to me. Best of luck.

[NattyBumpo]

My fade the Indians and Pirates theory bit the dust today. Not sure why, but Im not gonna play against them tomorrow or possibly the rest of the weekend series til Im sure the Universe is back in proper alignment. Saturdays games should tell the real tale so Im gonna sit back on these and watch very closely. Still think the Cubs are a team that might be starting to bust out, but they didnt look too hot at the plate today. With Hardens home/daygame splits I will have to pass on them, even if its a very tempting 3 win home team vs a 3 loss road team juicy system play. Glad you like the writes Diogee, I have fun with them even if they dont always pan out.

2-3 for Friday (-0.15 units)

13-12 for Week 13 (+2.16 units)

Saturday action:

971 - CWS -119 @ KC (1.5 units)

971 - CWS RL +140 (0.5 units)

Well heres one bold prediction that seems to be panning out for the time being. Sox hit the shit out of Greinke today. I like Hochevar since he was last recalled from the minors but Floyd is and has been much better. The KC bats are also whiffing quite a bit also. Gonna ride the Ozzie crazytrain as long as I see good value and winning ways.

Quite a few leans for Saturday, but had some sort of reservation on each. Just figured its not my time to spread a lot of dough on a bunch of half hearted plays. Some I passed on were Colorado, Cubs, Dodgers and Detroit. Ill be pissed if these all win but its ok as long as the White Sox come through.

Good luck and Peace.

[gynecologist]

Love it!!! Hope its an EZ no sweat win for you..

[Just Luck]

Gonna follow with you and Gyno on the same side of the hottest team in the league it looks good to me Happy 4th and be safe.

[Just Luck]

Happy 4th gotta tail you on the Sox you and Gyno on the same side looks good to me

[NattyBumpo]

Sorry Just Luck.
Some..... (scratch that) lots of times, shit happens. Just by looking at the board and some of the headers it would seem were not alone in having a frustrating fourth.

Well as tempting as it seems to take my pitiful +0.16 units and call it a profitable week I think Ill..........

Sunday action:

904 - Florida -168 vs Pittsburgh (1 unit)

904 - Florida RL +130 (0.5 units)

It should be safe to go back in the water with the Fish now that the Pirates have been fed to the sharks. Better pitching matchup favoring the Marlins too as they attempt to win the series against a divisional rival. Probably no distractions and a high priority with a west coast trip to SF next. Nolasco is an all star compared to Ohlendorf as long as the earth is turning properly on its axis. It does wobble from time to time though, as we all know. That is .... unless your name is FIREHORN. Ha.

906 - Philly -104 vs NY Mets (1.25 units)

Santana cool aid is full of sugar and low on fiber but Blanton sports drink contains healthy vitamins and minerals. Sugar is expensive but vitamins get you through the day feeling vim and not sooooo vigorish. Been eyeballing this Philly homestand ever since Philly hit the road off a great previous homestand. So far so good. Ill adopt this puppy.

911 - Arizona +101 @ Colorado (1 unit)

Looking for holes and little opportunities to grab value against the Rockies now that thier stock is sky high. This game presents an opportunity as the Rockies have wrapped up a series win (assuming they dont blown the lead they currently hold) and another probable sweep on the incoming Nationals. Cocksuredness may be it at its peak. Getting a great price on a hot commodity in Haren, who has rather good day game splits and a a revenge match with Jimenez from much earlier in the season. Both of Harens starts against the Rockies have been stellar with 1 run in 14 innings. Zona team members beginning to wake up and call each other out. Expect some full focused efforts in the near future.

916 - SF -104 vs Houston (1.25 units)

Public still underestimating the Big Unit. I think something is really right with him recently and he just seems to be getting stronger and stronger. Oswalts numbers have really dipped in my view this year. Hes coming off a couple of above par starts and his last is a powerful complete game vs the punchless Padres. I dont wish to sound like I think Oswalt is a bum but even if his emmediate numbers appear better than Randys I tend to grade guys a little differently and I like Johnson better. At any rate Oswalt is due down and coming off a complete game, two things I like to bet against unless its an "ace" caliber guy which Oswalt is definitely not this year. I also think SF has been tagging a lot of quality pitching of late while the Astros only success has been against the below par type pitchers. Another home puppy comes home with Natty, although I doubt its justified.

930 - Texas +125 vs TB (1 unit)

A couple of system type angles exist in this game. Most prevalant is that the Rays have lost three in a row and are a road favorite. Its nice that Texas is a pretty good team also. Feldman is a quality pitcher who I think has stumbled a little in his last two starts and is quite capable and due for a big effort. Garza can be a heart attack much of the time. The pressure will be on for him to get ahead in the count, cause base runners turn into crooked numbers quite quickly when the temp rises in Arlington. Should be around mid to high nineties. Texas know what to do with fastballs over the plate. Another nice home puppy comes home with Natty.


Hopefully this damn kennel of yappers earn thier keep and I can turn them in for a profit tomorrow. Til then I have to go shovel some crap off my patio.

Good luck and ruff.... I mean Peace.

[NattyBumpo]

My god, the Rockies imploded. Fuckin Cook.... whyd he have to jack himself. Totally different game if he doesnt leave. Maybe.... not sure if this bodes well for my Zona action tomorrow. Totally different situation with a rubber game. Maybe the D-Backs bats awakening and taste of blood spurs them on. Sure the Rockies wont be as complacent as I was hoping though.

[gynecologist]

unbelievable the shit that happens to me..

[NattyBumpo]

Originally Posted by gynecologist

unbelievable the shit that happens to me..

I think most of the forum had a crapper of a day today Gyno. Maybe the Rockies can rally. A blown save would really help my Zona action tomorrow. I could use a bonus angle on that game.

[NattyBumpo]

Thankee Jesus for a strong finish.

5-1 for Sunday (+3.46 units)

18-13 for Week 13 (+3.62 units)

194-211-4 overall (+8.27 units)

See ya next week.

[BigOrange]

Good job Natty