[EJLuv99]

5 pt teaser
+200 odds
Duke +1
KanSt +9.5
Stan +2
Pitt +3

5pt Teaser
+150 odds
KanSt +9.5
Kan -8.5
Pitt +3

5pt teaser
+150 odds
Stan +2
Kan -8.5
Ucla - 5
feels safe , maybe they have wings ...
leery of Pitt losing but ooh well , will take a shot .

[EJLuv99]

I am hesitant on Stanford also , but like the fact they are playing in Calif .
TexAM should look lost playing Ucla in Calif , maybe not right , but is an advantage play with an angle .
Other possible angles ? KanSt with Bease making history with a lil run before he leaves for the $ . There are other angles you guys know about I'm sure .

MichSt ? it seems like a stretch putting $ on Drew Neitzel but MichSt is a team that returned all 5 starters from a 23 win team last year . This year they flew under the radar as nothing special , but are they really nothing special ?
Same thing with Marquette .
Kansas ? should Unlv even put their sneakers on ?

I felt as though I was among the informed going against #3 seed Xavier and picking Ga to reach the sweet 16 . Sometimes it is better not to know too much and just be a casual fan when picking the tournament .
No way Unlv will win a game this year in the tourney right , after surprising last year with a different team .
If I didnt follow it all year I would have picked Unlv , WKy , Xavier and Purdue (maybe Vill too ) . Yes , as a casual fan I would have picked KY and Usc and those 2 would have been wrong .
Just some thoughts . No , I would have never picked Sienna or Sd in any state of being .

How does all that mumbo jumbo apply to the round of 32 ?
Ooh it's real , for sure .
Casual fan picks for saturdays round of 32 :
Duke
Wisc , but is tainted with the prescence of a star for KanSt
Xavier
ND
Stan
Kan
Ucla and some
not sure how to categorize the Pitt game as MichSt is the better basketball name but people know Pitt has been hot , am lost on that one .

Looks like ND would be the only u-dog the average joe would pick if we did a 100,000 person work survey , more or less .
Yes , this has so much gray it is mind boggling .
The favs seem to get the most play so much .
So , why cant Duke , Stan , Kan , and Ucla be +pts , why cant they be the dogs ? We all know there is no such thing as a true fav at this time in the tourney . -3 pts ? - 4 pts ? -13.5 ? - 10 pts ?
While these might not be the best examples , there is always sundays games .
When yes everything can go to hell if you take the favs .

Let me see , officiating , the most critical key factor in these games bar none. Vandyyyyyyy wtf was that ? 25 ft attempts to 12 ft attemps for Vandy ? I watched it and we all know there was some bias or just some bad judgement . No sense debating that though because we would have to go over the game film to make any sense of accuracy in point .
Yeah I know , Siena was just hot from 3 pt land and actually had a couple guys play like their names could be Mike and Larry . Or should that be Larry and Mike . haha just kidding . plz
So , we all know that any of these teams have guys that for one game could be Mike and Larry . (and that would be that , gametime , its over , I lost , how ? I dont believe this shit ! haha

[EJLuv99]

Truly informed and on top of it all right ! Is hard to be even close to 100% informed with so many sports but yes I did factor in and even talk about how Vandy IS NOT at home in their funky gym .... I thought they would win because I watched them beat Tenn for one strong reason , yes they won in Vandy !!!! Not in freakin Tampa Fla ...
So now I must truly consider taking Siena on sunday right !
If not for the big first half and amazing shooting from 2 key players the game would have been completely different .
Vandy felt the heat and played with less confidence than if the game was tight or if they had the lead . Their gameplan was wacked out in the 2nd half to be able to make the big comeback . Never even felt a breeze of positive momentum . No big swings just because I needed them to win .
I say all that to say , Siena did not look so great in the 2nd half when their shots stopped falling . If they played the 2nd half like the 1st then it was Vandys win . So , will the 2nd half Siena show up against Villanova or the 1st half lights out in your face miracle lookin Siena show up ?
I think I will take Siena just for principle .

Siena ? I am talking about Siena that just beat the Vanderbelt Commodores ?
That's crazy , but at the same time I had an sec team that lost the sec player of the year (Byars) and were not anything special away from home .
My first 4 picks out the box were perfect and I never ever in a million years would have thought that possible . I wrote down WVa , TexAM , Davidson and Miss St on paper wed night . No way all 4 would win , I didnt even play them all on 1 parlay . The list goes on of perfection that I passed on .
The reason is more financial than stupidity or being so called disciplined .
Am being patient .

[EJLuv99]

Stan - 2 -130 hesitant , not sure if it is legit worry . Marq scares me . Okla and Purdue should go down so Marq could be the only 6 seed to reach the sweet 16 . Like Stan +2 on teaser but something about this game doesnt seem right . ahh , fact that Stan is not that great maybe .
Ucla -10
Kan -13 -120
Kan St. +5 -120
Would love to see ND win .
Had Xavier losing to Ga so how could I pick them now .
Duke game should go down to the wire , these 2 teams are as even as it gets in this spot . Not confident enough though to take WVa because there is no superstar so I dont feel comfortable going with the 3 ballers . Duke rely alot on the 3 too , this game is tough one . No way Duke should be -4 though , makes no sense .

Lovin Louisville for sunday , imagine the line will be 5.5
3 vs 6 line should not be too bad .
But since we should know this , could be bet up to 7.5
Cant see how this game would not be a 9 or 10 pt plus margin of v . Pitino get em straight !

Lovin Davidson +5 .
I even like Mia +7 -130 (to knock Tex off in bracket) sounds shaky I'm sure but taking the favs
on the biggest stage always has a warning label I think . Why is anyone favored !! ( with exception of the Tarheels and the Jayhawks ooh and Memp and Ucla , too many elite teams this year ) COULD IT ALL PAN OUT AS EASY AS IT LOOKS WITH THE #1 SEEDS ? I can see Stan beating Memp but not if Marq knocks Stan off .
Like Siena , how they come up with that line will be interesting . Should be no line . Vill will be - 2 or 3 because they come from a bigger conference . Siena could be the cinderella story reaching 16 and I am hoping Davidson too . KanSt #11 seed is another strong candidate to reach 16 . ( a 10 , 11 and 13 seed making sweet 16 ? sounds like a stretch ) one should make it though .

note to self :I may be delirious after losing with Vandy to Siena .
I think I may know what I am talking about though .

Reduce the # of selections to 3 teams for today ?
Kan -13 -120
KanSt +5 -120
Ucla -9 -130

[EJLuv99]

KanSt 0 - 13 from 3 pt land could only happen once in a tourney .

Looking for sunday to be juicy for some dogs . But who ? Siena Davidson
seem to stand as good a chance as any .
Butler could be scary but could Tenn really not be one of the elite this year ?
Tenn may not be what we want them to be , but I hope Tenn takes care of Butler for a possible Tenn vs Unc showdown .
Man , I doubt Tenn will even get by Lville for that classic matchup to happen .
I know Sd is a feel good pick right but WKy should win . WKy returned all 5 starters from last year in case you didnt know , they also were labeled as a potential sleeper nationally before the season began . WKy also has a key in the formula to break though to 16 . 2 senior guards , one we can call great and a very nice bench .
Yes , but so what , Sd gets 5 or 6 pts and this game could be decided by 5 very easily right . Yeah , I will just leave that game alone most likely and save some $ .
MiaFla ? yes I need MiaFla to pull the upset in a bracket contest of fam and friends , also need WestVa to make the sweet 16 , love it that they get to play Xavier but would have loved it more if they got Baylor or Purd .
I need Stanford to make it to 16 also , it would work out perfect if MiaFla beats Texas so Stan could crush Mia and reach the 8 .

So , does Mia have any shot against Texas ? This is not a hockey game , it is not the 123rd game in the mlb year , it is not the last week in nba in a game that has no consequence .... all that to say picking these games SU is not the same as other sports . The dogs win in other sports like clockwork , but in the Dance it is a biggg stretch trying to get teams like Mia , WKy , Siena , Sd , Ark , Davidson , and Butler , in the sweet 16 . Is hard to get em in the damn round of 32 for real . Ah . ND ? yeah , I knew no way in hell they would beat WashSt , turned out to be a joke game . Why ? funny . We can just say it just happened to turn out that way right .

So does Mia have a good chance at beating the Texas Longhorns ?
Whoever would say ooh yeah they stand a good chance would be in the minority I'm sure . When Durant left , this team was still looked at conference wise to have talent comparable to Kansas . Well , here they are in the round of 32 , but guess what , that may be as far as they go , is a who knew special for sure . I would not take MiaFla on the ml , I would take the pts and pray .
Plzzzz , what will happen on sunday ?

I actually see the Unc game as no walk in the park , 11 pts ? crazy .
This game will not be decided by more than 10 pts .
My pick for the 1st #1 seed to fall was Ucla but damn not tonight !!!
Ucla is down by 10 . We all know Ucla will win .

Games at Tampa Fla on sunday are Siena vs Vill and Sd vs WKY
We all know that all 4 dogs and the lower seed won in Tampa on friday right . Well we have a serious due theory brewing here with the next fav and better seed to be good su and ats in Tampa , yes that would be Villanova . Damn . Goes against my talk about Siena having a great shot to make 16 . Oh well .
As I typed Ucla making a lil run , lets go Bruins !

[EJLuv99]

5 pt Teaser
+150 odds
Volunteers -0.5
Dav Wildcats +10.5
Cardinals -2
Try a new approach in writting the team name for luck . How could this not be good ! If it is no good I will be shocked .

5 pt teaser
+200 odds
Siena +10.5
Tex -2 happy either way
Butler +9.5
WKy

5 pt T
+350 odds
Tenn
Davidson +10.5
Louisville -2
Unc over 153 too ez
Mia +12

Selections picking 6 games :
Siena +6 -120
MiaFla + 8 -130 fight the power
WKy no way in hell could give up pts but WKy to advance .
Davidson +6 -120 cinderella you there ?
Louisville -6 -130 hate giving tourney pts up just like Ucla and Stan , screw jobs
Ark +12 -130 fast paced to much offense for +12 to fail
Unc over 158 yikes 84 - 75

Might as well take (jack up) the pts with Butler and MissSt too but will pass and see what happens . I jack it up higher than I type on forums because I believe going plus money is always better than going backwards .
Is on a play by play basis though , sometimes its good to give up the pts and feel comfortable . Tournament games the later we get in the rounds ... it would be a positive outcome if you took the pts in every game starting with the sweet 16 . Would come out ahead most likely .
This is how I feel anyway .
Obviously depends on who is playing . I can see the late rounds in half the games being decided in the last minute and also the dog winning outright . duh right .

Simple strategy for making a single play on sunday :
Who looked the most impressive in their last win ?
We would have to say Unc and they are playing in their home state .
Okay , who came in 2nd ?
I just talked my self out of Ark but I love teasing the over 153 .
2nd would be hard to say but Mempis that I never even talked about and they were no good ats in the first game .
Who looked the best to you in round 1 that play sunday might be an easy way to go 1 - 0 !
It may not mean anything what they did last game or it may work perfect .
I still like Ark +12 and over 153 .

Note : Tenn and Memp were the only favs to win and not cover when these same teams played on friday . 11 of favs won su friday . The dogs that won friday that play sunday are WKy and SD that square off sun , Siena and Villanova that square off sunday . The only other dog to win su was Ark .
You would have to think alot to try and create a realistic picture in what this all means . As always applies to any brainstorm , it may mean nothing .

If I had to make it mean something I say there is a dog that will win 2 in a row as a dog on sunday . So that would have have to be either Siena , SD or Ark . That is something , I could keep storming but feeling crazy for even sharing this .
One more ? There is a reason Tenn and Memp failed to cover ? Or they hit the 500 mark and cover their second game ? They did win by 24 and 15 respectively right . Now the spreads are a mere 4.5 and 9 .
Man , fuck this shit . j/k
Tenn and Memp advance and the best move would be to tease em down to avoid getting screwed like in the Stan game and the Ucla game .
Okay , I will stop there . Sorry if I ramble , have only good intentions always , no matter what .

[EJLuv99]

Seeing alot of pro cappers on Unc -11 as well as the public . Not sure how anyone can see it unfolding like this .
Ark will be no pushover to say the least .
Honestly , FOR THIS GAME , we can throw everything out the window . It doesnt matter what conference they are from , who they played , who they beat . It is part of handicapping to know these things for each game but some games you can forget all that stuff , this may be one that falls into that category .

Biggest flag I see for this game is the location of the game in Car , but so what , its not like Hansborough wont get in early foul trouble right . Offsetting location , conference strength , seeding ...

Who wants it more ? This is the biggest determining factor , this we never really know until its too late .
I know Unc is my champion pick but a win by 10 or less may be just what the dr ordered .

2 high octane offenses , I should at least be right about the over , how could they f that up . 84 - 75

[EJLuv99]

Originally Posted by EJLuv99

The dogs that won friday that play sunday are WKy and SD that square off sun , Siena and Villanova that square off sunday . The only other dog to win su was Ark .
You would have to think alot to try and create a realistic picture in what this all means . As always applies to any brainstorm , it may mean nothing .

If I had to make it mean something I say there is a dog that will win 2 in a row as a dog on sunday . So that would have have to be either Siena , SD or Ark . That is something , I could keep storming but ...

All 3 dogs lost sunday , no dogs won being back to back dogs. Better brainstrom to share would have been teams that won as dogs friday to win as favs sunday (Vill and WKy) .
Carolina game being a blowout was over the top . I knew this Unc team was capable of putting 100 pts like this but am awed at the result . Everyone should consider taking Unc to win it all at tempting odds of +300 .

While it may still seem a complete tossup ? yes it is , but who else can pour it on like this ? Memphis , sure , but listen , CUSA is a joke and we have to consider that . No matter if we can throw everything out the window come big gametime or not . CUSA will bow to UNC if they match up . (imagine that , would be a great game of course but who would you take if you could bet Memp vs Unc RIGHT NOW ? )
Oooh yeah , potential matchup with Kan , potential matchup with Louisville or Tenn ? Yes , the +300 is justified no doubt but how can you not like Unc to bring it home ?
Tenn and Lville are both +1800 + , thats amazing people probably dont know that Lville could win it just as easily if they can get by Tenn and Unc .
Tenn = no shot . Ucla = no shot Kan = coughs Stan = confused Tex = no shot Davidson = surely you jest .

[EJLuv99]

5 pt T
+200 odds

Unc -3
Lville +2.5
Davidson +9.5
Memp even

[EJLuv99]

Originally Posted by EJLuv99

5 pt T
+200 odds

Unc -3
Lville +2.5
Davidson +9.5
Memp even

lock it up friday ! do your thing boy .

[winkyduck]

i have to ask - so i will

why tease all these games? if you are that unsure of the picks - don't play them. it's hard enough to win 1 game and now you have to win 4 to make money and so far the first 2 teases were not needed

i can understand teasing football games where you get 6 points and where less points are scored but i never understood why people tease basketball games where you get less points to tease and there are more points scored in a game

i have NEVER teased a basketball game and never will and since you love teasing games i have to ask................

WHY?

are you that unsure of yourself that you need to do this? if so - you need to look at other games

[EJLuv99]

[quote=EJLuv99;1133076]5 pt Teaser
+150 odds
Volunteers -0.5
Dav Wildcats +10.5
Cardinals -2
Try a new approach in writting the team name for luck . How could this not be good ! If it is no good I will be shocked .

5 pt teaser
+200 odds
Siena +10.5
Tex -2 happy either way
Butler +9.5
WKy

5 pt T
+350 odds
Tenn
Davidson +10.5
Louisville -2
Unc over 153 too ez
Mia +12

hate giving tourney pts up just like Ucla and Stan , screw jobs
quote
I dont just do teasers , was what I posted on here as a more sure thing than one might think . When you say they covered against the normal spread so I was foolish to tease them , you are reacting AFTER THE FACT . WE ARE ALL A GENIUS AFTER WE SEE THE FINAL SCORE .

Small sample size here . I made $1050.00 on the +350 parlay posted and I wont share what I made on the +150 odds tease .
I understand a win is a win , always , plus money is always better than going backwards which seems to be what the majority people do .
AFTER THE GAME IS OVER WE ALWAYS KNOW THE BEST STRATEGY and WAGERING METHODS .

If you see a tease from me I most likely have more combos and bet types than just what is posted . Probably goes for everyone , choosing to share is not to my benefit . I like trying to help people . Will I always make the right moves , of course not . Plus money is always better than going backwards , thats why you see people all over these forums erasing the spread and doing big ml favs on parlays . Nothing new , best to move ahead if possible than lose your ass being greedy (snowball effect can hit and you dont know what hit you) .
Remember that , not just you whoever you are , but anyone that may read this . For the record , I have dodged loses more times than I could ever track by not getting beat by spreads in tournament time . BIG PICTURE OF IT ALL ? Is a straight up 50/50 thing TEASING just like doing a single wager .
I try and be humble and not boast . Again with Ucla last night , guess it was smarter to give up the pts with the Bruins ?
This is a never ending debate , it all comes down to each game in question that you are wagering on . WE ALL HAVE HAD DIFFERENT EXPERIENCES RIGHT . I may not do a teaser for a month , it just depends .

If every game in the tournament was decided by a pt margin where the fav and dog where both good with the 5pt tease then what ?
Because you know what the final scores are thus far you form an opinion .
I do know what you mean though . I just think it is better for people not to suffer losses , so I posted a more sure way of cashing . Because you think and thought I would never hit the +350 odds teaser above you never considered it . +350 +150 , +200 is all good to me . Less stress for one thing , topic is endless . I respect your opinion though . thanks .

[EJLuv99]

Originally Posted by winkyduck

i have to ask - so i will

why tease all these games? if you are that unsure of the picks - don't play them. it's hard enough to win 1 game and now you have to win 4 to make money and so far the first 2 teases were not needed

i can understand teasing football games where you get 6 points and where less points are scored but i never understood why people tease basketball games where you get less points to tease and there are more points scored in a game

i have NEVER teased a basketball game and never will and since you love teasing games i have to ask................

WHY?

are you that unsure of yourself that you need to do this? if so - you need to look at other games

We can only live in the time and space that we occupy at this moment . If Memp or Davidson are $ tonight just because of the tease , then your question would answer itself . Like a self cleaning oven , automatic .
Not sure how that could be debated .
VERY PROABLE REALITY : MEMP COULD WIN A CLOSE GAME BY 4 PTS OR LESS .
DAVIDSON COULD VERY WELL LOSE TONIGHT BUT BY 9 PTS OR LESS .

Also , is a good hedge opp if you are conservative or if you are big money grip is even better . Reality ? you could get those right too . Sweep . I do this every day , is all I do , can be sick but I LOVE IT .

[EJLuv99]

Bad example . I teased the Pistons -21.5 last night down to -16.5 . Why ? Because I could see a screw job because everyone knows the spread from China to Las Vegas to the locker room . Seems alot of times a person gets a bad beat that truly knows what he is doing . A real handicapper would never give up 21.5 pts in an nba game right ? Maybe a good one teases it down to 16.5 and looks for the 17 - 20 pt win , normal result if on the up and up .

The spread does mean something , as much as we would like to think it doesn't , so if the game finshes right on the spread , or if the o/u finishes right on the total ? If you teased it you dont take a bad beat , you go forward , SWING .

You spoke of having confidence , not sure how a person can have TRUE confidence in tournament games with kids playing , or overpaid athletes in general . You never know when someone , or even the team as a whole
WILL SIMPLY NOT SHOW UP . Is just the truth no matter how cocky someone can talk or if they are right after a big game or not , you dont fucking know .

Officiating sets the tone no matter what I think I knew before the game started , always pretty much .

This is all true and the easiest way to prove it is to just look at how successful the books have been since their inception . Everyone is not stupid .... a person has to be many things to succeed .
You already knew that though . I would hope .
Result was Pistons by 16 , I still missed it but I liked it alot .

I agree if you do single wagers only that it is pretty simple and if you are on a cold streak you will only get hurt so bad , can be very easy to stay hot for awhile . I had a 20 something in a row streak back in 1999 or 2000 I think it was , money was really no thing then .
I actually go for it alot , def not by doing teasers .
I go 3 - 1 , 4 - 1 , and on up there on parlays all the time , is a joke really and the biggest way the books take peoples money .

You are right really , I dont execute like I could and should .
I am better at telling other people what to do than actually following through with it and doing it myself .

[EJLuv99]

Stan +3 -130 they stink but I need them to win tonight .
Davidson +5 this game should be a barnburner (fingers crossed )
Memp -4 -120 this game could be like Unc dominance . Memp has yet to cover in the tournament , look for it tonight !!!!!
Vill +13 -120 this game has scare for Big 12 written all over it but is nothing special thats for sure . Kan covered both games thus far , not tonight .

Tell Tale : obviousely if friday March 28th IS NOT a fav dominant night I am right on the money . If it is a good fav result these plays are no good .
probable result ats for friday is 2 - 2 . Hope to come out 3 - 1 at the worst .

Vill is the most iffy so if I go that way my picks would be the same except I take Kansas on a parlay to cover who knew Vill . Does Vill even belong here . super iffy .

total :
Davidson under 127 -120 gotta like it

Like the most : Memp -4.5 hope to book em Dano .

[EJLuv99]

5 pt Teaser keep it simple
+150 odds

Ucla -1
LVille +11
Kansas whatever it is

5 pt T
+150 odds
Xavier +11
LVille +11
Kansas they got something for em to make Dav look like a mid major

banking on a classic , competitive game for LVille here with these 2 plus odd advantage parlays .

[EJLuv99]

Originally Posted by EJLuv99

5 pt T
+200 odds

Unc -3
Lville +2.5
Davidson +9.5
Memp even

Have yet to dodge a bad beat with the teasers that were good on this thread .
The final scores showed there was no need for me to tease , does this mean anything in what will occur in the Elite 8 this weekend ? Of course not !

Maybe it happens this weekend , close games where all 8 teams are $ with the tease .

Straight wager
Memp - whatever

[EJLuv99]

Originally Posted by EJLuv99

Stan +3 -130 they stink but I need them to win tonight .
Davidson +5 this game should be a barnburner (fingers crossed )
Memp -4 -120 this game could be like Unc dominance . Memp has yet to cover in the tournament , look for it tonight !!!!!
Vill +13 -120 this game has scare for Big 12 written all over it but is nothing special thats for sure . Kan covered both games thus far , not tonight .

Tell Tale : obviousely if friday March 28th IS NOT a fav dominant night I am right on the money . If it is a good fav result these plays are no good .
probable result ats for friday is 2 - 2 . Hope to come out 3 - 1 at the worst .

Vill is the most iffy so if I go that way my picks would be the same except I take Kansas on a parlay to cover who knew Vill . Does Vill even belong here . super iffy .

total :
Davidson under 127 -120 gotta like it

Like the most : Memp -4.5 hope to book em Dano .

For the record :
Villanova was ONLY GOOD with the tease .

The under in the Davidson game WAS ONLY GOOD with the tease .

But why tease right . We only know after we see the final score .

Saving losses can be brillant , but if you did not need to tease and could have made 7 or 8 times more than you did by teasing it , there we have a never ending debate .
So , right now before the game comes on , how does anyone know if the tease will come into play in todays games ?
The