Hey Dirty and MO: top 25 getting killed again.

[BRyans]

Hi Cannon.
Just found Your System plays yesterday, and will be playing them for the rest of the Season. thank You.

[Cannon]

It has not had a horrible day yet. We will get a bad day every now and then. Don't anyone get hurt if he have a bad day. You will make money and have a nice bankroll by March Madness. I will watch and see how teams at home not in the system do when favored pick to -2 1/2 or -3. In years past they don't do very well.

[Twoniner]

Cannon, congrats on all the winners so far this year.
l've played the unranked favorites segment in the past, but not the others you have listed. In particular I am amazed out how well the simple unranked dogs segment seems to have been fairing. Do you by any chance have the numbers on their performance from last season? I'm sure they were pretty good since they seem to comprise the bulk of the units, even at the smaller units wagered per play.

One restriction I think could possibly help out even more is that of removing large (double digit most likely) home dogs. I have heard Alan Boston (very well respected college hoops bettor from the book "The Odds") and some other very sharp players talk about how double digit home dogs have pretty much been a money burner. I think they were talking about the last few seasons at a minimum, and the beginning of this one is when the conversation came up. Boston said it was costing him so much money that he had to come up with a logical explanation. He said that teams that are at a huge talent disadvantage will still get up for a home game against a top team and will have a lot of emotion on their side, which can keep them in the game at least for awhile. Often times get a small lead or hang very close for awhile. With such a large talent mismatch, as is the case when a team is laying 10+ on the road, the better team is usually going to wake up at some point and overcome the emotional charge of the home dog. When things start to go wrong and the home dog realizes they are overmatched it can very deflating and things can snowball letting the score get out of hand. The favorite then has to overcome a much smaller price than he would if he were at home. When our large dog is on the road (to the top 25 team for our use), he will of course be getting a better price, but also will not deal with the possible emotional roller coaster of the home dog role. In this spot, the home team expects to coast, and the visitor probably doesn't expect much either. We can probably get a generous amount of points and a less than 100% effort from the home team and maybe evena back door cover.

I haven't done the research on this subset, but these guys were talking very seriously about it, and I would be pretty surprised if the large home dogs were a decent winner over the period of time they were talking about. If someone has the numbers on large home dogs (double digit or maybe even 7+ or something to get a bigger subset) vs. top 25 teams that would be great. If not, I think we can keep an eye on it going forward and see if it wasn't a way to even better refine the system. If the unranked dogs are performing very well, it might be hard for this subset to be doing too poorly. But if that were to actually be the case, it could be a little boost to weed them out. Good luck.

[bajalife]

I like the angle




Keep your website out of your posts.... we will not allow you to tout your picks site here

[dirty]

Good Luck tonite guys

[Cannon]

Georgia tanking. The others going to have to keep us from losing tonight.

[Cannon]

Georgia wins and covers this is amazing.

[UofM2003]

Nice night so far, Cannon. Keep up the amazing work!

[BigIgg]

Great Job Cannon,
I appreciate your systems. I came back in the NFL a little with your system(only cause I started in week 15) and now I'm banking on this one.
I remember you saying you don't think you're sticking around this site next year, but will you be around to give us your insight on march madness?

[Cannon]

Yea I will stay till baskets are over. I am leaving because the tout Chuck Luck is on this site. Not a huge night but a winning night. I was a little worried so happy to win.

5 units
1-0

2 units
6-5

17 units and 10 units in losers plus the juice.

If you had waited and bet the closing line and not the overnight line like I did you would have been 6-4 with two ties and won the same 7 units.

[Cannon]

Thursday Plays

5 units
Washington-4 over #7 Oregon. Wow this must be a winner. I am going to bet this on the ML but they should be a winner anyway.

5 unit play but only betting it for 2 1/2 units

USC was #25 in the AP poll and #26 in the ESPN poll and Stanford is favored by 1 1/2 . Since USC was only ranked in 1 poll I am just betting Stanford on the ML for 2 1/2 units

2 1/2 unit plays
Clemson +7

2 unit plays
Loyola +3
California +6
Oregon St. +17
La Tech + 18 1/2

Anyone spot any stinkers in this group, please let us know.

[Twoniner]

Good day today Cannon. If you don't mind what was the NFL system for the 2nd half of the season?

[Trace Fields]

Cannon:

How did your NFL do last season from Week 8 onwards?

[Cannon]

Hey Trace all of these games were posted days sometimes 6 or 7 days before they were played not like Chuck Luck who posts he won after the game has been final for 2 hours. All games graded by the closing line at wagerline.

Weeks 9-17 of NFL regular season 44-21-1 ATS results as follows.

WEEK #9
6-4

Week #10
7-0

Week #11
4-2

Week #12
4-2-1

Week #13
5-4

Week #14
3-2

Week #15
5-3

Week #16
2-1

Week #17
8-3

44-21-1 ATS (I went 45-20-1 by the lines I bet)

9 winning weeks in a row in the NFL which is amazing.

The thing that really made some great money was all the dog moneyline winners it produced. Some like Detroit vs Dallas paid close to 7-1 at matchbook. I would have to go back and look but out of the 66 NFL plays about 55 must have been dogs and I think almost 50% won the game SU.

I have been betting this for about 10-12 years and Dirty on this site has seen it win for the last 5 years or so at the Eog and our old site. This system was told to me by some large layoff local books in Dallas that are friends years ago. It only does well the second half of the season. You could win the Hilton contest with this if you could pick enough winners the first half of the season. I have never lost money that I recall betting this.

This NCAA foots and basketball system involving betting games involving top 25 teams does nothing but make money year in and year out.

All you guys that try to cap games in my opinion is not the way to go. I get information from these large layoff books in sports that do well that I no longer post because they asked me not to. In years past Dirty can tell you that it is winning info.

My NFL systems had me a 11-5 in the playoffs but I changed one of the plays and posted a 10-6. Last week was ugly as I had both unders for an 0-2 and bet New Orleans when my layoff guys told me to bang the Bears hard. They did give me NE and told me to buy a point so instead of going 2-0 on sides I went 1-1.

For the Super Bowl they like Bears ML and + 7 1/2 and the under. They like a tease with Bears and under for amusement.

[nopac23]

Just joined the EOG. Been reading posts for a while and really like this system you have here Cannon. Gave it a try last night and think I'll be using it the rest of the year. GL to you.

As for the Washington game, Aaron Brooks (PG) is suspended for the game for elbowing a Washington player in last year's PAC-10 tourney. Live in PAC-10 country and knew about this going into the game. Was wondering how the linesmakers would treat this. He's been their best player all season and is kind of the glue to the team. It'll be interesting to see how the team handles this tough roadie without him.

[Twoniner]

I think Trace meant from last season, when favorites were unusually hot in the NFL.

[Hoganknows]

SEC 3-0 last night with the system...now 11-0 the last 11 plays

[sportsinvester]

I first, want to thank you for sharing this informantion. I would like to know is there any system that will work for the NBA. Thanks again.

[Sleeper]

Cannon, since I stumbled onto this thread I have not had a losing day with your college basketball plays and my way of betting, good job and keep up the good work. I am more selective with my plays but your system seems to be working well and so I will mix and match as I see it and hope you do keep on posting. You were not alone last night as you hinted you might be and I just wanted to let you know I am impressed with your way of grading and want you to know it, thanks.
Sleeper

[Cannon]

I have no NBA system that makes money. I used to bet against small home favorites -1 to -3 and won some but not sure how it has done the last two years.

[Cannon]

Year before last in the NFL it won money but not like this year. I have the plays somewhere I think but I will try to look for them.

[dirty]

Clemson easy winner.....Could have won outright

[Cannon]

Originally Posted by Cannon