Bamaguy's Preseason Predictions

[BamaGuy]

After 6 months of abscence it's great to be back at EOG for another football season! Last year was the first year that I ran my computer system on teams. I only used it for weeks 1-4 and the results were 70%, not bad. I didn't use it after then because I didn't formulate a way to update the system throughout the season based on performance. This year, I have added details and hopefully can run this all year and hit 60% or so on it, not counting my other bets. I hit 57% last year on over 400 games and made a good bit of units, but I definitely feel I can do better, and this will hopefully help!

These predictions are purely system based, they don't reflect any opinions on my part. It's based on how the teams should perform. As good as I think it can be, it cannot factor emotions, which we all know is a HUGE part of cfb.

Here are the major categories that go into the system for pre-season:
2008 record
returners
seniors
juniors
O-Line returners
D-Line returners
National all-americans
conference all-americans
returning center
returning qb
coaching tenure
coaching win %
ranking
conference
power ranking

There are also numerous minor categories that I wont list... here is the pre-season top 25 that it spit out...

25. Pitt
24. Utah
23. Michigan St
22. Vandy
21. Boise
20. LSU
19. Ga Tech
18. Notre Dame
17. Penn St
16. Ohio St
15. Iowa
14. Florida St
13. Georgia
12. Kansas
11. East Carolina
10. Alabama
9. North Carolina
8. Ole Miss
7. Va Tech
6. Okie St
5. Cal
4. USC
3. Oklahoma
2. Texas
1. Florida

This is purely based off combined ratings in the different categories, it doesn't factor the great teams that will be playing each other.

First off, Florida is heads above the rest, the system had them beating Tex by 12, OU by 15, and USC by 23!

An example of how this system is flawed is with Bama imo. They are 10th, I just can't see them losing to Va Tech or Ole Miss. Once again, doesnt factor emotion, how the team gel's together, or saint nick. Just for giggles, it had Va Tech winning by 2 and Ole miss by 1.

Major Surprise Teams:
East Carolina - Lookin pretty locked and loaded if they can keep consistentcy. Most polls have them hovering around 50!

Vandy - Sucks for them that they play in the SEC, will probably finish 7-5. But, they return every O-line and D-line from last year. Should be solid in the trenches.

Central Michigan - Always a fun team to watch, they just missed the top 25 at 26 and most pre season polls have them around 70! They retun a great QB in LeFevour, and 10 on defense, maybe 2009 version of ball st?

Kansas, Cal, and Okie St also seem to be running very high.

Biggest Dissapointment of a Major Team:
Ohio St - #16 isn't too solid for them.

Other Dissapointment:
Colorado and Virginia - Should be AWFUL this year compared with most pre-season rankings!

I'm not totally done with it and still have teams 70-120 to do, so maybe some more surprises in there. This is just what stuck out to me. Let me know what you guys think!

[The Noob]

Can't wait Bama!

[diogee]

Can't wait for some foots...thanks for sharing Bama.

[BigdaddyQH]

Nice write up. The only question I have is how a team that will suffer two losses in a conference that disappointed in their bowl games last year can be ranked at #6. (Okie State). Also, even though I am a USC alum and fan, I give the nod to Cal this year. USC just has too many people to replace. I know that people think they just reload, but the problem is that they are unproven, especialy on defense.

[junkman773]

Good Stuff good to see you back

[BamaGuy]

BigDaddy -I agree with you, this thing isn't perfect but it seems to work well. My answer would be that last years record, even with the losses and bowl game, is a very minor factor. They have ALOT of returning starters, lots of all americans, a returning center and qb and a decent amount coming back in the trenches. Based off of all of these, they should be #6. Now, the fact is that they will probably never finish this year with fewer than 2 or 3 losses and wont be ranked near that high. Even though they have alot of talent, and could dominate in some conferences, they are placed in the big 12, which is not easy with the Texas and OU of the world. Hope that answers a little.

Junk - Thanks man!

[BigdaddyQH]

Believe me,there is no such thing as a perfect system,and I will be the first to testify to that. One of the reasons I am not real high on Okie State is the complete lack of a defense. I think their bowl fiasco against Oregon last year told a lot. They do have a soft schedule, afer the Georgia game, but I do not think they get past either Texas or OU, and could be upset by Georgia.

[BamaGuy]

I totally agree my friend