Fantasy Baseball News 2007

[Hache Man]

Padre Possibilities

Offseason Lowdown turns its attention this week to the West Coast to check in on the Padres' winter happenings and 2007 outlook.

But certainly no mention of the Padres would be complete without a tip of the hat to Mr. Padre, Tony Gwynn, elected into the Hall of Fame this week. In a most deserving honor, the man who spent his entire 20-year career with San Diego (fittingly entering the Hall with another man who spent his entire career with one team – Cal Ripken, Jr.) was voted in by getting named on a whopping 97.6 percent of the ballots cast. Of course, high percentages are nothing new to Gwynn, winner of an NL record-tying eight batting titles and author of 3,141 career hits. The 15-time All-Star was enjoying the finest season of his career (.394) when labor issues ground the 1994 season to a halt, denying Gwynn the chance to become baseball's first .400 hitter since Ted Williams.

Skinny: The Padres have enjoyed back-to-back post-season appearances for the first time in team history, improving by six games last season. Now all they need to do is figure out how to get past the Cardinals.

Strengths: Pitching. The Padres held opponents to the lowest batting average (.249) in all of baseball last year while leading the majors in WHIP and finishing second in team ERA and tied for second in saves. A product of their pitching-friendly home, Petco Park? Yes, but not as much as you'd think. The club also enjoyed the second-best ERA on the road.

Weaknesses: Power. While the Padres' overall hitting is definitely made to look worse than it is because of Petco (.245 at home, .279 on the road; 315 runs at home, 426 on the road), there's no disguising that the club lacked power wherever it played in 2006. In fact, they managed just 86 long balls away from Petco and just 75 while playing there. When your top home run hitter is Adrian Gonzalez, you're in trouble (not to diminish the fine season Gonzalez enjoyed, but heading into 2006, he was hardly considered a power threat).

Key offseason acquisitions

Second baseman Marcus Giles signed as a free agent in order to finally fulfill his wish and play with his older brother. Thankfully, the Padres will not employ him at leadoff, a role in which he failed badly at last season while with the Braves.

Giles fills the hole that opened at second when Josh Barfield was dealt to Cleveland for Kevin Kouzmanoff, expected to battle with holdover Russell Branyan for the third base job. Reliever Andrew Brown also arrived from Cleveland in this deal and he could help the Padres this season.

Greg Maddux, added as a free agent for one season plus a 2008 option, joins with Jake Peavy and Chris Young to give the Padres' rotation a superb front three.

Jose Cruz Jr., signed to a one-year deal, will have a chance to compete with Terrmel Sledge in left field, but will likely be the club's fourth outfielder.

Heath Bell and Royce Ring, acquired in a trade with the Mets, will each help out in the Padres' pen.

Scott Strickland was signed as a free agent and could also provide some decent middle relief for the Padres.

Former Angels' pitching coach Bud Black has stepped in as manager to replace Bruce Bochy, inexplicably allowed to walk away from the team despite an impressive run of success in San Diego. Black has no previous managing experience, but has built a reputation as quite the pitching guru. Pitching isn't exactly the Padres' weak spot, however.

Key question: Who's the fifth starter? Right now the team has Mike Thompson penciled in, although equally unproven Tim Stauffer could also have a shot. However, GM Kevin Towers has said he'd prefer a veteran to man the slot. Could that mean David Wells, the free agent who finished the season with San Diego before supposedly retiring? The Padres are certainly talking to him with more urgency these days after missing out in the Randy Johnson sweepstakes. The fact that the Unit landed on a division rival only heightens that urgency for San Diego. Re-signing free agent Chan Ho Park is another option. Jeff Weaver is also still out there, and should begin to get more serious consideration now that most of the big names are off the market. He's probably going to want even more than Jeff Suppan got, which is too much, in other words. Tomo Ohka is also still available, but the Padres better move quick if they have interest in him because he reportedly has a few multi-year offers on the table already. The Padres have brought back Shawn Estes who made one start for them as the number five man last year before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Estes got a minor league deal, but won't be ready to contribute until the all-star break, if then.

Fantasy sleeper: Is Kouzmanoff the power hitter the Padres so desperately crave or just the next victim of Petco? He slugged .660 at Double-A and barely slowed down at Triple-A before the Indians called him up last year. If Kouzmanoff can't win the job, Branyan provided evidence last year that he isn't a total washout and his power could be prodigious. Otherwise, Branyan may see time in the outfield. With the Pads desperate for a power bat, each of these players should get long leashes.

Projected Lineup

LF Terrmel Sledge
2B Marcus Giles
RF Brian Giles
1B Adrian Gonzalez
CF Mike Cameron
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff/Russell Branyan
C Josh Bard
SS Khalil Greene

Rotation

Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Greg Maddux
Clay Hensley
Mike Thompson/Tim Stauffer

Bullpen

Trevor Hoffman, closer
Scott Linebrink
Cla Meredith

Key Bench: Branyan, Todd Walker, Cruz, Geoff Blum.

On the Horizon

Cedric Hunter, OF: The Padres' third rounder last season looks like one of the steals of the draft after tearing up the Rookie Arizona League and winding up hitting .364 combined over two levels. He's no Matt Bush, and that's a good thing.

Cesar Carrillo, RHP: The Padres' first rounder from 2005, Carrillo was the team's top pitching prospect at Double-A before moving up to Triple-A last year. Unfortunately, after just one Triple-A start he had to shut it down for the season because of a sore elbow. If the 22-year-old righty is healthy, he can help the big club this season.

[Hache Man]

Expert League Drafts
Christmas day is here and I've already taken part in two baseball drafts. Last Monday, Rotoworld held its mock draft for the upcoming baseball annual, and the very next day, I participated in the Krause Publication Experts League draft. Both were 12-team mixed league drafts using a 5x5 scoring system. Sadly, I had the ninth pick in the mock and 10th in the Krause, but I was due for some bad luck there. I had first pick in the Krause League two years ago and then the second pick when I won last season.

Here's a review of the two drafts and my rather similar looking teams. I'll focus a little more on the Krause League, since that's the one that's going to be played out.

Round 1
Rotoworld - Pick No. 9 - Chase Utley
Krause - Pick No. 10 - Vladimir Guerrero

The way I see it, there's a clear top eight, headed by Albert Pujols and Johan Santana. After that come Alex Rodriguez, Utley and Jose Reyes, though I'm not sure of the order yet. Next up are Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Howard. I was thrilled to get Utley ninth in the Rotoworld League. With Soriano gone to the outfield, there's a massive gap to the No. 2 second baseman, and even throwing out any positional adjustment, Utley stacks up well enough that he'd place sixth among outfielders in my rankings.

Obviously, I was less excited about the Guerrero pick. My top eight happened to be the first eight guys drafted. Carlos Beltran then went ninth, leaving me to choose between Vlad and Miguel Cabrera. As loaded as third base is, I went with the outfielder.

Round 2
Rotoworld - Pick No. 16 - Chris Carpenter
Krause - Pick No. 15 - Chris Carpenter

The top hitters left on my board were Bobby Abreu in the Rotoworld league and Mark Teixeira in Krause. I won the Krause League with pitching last year and was perfectly willing to try it again.

Round 3
Rotoworld - Pick No. 33 - Bobby Abreu
Krause - Pick No. 34 - Vernon Wells

I was stunned to find I had my pick of Abreu or Miguel Tejada in the Rotoworld League. The Krause draft, however, wasn't being so kind to me. Abreu, Tejada, Joe Mauer, Hanley Ramirez, Jason Bay, Michael Young were all drafted in the seven picks immediately preceding mine, and I was considering every one of them. In the end, I was happy just to get Wells, as I saw a substantial drop off to the next hitter (Justin Morneau).

Round 4
Rotoworld - Pick No. 40 - Jake Peavy
Krause - Pick No. 39 - Jake Peavy

In both cases, Santana and Carpenter were the only pitchers off the board. Getting my No. 3 starter at pick No. 39 seemed like an easy choice. None of my hitters had slipped.

Round 5
Rotoworld - Pick No. 57 - Adam Dunn
Krause - Pick No. 58 - Brandon Webb

Five more starting pitchers and two closers had gone in the Rotoworld League. I went best available hitter, knowing I'd take a closer on the way back around. In the Krause League, just three more starters had gone, and my No. 5 guy was still sitting out there. Dunn was again the top hitter on my board, but I thought Webb provided more value.

Round 6
Rotoworld - Pick No. 64 - Billy Wagner
Krause - Pick No. 63 - Billy Wagner

My No. 4 closer.

Round 7
Rotoworld - Pick No. 81 - Mike Piazza
Krause - Pick No. 82 - Adam Dunn

As a full-time DH and cleanup hitter in Oakland, Piazza is a better bet as a fantasy catcher than he has been in years. I have him ranked third behind Mauer and Victor Martinez.

Getting Dunn here in the Krause League was a nice surprise. I'm going to need the power after investing so much in pitching, and if things shape up as hoped, I can finish weak in one or two hitting categories and still contend.

Round 8
Rotoworld - Pick No. 88 - Julio Lugo
Krause - Pick No. 87 - Jeff Kent

I thought I had shortstop taken care of in both leagues here. I selected Dunn in the Krause League knowing both teams drafting in between my picks already had shortstops. It turned out I got a nasty surprise when Felipe Lopez was picked anyway. He was the only one of my top 10 shortstops still on the board, and I wasn't ready to draft Edgar Renteria. Instead, I picked Kent, my No. 4 second baseman.

Round 9
Rotoworld - Pick No. 105 - Brad Lidge
Krause - Pick No. 106 - Brad Lidge

A good time to grab that second closer. I have Lidge ranked as the No. 8 reliever.

Round 10
Rotoworld - Pick No. 112 - Jason Schmidt
Krause - Pick No. 111 - Rocco Baldelli

I was set to take Alex Rios in the Rotoworld draft, but he went the pick before mine, causing me to choose my No. 11 starter instead. In the Krause League, I thought I was going to be able to select from between Rios and Baldelli, but Rios went at No. 108. I was leaning toward Baldelli anyway. I have Rios slightly higher now, but he stands to lose more if traded.

Round 11
Rotoworld - Pick No. 129 - Hank Blalock
Krause - Pick No. 130 - Jeff Francoeur

I currently have Rios 18th, Baldelli 20th and Francoeur 21st among outfielders. Francoeur isn't going to help in steals, but since the complete lack of walks gives him more chances for homers and RBI, I'm pretty high on him as a fantasy outfielder.

Round 12
Rotoworld - Pick No. 136 - Lyle Overbay
Krause - Pick No. 135 - Ivan Rodriguez

Overbay wasn't the top player on my board, but I still didn't have a first baseman and every other option remaining ranked far lower.

In a two-catcher league, Rodriguez looked like a solid pick here. I can't get excited about him, but he'll hit in a pretty good spot in a pretty good lineup.

Round 13
Rotoworld - Pick No. 153 - Bronson Arroyo
Krause - Pick No. 154 - Hank Blalock

I've drafted Blalock in a lot of leagues over the years, but I really thought that would change this time around. Guess not. In shallow mixed leagues like this, there's just so much depth at third base right now that I don't think it makes much sense to pick one in the first 10 rounds. It turned out that I made a mistake picking him in the 11th round in the Rotoworld League. Blalock's stunning lack of progress frustrates me to no end, but he's still just 26 and he's in a great situation in Texas. If he returns to 2003-04 form, he's a big-time bargain here.

Round 14
Rotoworld - Pick No. 160 - Octavio Dotel
Krause - Pick No. 159 - Rich Harden

I had a choice between Harden and Curt Schilling in the Krause League. Harden graded out higher in my preliminary projections, but I'm probably going to knock him down a bit. Still, it's hard to win experts leagues without taking some chances. I'm gambling on upside here.

Round 15
Rotoworld - Pick No. 177 - Jose Contreras
Krause - Pick No. 178 - Lyle Overbay

Following Dunn and Blalock, Overbay becomes the third player I was able to get two or three rounds later in the Krause League. Having the Rotoworld draft a day earlier is paying off now, though I'm still not as happy with the Krause draft as I was with the previous one.

Round 16
Rotoworld - Pick No. 184 - Eric Chavez
Krause - Pick No. 183 - Freddy Sanchez

I had third base taken care of, but Chavez was clearly the top player left on my board. In fact, I have him projected to finish with slightly better numbers than the first baseman I drafted four rounds earlier.

Sanchez fills my hole at shortstop in the Krause League. There won't be many homers or steals there, but he can maintain a .300 average and he should do fairly well in runs and RBI as the Pirates' No. 3 hitter.

Round 17
Rotoworld - Pick No. 201 - Aubrey Huff
Krause - Pick No. 202 - Octavio Dotel

Huff becomes third baseman No. 3. I don't know who he'll end up signing with, but he looked like a better option to plug into my outfield than any of the alternatives available.

Picking Dotel here gives me the same three closers on both teams. I considered Jose Valverde and Mike Gonzalez instead, but there's been talk about the D'Backs acquiring Akinori Otsuka and Gonzalez could be a setup man if traded.

Round 18
Rotoworld - Pick No. 208 - Brian Giles
Krause - Pick No. 207 - Chris Duffy

I was also strongly considering going Duffy in the Rotoworld League, but he was picked at No. 205. I'm not especially high on Duffy, but there are few better bets for early-season steals. Time will tell whether he'll get on base often enough to hold on to his starting job. I don't think he's going to be a long-term regular.

Round 19
Rotoworld - Pick No. 225 - Edwin Encarnacion
Krause - Pick No. 226 - Jose Contreras

I'm a big Encarnacion fan. Not only can he hit 25 homers, but he might also steal 10-12 bases. He fills the DH spot in the Rotoworld League.

Four rounds later for Contreras in the Krause League. I currently have him 31st among SPs.

Round 20
Rotoworld - Pick No. 232 - Jason Kendall
Krause - Pick No. 231 - Gerald Laird

I also had Kendall to choose from in the Krause League. He's my No. 13 catcher, followed by Laird at No. 14. In this case, Laird's power seemed to be a better fit.

One note: up until this point, I had drafted the Rotoworld League as if we were playing it out. However, since there were five common members between the two drafts, I decided I was going to save a couple of my favorite end-game picks for Tuesday. Encarnacion was one guy I was planning on saving, though I ended up drafting him anyway. Another was Chris Burke, who I would have taken in this spot in the Rotoworld League. It turned out that he was chosen at the beginning of Round 19 in the Krause League.

Round 21
Rotoworld - Pick No. 249 - Orlando Hudson
Krause - Pick No. 250 - Edwin Encarnacion

Hudson looks like a pretty good alternative to Burke, especially if he bats second regularly.

Encarnacion becomes the 10th common player between the two teams and the sixth that I picked up at least two rounds later in the Krause League. There's no better draft strategy advice that I can offer than to recommend that people do practice drafts. It's not hard to find people online willing to take part in mock drafts. The better idea you have of where players are going to go, the better your drafts are going to look.

Round 22
Rotoworld - Pick No. 256 - Ted Lilly
Krause - Pick No. 255 - Chuck James

In the Krause League last year, I got six of my top 29 pitchers: Pedro Martinez, Harden, Schilling, Webb, Contreras and Erik Bedard. This time, I settled for six of my top 40. I'd probably drop James immediately if the Braves traded him, but I don't think that will happen.

Round 23
Rotoworld - Pick No. 273 - Chris Young (OF)
Krause - Pick No. 274 - Jose Vidro

Young was actually the No. 122 pick in the Krause League. I think that's high, but I like him a lot as a late-round pick in mixed leagues.

As a full-time DH, Vidro could be a pretty nice MI. Jhonny Peralta is one guy I would have taken over him, but he went at No. 252.

Krause League Team
C - Ivan Rodriguez (12)
C - Gerald Laird (20)
1B - Lyle Overbay (15)
3B - Hank Blalock (13)
CI - Edwin Encarnacion (21)
2B - Jeff Kent (8)
SS - Freddy Sanchez (16)
MI - Jose Vidro (23)
OF - Vladimir Guerrero (1)
OF - Vernon Wells (3)
OF - Adam Dunn (7)
OF - Rocco Baldelli (10)
OF - Jeff Francoeur (11)
DH - Chris Duffy (18)

P - Chris Carpenter (2)
P - Jake Peavy (4)
P - Brandon Webb (5)
P - Rich Harden (14)
P - Jose Contreras (19)
P - Chuck James (22)

P - Billy Wagner (6)
P - Brad Lidge (9)
P - Octavio Dotel (17)

I wasn't all that pleased with this draft at first. I had to settle for lesser hitters than I would have liked early on, and I know I don't have quite as much talent as I did last year. Still, I'm warming up to it, mainly because I know I couldn't have done any better. It's obvious the competition was better prepared than it was a year ago. I took value when it was there and I didn't reach to fill any needs, specifically those at shortstop and first base. There's not one instance where I can say "I never would have chosen player A there had I known player B was still going to be available five rounds later."

And as for going pitching heavy again, I really didn't think I was left with a whole lot of choice. Maybe I would have been better off with Teixeira in round two and Schilling instead of Overbay in round 15, but if Carpenter can throw 200-220 innings again, I think my pair has the edge. I used to preach offense, offense, offense, just like most experts, but I think it's gone too far. When I play in mixed leagues with friends, I still tend to end up with one starting pitcher in the first 10 rounds, mostly because they go faster, leaving more value in offense. In the experts leagues, everyone is so offense heavy that the value is with the pitching. It'll probably swing back the other way eventually. Until then, I suppose I'll keep trying my luck with the aces.

[Hache Man]

Top 10 Prospects - AL East
This is the first of six columns looking at each club's top 10 prospects. The AL East is covered below and will be followed by the NL East next week. Once all of the divisions have been featured, I'll turn the lists below into an overall top 150.

Players with at least 50 innings pitched, 130 at-bats or 45 non-September days on an active roster are excluded from the lists below. I also don't include anyone with significant experience in Japan.

Baltimore Orioles

1. Brandon Erbe - RHP - DOB: 12/25/87 - ETA: 2009
5-9, 3.22 ERA, 88 H, 133/47 K/BB in 114 2/3 IP for low Single-A Delmarva

It's hard to see how Erbe lasted to the third round of the 2005 draft. He possesses impresses command for such a hard-throwing youngster, and it wasn't a height thing, as he stands 6-foot-4. He's touched 98 mph on the gun and throws regularly in the mid-90s. Erbe's secondary pitches need work, but his slider should rate as a plus offering in time and the Orioles will insist that he use his changeup more. He could end 2007 in Double-A and reach the majors by Sept. 2008.

2. Billy Rowell - 3B - DOB: 09/10/88 - ETA: 2010
.329/.422/.507, 2 HR, 26 RBI, 47/25 K/BB, 3 SB in 152 AB for Rookie Bluefield
.326/.388/.488, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 12/4 K/BB, 0 SB in 43 AB for SS Single-A Aberdeen

The early results say the Orioles did very well with the ninth selection in the 2006 draft. Rowell, a shortstop in high school, was moved to third base right away after signing and then hit .328/.415/.503 at two stops. His left-handed swing promises 30-homer power, and he's already making ample contact, against righties anyway. He hit 110 points lower in his 67 at-bats against lefties. Whether he'll be able to stay at third is the biggest question Rowell faces as he climbs the ladder. His chances of becoming an All-Star will be much improved if he can avoid a move to first base or an outfield corner. Since he'll probably end up at first base, he ranks behind Erbe here.

3. Nolan Reimold - OF - DOB: 10/12/83 - ETA: July 2008
.255/.379/.455, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 107/76 K/BB, 14 SB in 415 AB for Single-A Frederick
.284/.406/.398, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 20/16 K/BB, 1 SB in 88 AB for Grand Canyon (AFL)

Reimold turned in a terrific pro debut in 2005 after being drafted in the second round out of Bowling Green, but his 2006 was tough to get a read on. He hit .304/.435/.538 over the first two months before suffering a foot injury on June 4. He missed 10 days and fell into quite a slump afterwards, going 4-for-39 over the rest of the month and improving only to .227 in July. He did bounce back to hit six homers in August, but his power evaporated in the AFL. Reimold should be on his way to becoming a 25-homer guy, and he's a fine defender in right field, though not so good that he figures to unseat Nick Markakis. I still like his chances of becoming a solid everyday player, but he might not be ready for the start of 2008 as previously hoped.

4. Garrett Olson - LHP - DOB: 10/18/83 - ETA: Sept. 2007
4-4, 2.77 ERA, 81 H, 77/19 K/BB in 81 1/3 IP for Single-A Frederick
6-5, 3.42 ERA, 78 H, 85/31 K/BB in 84 1/3 IP for Double-A Bowie

It was another black mark for the franchise when Baltimore couldn't sign Wade Townsend after drafting him eighth overall in 2004, but it's worked out just fine. The Orioles picked Olson with the supplemental first-round selection they were awarded in 2005 and got themselves a pitcher far more likely to have a career. Olson throws 89-90 mph and has a curve that's been one of the top strikeout breaking balls in the minors over the last year and a half. Because the curve is his only above average pitch and his changeup remains a work in progress, there's some thought Olson may be limited to relief work in the majors. However, as long as he can hit the corners with his fastball, he'll probably make it as a third or fourth starter.

5. Pedro Beato - RHP - DOB: 10/27/86 - ETA: 2010
3-2, 3.63 ERA, 47 H, 52/23 K/BB in 57 IP for SS Single-A Aberdeen

The Mets were expected to sign Beato as a draft-and-follow after picking him in the 17th round in 2005, but MLB stepped in and prevented them from meeting his asking price. The Orioles then drafted the Tommy John survivor with the 32nd overall selection last year and quickly signed him. Beato typically works in the low-90s with movement, and his curveball is on its way to becoming an above average second offering. If his changeup catches up with his first two pitches, he could be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. He's due to open 2007 at low-A Delmarva.

6. Radhames Liz - RHP - DOB: 10/06/83 - ETA: Aug. 2008
6-5, 2.82 ERA, 57 H, 95/44 K/BB in 83 IP for Single-A Frederick
3-1, 5.36 ERA, 55 H, 54/31 K/BB in 50 1/3 IP for Double-A Bowie

Especially considering that he continued to strike out more than a batter an inning, Liz's struggles at Bowie weren't especially discouraging. He opened 2006 in the Carolina League even though he had pitched just 38 1/3 innings at Delmarva in 2005. Double-A became the fourth level he pitched at in barely a year. Liz remains something of a raw talent. He works in the mid-90 and his curveball shows a lot of potential. On the other hand, his changeup offers little in the way of deception and he needs to do a much better job of throwing strikes. There's a good chance he'll end up as a reliever, though he could be a very good one. He has closer-type upside.

7. Jim Hoey - RHP - DOB: 12/30/82 - ERA: July 2007
2-1, 18 Sv, 2.54 ERA, 17 H, 46/10 K/BB in 28 1/3 IP for low Single-A Delmarva
0-0, 11 Sv, 0.64 ERA, 13 H, 16/5 K/BB in 14 IP for Single-A Frederick
0-0, 4 Sv, 4.00 ERA, 9 H, 11/3 K/BB in 9 IP for Double-A Bowie
0-1, 0 Sv, 10.24 ERA, 14 H, 6/5 K/BB in 9 2/3 IP for Baltimore

Back from Tommy John surgery, Hoey was one of the Orioles' most pleasant surprises last season, striking out 73 while giving up just 39 hits in 51 1/3 innings at three levels in the minors. Rushing him to the majors in late August was an obvious mistake, and the Orioles will have to hope that the shoulder "weakness" that sidelined him in late September was completely taken care of with an offseason of rest. If he's 100 percent, he should be ready to contribute by the second half of the season. Hoey throws in the mid-90s and has a quality slider. He'll likely settle in as a setup man.

8. Brandon Snyder - C - DOB: 11/23/86 - ETA: 2011
.234/.267/.339, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 43/5 K/BB, 2 SB in 124 AB for SS Single-A Aberdeen
.194/.237/.340, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 55/9 K/BB, 0 SB in 144 AB for low Single-A Delmarva

Snyder also played shortstop before being drafted, but if he stays on this path, it's only a matter of time before he gets lumped in with all of the other high school catchers turned first-round busts. Snyder, the 13th overall pick in the 2005 draft, was troubled last season by a torn left (non-throwing) rotator cuff he had operated on during August. He'll probably begin flashing some offensive potential this season, but he has a lot of work ahead of him if he's going to make it as a catcher. A switch to third base is a possibility down the line.

9. Jeff Fiorentino - OF - DOB: 04/14/83 - ETA: April 2008
.275/.365/.413, 13 HR, 62 RBI, 58/53 K/BB, 9 SB in 385 AB for Double-A Bowie
.256/.375/.308, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 3/7 K/BB, 1 SB in 39 AB for Baltimore
.263/.364/.442, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 16/15 K/BB, 1 SB in 95 AB for Grand Canyon (AFL)

Fiorentino saw time in the majors for a second straight season last year, but he's still a year away from being ready to fulfill his destiny as a fourth outfielder. His minor league numbers to date have been dragged down by a full complement of at-bats against left-handed pitchers. He hit .294/.391/.450 against righties in Double-A last season, and that's about all he's going to see once he's in the majors for good. Since he has the range to handle center, he should have a long career as a bench guy.

10. Keiron Pope - OF - DOB: 10/03/86 - ETA: 2011
.341/.411/.585, 5 HR, 29 RBI, 36/10 K/BB, 4 SB in 135 AB for Rookie Bluefield
.107/.160/.107, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 33/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 75 AB for SS Single-A Aberdeen

Pope's horrendous showing after moving up to the New York-Penn League at the end of the season was a disappointment, but there was a reason the Orioles were going slowly with the toolsy 2005 fourth-round pick. Pope has more speed than his meager stolen-base total suggests, and he's likely to develop 20-25 homer power. Time will tell whether he'll possess the on-base skills to make it as a corner outfielder in the majors, but he has a high ceiling.

Next five: 2B Ryan Adams, SS Pedro Florimon, RHP Bob McCrory, OF Val Majewski, RHP Jim Johnson

2006 top 15: Nick Markakis, Hayden Penn, Adam Loewen, Nolan Reimold, Garrett Olson, Val Majewski, Brandon Snyder, Jim Johnson, Brandon Erbe, Jeff Fiorentino, Radhames Liz, Sendy Rleal, Aaron Rakers, Chris Britton, David Haehnel

2005 top 10: Nick Markakis, Adam Loewen, Hayden Penn, John Maine, Val Majewski, Jeff Fiorentino, Chris Ray, Mike Fontenot, Jacobo Sequea, Walter Young

2004 top 10: Denny Bautista, Erik Bedard, Adam Loewen, Matt Riley, John Maine, Nick Markakis, Don Levinski, Val Majewski, Daniel Cabrera, Mike Fontenot

2003 top 10: Erik Bedard, Luis Jimenez, Rich Stahl, Matt Riley, Darnell McDonald, Daniel Cabrera, Dustin Yount, Steve Bechler, Rommie Lewis, Tripper Johnson


Boston Red Sox

1. Dustin Pedroia - 2B/SS - DOB: 08/17/83 - ETA: Now
.305/.384/.426, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 27/48 K/BB, 1 SB in 423 AB for Triple-A Pawtucket
.191/.258/.303, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 7/7 K/BB, 0 SB in 89 AB for Boston

The general view seems to be that Pedroia's stock has fallen over the last year, but after a slow start brought on by a shoulder injury suffered in spring training, he was productive as a 22-year-old in Triple-A, batting .330 and slugging .461 in 282 at-bats. Also, he showed terrific range at second base, the position that figures to be his long-term home. More than anything else, it was his arm that got him taken off shortstop. He did make the mistake of swinging for the fences too often after reaching the majors, but that's something time can take care of. The Arizona State product will be decent this year, and he should settle in as an above average regular beginning in 2008.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury - OF - DOB: 09/11/83 - ETA: April 2008
.299/.379/.418, 4 HR, 32 RBI, 28/25 K/BB, 25 SB in 244 AB for Single-A Wilmington
.308/.387/.434, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 25/24 K/BB, 16 SB in 198 AB for Double-A Portland
.276/.342/.371, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 16/8 K/BB, 7 SB in 105 AB for Peoria (AFL)

What Ellsbury lacks in offensive upside, he makes up for with potential Gold Glove defense in center field. The 2005 first-round pick out of Oregon State was one of the premier defenders in the minors last season, and he could offer just enough with the bat to be a leadoff man in the majors. The left-handed hitter shows gap power and the ability to hit for average. A few more walks would be nice, but at least he doesn't strike out very often. He'd probably be able to hold his own in the majors this year if Coco Crisp gets hurt again. A strong season split between Double- and Triple-A would make Crisp expendable next winter.

3. Clay Buchholz - RHP - DOB: 08/14/84 - ETA: Aug. 2008
9-4, 2.62 ERA, 78 H, 117/29 K/BB in 103 IP for low Single-A Greenville
2-0, 1.13 ERA, 10 H, 23/4 K/BB in 16 IP for Single-A Wilmington

Buchholz was supposed to something of a raw product after getting drafted 41st overall out of a Texas junior college in 2005, but he's opened his pro career with a 2.47 ERA and a 185/42 K/BB ratio in 160 1/3 innings. Now it looks like the Red Sox could have him start this year at Double-A, though that's in large part because they don't want him to have to deal with the harsh environment at Lancaster in the California League. Buchholz works comfortably in the low-90s and has four pitches, though his curve lags behind his slider and change. As impressive as his command is, he would seem to have No. 2-starter potential. His presence gives Boston three top-50 prospects.

4. George Kottaras - C - DOB: 05/16/83: ETA: April 2008
.276/.394/.451, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 68/50 K/BB, 0 SB in 257 AB for Double-A Mobile
.210/.286/.361, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 30/12 K/BB, 0 SB in 119 AB for Triple-A Portland

Kottaras, who was picked up from the Padres for David Wells at the end of August, possesses rare on-base ability for a catcher and appears likely to develop 15- homer power. His status as a prospect, though, hinges on his ability to stay behind the plate. He's not fast enough to become an option at another key position, so if he has to move, he'd be a first baseman or a corner outfielder. Kottaras has enough of an arm to be an adequate catcher if he can make enough progress on the other parts of his game. The Red Sox have no intention of having him change positions anytime soon. Ideally, he'd make enough progress defensively this year that he could begin splitting time with the aging Jason Varitek in 2008.

5. Michael Bowden - RHP - DOB: 09/09/86 - ETA: 2009
9-6, 3.51 ERA, 91 H, 118/31 K/BB in 107 2/3 IP for low Single-A Greenville
0-0, 9.00 ERA, 9 H, 3/1 K/BB in 5 IP for Single-A Wilmington

Bowden was taken six spots after Buchholz in the 2005 draft and the two are often compared to one another. Bowden has the advantage of youth and his curveball is probably a better weapon than any of Buchholz's offspeed pitches. Still, he gets dropped a bit here because of a delivery that could lead to arm problems down the line. Also, his changeup doesn't quite measure up. He has plenty of potential if his elbow and shoulder hold up. Still, it'd be no surprise if physical problems get him sent to the bullpen someday.

6. Daniel Bard - RHP - DOB: 06/25/85 - ETA: 2009

Bard could have gone 15 or 20 spots higher in the 2006 draft if not for his bonus demands. The Red Sox took him 28th overall and then signed him in September. Bard went 8-3 with a 3.47 ERA, 71 H and 90/33 K/BB in 85 2/3 IP in his final year at the University of North Carolina, where he was a teammate of Andrew Miller's. His fastball has hit 101 mph on the gun and he often works in the 95-98 mph range. Unfortunately, he lacks any plus secondary pitches right now. Both his slider and changeup have some potential, but he clearly has some work to do. A switch to the pen could be a possibility if he struggles to come up with three quality pitches.

7. Jason Place - OF - DOB: 05/08/88 - ETA: 2011
.292/.386/.442, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 35/17 K/BB, 3 SB in 113 AB for Rookie GCL Red Sox

Place wasn't a typical early Red Sox pick, but the team decided to overlook his swing-at-everything mentality and use the 27th overall pick on him in last year's draft. Place draws comparisons to Jeff Francoeur. He's likely to develop 30-homer power and should be a quality defender in right field. Still, it seems doubtful that he'll turn into a major leaguer with his current swing. At least he did show a decent walk rate in his introduction to the pros. Place is likely to experience some growing pains this year. There is star potential here, but he's not going to move quickly.

8. Bryce Cox - RHP - DOB: 08/10/84 - ETA: May 2008
0-1, 1.59 ERA, 6 H, 3/2 K/BB in 5 2/3 IP for SS Single-A Lowell
2-0, 0.74 ERA, 14 H, 25/9 K/BB in 24 1/3 IP for Single-A Wilmington

The Red Sox viewed Cox as a potential steal after getting him in the third round out of Rice University last season. The reliever has had major command difficulties at time in his career, but he was throwing very well at the end of the college season and he kept it going in the minors. Cox gets sinking movement on his mid-90s fastball and has a top-notch high-80s slider. With his ability get plenty of groundouts as well as strikeouts, he has closer potential. Still, his control might prevent him from contributing this year.

9. Kris Johnson - LHP - DOB: 10/14/84 - ETA: 2009
0-2, 0.88 ERA, 25 H, 27/7 K/BB in 30 2/3 IP for SS Single-A Lowell

Johnson missed 2005 due to Tommy John surgery and had a bit of an up-and-down 2006 at Wichita State last year, finishing 6-2 with a 4.86 ERA, 57 H and 45/21 K/BB in 53 2/3 IP. However, his plus stuff for a left-hander guaranteed he wouldn't slip far in last year's draft. The Red Sox got him 40th overall. Johnson throws in the low-90s and shows a changeup and a curve. He could develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

10. Brandon Moss - OF - DOB: 09/16/83 - ETA: April 2008
.285/.357/.439, 12 HR, 83 RBI, 108/56 K/BB, 8 SB in 508 AB for Double-A Portland

Moss didn't take as much of a step forward as hoped after hitting .268/.337/.441 in his first year in Double-A in 2005, but it was an early slump that really weighed his numbers down. He hit .178 in April and then .260 in May. After that, he batted .326 with a 67/46 K/BB ratio in 319 at-bats. Moss makes a lot of contact and seems likely to turn into a 20-homer guy. He doesn't project as an above average regular, but there's enough to like about him that he figures to get at least a couple of chances to prove himself. Since the Red Sox should always be able to do better, he's a candidate to be included in a trade.

Next five: 1B Lars Anderson, OF David Murphy, LHP Felix Doubront, RHP Edgar Martinez, RHP Justin Masterson

Ineligible because of service time: Craig Hansen

2006 top 15: Andy Marte, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, Craig Hansen, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kelly Shoppach, Jed Lowrie, Manny Delcarmen, Brandon Moss, Luis Soto, Clay Buchholz, Edgar Martinez, David Murphy, Abe Alvarez

2005 top 10: Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Kelly Shoppach, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester, Anibal Sanchez, Abe Alvarez, Luis Soto, Brandon Moss, David Murphy

2004 top 10: Kevin Youkilis, Hanley Ramirez, Kelly Shoppach, Charlie Zink, David Murphy, Jon Lester, Chad Spann, Juan Cedeno, Matt Murton, Abe Alvarez

2003 top 10: Hanley Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Freddy Sanchez, Phil Dumatrait, Kelly Shoppach, Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Tony Blanco, Josh Hancock, Jerome Gamble


New York Yankees

1. Philip Hughes - RHP - DOB: 06/24/86 - ETA: June 2007
2-3, 1.80 ERA, 19 H, 30/2 K/BB in 30 IP for Single-A Tampa
10-3, 2.25 ERA, 73 H, 138/32 K/BB in 116 IP for Double-A Trenton

Hughes, a 2004 first-round pick, emerged as the game's top pitching prospect in a 2006 in which he limited hitters to a .179 average and struck out nearly five batters for every one he walked. With plenty of movement on his 91-94 mph fastball and a curveball that's become a dominant second pitch, he has ace upside. His third pitch is a changeup that's a little above average. Since he doesn't have far to go when it comes to command, he'd likely have success in a major league rotation right now. The Yankees, though, would prefer to not have to turn to him right away. Barring injury, he should be up for good by midseason.

2. Jose Tabata - OF - DOB: 08/12/88 - ETA: 2010
.298/.377/.420, 5 HR, 51 RBI, 66/30 K/BB, 15 SB in 319 AB for low Single-A Charleston

Tabata more than held his own as a 17-year-old in full-season ball, though he did decline rather than improve as the year went on. Part of the problem was a hand injury suffered in July. He later aggravated the injury in Venezuela, where he hit .275/.392/.422 in 51 at-bats. A center fielder initially as a pro, Tabata made the move to right last year and should stay there. He has a great idea of what he should be doing at the plate for someone so young, and he's likely to develop 30-35 homer power. While he's not going to reach the majors anytime soon, he looks like a potential star.

3. Humberto Sanchez - RHP - DOB: 05/28/83 - ETA: Aug. 2007
5-3, 1.76 ERA, 47 H, 86/27 K/BB in 71 2/3 IP for Double-A Erie
5-3, 3.86 ERA, 50 H, 43/20 K/BB in 51 1/3 IP for Triple-A Toledo

After posting a 5.21 ERA at Single-A Lakeland in 2004 and a 5.56 ERA at Double-A Erie in 2005, Sanchez finally began to fulfill his potential last season, at least until he hurt his elbow in July. He made just one start over the final six weeks of the season. Sanchez has always had big-time stuff, but inconsistency, along with questions about his arm, has led many to believe his future may lie in the pen. It's more likely that he'll end up there now that he's a Yankee, the result of the Gary Sheffield trade. Sanchez can throw in the mid-90s and his hard curveball is quite a strikeout pitch. He'll probably reach the Bronx as a middle reliever before the end of the year.

4. Tyler Clippard - RHP - DOB: 02/14/85 - ETA: May 2008
12-10, 3.35 ERA, 118 H, 175/55 K/BB in 166 1/3 IP for Double-A Trenton

Clippard has yet to stumble since the Yankees made him a ninth-round pick in the 2003 draft and the numbers, especially his strikeout rate, say that he's a top prospect. Still, skepticism will remain until Clippard gets it done in the majors. Even though he's filled out some, he only occasionally gets his fastball above 90 mph. His changeup is a truly impressive second pitch and his curveball has come along nicely, but as a modest flyball pitcher with below average velocity, he's going to have his share of problems against the stacked lineups of the AL. I still like him as a No. 4, maybe a No. 3. A trade would make him a better candidate to spend the final third of the season in the majors.

5. Joba Chamberlain - RHP - DOB: 09/23/85 - ETA: 2009

Chamberlain's history of weight troubles and the triceps strain that sidelined him for a time in his final season at Nebraska lowered his stock on draft day, allowing the Yankees to select him 41st overall. Because of his upside, the Bombers didn't hesitate to take the chance. After signing late, he pitched in the Hawaiian Winter League, going 2-2 with a 2.63 ERA, 28 H and 46/3 K/BB in 37 2/3 IP in a pitching-dominated league. Chamberlain can throw in the high-90s and has impressive command. He lacks an outstanding second pitch, but both his slider and changeup have potential. If everything breaks right, the possibility is there that he'll develop into one of the American League's better pitchers. Still, he is riskier than most college picks. The 6-foot-3 right-hander has pushed 300 pounds at times, and a $1.1 million signing bonus buys a lot of Doritos.

6. Eric Duncan - 1B - DOB: 12/07/84 - ETA: Aug. 2008
.248/.355/.485, 10 HR, 29 RBI, 38/32 K/BB, 0 SB in 206 AB for Double-A Trenton
.209/.279/.255, 0 HR, 6 RBI, 24/9 K/BB, 0 SB in 110 AB for Triple-A Columbus
.257/.310/.354, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 16/9 K/BB, 0 SB in 113 AB for Peoria (AFL)

Expectations have simply been too high. Duncan was awful after opening last season in Triple-A, but he never should have been there in the first place. Once demoted, he managed an 840 OPS as a 21-year-old in Double-A. That he was able to cut back on the strikeouts while maintaining his power was pretty encouraging and suggests an improved average is likely to come soon. Duncan did spend a little time at third base last year, but he's set to become a full-time first baseman, something that seemed likely from the moment the Yankees made him a first-round pick in 2003. The back troubles he's experienced qualify as more of a concern than anything about his performance to date. He's on his way to developing into a 30-homer guy. The on-base skills probably won't be there to make him a great player, but it's far too early to regard him as a failure.

7. Dellin Betances - RHP - DOB: 03/23/88 - ETA: 2010
0-1, 1.16 ERA, 14 H, 27/7 K/BB in 23 1/3 IP for Rookie GCL Yankees

Thought to be going to college, Betances fell to the eighth round of the 2006 draft, where he was snared by the Yankees. They were probably the only team that would have kept him out of school. Betances stands 6-foot-8 and generates plenty of velocity, usually working in the mid-90s. He has a long way to go before he masters his curveball and changeup, but his gains have already come more quickly than anyone would have expected. He's probably not going to be a huge success this