Fantasy Baseball News 2008

[Hache Man]

NL Projected Pitching Staffs

This is the last of the four projected rosters columns. I hoped to have it up Saturday, but draft guide updates were forced to take priority. I'll have two notes columns up before next weekend. AL notes will be posted late Thursday night, with NL notes following the next night. I'll then finish off the prospects columns with the NL West sometime later next week.

As with the AL projected pitching staffs, I'm leaving out most of the injured pitchers, though I'll be sure to note them in the comments.


National League Pitching Staffs

Arizona

Brandon Webb
Dan Haren
Doug Davis
Micah Owings
Edgar Gonzalez

Next five: Yusmeiro Petit, Dustin Nippert, Max Scherzer, Juan Gutierrez, Billy Buckner

Randy Johnson figures to begin the season on the disabled list as he continues his recovery from back surgery. Gonzalez would be the favorite to make a start in his place during the first week. Johnson could then be ready to go when a fifth starter is needed for the second time.

CL Brandon Lyon
8th Tony Pena
7th Chad Qualls
LS Doug Slaten
MR Juan Cruz
MR Dustin Nippert
MR Brandon Medders

Next five: Buckner, Petit, Leo Rosales, Jailen Peguero, Emiliano Fruto

It's a good thing he was named the closer last month because Lyon has a 16.20 ERA this spring. Manager Bob Melvin won't have a lot of patience if Lyon's struggles linger into the regular season. It's for good reason that I've had Pena ranked as the game's No. 2 setup man (behind Carlos Marmol) since camp opened. … If Johnson is on the DL and Gonzalez is in the rotation, the Diamondbacks would have room for both Nippert and Medders on their pitching staff initially. Both are out of options, and the choice between them will likely have to come eventually. Alternatively, the D'backs could trade one of them now and go with 11 pitchers until Johnson returns. They might be frustrated enough with Nippert to sell him off. Even though he has a 14.63 ERA this spring, it's hard to imagine him clearing waivers.

Target: Pena - He's the one of the late-inning reliever with "closer-type stuff," and he pitched well enough last year that Melvin shouldn't hesitate to give him a shot in the ninth.

Avoid: Davis - His WHIP will be a killer even if manages to finesse his way to a respectable win total and ERA for a second year in a row.


Atlanta

Tim Hudson
John Smoltz
Tom Glavine
Mike Hampton
Jair Jurrjens
atlantabraves.com
Next five: Chuck James, Buddy Carlyle, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jeff Bennett, Charlie Morton

James has made enough progress in his return from a shoulder injury that he should be ready to take over if Smoltz needs to open the year on the DL. It'll probably be Wednesday or Thursday before Smoltz knows whether his shoulder will allow him to start the season on time. … Regardless, there should be enough innings for James to go around. He's a better choice in NL-only leagues than Glavine or Hampton.

CL Rafael Soriano
8th Peter Moylan
7th Manny Acosta
LS Will Ohman
MR Blaine Boyer
MR Jeff Bennett
MR Royce Ring

Next five: Tyler Yates, Buddy Carlyle, Chris Resop, Jeff Ridgway, Phil Stockman

There were five great bets for the bullpen at the beginning of the spring, but Yates has put his spot in serious jeopardy due to poor command. Now he's battling Boyer, Bennett, Ring, Carlyle and Resop for three openings. Boyer would seem to have the clear edge for one, and it figures that either Bennett or Carlyle will stick as a long man. I have Ring getting the nod for the last spot. Of the six, only Bennett has options left. Carlyle and Resop would have a better chance of clearing waivers than the others. … Mike Gonzalez is on pace for a June return following Tommy John surgery.

Target: Hudson - As good as his changeup has looked this spring, he might even improve on last year's numbers.

Avoid: Glavine - He was a fine pickup for the Braves, but in fantasy leagues, his ERA shouldn't be good enough to justify living with the weak WHIP and strikeout rate.


Chicago

Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Ryan Dempster
Rich Hill
Jon Lieber

Next five: Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, Kevin Hart, Neal Cotts

I see the Cubs having their actual No. 4 starter seventh on the depth chart, but their current five should be decent enough as long as Hill's spring control problems are merely an aberration. The key will be how quickly they yank Dempster if/when he struggles. As little reason as there is to believe that he'll be a quality starter, they shouldn't have much patience at all. … Since all indications are that Lieber is going to be the choice for the fifth spot, Marquis could be traded before the end of the week.

CL Kerry Wood
8th Carlos Marmol
7th Bob Howry
LS Scott Eyre
MR Michael Wuertz
MR Jason Marquis
MR Kevin Hart

Next five: Carmen Pignatiello, Tim Lahey, Jose Ascanio, Juan Mateo, Billy Petrick

The closer's role will belong to Wood, but Marmol remains the best bet in the Cubs' pen for the full season. … Eyre's sore elbow could get Pignatiello a spot to begin the season. … If Marquis goes, Lahey, a Rule-5 pick, would appear to be the top candidate to replace him.

Target: Zambrano - This is the best I've ever seen him in March.

Avoid: Wood - Would have been a better gamble had he not opened the season as a closer. Even three months of saves could be too much to ask for.


Cincinnati

Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Josh Fogg
Edinson Volquez

Next five: Matt Belisle, Homer Bailey, Jeremy Affeldt, Matt Maloney, Tom Shearn

The probable Opening Day lineup is a major issue, but it looks like the Reds have made all of the right moves with their pitching staff so far. Cueto is definitely a better short-term bet than Bailey, and Affeldt is in the pen where he belongs. While Cueto is receiving too much hype to qualify as a sleeper at this point, Volquez isn't being talked about and has considerable upside for a guy who will go undrafted in a lot of NL-only leagues.

CL Francisco Cordero
8th David Weathers
7th Jared Burton
LS Mike Stanton
MR Jeremy Affeldt
MR Todd Coffey
MR Bill Bray

Next five: Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Kent Mercker, Marcus McBeth, Josh Roenicke

Stanton's contract will keep him employed at the start of the year whether he deserves it or not. That means there are two spots for Coffey, Bray, Belisle and Mercker. The guess is that Belisle will go on the disabled list with a sore forearm. Bray has probably done enough to hold off Mercker.

Target: Cueto - It's possible he'll end up with simply too high of a price tag in some auctions, but there are certainly worse last-round picks in mixed leagues.

Avoid: Cordero - In part because he's not in as good of a situation as he was last year, he probably won't provide quite as much value for what he'll cost compared to the NL's other safe picks at closer.



Colorado

Jeff Francis
Aaron Cook
Ubaldo Jimenez
Mark Redman
Josh Towers

Next five: Franklin Morales, Kip Wells, Greg Reynolds, Victor Zambrano, Jose Capellan

The last two spots remain up in the air. Wells appears to be out of the mix, but the Rockies could still go with the other veterans and send down Morales. As little as I like the idea of Redman and Towers starting games in Coors, the Rockies might have to play it that way until Jason Hirsh (shoulder) returns. Morales looks nothing like he did at the end of last year.

CL Manny Corpas
8th Brian Fuentes
7th Luis Vizcaino
MR Taylor Buchholz
MR Matt Herges
MR Kip Wells
MR Ramon Ramirez

Next five: Ryan Speier, Jose Capellan, Micah Bowie, Juan Morillo, Josh Newman

Buchholz is on his way to becoming a very legitimate eighth-inning guy, so if the Rockies can get a reliable starter for Fuentes, they should go ahead and pull the trigger. Cleveland's Aaron Laffey, an extreme groundballer, could work nicely. … If Morales is in the rotation, then either Redman or Towers figures to get the last bullpen spot. Otherwise, it's between Ramirez and Speier.

Target: Corpas - He may not be any better than Fuentes, but it's unlikely that he'll give the Rockies reason to have the two switch roles again. With Corpas locked up long-term and Fuentes in his walk year, they'd have to be quite desperate to make a change.

Avoid: Morales - I don't know what happened, but he simply doesn't have it right now.


Florida

Mark Hendrickson
Andrew Miller
Ricky Nolasco
Scott Olsen

Rick VandenHurk

Next five: Chris Volstad, Gaby Hernandez, Burke Badenhop, Doug Waechter, Dallas Trahern

Sergio Mitre (forearm) is expected to miss at least two months, and Anibal Sanchez (shoulder) probably won't be back before the break. … Although Nolasco is listed as the third starter, that's just a guess. He's battling VandenHurk, Volstad and Badenhop for two rotation spots. If Olsen (shoulder) is ready to go in the fourth game as expected, the Marlins won't need a fifth starter until April 13. As a result, three of the candidates figure to start off in the minors. Volstad has been best of the candidates this spring, but since he lacks experience and both Nolasco and VandenHurk have been OK, I'm predicting that he'll spend the first couple of months in the minors.

CL Kevin Gregg
8th Matt Lindstrom
7th Taylor Tankersley
7th Lee Gardner
LS Renyel Pinto
MR Justin Miller
MR Logan Kensing
MR Joe Nelson

Next five: Badenhop, Daniel Barone, Carlos Martinez, Eulogio De La Cruz, Scott Nestor

With the fifth starter in the minors, the Marlins will have room for an eighth reliever initially. That figures to be Nelson or Badenhop. … Lindstrom will probably get to open the season as the Marlins' top setup man, but he hasn't been nearly as effective as the competition this spring. If his slump continues, then perhaps Kensing would take over as the fallback in the closer's role should Gregg struggle or get traded.

Target: Lindstrom - I don't like the way he's performed this month, but he was the Marlins' best reliever at the end of last year. He remains one of the better sleeper save candidates.

Avoid: Gregg - The Marlins will have every reason to trade him in June or July, and there's a good chance he'd be a setup man elsewhere.


Houston

Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Brandon Backe
Shawn Chacon
Woody Williams

Next five: Chris Sampson, Brian Moehler, Jack Cassel, Brad James, Dave Borkowski

Williams' solid outing Sunday means he'll probably get a chance to carry a rotation spot into the regular season. His $6.5 million salary won't save him then if he continues to give up two hits per inning.

CL Jose Valverde
8th Doug Brocail
7th Oscar Villarreal
LS Wesley Wright
MR Chris Sampson
MR Geoff Geary
MR Brian Moehler

Next five: Borkowski, Cassel, Chad Paronto, Ryan Houston, Mark McLemore

The Astros moved Lidge, then traded one quality reliever for another and now have… umm… one quality reliever. Brocail will start off on middle relief if he can't bounce back this week. The Astros may be forced to mix and match setup men. … Barring a trade, Moehler or Borkowski figures to get the last spot. Moehler has a bizarre 13/0 K/BB ratio in 12 2/3 innings this spring, giving him the edge (at his typical career rate, he'd have seven strikeouts and four walks in that many innings).

Target: None - Wandy would be fine at a buck or two, but he'll likely go for more in most leagues. None of the other non-Oswalt starters projects as an asset.

Avoid: Oswalt - He's not going to collapse this year, but he won't help in WHIP and strikeouts like he used to. Also, below average defenders at shortstop and third will hurt his cause.


Los Angeles

Brad Penny
Derek Lowe
Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Esteban Loaiza

Next five: Chan Ho Park, Clayton Kershaw, Hong-Chih Kuo, Eric Stults, James McDonald

The Dodgers' fifth starter with Jason Schmidt (shoulder) sidelined still hasn't been announced, though Loaiza is expected to be the choice. Kershaw has displayed incredible potential, but he averaged fewer than five innings per start last year and probably isn't going to be allowed to throw more than 150 innings in 2008. It's not his time just yet. Loaiza should do well enough as a stopgap and will be an option in NL-only leagues at the start of the year.

CL Takashi Saito
8th Jonathan Broxton
7th Scott Proctor
7th Joe Beimel
MR Hong-Chih Kuo
MR Rudy Seanez
MR Chan Ho Park

Next five: Yhency Brazoban, Mike Myers, Eric Hull, Brian Falkenborg, Jonathan Meloan

Seanez had had groin troubles, but he still figures to occupy the sixth spot in the pen. The last opening remains a mystery. Brazoban isn't ready, and Myers hasn't done anything this spring. The Dodgers could keep Park as a long man or go to someone like Falkenborg or Ramon Troncoso. My guess is that they'll make a waiver claim if they don't think Park is worth using as a middle reliever.

Target: Billngsley - If his spring struggles take a toll, it'd just make him a better value pick. He's healthy, and his command will come with more work, just like it did last year.

Avoid: Penny - He's probably the weakest investment among the starters, though he doesn't necessarily have to be avoided. Feel free to draft him and trade him before his annual second-half swoon.



Milwaukee

Ben Sheets
Jeff Suppan
Dave Bush
Claudio Vargas
Manny Parra

Next five: Carlos Villanueva, Chris Narveson, Zach Jackson, Steve Hammond, Seth McClung

The Brewers opened the spring eight deep, only to lose Yovani Gallardo (knee) and Chris Capuano (elbow). Gallardo should return in mid-April, but Capuano is probably out for the season. … With the veterans apparently having clinched openings, it's between Parra and Villanueva for the fifth spot. Both have looked very good, though Parra did get lit up in his last outing. Indications are that Villanueva will be the odd man out initially. Parra, though, could join him at Nashville to make room for Gallardo just a couple of weeks into the season.

CL Eric Gagne
8th Derrick Turnbow
7th David Riske
LS Brian Shouse
MR Guillermo Mota
MR Salomon Torres
MR Seth McClung

Next five: Villanueva, Narveson, Luis Pena, Mitch Stetter, Stephen Bray

Turnbow shouldn't really be the eighth-inning guy, but he'll probably get a chance to hold on to the job at the start of the year. Riske will be the Brewers' most reliable reliever, and Mota has been awfully impressive this spring. … McClung is out of options, giving him the edge for the last spot.

Target: Parra - Even if Parra and Villanueva don't have much value early on, they'll likely reward the patient once they receive opportunities.

Avoid: Suppan - He'll eat innings for the Brewers, but he's not likely to help fantasy teams in the process, even though he will benefit from the move to replace Ryan Braun at third base with Bill Hall.


New York

Johan Santana
Pedro Martinez
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
newyorkmets.com
Next five: Tony Armas Jr., Jorge Sosa, Nelson Figueroa, Adam Bostick, Brian Stokes

The Mets won't need a fifth starter for the first time until April 12. By that time, they might be able to turn to Orlando Hernandez, who figures to start off on the disabled list as he continues to build arm strength. If he's still not ready, then Pelfrey could be the choice. Pelfrey, though, needs to work on his secondary pitches in Triple-A. My guess is that the Mets will land themselves an alternative before Opening Day.

CL Billy Wagner
8th Aaron Heilman
7th Matt Wise
7th Pedro Feliciano
LS Scott Schoeneweis
MR Jorge Sosa
MR Steven Register

Next five: Brian Stokes, Joe Smith, Ruddy Lugo, Willie Collazo, Carlos Muniz

The Mets knew what seven relievers they wanted to carry at the beginning of the spring, but Duaner Sanchez (shoulder) probably won't be ready to go on Opening Day, creating one spot. Register, a Rule-5 pick from Colorado, is the favorite to claim it. However, Stokes is out of options and still has a shot.

Target: Santana - My No. 1 player in NL-only leagues and No. 2 overall.

Avoid: Hernandez - He's typically a nice play in the shallowest of leagues when healthy, but that he altered his delivery to compensate for a sore foot appears to have taken away most of his upside.


Philadelphia

Brett Myers
Cole Hamels
Kyle Kendrick
Jamie Moyer
Adam Eaton

Next five: Chad Durbin, J.D. Durbin, Travis Blackley, J.A. Happ, Carlos Carrasco

Friday's strong outing likely clinched a spot for Eaton. He hasn't walked a batter in 12 1/3 innings this spring, which is a nice change from a 2007 season in which he issued 71 walks in 161 2/3 innings. … Kris Benson (shoulder) could be back to challenge for a job in May or June.

CL Brad Lidge
8th Tom Gordon
7th Ryan Madson
LS J.C. Romero
MR Chad Durbin
MR Clay Condrey
MR J.D. Durbin

Next five: Blackley, Gary Knotts, Vic Darensbourg, Joe Bisenius, Fabio Castro

Lidge is still iffy for Opening Day after knee surgery. If he's not ready, then Gordon will close. … If Lidge is healthy, then five spots will be accounted for. Francisco Rosario (shoulder) seemed like a good bet for the sixth before going down. Now it's between Condrey, J.D. Durbin, Blackley, Knotts and Darensbourg for two openings. Condrey is the clear favorite for the first. Durbin is out of options and Blackley is a Rule-5 pick, helping their cases. However, there's a good chance the Phillies will make a trade or a waiver claim. It's also possible that they'll choose to carry only 11 pitches, giving them room for Wes Helms.

Target: Myers - Hamels is the Phillies' true No. 1 starter, of course, but Myers is a threat to fan 200 batters and post an ERA under 4.00.

Avoid: Kendrick - Not enough strikeouts or groundouts. He looks like a long-term fifth starter at best.


Pittsburgh

Ian Snell
Tom Gorzelanny
Paul Maholm
Matt Morris
Zach Duke

Next five: John Van Benchoten, Bryan Bullington, Phil Dumatrait, Jarey Wright, Casey Fossum

The Pirates' rotation has been set since the end of last season, with only an injury or a particularly bad spring from Duke likely to lead to any changes. Of course, there was also the pipe dream of finding a taker for Morris' contract. He'll have to get off to another solid start for that to happen, though.

CL Matt Capps
8th Damaso Marte
7th John Grabow
MR Sean Burnett
MR Franquelis Osoria
MR Evan Meek
MR Hector Carrasco

Next five: Wright, Byung-Hyun Kim, Fossum, Dumatrait, Masumi Kuwata

The bullpen, on the other hand, had just three places set after Torres was traded, with Osoria the clear favorite for the fourth. Burnett is a definite now after posting a 0.90 ERA this spring, but there are still two openings for Meek, Carrasco, Wright, Kim, Fossum and Dumatrait. Kim was supposed to have a hold on one, but he's been terrible so far and might be released this week. As a Rule-5 pick, Meek has a edge for one spot. Carrasco seems like a better bet than Wright and Fossum for the other.

Target: Capps - He probably won't finish among the NL leaders in saves, but he'll help a great deal in WHIP and since the Pirates will get him more work in tie games than most closers, he should be good for four or five wins.

Avoid: Duke - While he should be better than last year, there won't be any miracle turnaround for Duke. As poor of a bet as he will be for strikeouts and wins, he's not even worth a flier.



St. Louis

Adam Wainwright
Todd Wellemeyer
Brad Thompson
Braden Looper
Kyle Lohse

Next five: Anthony Reyes, Mitchell Boggs, Blake Hawksworth, Jaime Garcia, Kyle McClellan

The Cards have set up their rotation so that Wellemeyer and Thompson will start the second and third games, even though those are the two candidates to be bumped when Joel Pineiro (shoulder) returns, hopefully in mid-April. Thompson is probably the favorite to head back to the bullpen then. … All things being equal, it would have made a lot of sense for the Cards to put Reyes in the rotation and keep Thompson in a bullpen short on experience. Still, the Cards felt that strongly that Reyes wouldn't help them. He badly needs a trade. … Matt Clement (shoulder) and Mark Mulder (shoulder) might be options for the rotation come May.

CL Jason Isringhausen
8th Ryan Franklin
7th Russ Springer
LS Randy Flores
MR Ron Villone
MR Kyle McClellan
MR Kelvin Jimenez

Next five: Jason Motte, Cliff Politte, Mark Worrell, Ron Flores, Chris Perez

McClellan is poised to be one of the biggest surprises to crack an Opening Day roster. The 23-year-old had a 1.81 ERA in 59 2/3 innings between Single-A Palm Beach and Double-A Springfield last season. … Ideally, the Cards will have Thompson or Wellemeyer available in middle relief by mid-April, Tyler Johnson in his old role by the end of the month and Josh Kinney back from Tommy John surgery in May.

Target: Lohse - In a pretty good situation for pitchers for the first time in his career, Lohse is an option at up to $3 in NL-only leagues.

Avoid: Looper - Faded as last year went along and hasn't impressed at all this spring.


San Diego

Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Greg Maddux
Randy Wolf
Justin Germano

Next five: Wilfredo Ledezma, Glendon Rusch, Wade LeBlanc, Shawn Estes, Tim Stauffer

Peavy clearly wasn't right during his start Friday, but hopefully that was more about a dead arm than any kind of legitimate shoulder problem. He says he's not concerned, so we'll just have to believe him for now. … Fortunately, Estes was terrible right from the start of camp, snuffing out that threat. As a result, it looks like Germano will retain his hold on a rotation spot. Mark Prior (shoulder) will surely get a crack of the job, if he comes back healthy in May, but no one will be holding their breath for that to happen.

CL Trevor Hoffman
8th Heath Bell
7th Cla Meredith
LS Joe Thatcher
MR Kevin Cameron
MR Glendon Rusch
MR Wilfredo Ledezma

Next five: Enrique Gonzalez, Carlos Guevara, Adam Bass, Mauro Zarate, Wilton Lopez

Justin Hampson's shoulder injury means there should be room for both Rusch and Ledezma. Gonzalez would seem to be the only threat to overtake one of the lefties. … The Padres may find a way to stash Guevara, a Rule-5 pick from the Reds, on the DL this week.

Target: Young - He's taken measures to overcome his back and oblique problems, and he's throwing quite well this spring.

Avoid: Meredith - After the step back he took last year, it's mostly Petco that gets him even a $1 ranking on my draft lists.


San Francisco

Barry Zito
Matt Cain
Tim Lincecum
Kevin Correia
Jonathan Sanchez

Next five: Pat Misch, Nick Pereira, Victor Santos, Matt Palmer, Henry Sosa

Noah Lowry is targeting a mid-April return after wrist surgery earlier this month. Once back, he'll bump either Correia or, more likely, Sanchez to the bullpen. … Correia is dealing with a cranky shoulder, but he's expected to be ready for the season. If not, Misch, a finesse lefty, would be the top candidate to fill in.

CL Brian Wilson
8th Tyler Walker
7th Brad Hennessey
LS Steve Kline
MR Merkin Valdez
MR Jack Taschner
MR Erick Threets

Next five: Randy Messenger, Keiichi Yabu, Bartolome Fortunato, Billy Sadler, Santos

Vinnie Chulk is expected to begin the year on the DL with shoulder tendinitis, leaving three openings in the San Francisco pen. Valdez and Taschner seem definite now, with Valdez getting a spot because he's out of options. Threets would seem to have the edge for the other spot for the same reason. If the Giants can find someone to pick up Kline's contract, they'd probably go with Yabu in the seventh spot. Messenger will eventually get his old job back, but the Giants don't think he's ready now.

Target: Cain - Lincecum could be just as effective, but Cain is the better bet of the two to go 200 innings.

Avoid: Zito - Even if pitching in front of what could be the game's best defensive outfield doesn't figure to make Zito anything more than a fourth starter in NL-only leagues.


Washington

Odalis Perez
Jason Bergmann
Tim Redding
Matt Chico

Shawn Hill

Next five: John Lannan, Tyler Clippard, Mike O'Connor, Collin Balester, Garrett Mock

The surprising move to release John Patterson apparently set the Nationals' rotation, though the team still hasn't announced whether Chico or Lannan will get the last spot. The team might need both. The hope is that Hill (forearm) will start April 13, the first time the Nationals need a fifth starter, but that's no given, and Redding left his start Sunday due to back spasms.

CL Chad Cordero
8th Jon Rauch
7th Luis Ayala
LS Ray King
MR Jesus Colome
MR Saul Rivera
MR Joel Hanrahan
MR Chris Schroder

Next five: Mike Bacsik, Jason Stanford, Arnie Munoz, Adam Carr, Steven Shell

That Hill is to open the year on the DL likely saves Schroder for now. Despite his 3.18 ERA in 45 1/3 innings last year, he was expected to return to Triple-A to make room for Hanrahan, who is out of options. The other possibility is that the Nats send Schroder down and go with 11 pitchers until Hill returns.

Target: Rauch - If this is the summer that the Nats finally trade Cordero, Rauch would likely get to take over the closer's role.

Avoid: All of the starters - Hill will likely be solid when healthy, but he can't be counted on for even 20 starts. I like Clippard better than the rest of the bunch.

[Hache Man]

The Stay-Away List


I've spent the past few weeks going over my favorite sleepers, devoting one column each to AL-only pitchers, AL-only hitters, NL-only pitchers, and NL-only hitters. With the season officially underway in Japan and everyone sneaking in last-minute drafts before the "real" Opening Day that's mercifully right around the corner, let's switch gears this week and examine the overrated players, potential busts, and injury risks who make up my annual "Stay-Away List."

Last year's version included guys like Nick Johnson, Freddy Garcia, Gary Matthews Jr., Mark Prior, Anibal Sanchez, and Seth McClung, all of whom made the owners who drafted them sorry that they did. My focus this year is on big-name players who, for various reasons, I'd do my best to avoid on draft day. The players profiled below aren't necessarily bad, but they're all being drafted higher than they should be or come along with too much risk for my tastes.

Joe Borowski (RP, Cleveland Indians) – Borowski saved an AL-leading 45 games last year, but thanks to his 5.07 ERA and league-worst eight blown saves only David Weathers and Chad Cordero converted a lower percentage of save chances. He's no better than the Indians' fourth-best reliever following the addition of Masahide Kobayashi to go along with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez, and it all adds up to the eventual loss of ninth-inning duties.

Jim Edmonds (OF, San Diego Padres) – Whatever chance Edmonds had of putting together a comeback season at the age of 38 took a major hit when he was traded to San Diego. Petco Park is the worst possible destination for an extreme fly-ball hitter who already struggled to post decent batting averages over the past few years. Edmonds has never been a good bet to stay healthy and is questionable for Opening Day because of a calf injury.

Dan Haren (SP, Arizona Diamondbacks) – Moving to the weaker NL will give Haren a value boost, but he'll miss the vast foul territory in Oakland and figures to see his ERA jump while going to one of baseball's most hitter-friendly environments in Arizona. Consider that Haren has a 3.43 career ERA in Oakland, compared to a 4.11 ERA everywhere else, and you may think twice about betting on him to compete for another ERA title this year.

Livan Hernandez (SP, Minnesota Twins) – Hernandez's ERA, WHIP, OPS against, strikeout rate, and strikeout-to-walk ratio have all gotten worse in four straight seasons and now he's moving to the AL after a career spent in the NL. Even including his prime years Hernandez amassed a 4.91 career ERA during interleague play. His velocity has disappeared while his waistband expanded, and a mid-80s "fastball" doesn't figure to get the job done against Detroit and Cleveland.

Kyle Kendrick (SP, Philadelphia Phillies) – Kendrick was impressive while going 10-4 as a rookie, but was likely pitching over his head. He totaled just 49 strikeouts in 121 innings and previously managed just 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors, which signals that he may struggle to be more than a fourth starter long term. Toss in a homer-inflating home ballpark and he'll have plenty of trouble keeping his ERA below 4.00 again.

Kaz Matsui (2B, Houston Astros) – Two words: anal fissure.

Brad Penny (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers) – Penny posted a career-best 3.03 ERA last season despite a sub par 135-to-73 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Aside from dating Eliza Dushku, the secret to his success was serving up just nine homers in 208 innings. He averaged 21 homers allowed per 208 innings during the previous seven years of his career, so count on Penny's ERA returning to the 3.75-4.25 range. He's also yet to post back-to-back 200-inning seasons.

Aaron Rowand (OF, San Francisco Giants) – What do you get when you take a 30-year-old coming off a career-year and move him from a hitter's haven to a pitcher-friendly ballpark? You get a spot on this list, for one thing. Rowand had a fantastic 2007 season, but his OPS was 90 points lower away from Philadelphia and he hit just .265 with a .740 OPS during the previous two years. Don't expect him to put up big numbers in the Giants' horrendous lineup.

Scot Shields (RP, Los Angeles Angels) – Long one of baseball's best, most underrated relievers, Shields' heavy workloads may have finally gotten to him. He fell apart down the stretch last year, posting a 7.36 ERA after the All-Star break following a 1.76 ERA in the first half, and is now questionable for Opening Day due to a forearm injury. Shields is 32 years old, has averaged 90 innings out of the bullpen over the past four seasons, and may be done as an elite setup man.

Alfonso Soriano (OF, Chicago Cubs) – Soriano remains as potent as ever at the plate and moving to the middle of the lineup will give him more RBI chances, but his days of swiping 40 bases may be gone. Leaving the leadoff spot will mean fewer running chances and lingering concerns about last year's quadriceps injury could make Soriano even more cautious on the bases. He could have a career-year with the bat and still lose fantasy value if he's not running.

Dontrelle Willis (SP, Detroit Tigers) – Many people continue to view Willis as having lots of upside, but he's coming off a career-worst 5.17 ERA that included right-handers batting .320 with a .919 OPS against him. Since 2005 his strikeout rate has dipped while his control has deteriorated, and a move to the superior AL certainly won't help. Detroit's lineup will provide enough run support for Willis to win plenty of games, but his ERA and WHIP figure to be ugly.

Barry Zito (SP, San Francisco Giants) – Not a hard-thrower to begin with, Zito has lost three miles per hour on his fastball over the past two seasons and the lack of velocity caught up with him in a big way last year. Even after tossing five shutout innings last week Zito has posted an ugly 10.31 ERA in five spring outings, managing just four strikeouts (along with 13 walks) in 18.1 innings. Another 4.50 ERA is possible, but let someone else bet on an unlikely return to his A's form.

Carlos Zambrano (SP, Chicago Cubs) – Zambrano's new $91.5 million contract can't wipe away the fact that he had a 5.62 ERA through a dozen starts last season and then lost five straight games with an ugly 9.42 ERA in the second half after seemingly turning things around. He finished strong, and his overall numbers certainly weren't bad, but there's an awful lot of mileage on his arm and he's showing signs of slowing down.

[Hache Man]

AL Team-by-Team Notes

This is the first of two notes columns coming out prior to this weekend's drafts. I'll have the NL notes up late Friday night. During the regular season, I'll follow the same format, except columns will be published on Sunday and Monday mornings. However, first up next week, I'll have the NL West prospects column, finishing off the division-by-division rundown.

American League Notes

Baltimore - With just one extra-base hit in 41 at-bats this spring, Ramon Hernandez has done little to suggest that he's in for a bounce-back campaign. He's still going to start four out of every five games, but his backup, Guillermo Quiroz, qualifies as a deep sleeper in AL-only leagues. The Orioles are probably going to be looking to move Hernandez in July to make room for Matt Wieters in 2009, and it's possible Quiroz could spend a couple of months as a regular. … Luis Hernandez is the early choice to be the worst player in an Opening Day lineup this season. He's been horrible offensively (.171/.271/.195) and erratic defensively (six errors) this spring, but he still figures to get the nod over Brandon Fahey at shortstop. Even starting six games per week, Hernandez might not have any fantasy value at all. The Orioles need to be actively exploring the waiver wire for better options, but with Ronny Cedeno and Clint Barmes having won jobs, Josh Wilson, Alex Cintron and Abraham Nunez might be the best options out there. … If Jay Gibbons' suspension is repealed, then he'll likely have a bench spot, leaving no room for Scott Moore or Tike Redman. As awful as Gibbons has looked this spring, the Orioles should strongly consider eating his contract and moving on. Moore has displayed ample potential and would serve as the No. 2 man at both infield corners and the DH spot.

Boston - The Red Sox opened the season with bo