Fantasy Football News 2008

[Hache Man]

Only for the Addicts
February is for the fantasy football addict. While most owners hibernate or turn to baseball, the junkies turn to the Scouting Combine and Free Agency. Or they participate in a Mock Draft the day after the Super Bowl.

The results below are more entertaining than instructive. With free agency and the NFL Draft ready to shake up fantasy value, this draft is like a presidential poll taken six months before the first primary. Let's take a look.


Round One

1.01. "Smitty", Fantasy Football Extreme – Adrian Peterson
1.02 – Football Diehards – LaDainian Tomlinson
1.03 – Brad Evans, Yahoo Sports – Brian Westbrook
1.04 – The FootballExpert.com – Joseph Addai
1.05 – Jamey Eisenberg, CBSSportsline – Tom Brady
1.06 – Rotoworld – Steven Jackson
1.07 – Andy Behrens, Yahoo Sports– Larry Johnson
1.08 – JunkyardJake.com – Peyton Manning
1.09 – Russ Bliss, FantasyFootballStarters.com – Frank Gore
1.10 – Dave Richard, CBS Sportsline – Clinton Portis
1.11 – Dan Labert, Fantasy Tailgate.com – Willis McGahee
1.12 – Adam Lasik, FantasyWhiz.com – Ryan Grant

My pick: Jackson was a no-brainer at that stage. Anyone in that slot makes the same pick.

It's early, but I see a big drop-off after the top five running backs. I'm debating whether Jackson should be ahead of Adrian Peterson for the number two slot next year. Once he returned from injury in the second half of the year, he played as expected. minnesotavikings.com

Shadiest Pick: Larry Johnson – I'd rather not take a quarterback so high, but those picks won't kill you. I'm not optimistic Kansas City is going to turn their offense or offensive line around. I don't see LJ as a first-round pick. kansascitychiefs.com

Trends, Etc: With Peterson off the board first, I knew it was a new year. Don't expect that to happen often, but the reasoning is understandable. He's a bigger boom-or-bust than the rest of the top five, but his "boom" could include league records. You are buying a lottery ticket, but I'd rather go safe in round one. It would help Peterson out greatly if Chester Taylor was dealt, but that isn't likely to happen.

Brady's big year is going to push him into the first round, but the over/under on his touchdowns next season is closer to 30 than 50. With solid, unspectacular backs like Portis and McGahee in the first round, I can't kill taking a sure thing quarterback. washingtonredskins.com

I would expect Gore to fall further in most drafts after his down year. Maybe that's wishful thinking on my part. … Ryan Grant is locked in to the Packers starting job, so he deserves to go this high. greenbaypackers.com

Round Two

2.01. Marshawn Lynch
2.02. Reggie Bush
2.03. Willie Parker
2.04. Marion Barber
2.05. Larry Fitzgerald
2.06. Randy Moss
2.07. Rotoworld - Terrell Owens
2.08. Earnest Graham
2.09. Jamal Lewis
2.10. Brandon Jacobs
2.11. Reggie Wayne
2.12. Ronnie Brown

Best Value: Randy Moss – The odds are heavily weighted towards him staying in New England and finding a way to score 15 more times.

Shadiest Pick: Reggie Bush – Even if Deuce McAllister doesn't return 100%, the Saints have Pierre Thomas behind Bush and should bring back Aaron Stecker. Bush hasn't shown he can handle the load. He's not going to hit 250 carries and this also isn't a PPR league.

Trends, Etc: Marshawn Lynch needs some help from his teammates, but he should be one of the safest fantasy picks in the league. … Barber has been worth this draft slot the last few years because of his scores. With Julius Jones leaving, Barber may wind up getting taken in the first round by August. It depends on whom the Cowboys wind up pairing him with. buffalobills.com

Earnest Graham is an interesting case. He deserves to carry the load in Tampa, but I'm not sure he'll get the chance. Even if Cadillac Williams doesn't make it back, look for Jon Gruden to add a quality back to the mix. … Ronnie Brown's ACL tear didn't hurt his stock as much as one would expect. Same goes for Ahmad Bradshaw's emergence and Brandon Jacobs' stock. Either way, the sure-thing running backs are gone at this point. NY Giants

Round Three

3.01. Michael Turner
3.02. Andre Johnson
3.03. Braylon Edwards
3.04. T.J. Houshmandezadeh
3.05. Maurice Jones-Drew
3.06. Rotoworld - Chad Johnson
3.07. Darren McFadden
3.08. Steve Smith
3.09. Plaxico Burress
3.10. Marques Colston
3.11. Torry Holt
3.12. Wes Welker

My Pick: I was set to take Mo-Jo as my RB2, but saw a big drop-off at running back after that. It wasn't worth reaching for my next name. Considering Ocho Cinco set his career high in yards in 2007, I'm not worried about his production or any trade rumors. He's stuck in Cincy whether he likes it or not. indianapoliscolts.com

Best value: Jones-Drew was frustrating to own in 2007, but Fred Taylor is another year older and less likely to repeat his performance. Mo-Jo is a solid third round back because he'll score. jacksonvillejaguars.com

Trends, Etc: There were a few signs in this round how this draft was a fun exercise, but shouldn't be taken too seriously. I didn't even realize we were allowed to take impending rookies. Giving them a draft slot before knowing their NFL team is just guesswork, but McFadden will be worth their draft slot.

The same goes for taking Michael Turner. I agree Turner will be worth this spot as a starter, if not higher, and he'll probably get in a favorable situation with plenty of backfields undecided around the league. sandiegochargers.com

It was interesting to see Johnson go after teammate Houshmandzadeh for the first time in memory. Old favorites Steve Smith and Torry Holt got sent down a round because of some slowdown in their performance. Smith especially had a good excuse and could be a good value next year. carolinapanthers.com



Round Four

4.01. Rudi Johnson
4.02. Roy Williams
4.03. Greg Jennings
4.04. Laurence Maroney
4.05. LenDale White
4.06. Brandon Marshall
4.07. Rotoworld- Anquan Boldin
4.08. Kellen Winslow
4.09. Tony Romo
4.10. Antonio Gates
4.11. Jason Witten
4.12. Carson Palmer

My pick: Yep, that's three straight receivers for my team. After White and Maroney were off the board, I knew I'd build my team to be strong at every position but RB2. The backs available a few rounds from now weren't going to be much worse. I wound up with Thomas Jones, Justin Fargas, and Felix Jones in rounds 6-8 as my next three running backs. oaklandraiders.com

I considered taking Palmer or Romo, but was hoping one of them or Drew Brees fell to me in round five. Brees made it.

Best Value: Laurence Maroney – It's very early, but Maroney and LenDale White are going to be Rotoworld favorites if they slip this far. They are talented young starting running backs coming off mediocre years, which is a recipe for value. tennesseetitans.com

White will be the rare back with an over/under of 325 carries. Maroney matured late in the year with four 100-yard games and seven touchdowns in his last seven contests, including the playoffs.

Shadiest Pick: Rudi Johnson – The first pick of the draft that made me say goo. I'd put Rudi behind Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James as a veteran back in steep decline, and they didn't go for a while. I'd be surprised if Johnson starts in Week 1 next year. arizonacardinals.com

Trends, Etc: Solid round of picks! With the top of the tight ends so bunched up, no one wanted to take one first. That leads to nice value for Gates here. Palmer and Romo also come at a great price considering Brady and Manning went in round one. I may have been greedy waiting to take a quarterback. I will probably have Palmer third in the rankings when the time comes.

Greg Jennings and Brandon Marshall have forced themselves close to the top tier of receivers with breakout years.

Round Five

5.01. Santonio Holmes
5.02. DeAngelo Williams
5.03. Roddy White
5.04. Tony Gonzalez
5.05. Hines Ward
5.06. Rotoworld - Drew Brees
5.07. Rashard Mendenhall
5.08. Jonathan Stewart
5.09. Matt Hasselbeck
5.10. Travis Henry
5.11. Shaun Alexander
5.12. Laveranues Coles

My Pick: Honestly, I spaced about the pre-rookie backs; good thing it's February. Most likely, they will wind up with ADPs higher than the fifth-round. Taking Brees was easy because I saw a big tier drop after him at quarterback, and I knew the generic veteran runners would stick around.

Trends, Etc.: No picks in this round were too out of place, although Shaun Alexander may be a backup in a month. … Travis Henry wants to stay in Denver, but it's uncertain if the Broncos truly want to keep him. … Laveranues Coles went a few rounds ahead of Jerricho Cotchery despite an injury-plagued year. … DeAngelo Williams has a good chance to carry the load in Carolina next year, but we said that in February last year. … Santonio Holmes is the best wideout pick of the round. Roddy White just needs to find out who is quarterback is.

[Hache Man]

PT dwindling for Biedrins
There wasn't a lot going on in the NBA on Monday. The afternoon news was light and there weren't a lot of games, but there were enough fantasy storylines in last night's action to take care of an entire Dose. If you got to watch the Wizards lose to the Warriors, you caught one of the better games of the season. But if you own Andris Biedrins, you probably didn't enjoy it quite as much as the average fan.

Warriors – Wizards – Stephen Jackson blew up for 41 points and four threes, while the Warriors got nice production from Baron Davis and Monta Ellis to comeback from 23 down to shock the Wizards. Biedrins and Al Harrington came off the bench, while Chris Webber and Matt Barnes got the starting nod. Harrington played a very solid game and made the most of his 33 minutes, but Biedrins saw just 23 minutes for four points and eight rebounds. And had the Warriors not made a furious comeback late, his numbers would have been cut in about half. The really frustrating thing is that Biedrins is so active when he's on the floor. Washington's Brendan Haywood probably would not have gone for 20 and 10 had Biedrins started, and the Warriors may not have had to come back from 23 points down had AB been in there most of the night. But Nellie will be Nellie, meaning owners of Biedrins and Harrington are going to have to be prepared for inconsistency for as long as Webber is getting his 13 minutes per game and clogging up the middle for Golden State. Biedrins' trade value is gone, so just hang in there with him.

On a side note, Jackson was apparently playing through a sprained ankle he suffered on Saturday night. He came down on Mike Bibby's foot, stayed on the ground for bit, and then somehow finished that game. I was off on Saturday and had no idea he had been injured, and I'm glad I didn't know, as it doesn't sound like he was ever in real jeopardy of missing this game.

For the Wizards, Roger Mason scored a career-high 32 points, Antawn Jamison had six steals and Haywood had his second straight 20-10 game. Caron Butler (hip) and Antonio Daniels (ankle) were out again. I expect Daniels to play Wednesday, but I think Butler is going to shut it down until the break is over, and that includes skipping the All-Star Game. Just a hunch.

Mavs – Sixers - Dirk Nowitzki hit just 4-of-15 shots and had in-game treatment on his back, but said afterwards that he is fine. Josh Howard left with a back injury and did not return, leaving his status for the rest of the week up in the air. J.J. Barea had 13 points, five assists and three 3-pointers for his best game of the year and Devean George started over Eddie Jones. Erick Dampier (ankle) and Jerry Stackhouse (hamstring) were also out with injuries. Brandon Bass had eight points and eight boards, and could have a couple more solid lines, especially if Dampier and Howard remain out. dallasmavericks.com

Andre Miller had 21 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and three steals as the Sixers spanked the Mavs. Looking at the Sixers' box score, it's hard to figure out how that happened, but it did.

Spurs – Raptors - Manu Ginobili's career-high 14 rebounds and season-high 34 points, to go along with six assists and six threes, were enough for the Spurs to beat the Raptors. Damon Stoudamire and Jacque Vaughn are sharing time at the point, but Michael Finley is clearly a better play right now. Jose Calderon scored a career-high 27 to go along with six assists for the Raps, while T.J. Ford and Chris Bosh were injured. Ford didn't finish the game with a wrist injury, while Bosh left and later returned with a knee injury. Hopefully they're both fine, but keep an eye out on their status over the next couple days. Calderon is shooting over 50% from the floor, 40% from downtown and 90% from the line. Nice.

Cavs – Magic - Larry Hughes exploded for 40 points on 12-of-19 shooting, while LeBron James had 29 points and 10 assists on 8-of-15 shooting. I wrote Larry Hughes off earlier this season, swearing I would never own him again. I'm going to stand by that, but if you happen to have him right now, or can pick him up, your timing is perfect. Hughes could play well the rest of the year and make me eat my words, but I like my odds. As much as he's shooting the ball this year, he was bound to finally have a big game when some shots went down. I'll be impressed if he can do this again in his next one, and then stay hot after the break.

Jameer Nelson had 22 points and a little bit of everything else in the loss, while Dwight Howard got into it with Stan Van Gundy for his lack of defense. I'm with SVG, as Howard hasn't blocked a shot in the last two games and only has five swats in his last six. Now we have to see how Howard bounces back from his first clash with his coach in Orlando. I'm guessing he comes back with a vengeance.

Lakers – Bobcats - Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol both went off again as the Lakers cruised over the Cats. Gerald Wallace is out for Charlotte, but will be back strong after the break. Nazr Mohammed had 22 points, 11 boards and a block in the loss, while Raymond Felton had his best game of the season at shooting guard, going for 29 points and eight assists on 11-of-20 shooting. Jason Richardson struggled in a start at small forward, while Jeff McInnis started at point guard. Things should go back to normal when Wallace returns, but that may not be the best news for point guard Felton.

Clippers – Bucks - Al Thornton led the Clippers with 25 points on 12-of-20 shooting as they beat the Bucks. Tim Thomas was out again with a back injury, but we're all hopeful that Thornton will hold onto the starting job for the rest of the season, regardless of whether Thomas is healthy or not. Sam Cassell had 21 points and eight assists, and Chris Kaman had 15 rebounds. Mo Williams scored 31 for the Bucks after missing a game with the flu, while Charlie Villanueva left with a knee injury. There's not a worse feeling in fantasy than picking up a "hot" guy and then having him go down early. And if you have someone producing on your bench, it only makes it worse. Michael Redd flirted with a triple-double despite hitting just 3-of-13 shots and Desmond Mason played well in the loss.

Rockets – Blazers - Brandon Roy returned from a death in the family for 15 points, five rebounds and eight assists, but the Blazers lost to the Rockets. In a very surprising move, Nate McMillan reneged on his decision to start Jarrett Jack until the All-Star break, starting Martell Webster instead. Neither player was great last night, and McMillan reportedly made the move for defensive purposes, even though Webster's not exactly dominant on that end of the court. If you picked up Jack based on the Feb. 6 story in the Oregonian (right around the time he almost triple-doubled), he'll hopefully be back in the starting five for the next one. Rafer Alston had 17 points, seven assists and three 3-pointers, and Yao Ming had 25 points to lead a balanced attack for the Rockets. They're the hottest team in the league, winners of 11 of their last 12 games and 16 of their last 20. Wow.

News and Notes

Shaquille O'Neal looked good in Suns' practice on Monday but it sounds like he may only make a brief appearance before the break, if any at all. The Suns are welding their basket supports to the floor in their practice facility after Shaq about ripped them down yesterday. Funny.

Mike Dunleavy is day-to-day with a knee injury, but it's not serious. The Star told me yesterday he "worked out" with the team, so take it for what it's worth. I'm guessing he plays tonight.

Udonis Haslem will be out for several more weeks with his sprained ankle, so Shawn Marion will continue to start at power forward for the Heat for now.

Ronnie Brewer's tailbone is feeling much better and he could play before the break. Tyson Chandler (flu) and Morris Peterson (back) will both return for the Hornets tonight, but if Peterson doesn't get it going soon, Jannero Pargo may replace him in the starting five. Kendrick Perkins (shoulder) is likely out again on Tuesday and may not play before the break, while Chris Mihm and James Jones have both been put on the shelf again indefinitely. Chris Duhon (knee) missed Bulls practice yesterday, but he and Kirk Hinrich (ribs) should both play tonight, while Daniel Gibson (hamstring) is questionable for the Cavs on Wednesday after missing last night's game. Nate Robinson (flu/quad) is getting back to health for the Knicks, but keep him benched until after the break. bostonceltics.ws

And if you're in a very deep league, Mickael Gelabale could be about to break into the Sonics' rotation for the rest of the season, for what it's worth.

[Hache Man]

Scouting Combine Preview
On Wednesday, February 20, the NFL will convene for its annual Scouting Combine. The showcase, held at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis, lasts six full days. Players participate by invitation only, and will be running around clad in skin-tight Under Armour as coaches, personnel departments, and medical people look on and evaluate.

There's a feeling in the NFL scouting community that the Combine, while still useful for certain things, usurps the work area scouts have done for the past four to five years. Coaches and GMs don't dive into the draft process until after their teams' seasons have concluded. They immediately turn their attention to the college bowl games, Senior Bowl, and the Combine. Since coaches and GMs have the real pull in their organizations, scouts' work can be put on the back burner when those with "more say" fall in love with certain players.

Nevertheless, it's an entertaining affair and certainly has an impact on where players will be drafted. Let's explore a few topics of note and what to look for.

McFadden Backing Down?

Arkansas RB Darren McFadden is wavering on whether to run the 40-yard dash. McFadden dropping out would be comparable to post-Buster Douglas Mike Tyson, when intimidation was his best asset, refusing to show up to the pre-fight weigh in. McFadden's most defining attribute, which was to separate him from the strong field of underclassmen backs and make him a top-three lock, is his 4.4 long speed. WEBSITE.WS - Your Internet Address For Life™

The gamebreaker lit up the SEC for three straight seasons, showing next to no weakness while playing against quite possibly the most NFL-like competition college football offers. He held off Felix Jones, who would've topped the depth chart for 100+ other Division I schools, to be a clear-cut starter in all three seasons. However, McFadden's stock, at least in the media's eye, has taken a recent tumble, and his decision to withdraw from the forty wouldn't help. You can bet that NFL teams would frown upon this approach.

Four With Much At Stake

1. Texas WR Limas Sweed

Sweed missed seven games in 2007 after undergoing wrist surgery. He was forced to drop out of the Senior Bowl after aggravating the injury. The early word is that Sweed may not be able to take part in the Combine's receiving drills, but he should have no problems running the forty. As with all big wideouts (Sweed is 6'4/212), speed is a question mark. If he doesn't run, it won't look good.

2. West Virginia RB Steve Slaton

Slaton was a human highlight reel early in his college career, but finished up with an injury plagued junior year before declaring for the NFL. He seemed to lack the burst in 2007 that he showed as a freshman. In a draft rich with scatbacks, the 5'10/190-pounder may need to do something special just to be taken on the first day.

3. Oklahoma State WR Adarius Bowman

Bowman couldn't catch a cold at the Senior Bowl, but no one can question his physical skills. The 6'3/220-pound Andre Johnson lookalike must atone for the drops with a confident Combine week. Bowman is a certain first-day draft pick and future NFL starter when things are going well.

4. Virginia DE Chris Long

Long could probably turn in an average week and still be a top five selection. His game is so nasty and relentless, his ability to be an every-down end so valuable, and lineage as Howie's son so reassuring that each team (if any) that passes on Long will likely second guess the decision at some point. Long played end in UVA's 3-4 under Al Groh, a Bill Parcells disciple. However, at 6'4/278 he's a bit undersized for an NFL 30 front. If Long can show the speed, explosiveness, and hip fluidity to be a drop or rush linebacker in the Mike Vrabel or Terrell Suggs mold, he'll be hard for Parcells to pass up. A strong week would make Long the clear favorite to go No. 1.

I Feel the Need

The 40-yard dash is the most publicized portion of the Combine. Here are five players with something to gain from exceptional timing.

1. Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall

With McFadden potentially dropping out, this is Mendenhall's chance to solidify himself among the top two draft-eligible running backs, and possibly lay claim to the premier spot. One reputable analyst is already calling Mendenhall No. 1. The only concerns with his game are his pass protection and long speed, although Mendenhall proved against USC in the Rose Bowl that he can run away from elite defenders. With only one season of film on this mack truck-built back, NFL brass will be intently examining everything Mendenhall does. A time in the low 4.5s could lock him into the top 16 picks. A dash in the 4.4s could make Mendenhall top-ten material.

2. Kansas State WR Jordy Nelson

6'3/215, white, and muscle bound, Nelson resembles former Broncos stud Ed McCaffrey. The proven senior has a chance to be a top-50 pick if he can show 4.4 speed. Even if Nelson runs in the 4.5s, he'll always have this absolute torching of possible first-round Kansas corner Aqib Talib to hang his hat on.

3. Indiana WR James Hardy

Some knocked Sidney Rice for being too slow off the line during the pre-draft process in 2007. Similar questions are being asked about the Big Ten's leading touchdown catcher this year. Hardy will want to prove he's not another Clarence Moore and that he'll beat physical press coverage at the next level. The 6'6/219-pound early entrant certainly won't be hard for evaluators to spot.

4. Rutgers RB Ray Rice

With the back-and-forth surrounding Mendenhall and McFadden, Rice seems to be getting lost in the running back debate. Rice has never been considered a burner, but did show breakaway speed on occasion in the Big East. A 4.47-4.49 forty would be an outstanding feat for Brian Leonard's former understudy and could vault the Frank Gore clone into the top two rounds.

5. Wake Forest WR Kenneth Moore

We know he can catch. Can he run? Moore broke Torry Holt's ACC single-season mark for receptions by hauling in 98 balls as a senior. The 5'11/200-pounder has soft hands and learned to excel on quicker, shorter routes in a weak Demon Deacons passing attack. NFL people will want to see if Moore can catch the rock when it's coming over his shoulder, and if he has the speed to beat cornerbacks deep. If not, he'll still be a nice slot prospect.

The QB Status Quo

Quarterback stock is minimally affected by the Combine's goings on. It's been proven that you can even score a six on the Wonderlic (a 10 score out of 50 is considered literacy) and still be a top-five selection. Like everyone, the QBs will run their forties, but there is other testing available. Last year, Central Missouri State's Toby Korrodi turned in the top MPH read on the radar gun. He didn't have the accuracy to succeed in the pros and is currently out of football, but it at least earned him a shot with the Cardinals in training camp. It wouldn't hurt Colt Brennan to throw a few heaters after having his arm strength ripped at January's Senior Bowl.

Potential Showstoppers

In 2007, current Falcons starting CB Chris Houston (Arkansas) and Titans RB Chris Henry (Arizona) burned up the Combine turf with blistering, sub-4.4 forties. In 2006, Vernon Davis (Maryland) stole the show. Remember Willie Middlebrooks (Minnesota)? It happens every year.

Like Davis, these three players are already top prospects, but have great chances to become more known on the national stage by timing, working out, and interviewing well.

1. Arkansas RB Felix Jones - Jones is already bordering on a high second-round grade despite playing second fiddle to McFadden with the Razorbacks. A big week could send him into the late first-round realm.

2. Michigan WR Mario Manningham - Don't be surprised if Super Mario challenges Houston's Donnie Avery and Cal's DeSean Jackson for the Yamon Figurs award as the Combine's fastest wideout.

3. Ohio State DE/OLB Vernon Gholston - Gholston is reportedly creeping into "top five territory" on one team's draft board. The early entrant can bench 450+ lbs, so look for Gholston to respond with Cardinals strength coach John Lott screaming in his ear.

[Hache Man]

Free Agency Primer: RBs

Unlike linemen, good running backs are easy to find. Fantasy football's favorite sons fall somewhere between linebackers and plankton (kickers) on the NFL food chain. That makes the offseason entertaining to watch, as starting-caliber players routinely trade uniforms. Here's how we see free agency at running back shaking out.


Possible Salary Cap Cuts

The free agent market is a moving target, which could make our list of free agents out of date in a week. Many of the biggest names to change teams in March will be veterans cut loose just before free agency starts. Here are some names on the roster bubble.

Shaun Alexander, Seahawks

This one will sting. Alexander is in denial that the Seahawks would consider asking him to take a paycut, much less cut him. If Joe Montana, Johnny U, and Jerry Rice can be forced to move on, Shaun Alexander can too.

Seattle wants a back who can play every down; Alexander can't. Now he struggles on early downs. Alexander could stick around to share work with a rookie, but his release is more likely.

Rudi Johnson, Bengals

I thought Rudi was a goner after averaging 2.9 yards-per-carry. But Kenny Irons and Chris Perry are both hurt, and it appears the Bengals will give Rudi the summer to impress them. He's still no lock to make the team.

Edgerrin James, Cardinals
arizonacardinals.com
I watched a lot of tape on James, and he's not done yet. He just needs some help. Put him on the Browns and he'd have a season similar to Jamal Lewis, minus the big plays. Edge is no longer a good fantasy threat, but he could be a capable committee back. The Cards need to find a rookie back to split the work with him.

LaMont Jordan, Raiders
oaklandraiders.com
Jordan would be easier to write off if he didn't start last season so well. He's certain to get cut, and should find a decent role elsewhere. He's already 30, but doesn't have a lot of mileage on his legs.

DeShaun Foster, Panthers
carolinapanthers.com
Foster is due $4.5 million from the Panthers, and has put up pedestrian numbers for years. The local writers believe he's going to get cut, but John Fox and GM Marty Hurney believe in Foster. They may convince him to accept a paycut.

Warrick Dunn, Falcons
atlantafalcons.com
The Falcons are near the top of any team needing a running back. Cutting Dunn will be a very unpopular move, but it's either that or a big salary reduction.

Travis Henry, Broncos

Mike Shanahan is eternally restless. Henry may be willing to take less money to stay with the team, but the Broncos may not want him back.

Top 15 Free Agent Runners

1. Marion Barber, Cowboys (Restricted Free Agent) – The Barbarian is the most complete back out there, although Dallas is hesitant to let him carry the ball 300 times. They won't let him get away either. Look for the team to get a long-term deal done before free agency starts. Even if they can't come to a deal quickly, a first-round tender would prevent him leaving. He won't be backing up Julius Jones any longer.

Prediction: Cowboys: Five years, $14 million guaranteed.

2. Michael Turner, Chargers – Meet the next fantasy football star. Turner has the perfect combination of experience (four-year veteran), fresh legs (228 carries), and production (5.5 career yards-per-carry). And he shouldn't cost that much. sandiegochargers.com

We won't know every team searching for a back until all the cuts are made, but Turner should have a few suitors. Browns OC Rob Chudzinski coached Turner while in San Diego, but Cleveland may keep Jamal Lewis. He would fit well in Seattle or Denver if they ditch their starters. For now, Atlanta looks like the best fit. The Burner should find a starting job, making him a top-30 fantasy pick.

Prediction: Falcons: Four years, $13 million guaranteed

3. Jamal Lewis, Browns – After two subpar seasons, Lewis had a shockingly resurgent campaign. He may not look as good away from Cleveland's line, but we can't discount his improved speed and athleticism. His cutbacks and vision were excellent. He improved as the year wore on. Lewis wants a huge payday, but the Browns have leverage with other options. Lewis probably won't get a better deal elsewhere. clevelandbrowns.com

Prediction: Browns, Two years, $13 million

4. Julius Jones, Cowboys – Jones burst on the scene as a rookie, but his career stalled because of poor vision and poor receiving ability. He lost confidence by the end of 2007 and has average instincts. Still, Jones has put enough solid tape out there as a starter. A second team will hope he develops late like his brother. So let's have him follow in Thomas' footsteps.

Prediction: Bears, $6 million guaranteed

5. Derrick Ward, Giants - Ward is injury prone, but he flashed a complete game as a starter in 2007. For a cheap price, he could give a team a backup with power, speed, and receiving ability. The Giants want to keep him, but a good third back is a luxury. His agent should see what's out there first.
NY Giants
Prediction: Seahawks, $5 million guaranteed

6. Mewelde Moore, Vikings - This versatile pro has 4.9 yards-per-carry career average and is excellent in the passing and return game. He can do a little bit of everything, and seems to be a great fit for a West Coast scheme. I'm contractually obligated to mention he went to Tulane. minnesotavikings.com

Prediction: Bucs, $3 million guaranteed

7. Ron Dayne, Texans - Ronnie gets no love, but he's proven that he can close out a season out by eating some carries. He's a serviceable backup.

Prediction: Texans, $2 million

8. Michael Pittman, Bucs - The Godfather of third-down backs should get another contract, but he's nearing the finish line. Tampabaybuccaneers.com

Prediction: 49ers, $2 million

10. Musa Smith, Ravens - Finally freed, Musa put up 83 yards and a score in a Week 17 start. Some team could see starter potential, but a return to Baltimore is more likely. baltimoreravens.com

Prediction: Ravens, $2 million

11. Chris Brown, Titans - Brown remained a free agent until June last year, averaged 4.6 yards-per-carry, but somehow didn't rehab his value. He fades as the year goes along and could have trouble finding a job. tennesseetitans.com

12. Aaron Stecker, Saints - This year's Billy Volek earned himself another season in a crowded Saints backfield. A return to Tampa is another possibility.

Prediction: Saints, $1.5 million

13. T.J. Duckett, Lions - At risk of falling out the league, Duckett impressed with a nice December run. He should get a job as a short-yardage specialist somewhere. detroitlions.com

Prediction: Panthers, $1 million

14. Jesse Chatman, Dolphins - He looked like a pro when given the chance, getting 128 carries in his first action in three years. Chatman won't get many job offers, but his old coach Cam Cameron should bring him to camp. miamidolphins.com

Prediction: Ravens, $1 million

15. Tatum Bell, Lions - If Mike Shanahan and Mike Martz couldn't make him look good, no one will. detroitlions.com

Prediction: Texans, $2 million

The Rest (In no particular order)

Michael Bennett, Bucs - Just about out of chances

Vernand Morency, Packers (restricted) - Should get a tender offer, but he's probably fighting for a roster spot. greenbaypackers.com

Maurice Hicks, 49ers - Does enough things to get a job somewhere.

LaBrandon Toefield, Jaguars - 23 carries over the last two seasons.
jacksonvillejaguars.com
Samkon Gado, Dolphins - A great waiver pickup in 2005, but running out of chances. miamidolphins.com

Artose Pinner, Saints - First player in NFL history to have exactly five carries for 46 yards for two teams in same season. That's worth something!

Travis Minor, Rams- Once in the worst committee in NFL history with Leonard Henry and Lamar Gordon. Now I'm just showing off

[Hache Man]

Free Agency Primer: Front 7
Three more players (Jordan Gross, Dallas Clark, and Terrell Suggs) were officially franchise tagged Tuesday, further shrinking the pool of elite free agents who'll be available on February 29. Nnamdi Asomugha and Albert Haynesworth will get the tender on Wednesday. Still, plenty of quality defenders are hitting the market. Let's have a look.

Unrestricted Free Agent Linebackers

Franchised: Karlos Dansby (Cardinals), Suggs (Ravens)

1. OLB Lance Briggs (Bears) - The quintessential 4-3 weak-side 'backer. The Bears are making one last push, but it'll be worth it for Briggs to see what's out there. He should be the NFL's richest linebacker by early March.

Prediction: Redskins - 7 years, $63 million ($21 million guaranteed)

2. OLB Calvin Pace (Cardinals) - Had 5.5 sacks on the strong side last year. A 2003 first-round pick and college end, Pace resurrected his career as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He's 27 and athletic enough to rush at 272 pounds with his hand up. arizonacardinals.com

Prediction: Jets - 5 years, $28 million ($10 million guaranteed)

3. ILB Zach Thomas (Dolphins) - Carries injury baggage (migraines, concussions), but still effective from sideline to sideline and a legitimate run stopper. Going on 35, Thomas is only a two-down linebacker any longer, but will want to start on a good team. miamidolphins.com

Prediction: Saints - 2 years, $9 million ($4 million guaranteed)

4. OLB Kawika Mitchell (Giants) - Flourished on the weak side in '07 after playing MLB for the Chiefs. Mitchell should stay outside, but brings added versatility. He is athletic and well built at 6'1/253. NY Giants

Prediction: Giants - 3 years, $18 million ($7 million guaranteed)

5. OLB Clark Haggans (Steelers) - Weak side rush linebacker is declining, but understands the zone blitz and can still lay some wood. Haggans could help a team transitioning to the 3-4 with young players.

Prediction: Bengals - 3 years, $13 million ($4 million guaranteed)

6. OLB Victor Hobson (Jets) - 6'0/252-pound 'tweener took a big step back last year after a 100-tackle, six-sack campaign in 2006. newyorkjets.com
7. OLB Landon Johnson (Bengals) - Young (26), highly productive, and versatile but not a traditional run stuffer.
8. OLB Brandon Chillar (Rams) - SAM linebacker not a big playmaker, but smart, only 25, and coming off a career best year.
9. OLB Demorrio Williams (Falcons) - Has intriguing ball skills, athleticism, but nearly lost job on the weak side to day-two pick Stephen Nicholas last year. atlantafalcons.com
10. ILB Dan Morgan (Panthers) - Pro Bowl talent isn't over the hill, but coming off Achilles surgery and has a history of concussions. He visited the Saints Tuesday. carolinapanthers.com

Others of note: ILB Al Wilson (Broncos), OLB Chaun Thompson (Browns), OLB Boss Bailey (Lions), ILB Dontarrious Thomas (Vikings), OLB Reggie Torbor (Giants), ILB Teddy Lehman (Lions), OLB Keyaron Fox (Chiefs), ILB Mark Simoneau (Saints), ILB Tedy Bruschi (Patriots), ILB Derek Smith (49ers), OLB Danny Clark (Texans), OLB Caleb Miller (Bengals), ILB Junior Seau (Patriots)

Restricted Free Agent Linebackers

1. OLB Michael Boley (Falcons) - New Falcons' management smartly views Boley as a building block. He'll get the first-round ($2.017 million) tender.
2. ILB Channing Crowder (Dolphins) - Should succeed Zach Thomas as Miami's "MIKE" linebacker, but will need at least the second-round tag ($1.417 million).
3. OLB Darryl Blackstock (Cardinals) - Low tender ($927,000) would likely keep this disappointing former third-round pick around for one more year.
4. OLB Heath Farwell (Vikings) - Relentless special teamer lacks size, speed to be realistic long-term answer on the weak side. minnesotavikings.com
5. ILB Adam Seward (Panthers) - Utility linebacker with little upside.



Unrestricted Free Agent Defensive Linemen

Franchised: Jared Allen (Chiefs)
Will Be Franchised: Albert Haynesworth (Titans)

1. DE Justin Smith (Bengals) - Every-down 4-3 end had only two sacks in 2007 while wearing franchise tag. Still, players of Smith's caliber are rare, and his numbers weren't for lack of effort. Smith had 78 tackles, just three shy of his career high. He's a Missouri native and his agent is based in St. Louis.

Prediction: Rams - 6 years, $50 million ($18 million guaranteed)

2. DT