Stats 101: Sizemore not stealing

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John Franco / SportsBlurb.com Posted: 4 hours ago

Last year, the Indians' Grady Sizemore stole 22 bases as part of a breakout 20/20 season that made him almost as attractive to fantasy players as it did to the teenage girls who pack Jacobs Field hoping to get a glimpse of their heartthrob. (In case you missed it, Sizemore is well on his way to becoming the Midwestern Derek Jeter.) This year, Grady has swiped just three bases in his first 34 games, leaving his owners wondering when they'll start to see the speed that they paid for before the season started. Sizemore isn't the only Indian who isn't running – the team ranks 28th in stolen bases, and they are tied with the Red Sox for 27th in stolen base attempts. In this week's column, I will be looking at the teams that are running, and the teams that are not running. After all, you can almost always count on stolen bases from someone like Juan Pierre, but if you have players on your roster who play for running teams, you might get more stolen bases than you paid for (perhaps something like the nine stolen bases that Adrian Beltre has produced so far.) Specifically, I will be looking at the percentage of times that a team attempts to steal a base – obviously a difficult statistic to calculate, but one that can be estimated. To find this number, you will need to find the raw number of stolen base attempts per team – this one is very simple, just stolen bases plus caught stealing. For our purposes, it's more important that the team try to steal than actually succeeding. Then you'll want to divide the number of attempts by the team's estimated opportunities, defined as (singles + walks + HBP); if you don't know how to find singles, that one is also easy: (hits – doubles – triples – home runs.) Using the Indians as an example, they have 13 stolen base attempts, 369 hits, 77 doubles, 7 triples, 40 home runs, 127 walks and 13 hit batsmen, or ((13/(369-77-7-40+127+13). This works out to 0.03, which means the Indians have attempted to steal a base three percent of the time that they have had a chance to run. Incidentally, that three percent steal rate is the lowest in the major leagues. Part of the reason for that is the large denominator – Cleveland has the second highest on-base percentage in the major leagues – but a larger factor is that the Indians just aren't running much. The Oakland A's have also attempted to steal just three percent of the time, something that isn't really surprising given GM Billy Beane's Moneyball approach. Texas (4%), Boston (4%) and Pittsburgh (5%) round out the bottom five teams that are not even trying to steal. The Red Sox may improve when Coco Crisp returns, but fantasy owners expecting double-digit steals from Brad Wilkerson may want to reconsider, and Jason Bay owners may have to wait another year for their 30/30 dreams to come true. This season, the highest teams in terms of attempt rate have not been very prolific offensive teams. The top three teams ranked by stolen base attempts as a percentage of times on base are all ranked in the bottom third in runs scored, and four out of the five highest teams in stolen base attempts, the Mariners' offense is "best" with a rank of 19th in runs scored. While these teams may not attempt the most stolen bases, they are attempting to steal the most often because they have relatively fewer runners available to steal with. There are some teams that are attempting to steal bases more frequently but doing so at a lower percentage – the Dodgers have attempted 41 stolen bases, but their percentage (12%) is lower than the Cubs, who have attempted 37 stolen bases for an attempt rate of 13%. What does all of this mean for fantasy players? The Angels lead the major leagues with an attempt rate of 15 percent, and given their struggles on offense (26th in runs scored), they are likely to keep running. Chone Figgins and Orlando Cabrera should continue to rack up the steals, and unexpected sources like Maicer Izturis may continue to appear out of nowhere. The Marlins, who need to run since they rank 27th in runs scored, will continue turning Hanley Ramirez loose on the bases, and the rest of their players could also steal more bases than expected. Miguel Cabrera, who stole just one base last year, has already swiped three bases, and could reach double digits if the Marlins keep up this pace. Of course, just because you're a bad offensive team doesn't automatically mean that you'll start stealing bases to make up the difference. The Pirates fired Lloyd McClendon during the 2005 season, but new manager Jim Tracy has picked up right where McClendon left off in terms of stealing bases. The Pirates have attempted to steal with just five percent of their runners, though their success rate of 80 percent does rate higher than the McClendon era. Jason Bay and Chris Duffy lead the Pirates with three steals each, and infielders Jack Wilson and Jose Castillo have each stolen a pair of bases. Therefore, while the Pirates may not have any player steal 20 bases, they could end up with most of their team between seven and 15 stolen bases, a nice boost for fantasy owners. Aside from the Dodgers, the Reds are the only team to post a double-digit attempt rate and rank in the top half of the major leagues in runs scored. Cincinnati has gotten an amazing 11 steals (in 12 attempts) from Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Freel and Brandon Phillips have combined for 13 steals in 17 attempts. Aside from those three players, the Reds have been as slow-footed as ever, which could mean that manager Jerry Narron would like to be more aggressive, but he doesn't have the personnel to do it. As he becomes more comfortable with players like Edwin Encarnacion and Chris Denorfia, those players could start to benefit from his aggressiveness. John Franco is a columnist for SportsBlurb.com. Feedback can be sent to johnfranco@sportsblurb.com.