Week 7 Hitting Planner

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May 13, 2006 David Gonos Senior Fantasy Writer Tell David your opinion

The Fantasy Baseball Hitting Planner is the essential guide to setting your lineup for the upcoming week. Every Saturday, we provide you with favorable hitting matchups for teams, as well as which hitters are hot or not. The Pitching Planner, complete with upcoming two-start pitchers, will be posted on Sunday.
Projections are for May 15-May 21 games. All stats are through Friday's games.

This week's matchups
AL early	NL early	Int-LG late	Int-LG late
MIN@DET	FLA@ATL	CHC@CHW	MIN@MIL
BOS@BAL	SF@HOU	STL@KC	BAL@WAS
TEX@NYY	LAD@COL	SD@SEA	TOR@COL
KC@CLE	SD@ARI	PIT@CLE	BOS@PHI
CHW@TB	CIN@PIT	CIN@DET	TEX@HOU
TOR@LAA	PHI@MIL	NYY@NYM	LAA@LAD
SEA@OAK	WAS@CHC	FLA@TB	SF@OAK
	NYM@STL		ATL@ARI
The following teams play seven games this week: Minnesota, Chicago White Sox, Texas, N.Y. Yankees, Kansas City, Cleveland, Florida and Atlanta.
The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins wrap up a four-game series on Monday.
Italics denotes that Atlanta plays at Arizona as the only late NL game this week.
The following teams are playing four-game series: FLA@ATL, TEX@NYY and KC@CLE.

Taking into account all games with at least a 50 percent chance of precipitation according to the Weather.com, the following might be threatened by poor weather: Kansas City at Cleveland (60 percent chance), Texas at N.Y. Yankees (60) on Monday; Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (50), Kansas City at Cleveland (50), Minnesota at Detroit (50), Texas at N.Y. Yankees (50) on Tuesday; Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (60), N.Y. Yankees at N.Y. Mets (60), Boston at Philadelphia (60) on Saturday; Cincinnati at Detroit (60), Pittsburgh at Cleveland (60), Boston at Philadelphia (60) and N.Y. Yankees at N.Y. Mets (60) on Sunday.

B E S T H I T T I N G S C H E D U L E
CLEVELAND INDIANS
MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN
KC Affeldt	KC Elarton	KC Hernandez	KC Redman	PIT Duke	PIT Snell	PIT Maholm
' 06 Stadium stats: Jacobs Field, 12.1 RPG (1st).
KC pitching: 5.52 ERA overall (29th), 5.74 Road ERA (27th), 4.65 May ERA (19th).
PIT pitching: 4.87 ERA overall (22nd), 4.76 Road ERA (16th), 3.80 May ERA (5th).
The Indians get seven home games -- four against the worst team in the AL and three against one of the second-worst in the NL. Also, no team scores more runs at home on average than the Indians, who post 6.7 RPG at the Jake.

Five other favorable hitter schedules

1. Houston Astros -- vs. SF (3), vs. TEX (3)
   • The Giants have a 5.17 staff ERA and the Astros are averaging 5.6 RPG at home, good for eighth in the majors.
2. Washington Nationals -- at CHC (3), vs. BAL (3)
   • The Cubs' staff currently scares no one and Washington hosts the worst pitching team in the majors during the weekend.
3. Boston Red Sox -- at BAL (3), at PHI (3)
   • The Orioles currently own the worst pitching staff in the majors (5.70 ERA) and Citizens Bank Park is allowing 5.3 RPG to visitors (10th in the majors).
4. Colorado Rockies -- vs. LAD (3), vs. TOR (3)
   • The Rockies get six games at Coors Field -- and their late set is against a Blue Jays team that has the worst road pitching staff in the majors (6.63 ERA).
5. Detroit Tigers -- vs. MIN (3), vs. CIN (3)
   • The Tigers get six home games this week and three are against a disappointing Twins staff that ranks third-to-last in ERA (5.50).

H O T H I T T E R S

We aren't suggesting you start these players no matter what, but you might consider starting them over struggling stars. The following eight hitters have extremely favorable matchups and/or are in the midst of hot streaks:

Rod Barajas, C, Texas: After a horrible start to the season, Barajas is coming around. He has hit safely in 15 of his past 19 games and this week's opposition signals more success ahead: Shawn Chacon (.429, 1 HR), Jaret Wright (.500) and Roy Oswalt (.417, 1 HR).

Trot Nixon, OF, Boston: While he hasn't homered since April 7, Nixon has been steady at the plate. As a matter of fact, he has hit safely in nine of 10 games in May and his upcoming matchups are favorable: Rodrigo Lopez (.354, 1 HR), Bruce Chen (.500), Erik Bedard (.600), Jon Lieber (..500) and Brett Myers (.333).

Nomar Garciaparra, 1B/SS/3B, L.A. Dodgers: The oft-injured slugger has been red hot since returning from the disabled list. Since he came back on April 22, only three hitters have outproduced him in Head-to-Head leagues (Albert Pujols, Jason Giambi and Nick Swisher).

Mike Lowell, 3B, Boston: In what has become a bounce-back season, Lowell will face some pitchers he has seen success against in the past: Rodrigo Lopez (.500), Bruce Chen (.313) and Jon Lieber (.286, 3 HR).

Magglio Ordonez, OF, Detroit: Another early candidate for Comeback Player of the Year, Maggs has 10 homers and 25 RBI on the year. He is hitting .360 (9-for-25) with four homers and eight RBI in his past six games. He is also lined up against some pitchers he already owns: Kyle Lohse (.352, 4 HR), Johan Santana (.409, 3 HR) and Brad Radke (.410, 2 HR).

Jeff Kent, 2B, L.A. Dodgers: After a super slow start to the season, Kent has now hit three of his four homers this year in his past four games with 10 RBI in his past five. And a couple of his opposing pitchers this week aren't looking forward to seeing him: Josh Fogg (.429, 4 HR) and Jason Jennings (.429, 3 HR).

Ronnie Belliard, 2B, Cleveland: His batting average is down 20 points from last year and his power has been nonexistent this season. But his upcoming matchups should help boost his average some: Jeremy Affeldt (.417, 1 HR), Scott Elarton (.600, 1 HR); Runelvys Hernandez (.500) and Mark Redman (.444).

Brad Wilkerson, OF, Texas: Since dropping from leadoff all the way down to seventh in the Rangers' batting order, Wilkerson is hitting .307 (27-for-88) with three homers and eight RBI. His upcoming pitching matchups are in his favor also: Mike Mussina (.500), Chacon (.438, 2 HR), Chien-Ming Wang (.500) and Roy Oswalt (.385).

W O R S T H I T T I N G S C H E D U L E
N.Y. METS
MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN
--	@STL Suppan	@STL Mulder	@STL Marquis	NYY Johnson	NYY Mussina	NYY Chacon
' 06 Stadium stats: Busch Stadium, 8.7 RPG (25th); Shea Stadium, 9.1 RPG (21st).
STL pitching: 3.51 ERA overall (2nd), 2.91 Home ERA (1st), 3.87 May ERA (7th).
NYY pitching: 3.79 ERA overall (4th), 3.92 Road ERA (7th), 4.11 May ERA (11th).
The Mets have been an average scoring offense this month and they'll go up against the top NL staff and the second-best AL staff.

Five other below-average hitter schedules

1. Minnesota Twins -- vs. CHW (1), at DET (3), at MIL (3)
   • Even with seven games on their docket, it's tough to start all of your Twins when they have one game against the World Champs, as well as six road games against the top pitching staff in the majors (DET) and a top-five staff at home (MIL).
2. Cincinnati Reds -- at PIT (3), at DET (3)
   • Teams visiting Comerica Park are scoring only 3.7 RPG on average and the Reds get six games away from the Great American Ballpark.
3. Texas Rangers -- at NYY (4), at HOU (3)
   • Call this the Clemens sweepstakes series -- the Rangers have seven road games this week against two strong pitching staffs.
4. San Diego Padres -- at ARI (3), at SEA (3)
   • Six road games for the Padres is a tough task already, then add the fact they'll face two surprising pitching staffs that are among the top half of the majors in both home ERA and May ERA.
5. Seattle Mariners -- at OAK (3), vs. SD (3)
   • The Mariners have a tough time scoring on the road and the Padres are red hot on the mound (11-1, 2.73 ERA in their past 12 games).

C O L D H I T T E R S

We aren't suggesting you sit anyone, but take a look at your roster to see if you have a better alternative. The following eight hitters have poor matchups and/or are in the midst of cold streaks:

Morgan Ensberg, 3B, Houston: After a torrid start to the year, Ensberg has cooled off considerably. Since April 24, he is hitting just .179 (12-for-6) with two homers and seven RBI.

Richie Sexson, 1B, Seattle: His upcoming pitching matchups aren't favorable: Joe Blanton (.154, 1 HR), Kirk Saarloos (.214) and Barry Zito (.200, 1 HR). Since April 20, he is hitting .141 (10-for-71) with only one homer and three RBI.

Clint Barmes, SS, Colorado: He hasn't had the start to '06 like he had in '05. Since April 29, he is hitting just .079 (3-for-38) with no homers, four RBI and three runs scored.

Carlos Beltran, OF, N.Y. Mets: Beltran faces some matchups this week that he hasn't had much success against: Jeff Suppan (.250), Mark Mulder (.170) and Jason Marquis (.111). Actually, he's hitting only .237 with two homers in 34 games against the Cardinals.

Miguel Tejada, SS, Baltimore: Tejada entered May with a .422 batting average, but it has since dropped 70 points. This month, he's hitting .186 (8-for-43) with three homers and eight RBI.

Casey Blake, 3B, Cleveland: Blake has hit safely in every game this month, with four homers and eight RBI, but he'll have a tough time against his upcoming matchups: Affeldt (.286, 1 HR) and Elarton (.200, 1 HR); and he's hitless against Hernandez and Redman.

Chad Tracy, 3B, Arizona: He's been hot at the plate, but he's hitless lifetime against Chan Ho Park, John Thomson and Kyle Davies while also hitting just .130 against Jake Peavy and .235 against Woody Williams.

Raul Ibanez, OF, Seattle: Ibanez hit only .224 against Oakland and .200 against San Diego last season.

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