Looking behind the numbers

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May 16, 2006 David Gonos Senior Fantasy Writer Tell David your opinion

There is no other sport that lends itself to the numerical analysis enjoyed by millions of Fantasy players like baseball.
With that said, here's a quick look at some numbers to help you get through the middle months of Fantasy play.
.173 -- The batting average for the Orioles, before Monday's game, with Brian Roberts (groin) sidelined the past 15 games. With Roberts in the lineup? Baltimore was hitting .333. Brandon Fahey has actually hit well in his place, but this just proves that Roberts' presence does so much more for the Orioles offensively. When he returns (possibly Friday at Washington), expect the rest of the Orioles lineup to pick it up again.
.308 -- What Brad Wilkerson is hitting since being dropped from the leadoff spot down to the seventh spot in the Texas order. He has become useful again in all Fantasy formats after the percentage of leagues that started him dropped to 34.
.475 -- What Mark Loretta is hitting since May 4 (19-for-40) bringing his poor .218 batting average all the way up to .278 through Monday. Once Coco Crisp (finger, kidney stones) returns to the leadoff position ahead of Loretta in late May, the second baseman's numbers should climb even further.
.814 -- That's the career winning percentage for Pedro Martinez in the month of April, which is among the active leaders among starters. Unfortunately, he tails off toward the end of the season, with a .654 win percentage in August and a .555 win percentage in September. He was 3-5 in those two months in '05 and 5-5 in '04. Consider moving him just after the All-Star break to get the most for your money.

Jose Valverde has 11 saves on the season for Arizona. (Getty Images)

1 -- The percentage of CBS SportsLine leagues that have Sammy Sosa owned on a Fantasy roster.
1.16 -- That's how much Baltimore's staff ERA has climbed from last year (4.56) to this year (5.72) with pitching wizard Leo Mazzone as their new pitching coach. Remember this, though: Four of his five starters were in the World Baseball Classic this spring, so he wasn't able to completely train them the way he would have liked.
3 -- The number of hitters that have scored more Head-to-Head Fantasy points than Alex Rios' 84 since April 26. In that span, he's hitting .366 (26-for-71) with three HRs, 11 RBI, 14 runs and four SBs.
9 -- The number of bases on balls Barry Bonds has earned since he hit home run No. 713 on May 7. While he's hitting poorly this month (.154), opposing teams are catching flak for walking him rather than going after him. The thing you have to realize is that no pitcher wants to have his name become the answer to a trivia question on the CBS SportsLine Trivia Tower. Example: "Which player gave up Bonds' 714th homer?"
9.06 -- Randy Johnson's run support from the Yankees lineup. There are only two other pitchers with better run support than the Big Unit (Paul Byrd and Gustavo Chacin) and Johnson's ERA is a painful 5.13. Even more painful are the 15 walks he has already issued, which is already one third of the number of batters he walked in each of the past two seasons. His K/9 is 6.15, which is well below his career numbers of 10.88 or even last season's 8.42. With a 3-3 record and a 6.89 ERA over his past six starts, it's tough to send him out there every week as your No. 1 Fantasy starter. There appears to be no injury, but the Yankees are looking for answers. How about -- he's 42 years old? In Rotisserie leagues, target an opposing owner that needs strikeouts badly and see if you can pilfer some speed or power for him -- especially in mixed leagues.
9.63 -- The number of plate appearances that Toronto's Reed Johnson averages per beaning. Compared to Troy Glaus' AB/HR ratio of 10.92, that's impressive. He's closing in on coach Ernie Pantuso's major league record. This has no Fantasy value per se, except if you are in a 6x6 Rotisserie league and the sixth hitting category is HBP.
10 -- Number of stolen bases for Hanley Ramirez already. Instead of his stats drooping after the first month of the season, he's actually hitting better in May with a .379 average and .419 on-base percentage. As the Baby Fish mature throughout the season, their leadoff hitter will improve, including his base-stealing numbers, as he learns pitcher's moves to first. He stole 26 bases at Double-A Portland last year, but as the Marlins' leadoff hitter, he should surpass that number easily in '06 for a team that needs to move station to station.
11 -- The number of trips to the DL for Josh Beckett over the past four seasons. After what was easily his best start of the season Monday at Baltimore, the Boston Globe is reporting that NESN cameras were showing pitching coach Al Nipper checking out the tip of Beckett's middle finger. That's the same finger that has blistered and haunted him over the past few seasons. Manager Terry Francona said they were looking at some mud that got on his finger, but Beckett's previous owners are taking a peek at the availability of Abe Alvarez in their league, as well as Boston's hotshot prospect Jon Lester as a possible future replacement. Beckett was pulled in the blowout after just 80 pitches, but he allowed only one run on a solo homer and two hits total for his fifth win.
12 -- Number of e-mails I received saying I'm an idiot for saying that Javier Vazquez is about to suffer a letdown because of several factors. He has received so much run support that it changes how a pitcher goes after a lineup. Obviously, he had a low ERA and his wins are making him look like an AL Cy Young candidate, but my point was that his K/9 IP, as well as his control numbers (walks and K/bb), were off from what he was putting up in the past three Aprils. Those are indicators that trouble could be ahead. He then went out and got pounded Saturday for seven runs in his shortest outing of the season.
13 -- Number of e-mails I'll receive saying I'm an idiot after Vazquez puts up his next great start. The extra one I'll send to myself.
14.7 -- The Tigers' major league-low average number of pitches thrown per inning by their starters. By working efficiently, their staff can work deeper into games, saving their bullpen from overuse. It also explains why both Jeremy Bonderman and Kenny Rogers are among the top 12 major league pitchers in innings per start.
25 -- The average age for the Marlins' rotation now that Ricky Nolasco (23) and Josh Johnson (22) are among their starters, joining Brian Moehler, (34) Scott Olsen (22) and Dontrelle Willis (24). Just a guess here, but the middle relievers are probably going to get a ton of innings over the next few months.
26 -- The number of teams that have scored more runs this season than the Devil Rays. Entering this year, Tampa Bay was thought to have one of the best offenses in the AL, but injuries (Rocco Baldelli, Jorge Cantu, Aubrey Huff and Julio Lugo), disappointments ( Joey Gathright) and indiscretions (Delmon Young) have crippled the potential of this lineup. But don't despair. Carl Crawford gets better as the season matures and their lineup is nearly healthy again. Baldelli (hamstring) is within a week or two from playing in his first major league game since 2004 and Huff is famous for starting slow before heating up.
31 -- The number of bases stolen on Victor Martinez this season. Don't expect him to be replaced though -- he's kinda good at the plate.
33 -- The number of earned runs allowed by Twins starter Kyle Lohse in seven starts (8.33 ERA). In the classic case of "darned-if-you-do and darned-if-you-don't," Lohse could be moved in a trade if he starts to perform well or he'll be bumped to the bullpen ala Carlos Silva if he continues to pitch poorly. The item to note here is that prospect Boof Bonser would likely be the pitcher tabbed next for the rotation following the example set by Francisco Liriano. In eight starts at Triple-A Rochester, Bonser has a 2.01 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 49 1/3 innings. He was, in fact, one of the key pieces to the trade that sent A.J. Pierzynski to San Francisco a few seasons ago.
46 -- According to Indians' pitching coach Carl Willis, that's how many fastballs were thrown by C.C. Sabathia in his previous 112-pitch start -- a 2-1 loss to Detroit Friday. He's certainly starting to pitch more than throw and that should help his stats, his career and his health over the rest of the season.
47 -- The number of strikeouts that Bonderman currently has, which ranks him fifth in the AL. He prefers to throw groundball-inducing pitches on the first pitch, yet here he is with a good number of strikeouts. And only Roy Halladay (13.5) averages fewer pitches per inning than Bonderman (13.7).
88 -- The combined number of days that both Cubs pitchers Mark Prior and Kerry Wood have been on the disabled list this season. Wood is expected to end his string on the shelf Thursday against Washington. The Chicago Tribune is setting Prior's expected return date for June 3 at St. Louis, if his short sessions continue to go well in Mesa, Ariz.
89 -- The number of runs scored by the Padres for the month of May, leading the majors. Shortstop Khalil Greene leads the team in RBI with 29 this year on a team with Brian Giles and Mike Piazza, but Greene's .229 batting average is shadowing his progress in his third season.
126 -- The number of Fantasy points put up in Head-to-Head leagues by Jose Valverde since April 22. His biceps tendinitis appears to be officially behind him and he has re-emerged as one of the top closers in the NL.
204 -- That's how many RBI that reigning NL MVP Albert Pujols is on pace for. Sure, the homers are impressive, but when you look at the fact that he has knocked in 25 percent of the Cardinals' runs this season, you realize that Pujols is on his way to becoming the greatest career Fantasy hitter in the past 30 years -- including Barry Bonds. Oh yeah, and he's only 26 years old.
220 -- Number of player updates from the CBS SportsLine.com Fantasy content staff on Monday. I think you'll agree that our coverage this season has been much improved over the past few years. We regularly hit 300 updates daily now. Not only are we covering what has happened, there are even a number of updates that cover what will happen in any given series or game. As a matter of fact, nearly every player that is owned in at least one percent of all leagues has an update for the month of May, unless he's injured and hasn't played in a rehab stint.
235 -- The combined number of career starts for 24-year-old superstar pitchers Jake Peavy (114) and Carlos Zambrano (121). Zambrano should have more starts -- he was born a full day earlier than Peavy in 1981. Neither is off to a great Fantasy start, but Peavy is red hot in May (2-0, 1.29 ERA, 20 Ks) and Zambrano's only fault is that his team is providing only 3.14 runs in support from the struggling Cubbies. Zambrano's value in Head-to-Head leagues takes a hit because of the low number of wins, but Rotisserie owners shouldn't think about moving him unless it's a blockbuster deal.
954 -- Number of pitches Andy Pettitte has already thrown this season, leading all pitchers. Time to be concerned? Maybe not from that number, but his K/BB is a little disturbing at 2.41, so far the lowest number in his past five seasons. Opponents are hitting .290 against him and he hasn't exactly faced some blockbuster offenses -- of Florida, Washington, Arizona, Milwaukee, L.A. Dodgers, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Colorado, only two rank in the top 10 in team batting average. He's coming off a complete-game shutout against the Rockies, so now might be a good time to move one of the best NL pitchers of a year ago.
1900 -- The last year that a pitcher who gave up seven runs in the first inning was still able to get the win before Mark Buehrle did it at Minnesota on Sunday. His ERA would have been 3.66 if all seven runs he allowed in the first inning Sunday were earned. Instead, two errors were the cause for six of those runs (although one of those errors was a throwing error by Buehrle) and his ERA stands at 3.42. Buehrle has given up 32 hits in his past three starts (17 2/3 IP) and that has to be a red flag -- especially when you consider that the Royals and Twins were two of those teams. Buehrle's wins and ERA are why you want him. He's coming off a career season and if you are thinking about trading him, do it now while his last start looks like this: W, 6 IP and 1 ER.
My columns have become too long-winded recently, so I'll add your previous week's feedback e-mails in coming weeks. Thanks for sending 'em -- and keep 'em coming.