Fantasy Football Must Starts

[Hache Man]

Must Starts
It''s Week 3, and that means byes. Larry Johnson owners are scrambling. The Chiefs offense has been disappointing, and he hasn''t scored a touchdown yet, but he''s still averaging nearly 160 yards of total offense a game, which is extraordinary. If he kept that up all season, he would break Marshall Faulk''s record for yards from scrimmage in a season.

LaDainian Tomlinson isn''t on an historic pace, but he also hasn''t had any trouble finding the end zone. His Chargers have been so good (and faced such pitiful competition) that his backup has been a start-worthy fantasy player, although you would have to be drinking a lot of powder blue Kool-Aid to start him – until the next time they play the Raiders, at least. Owners of those Raiders are suffering this week too, but that''s no different from any other week of the season.

Probably the bye that will cause the most consternation is Dallas'', since they have four start-able players on their roster: Julius Jones, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, and Jason Witten.

Note: I make much mention of VOA, Football Outsiders'' flagship stat that evaluates players and teams based not on their total output but on the quality of their play compared to the rest of the NFL''s quality of play in similar situations. Footballoutsiders.com has a much more thorough explanation, and you can also find each team''s VOA rankings there.

QUARTERBACKS

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Matt Hasselbeck vs. N.Y. Giants – The recipe for success by a quarterback is facing a team with a weak defense and a strong offense. That means the offense should be able to move the ball and score points, but that they will also have to keep passing because they won''t blow out the opponent. Early reports say that the Giants are just such an outfit, seventh in offensive VOA and 29th in defensive VOA. Part of that low defensive VOA is a result of playing the Eagles and Colts, the #1 and #3 rated offensive teams (of course part of their high rating is that they''ve played the Giants and Texans ... you see how fast we start to chase our own tail). Seattle has not looked particularly good early, even though they''re 2-0, but Hasselbeck hasn''t suddenly turned into a poor quarterback.

Carson Palmer at Pittsburgh – I know what many of you are thinking: "But Pittsburgh has a great defense!" That they do. But their strength is their run defense (#3 in the league this season) and their pass rush. A team that can withstand the Steelers pass rush should be able to throw on them. The Bengals had the second-best pass protecting line a year ago (those rankings aren''t available for 2006 yet), and though they''re hurting, left tackle Levi Jones and left guard Eric Steinbach will probably play. Given the Bengals'' depth at receiver, Palmer should find enough places to throw the ball even if Chad Johnson is on the bench. The Bengals may not beat the Steelers, but they''ll score more than the Jaguars did against them.

Byron Leftwich at Indianapolis – It''s nice to see that, sometimes, things go back to the way they used to be. The Colts pass defense is the third worst in the league. They let David Carr drop three touchdowns on them. Granted, that was all in garbage time, but garbage time stats count fully in fantasy football. Indianapolis'' strongest weapon on defense is the pass rush, but the Jaguars only gave up one sack to the Steelers last week, and Dwight Freeney may not play.

Sit

Drew Brees vs. Atlanta – Yes, the Saints will be playing with a monstrous high on account of their emotional homecoming on Monday night. But that doesn''t change the fact that Atlanta has the #4 pass defense in the league so far, or that the New Orleans offensive line is mostly spackle and chicken wire. Brees won''t have a lot of time to pass, and Jason Webster and DeAngelo Hall will be champing at the bit to get their respective third interceptions of the year.

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Cincinnati – If he''s lucky, the pounding Roethlisberger took against the Jaguars didn''t slow his recovery from appendectomy surgery. But even if he''s completely healthy, he''s still a risky start against the fifth best pass defense in the league to date.

Kurt Warner vs. St. Louis – The numbers say the Cardinals should run; the Rams are strong against the pass and weak against the run. The question is whether their offensive line will allow them to implement that game plan. They were moderately successful running against the 49ers, who are only slightly better than the Rams in run defense but much worse against the pass, so expect more rushing attempts and fewer passes this week.

RUNNING BACKS

Willis McGahee vs. N.Y. Jets – The Jets rank 30th against the run through two weeks (only partly due to being trampled by the two-headed juggernaut in New England). McGahee is averaging nearly 100 combined yards a game. Expect him to find the end zone for the first time this season.

DeAngelo Williams at Tampa Bay – This is a risky pick, to be sure. It''s hard to tell if Tampa Bay is as bad in run defense as they looked against Atlanta, or if the Falcons are just that good rushing. It''s also hard to guess which Carolina back will get the carries, but Williams has more upside. He had almost three times as many yards as DeShaun Foster on the same number of carries last week. I expect this to be the first of many weeks in which Williams has more carries than Foster.

Edgerrin James vs. St. Louis – So far this season the Rams rank 8th against the pass but just 23rd against the run. That pretty much mirrors the Denver and Seattle offenses, so there''s a chicken-and-egg problem, but it looks like this may be a good week for the Cardinals to try out their shiny new toy (James) over their older, favorite toys (Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin).

Sit

Reuben Droughns vs. Baltimore – He''s hurting, and the Baltimore defense has been stupendously good. Yeah, the Ravens beat what appear so far to be the two worst teams in the league. But they really, really beat them, and they didn''t get all that much help from their middling offense.

Mike/Tatum Bell at New England – I still have no idea who the Broncos are going to play at running back this season. Maybe this is finally the year that they run a backfield committee. In any event, this is not the week to play the guessing game. The 2006 Patriots have gone old school, winning by running the ball and stopping the run. Not only are the Patriots #7 against the run this year, they''re #4 in the league in rushing offense. Denver will have to take the lead to prevent Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney from running out the clock on them, and that means passing early and often.

Ahman Green at Detroit – Football Outsiders numbers say that the New Orleans defense is #9 against the pass and #11 against the run. Yet Brett Favre still threw 55 times last week? The Lions are #2 against the run and #30 against the pass; Drew Bledsoe''s all-time record of 70 pass attempts in a game might be in jeopardy. That doesn''t leave many opportunities to run the ball. And you thought Mike Martz was the mad scientist.

WIDE RECEIVERS

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Antonio Bryant vs. Philadelphia – There''s a phenomenon I''ve observed in fantasy football that I like to call "Jake Delhomme Syndrome." When there''s one wide receiver on a team who''s pretty good, and no other receiver who''s much good at all, that one good receiver will play above his head in terms of fantasy. That''s a big part of the explanation for Muhsin Muhammad, c. 2004, and Steve Smith, c. 2005, as well as Santana Moss last year and Rod Smith ever since Ed McCaffrey retired. Antonio Bryant is that guy in San Francisco. The Eagles have that good offense-poor defense (#1 and #16 in VOA respectively) combination that''s good for opposing quarterbacks. Interceptions don''t count against the receiver, so the Eagles defense will be kinder to Bryant than to Alex Smith.

Santana Moss at Houston – The Redskins offense has been a flightless bird since the preseason, but the Texans defense is like a soaring thermal, and the fleet Moss should rise to the greatest heights. The Texans'' zone defense has been especially atrocious against #1 receivers, hosting the coming out party for Dante'' Stallworth and generally ignoring Marvin Harrison.

Chris Chambers vs. Tennessee – Luckily for Daunte Culpepper and the Dolphins offense, you don''t have to be completely healthy to have success in the passing game against the Titans.

Sit

Keyshawn Johnson at Tampa Bay – Steve Smith looks a lot closer to playing this weekend than he has any week to this point. If he does, Jake Delhomme''s tunnel vision will probably swing entirely in his direction, leaving Keyshawn invisible like a zebra in the herd. Either the Bucs are as terrible as they have looked and Carolina takes a big lead early and runs out the clock, or the Bucs aren''t really so bad and they cover receivers and pressure Delhomme. Either way, Keyshawn doesn''t see a lot of action.

Roddy White and Michael Jenkins at New Orleans – Put these guys in deep freeze until further notice. With Michael Vick running the Texas zone read option and the Falcons winning by 20 points a game (less missed field goals, which will stop with Michael Koenen relinquishing his kicking duties), there aren''t a lot of balls to go to the wide receivers. Also, if you had to pick one of these guys, which one would it be? It''s like receiver by committee, which leaves both guys unstartable.

Jerricho Cotchery at Buffalo – Don''t fall for the hype. The Jets have played the Titans and the Patriots so far, two of the eight worst teams in pass defense VOA. The Bills have a solid pair of corners in Nate Clements and Terrence McGee, and their pass defense this season ranks in the top quarter. When the going gets tough, Chad Pennington will look for Laveranues Coles.

TIGHT ENDS

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L.J. Smith at San Francisco – With Donovan McNabb back, Smith is a solid receiving option again. The 49ers have yet to face a team featuring a strong tight end. But although they''re not the absurdly incompetent contingent trotted out on the field a season ago, these 49ers are still not a real good team.

Sit

Dallas Clark vs. Jacksonville – The Jaguars have one of the league''s top overall defenses – possibly the best, given that they''ve played stiffer competition than the teams ahead of them in VOA, the Ravens and the Chargers. Their linebackers and safeties are overlooked in favor of their defensive line, but they''re extremely solid and were able to shut down Heath Miller, who had run wild on Miami the week before.

KICKERS

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Josh Scobee at Indianapolis – Inconsistent offense + flimsy defense + kicking in a dome = many, potentially long, field goals.

Sit

Phil Dawson vs. Baltimore – A team without a strong offense playing Baltimore is officially the team most likely to get shut out. Kickers do poorly during shutouts.

DEFENSES

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Dolphins vs. Tennessee – The Tennessee pass offense is in shambles right now, which is good for the Dolphins. They''re fairly strong against the run but vulnerable to a good passing game. Only the Bucs have thrown more interceptions than the Titans. Last year a defensive touchdown was scored on about one out of 11 interceptions; this year there have been 64 interceptions already, but just two touchdowns. Interception return touchdowns are essentially random and unpredictable, but interceptions aren''t. The touchdowns are coming, and odds are they will come against teams that throw a lot of interceptions.

Sit

Bengals at Pittsburgh – It''s not supposed to be this way in Week 3, but it is: the Bengals are more dinged up than the Steelers are. That may be all that this game comes down to. Cincinnati is better at defending the pass than the run, but if you''ve ever heard of the Pittsburgh Steelers, you know they like to run the ball