Fantasy Football News

[Hache Man]

Dueling Maurices
Perhaps Shaun Alexander's cracked foot is random. It's even possible the injury gods were ready to strike down upon the 2005 MVP with great vengeance and furious anger after he started his career with 99 straight starts. I think there is a greater force at play here. No, not the famed Madden curse. Alexander is an aging running back coming off back-to-back career highs in carries. He entered the season with an elevated risk of breaking down. That's why Rotoworld ranked him behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson going into the season. Perhaps Alexander wasn't ranked low enough.

Alexander's injury got me thinking about other calcifying running backs. I wouldn't hesitate to sell high on Tiki Barber and Warrick Dunn, two over-30 runners coming off back-to-back career highs in carries. Edgerrin James is another candidate after three straight seasons with 400 touches (including the playoffs).

One way to plan ahead for injuries is to save a roster spot for your running back's "handcuff". Alexander owners who drafted Maurice Morris have options going into a difficult stretch of the season. Since I know Morris is still available in many leagues, this week's Waiver Wired will start with him.

Running Backs

Maurice Morris, Seahawks - I received an email asking whether I'd use the first waiver slot on Maurice Morris or Maurice Jones-Drew. I'd take MoMo. Unlike Drew, Morris is playing for an explosive offense and won't be splitting carries. Seattle was too confident in Alexander's durability and didn't build depth at running back. Quick, try to name another tailback on Seattle's roster. Josh Scobey is the only other one and doesn't have a carry since 2004.

Morris has been in Seattle's system since 2002 and has averaged 4.5 yards-per-carry as a backup. He was serviceable in emergency work in the playoffs last season. Mike Holmgren has always believed in Morris, nearly benching Shaun Alexander for him a few years back. Seattle was quick to re-sign Morris when he was a free agent this off-season.

Don't expect Morris to be a game-breaker, but he can put up 15-20 productive touches on an efficient offense. He's not a great play this week in Chicago, but can be a decent RB2/flex option after Seattle returns from their Week 5 bye. St. Louis, Minnesota, Kansas City, and Oakland are all on the schedule. Alexander may return during that time, but there's no guarantee he'll stay healthy. Seattle just better hope Morris stays healthy. Fullback Mack Strong and a four-receiver set would be tough to win with.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars RB - This kid is thick. As someone who stopped growing in sixth grade, I'm pulling for any NFL player who is listed as 5'7. Drew packs a ridiculous 212 pounds on his small frame, mostly in his midsection. That makes him tougher to tackle than most third-down backs. Just don't forget he's still Fred Taylor's backup.

Drew only had four carries in the first two weeks of the season. Like DeAngelo Williams in Carolina, don't expect consistent week-to-week numbers. Drew's numbers against Indy's soft rush defense will also be tough to repeat. The Jaguars caught Indianapolis off guard by calling draw after draw for big gains while the Colts defended against the deep pass. The element of surprise will be gone. Drew's style of play is also made for artificial turf. He doesn't play on the fake stuff the rest of the season.

The UCLA product never carried the full load in college and the Jaguars won't ask him too. Even if Fred Taylor were hurt, I suspect LaBrandon Toefield and possibly Derrick Wimbush would split carries with Drew. That makes him a solid RB 4/5 for your fantasy bench, but not someone to consider starting. If you have the choice, take Morris.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Ron Dayne, Texans RB - Another Waiver Wired, another Ron Dayne mention. We should be his agent. While the Houston backfield looks unsettled on the surface, Dayne had 14 of 15 carries given to running backs in Week 3. He averaged over four yards per carry and will remain the starter. I know he's available in a lot of leagues out there. If you miss out on Morris this week, Dayne is a fine alternative.

Recommendation:Should be owned in all leagues

Michael Robinson, 49ers - We have to give San Francisco credit for drafting Frank Gore and Robinson, two mid-round picks many draftniks thought were reaches. Robinson is making a rare conversion from college quarterback to tailback, but he's adapted quickly. The 226-pounder was a standout in training camp and has passed Maurice Hicks on the San Francisco depth chart.

Robinson has versatility because he can line up as a wideout and may steal goal-line carries. He's only going to have real value, however, if Gore is hurt. Hicks actually had more total yards in Week 3 and the two might split snaps if Gore is out. Robinson is worth a roster spot in most 12-team leagues for Gore owners. He's worth picking up in all deep leagues because of Gore's lengthy injury history in college.

Recommendation:Worth owning in 12-team leagues

Chris Perry, Bengals - The Bengals offense is actually going to get better. Chris Perry is expected to come off the physically-unable-to-perform list in a few weeks with no medical restrictions. Because of the offense around him, I believe Perry is the best third-down back in football when healthy. Rudi Johnson has been durable throughout his career, but Perry would be an every-week starter if Rudi gets hurt. If Perry is on your waiver wire, I'd rather stash him than pick up Maurice Jones-Drew.

Recommendation: Worth owning in all leagues

Mike Bell, Broncos - Tatum Bell has taken over as the primary running back in Denver, causing some Mike Bell owners to panic and drop the undrafted rookie. Denver's primary backup is still worth plenty in 12-team leagues, especially because Tatum has a history of wearing down late in the season. Buy low if you can.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Kevin Faulk, Patriots - Corey Dillon is already struggling with injuries. If Dillon keeps missing time, Faulk may earn 5+ carries and a handful of catches every week, often lining up as a wideout. In a pinch, he could put up double-digit fantasy points in PPR leagues if you are ravaged by bye weeks or injuries.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Leon Washington, Jets - Washington is a younger, more explosive version of Faulk. He won't escape a RBBC situation in New York, but his value could approximate Kevan Barlow's by midseason. He's worth owning in deep leagues.

Recommendation: Worth owning in deep leagues

Jason Wright, Browns - It was a huge surprise to see Wright get almost all the carries in Cleveland's loss to Baltimore. Jerome Harrison will be used on passing downs, but Wright will fill the Reuben Droughns/William Green three yards and a cloud of dust role. Wright is a plodder with a career 2.2 yards-per-average. With Droughns likely to return to action this week, stay away from Wright.

Recommendation: Stay away

Quarterbacks

Editor's Note:The news that Kurt Warner will start in Week 4 came after we posted this column. For the fantasy impact of that news, click here. The original Leinart write-up remains below.

Matt Leinart, Cardinals - Well, that didn't take long. Kurt Warner looked his age the past few weeks after taking some big hits. In Week 3 against St. Louis, he looked alternately brilliant and confused, once throwing directly to his opponent. Perhaps his chronic hand injuries were flaring up or he was concussed because Warner had a dazed looked in his eyes. Maybe he was just dreading going home to Brenda.

Warner owners should wait to see if Leinart's rise to starter was injury-related. before dropping him. Dennis Green has the quickest trigger with quarterbacks this side of Jon Gruden and could possibly turn back to Warner. It doesn't make sense, though. The veterans in Arizona reportedly want Leinart behind center, which is in direct contrast to how most rookie signal-callers are viewed. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald probably know that Leinart is the key to their future and want to get started.

Rookie quarterbacks are usually hands-off in fantasy leagues, but Leinart is a special case. He's polished, looked excellent in the pre-season, and has the best wideout combination in the NFC. His mobility will help him avoid the pass rush better than Warner. More importantly, Leinart plays for a coach that won't go into an offensive shell because he's starting a young quarterback. Dennis Green can't help passing 35 times a game. Leinart will make plenty of mistakes, but his receivers will also make plenty of plays for him. He can be a decent QB2.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Charlie Frye, Browns - Charlie Frye has more rushing touchdowns than Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee, Warrick Dunn, Tatum Bell, Steven Jackson, Tiki Barber, Ahman Green, Thomas Jones, Deshaun Foster, Reggie Bush, Julius Jones, and Chester Taylor combined.

He's the first quarterback to rush for a touchdown in three straight games since … Otto Graham! Frye's rushing scores aren't sustainable, but I stick to my claim a few weeks back that he will be the second-best rushing quarterback in the NFL behind Michael Vick. Throw in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow's impressive starts, and Frye could continue to pile up sneaky QB2 numbers. The AFC North schedule is difficult, but Frye managed to put up over 240 passing yards on Baltimore and Cincinnati. Bonus points because he faces Oakland this week.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Bruce Gradkowski, Bucs - We're all rooting for you, Bruce. Chris Simms' injury gives the Toledo sixth-round pick a chance to salvage the fantasy seasons of Carnell Williams, Joey Galloway, and Michael Clayton. It's a tall order. Playing mostly against backups, Gradkowski was a revelation in the preseason, completing 22 of his first 27 attempts. Jon Gruden talked him up as a future starter the minute he saw how fast Gradkowski picked up the complex Tampa offense.

He doesn't have a big arm, but has good mobility and smarts. Tampa will try to make life easy by concentrating on timing passes, probably to Clayton, Alex Smith, and Michael Pittman. The offense will get very conservative. Since Galloway's best skill is his deep speed, he's hurt the most.

The only time Gruden played a rookie quarterback was with Simms in 2004. It didn't go well. Gradkowksi will be fun to watch, but he's only worth owning in 2-QB leagues.

Recommendation: Worth owning 2-QB leagues.

Jon Kitna, Lions - I saw Kitna dropped in a few leagues after relatively quiet outings against Chicago and Seattle, two of the league's best defenses. Kitna piled up much better numbers against Green Bay and should be owned in all leagues. While inefficient, Kitna will put up plenty of empty yards. The Detroit defense will keep him Kitna throwing from behind.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Wide Receivers

Bernard Berrian, Bears - I wrote about Berrian at length last week in two columns, so I won't repeat myself here. He had another solid effort in Week 3 and looks like a good WR3 option in fantasy leagues with the right matchup.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Chris Henry, Bengals - Henry is another player I write about every week, but is still available in the majority of leagues. He may be suspended this season, but he's the most valuable third receiver in the NFL by far until that happens. Watching the Bengals, Henry looks like the most talented player of their wideout group. He's worth owning as a reserve in 12-team leagues.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Doug Gabriel, Patriots - Did Tom Brady find his No. 1 receiver in the second half when Gabriel caught six passes against the Broncos? Probably not, but Gabriel could push Reche Caldwell or Troy Brown to the bench shortly.

Recommendation: Should be owned in deep leagues

Bobby Engram, Seahawks - It doesn't matter who Seattle brings in at receiver, Engram quietly produces. He's available in most leagues despite being a top-20 receiver this season. Seattle will focus on the passing game with Shaun Alexander out, so Engram can still catch 4-6 passes a week. He's the type of WR3 that won't win many games for you, but he won't lose them either.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

Roscoe Parrish, Bills - I've received a few emails about Parrish. There's no way you should own a reserve wideout on the Bills, long touchdown be damned.

Recommendation: Stay away.

Tight End

Eric Johnson, 49ers TE - As long as Vernon Davis is out, Eric Johnson will be San Francisco's starter at tight end. He racked up 7 catches for 87 yards and a score in Week 3, mostly in garbage time. For players in PPR leagues, he's a great tight end fill-in for the next month.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

Alex Smith, Bucs TE - Smith finally showed up with four catches for 72 yards in Week 3. The change to Bruce Gradkowski won't hurt Smith as much as the wide receivers because Tampa will try to work the middle of the field. Since Tampa is on a bye, Smith should be available.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

Bo Scaife, Titans TE - Maybe it's the name. Scaife has two less career catches than Heath Miller after being drafted in 2005, but no one takes him seriously. With Erron Kinney still out indefinitely, Scaife remains a fine TE2. He's outplayed Ben Troupe to this point.

Recommendation: Worth owning in deep leagues