Tough Matchup For Steven Jackson

[Hache Man]

Tough Matchup for Jackson
If it happens once, it's a fluke. Twice, it's a coincidence. If it happens three times, it starts to look like a trend. With the season now three weeks old, we're starting to get a picture of how teams and players are doing this year, as opposed to how they did last year and how we expected them to do this year. The Saints don't look bad at all. The Bucs really do. Rex Grossman and the Bears offense have done a complete about-face from last season. So have the formerly explosive Redskins.

Starting next week, we'll have even better information. With a quarter of the season completed (roughly), Football Outsiders' VOA stat will become DVOA, adjusted for the strength of the opposition each team has played. I make much mention of VOA, Football Outsiders' flagship stat that evaluates players and teams based not on their total output but on the quality of their play compared to the rest of the NFL's quality of play in similar situations. Footballoutsiders.com has a much more thorough explanation, and you can also find each team's VOA rankings there.

QUARTERBACKS

Start

Marc Bulger vs. Detroit -- Two weeks ago, Rex Grossman threw four touchdown passes. Rex Grossman, ladies and gentlemen! A week ago, Brett Favre threw three touchdowns and no interceptions. In 2006! The Lions defense has the power to travel back in time, to a time when Favre was one of the best quarterbacks in the league and Grossman was a star at Florida about to be drafted in the first round. If only they could use their power for good, instead of encouraging Michiganders to keep watching Tigers games, since they don't hurt.

Daunte Culpepper at Houston -- In Week 1 I told you to start everybody you could who was playing against the Saints each week. That hasn't proven to be such good advice, so I'm replacing it with something better: start everybody you can against the Texans. They're last in the league in both rush and pass defense VOA. The difference in total defense VOA between the Texans and the 31st-ranked Titans is just slightly greater than the difference between the Titans and the 11th-ranked Vikings. In other words, they're incredibly terrible, and only part of that is attributable to having played the Colts already.

David Carr vs. Miami -- This week's projections like the Texans-Dolphins game to be a barnburner of disguised mediocrity. The Dolphins this season rank sixth against the run but just 24th against the pass. That nicely mirrors the Texans' offensive rankings: eighth in passing, 26th in rushing. Carr and the Texans will follow the script that has brought them so much, uh, success through the first three weeks: score an impressive touchdown on the first drive, then stall out completely, going into a tailspin until they're down by about 20, then get another touchdown pass or two once the defense loosens up in garbage time.

Sit:

Steve McNair vs. San Diego -- Sure, you say, the Chargers defense has looked great, but they've only played the atrocious Raiders and Titans. It's true, but it's also true that they have looked great. The Ravens offense hasn't looked so great, and they've hardly played the league's best this year. They needed a last-minute field goal to get past the woebegone Browns last week, in the only game so far this year in which the Ravens haven't scored a defensive touchdown. Don't let anybody convince you that McNair is still a superstar NFL quarterback.

Kurt Warner at Atlanta -- Despite being roasted, toasted, and burnt to a crisp by the Saints last week, the Falcons still rank as a top-10 pass defense. John Abraham is coming back from injury this week, so you can probably chalk him up for three sack-fumbles. Warner may be on a short leash in this game after Dennis Green's made-you-look publicity, so he makes a particularly poor start this week.

Mark Brunell vs. Jacksonville -- Don't be fooled by the Redskins' offensive explosion last week. Most defenses aren't like the Texans defense. In particular, the Jaguars defense isn't like the Texans defense; it's ranked fourth overall and sixth against the pass. He'll get sacked, he'll get intercepted, his receivers will be covered, and anyone who catches the ball will actually be tackled.

RUNNING BACKS

Start

Joseph Addai/Dominic Rhodes at N.Y. Jets -- I'm not here to tell you which guy is going to be the guy, if one of the guys is going to be the guy. NFL coaches are more secretive than the guy holding the launch codes; their wives don't even know what they're thinking, so forget about me being able to help you there. But what I am here to tell you is that the Jets have the second-worst run defense in the league. It's not like you have both Addai and Rhodes on your team. (...Right? Come on with that, really? Why?) So whichever one you have is a pretty good option this week.

Laurence Maroney at Cincinnati -- Here's yet another murky running back situation. Reports are that Corey Dillon has been practicing this week, so it's hard to say who will shoulder more of the load. But there's one thing in particular to recommend Maroney: the Patriots use him in the passing game. Not a real whole lot, but a lot more than they use Corey Dillon. And the Bengals, sans Odell Thurman, are terrible at defending passes to running backs.

Chester Taylor at Buffalo -- Taylor may not be the best back around, but if the Vikings are going to run him 25 times a game, he's a good deal. That puts him on pace to carry 400 times this season, which offers three possibilities: He won't make 400 carries because the team changes its gameplan either to pass more or split carries; he won't make 400 carries because he'll get hurt first; or he will get 400 carries, get hurt next year, and never be the same player again (remember Jamal Anderson?). The moral of the story is, play him early while he's still up to the task, particularly against soft run defenses like Buffalo's.

Sit

Steven Jackson vs. Detroit -- The 2006 Lions have the top ranked run defense in the league through three weeks. Seriously. As previously noted, they've never met a receiver they couldn't fail to cover, so the Rams still have a chance to score a ton of points, but Jackson doesn't figure to be a major contributor. He hasn't really lived up to his first-round fantasy billing this year, so if you might have a better option, consider benching him.

Thomas Jones vs. Seattle -- Jones hasn't exactly been setting the fantasy world on fire thus far, and you shouldn't expect this to be the week he explodes. The Seahawks have the fourth best defense against the run, as well as the best offense the Bears have faced to this point. Expect Chicago to lean more on Rex Grossman than Jones. 17 carries for 51 yards (maintaining his weekly 3.0 average) sounds about right.

Fred Taylor at Washington -- The Redskins have been a disappointment this season, but one thing they've done well is defend the run. Taylor is enjoying a better season so far than he's had in a couple years, but he's still running for a low average, and Maurice Jones-Drew is beginning to snipe at his carries.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Start

Terry Glenn at Tennessee -- Tennessee has been terrible against receivers of all shapes and sizes this year. Glenn has been about as good as you can hope a #2 receiver will be. Put those together, and you should have a very nice day receiving.

Laveranues Coles vs. Indianapolis -- Coles is enjoying a nice little renaissance with Pennington back at quarterback, and it should continue against the porous Colts defense we had all grown to know and love until last season. It's back, so take advantage.

Donte' Stallworth vs. Green Bay -- If Stallworth's surprise hamstring injury (a surprise only because of its suddenness, not that it's not something that happens to him a lot) sidelines him again this week, switch this recommendation over to Reggie Brown. All three of Green Bay's opponents have thrown the ball often and well to their top wideouts, so read the tea leaves, figure out which receiver will be the prime target for McNabb this week, and start him if you got him.

Sit

Doug Gabriel at Cincinnati -- Gabriel did a nice job in his first major action for the Patriots, but don't expect him to do so well in his second. The Bengals have the third-best pass defense in the league, and they're particularly good against #1 receivers, which Gabriel appears to be by default in New England.

Deion Branch at Chicago -- The four-headed monster of Darrell Jackson, Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, and Bobby Engram should see a lot of action against the Bears with Shaun Alexander and Jerramy Stevens out. But that's a double-edged sword for fantasy purposes. The four-receiver lineups should create different mismatches all day, meaning Hasselbeck will spread the ball around. The Bears have been particularly good against #2 receivers this season, so don't expect much from Branch, who best fits that description.

Santana Moss vs. Jacksonville -- Mark Brunell completed 24 passes, and Moss only had 50 yards receiving? Put him back in the cooler, especially against a top defense like Jacksonville.

TIGHT ENDS

Start

Tony Gonzalez vs. San Francisco -- Gonzalez isn't really the weekly must-start player he has been in the past (although if you have him you probably drafted him thinking he would be), but this week he should be good. San Francisco has been terrible defending against tight ends this season; if Gonzalez is ever going to be productive with Damon Huard at quarterback, this week is as good a bet as any.

Sit

Alge Crumpler vs. Arizona -- Crumpler ran out of butterfingers trying to count his drops against the Saint last week. This week he faces a Cardinals defense that, believe it or not, has been one of the league's best against tight ends so far this year.

DEFENSES

Browns at Oakland -- Need a bye-week fill-in for the Broncos or Steelers defense? You could do a lot worse than the Browns. Sure, they aren't actually that good, but the Raiders offense is just that bad.

Sit

Panthers vs. New Orleans -- The Panthers last week gave up the first touchdown the Buccaneers had scored all season. Then they gave up the second and the third. I still have trouble believing these Saints are for real, but the Falcons defense is nothing to sneeze and they pretty much pushed it around the yard.