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10-05-06, 06:16 PM
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Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak 
Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 56,762
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Fantasy Football Info Week 5
Week 5 Rankings
Marques Colston, Jerricho Cotchery, and Bernard Berrian are still top-15 fantasy wideouts and this makes us uncomfortable. Fantasy owners (and writers) want to feel like experts, but no one saw these guys coming. The beautifully laid-out drafts of one month ago mock us in retrospect. As we dive into October, fantasy leaguers should ask: When should we let go of what we thought we knew heading into the season? I say it's right now. Holding on to 2005 any longer will result in planning for 2007 by November. Reggie Williams, for example, is a different player this season. A slowly running punchline for his first two years, the Jacksonville wideout is now a fierce playmaker. Seventh-round rookie wideouts like Colston haven't dominated like this before, but he's breaking the mold like Anquan Boldin made three years ago. Jets coach Eric Mangini made it clear from day one that he thought Cotchery was a tough, quality starter. Now I believe him. With all the lessons of the 2006 season in mind, here are the Week 5 rankings... Week 5 Quarterbacks QB Notes: It's an ugly week for signal-callers when the Brad Johnson/Jon Kitna/Mark Brunell triumvirate of crustiness hover around top-ten QB1 status. It's all about the matchups. Johnson has the stumbling Lions, the best matchup of the week. Brunell, who just completed the most surprising performance of the year against Jacksonville, faces a weak Giants secondary. I think Kitna can have consistent top-15 value playing catch-up under Mike Martz. More proof of the rough week for quarterback: Damon Huard is ranked above eight players. The rankings at every position look a little thin in Week 5 because there are a lot of fantasy studs on the bye week teams: Cincinnati, Seattle, Atlanta, and Houston. … The Jaguars defense is banged-up, so Jack Del Rio is starting to air it out more with Byron Leftwich. They are tenth in the league in passing attempts after finishing 20th last season. Leftwich is getting better protection and the team is keeping Maurice Drew-Jones in for half the downs to add another receiving weapon. Couple that with Williams' emergence and Marcedes Lewis' return and Leftwich can stay in the top-ten quarterbacks. His fourth-down, fourth quarter throw while getting nailed by a Redskins blitz is why it's hard not to love this kid. He has a great matchup this week against the bendable Jets defense. … This should be a solid week for Tom Brady. Miami's rush defense is very good, but Bill Belichick will look to attack their secondary. … Drew Bledsoe hasn't done anything special in Dallas' two wins. He has a 53% completion percentage. A much better test for his season comes this week in Philly. I don't trust him. David Carr is off this weak, but I've been impressed with how he's standing in the pocket and delivering the ball while taking hits. Gary Kubiak is rubbing off on him. … Andrew Walter and Oakland's offense just looks lost. I was hopeful the bye week would help more than it did. If Walter can't complete passes against Cleveland, what's going to happen against the rest of the league? A big misnomer is that the Raiders have great offensive talent around him. Courtney Anderson drops two passes a week, Randy Moss isn't trying, and Alvis Whitted (career high of 14 catches in seven seasons) is starting at receiver. … Charlie Frye makes a handful of boneheaded throws every week, but I'm still impressed with how consistent his passing numbers are. His production is outstanding for a second-year quarterback. … Brunell was effective throwing deep against Washington and should try the same tactic against New York. Editor's Note:With a debt to Football Daily Dose Maestro Aaron Gleeman, I'm going to include some "fun with projections." I'm going to include a few interesting players' "on-pace" statistics now that we've reached the quarter pole for most teams. Obviously, take these stats with a boulder of salt – they are just fun to look at, and one game will change them dramatically. Peyton Manning - 4,448 passing yards, 24 TD, 4 INT, 8 rushing TD Donovan McNabb - 4,992 passing yards, 36 TD, 4 INT, 344 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs Michael Vick - 2,088 passing yards, 12 TD, 8 INT, 152 rushing attempts, 1,332 rushing yards, 4 rushing TD Byron Leftwich - 3,576 passing yards, 20 TD, 20 INT, 8 rushing TD Chad Pennington - 4,060 passing yards, 24 TD, 8 INT Carson Palmer - 3,668 passing yards, 24 TD, 16 INT Charlie Frye - 3,464 passing yards, 20 TD, 28 INT, 68 rushing attempts, 232 rushing yards, 12 rushing TD Daunte Culpepper - 3,716 passing yards, 8 TD, 12 INT Week 5 Running Backs RB Notes:Remember early last season when every defense played a deep zone to slow Peyton Manning down, all the while letting Edgerrin James run all over them? That's exactly what the Jets did Sunday and it worked pretty well. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes rushed for an easy 159 yards and the Colts still had to win the game twice in the last five minutes. Expect other teams to parrot New York, which is great news for Addai and Rhodes owners. They should have huge running lanes. Addai was in during crunch time last week and stayed in near the goal-line when he was in the game. While he's had uneven yardage, the rookie has a 4.5 yards-per-carry average and 11 catches. Both he and Rhodes are fine options this week. I hate to parrot conventional wisdom, but sometimes it's right. Mike Mularkey isn't using Ronnie Brown enough in the running game. Miami is 28th in rushing attempts after playing four straight close games. It makes no sense with Miami struggling to protect Daunte Culpepper. Brown is on pace to catch 76 passes, which is saving his value in PPR leagues. He's been a top-five back in that format. … There is still reason to be concerned for Larry Johnson owners. San Francisco occasionally had nine men in the box in an effort to stop him, and it worked. Another one of his starting tackles is hurt this week. LJ only topped 100 yards after 30 carries and this was against the 49ers. Marion Barber is a concern, but Julius Jones gets very consistent carries. He's averaging 20 a game and has no less than 17 in any contest. That's why he's a safe play every week. … Chris Brown owners, this could be your last chance to use him. Brown has looked poor this year, but a date against the Colts on turf suits him. Lendale White is likely to slowly take over, but Brown is a reasonable flex play with this matchup. … I'm not listing Ahman Green until he practices fully. He'll be on the weekend update if that happens. There are rumblings that DeAngelo Williams' blocking is keeping him off the field. Carolina's offensive line is struggling and John Fox looks happy to play it safe with DeShaun Foster most of the time. … Clinton Portis had huge holes to run through against Jacksonville. He's so solid whether running inside or outside the tackles and his shoulder problem appears gone for the moment. He's productive in the passing game and relied upon at the goal line. Rocco DeMaro asked where the studs are earlier this week. CP fits the bill if he stays healthy. … The Redskins really attacked the edges of the Jaguars defense in the running game, especially the linebackers. Jacksonville's outside backers are nothing special. Look for the Jets to get Leon Washington more involved in an effort to try the same thing this week. Kevan Barlow should keep getting the goal-line carries though. … Keep an eye on Cedric Houston's return to health. He flashed before getting hurt against Indy and could be a factor in the second half of the year. … Fred Taylor was barely on the field in the second half against Washington. He probably won't play much when the Jaguars are trailing as his time-share with Maurice Jones-Drew becomes a true split of playing time. Drew is still a dicey fantasy option because his touches are unpredictable. Fun With Projections: Laurence Maroney - 1,176 rushing yards, 304 receiving yards, 12 TD Corey Dillon - 944 rushing yards, 88 receiving yards, 8 TD Ronnie Brown - 956 rushing yards, 76 receptions, 624 receiving yards, 8 TD Reggie Bush - 588 rushing yards, 92 receptions, 748 receiving yards Kevin Jones - 1,012 rushing yards, 12 TD, 84 receptions, 524 receiving yards Frank Gore - 1,324 rushing yards, 12 TD, 64 receptions, 516 receiving yards Jamal Lewis - 1,072 rushing yards, 4 TD, 0 receptions Week 5 Wide Receivers WR Notes: If Steve Smith is this good at 80%, be afraid for the rest of the league. Somehow his start to this year makes it even more obvious he should have been MVP last year. Smith made an outrageous off-balance grab across his body in last week's game that was overturned. … I'm uncomfortable ranking two rookies as WR2s in fantasy leagues each week, but Marques Colston and Greg Jennings are consistent with their opportunities. Colston is too hot to bench at all, and Jennings has another tasty matchup against St. Louis. … Donald Driver's drop problems have been a year-long issue. He's not playing with confidence and is now listed as questionable with sore ribs, although he's expected to play. I wouldn't bench him in fantasy leagues because he'll get so many opportunities. Plus Koren Robinson's deep speed could open up the underneath routes for Driver and Jennings. … Donte' Stallworth's injury doesn't particularly help Reggie Brown. He'll just attract more attention from Cowboys corner Terrence Newman. The Ravens tried to keep Mark Clayton involved last week, but Clayton had a drop and McNair was off target with a few passes. … Everyone is sick of Peyton Manning's commercials, but he's playing as well as I've ever seen him. A handful of the throws in the fourth quarter against the Jets, including the first go-ahead touchdown, were just unfair. One interesting note is that Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison haven't scored a touchdown this season despite being among the league leaders in receiving. … Reggie Williams is playing better partly because of how the Jaguars are using him. They are no longer trying to make him a jump-ball target, but rather giving him room to make yards after the catch. He's tough to tackle and reminds me of a young Keyshawn Johnson. He's hard to cover over the middle of the field. Expect Doug Gabriel to start every week and be targeted at least 6 times a game. That makes him a fine WR3 option against the Dolphins. … I'm having a hard time letting go of Randy Moss, the Hall of Fame player that used to be on the Vikings. Watching the Raiders tape this week made it easier. Moss showed less than exceptional effort on one deep pass that appeared to go through his finger tips. He didn't go hard for a ridiculous jump ball Andrew Walter threw while being held by the foot. One bright spot for Moss owners: Oakland insists on throwing it deep to him repeatedly. Since the 49ers are such a good matchup, Moss is still a reasonable WR3 this week. … Braylon Edwards owners should be very encouraged by his six-catch effort against Oakland. Isaac Bruce has been quietly effective this season. He has another solid WR2 matchup against a thin Packers secondary this week. The Rams passing attack is gaining confidence. … Troy Williamson is raw and somewhat inconsistent, but the Vikings keep throwing to him. You can't bench him against the Lions. Fun With Projections: Andre Johnson - 120 receptions, 1640 yards, 8 TD Chad Johnson - 72 receptions, 804 yards, 4 TD Bryant Johnson - 16 receptions, 580 yards, 4 TD Jerricho Cotchery - 72 receptions, 1,136 yards, 12 TD Roy Williams - 100 receptions, 1,536 yards, 4 TD Reggie Williams - 80 receptions, 976 yards, 12 TD Isaac Bruce - 80 receptions, 1,280 yards, 4 TD Joe Horn - 60 receptions, 892 yards, 0 TD Mark Clayton - 60 receptions, 636 yards, 0 TD Michael Clayton - 48 receptions, 587 yards, 0 TD Week 5 Tight Ends TE Notes: Chris Cooley is getting consistent targets. He was a drop away from approaching 100 yards last week. He's also blocking better, which doesn't really help fantasy leaguers. … Antonio Gates is a buy-low candidate. Philip Rivers and Marty Schottenheimer have dulled his value to this point, but San Diego will have to start throwing the ball more. Gates made an exceptional one-handed catch last week that he pressed against his helmet before getting control of the ball while simultaneously dragging three defenders for a first down. He's still the best tight end in football and Marty will try to get the ball in his hands more moving forward. Jason Witten isn't being thrown to very often. I think he'll bounce back, but his numbers are going to suffer overall with Terrell Owens and Anthony Fasano in Dallas. … This is a great week to use Dallas Clark. Peyton Manning continues to look at his tight ends and running backs in the red zone. … Todd Heap continues to lead all tight ends in pass targets. … I'd rank Marques Colston first among tight ends if he's eligible in your league. Week 5 Kickers Week 5 Team Defense |
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