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Old 10-09-06, 10:47 PM   #1
Hache Man
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Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
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Arrow A Titanic Let-Down

A Titanic Let-Down

The most notable thing for me Sunday, other than Donovan McNabb's continued brilliance, was the designation of Titans running back Chris Brown.

Brown was inactive for the Titans game against the Colts. But that wasn't the notable part. The amazing thing was that Brown was a healthy scratch.

I can't remember the last time Chris Brown was actually healthy prior to a mid-season football game. Incredible.

Emerging Trends

The Good Stuff:

Travis Henry's success against the Colts came to a surprise to everyone not named Travis Henry. He ran hard, gaining 123 yards on just 19 carries and seems to be the best Titan to bet on for a featured workload moving forward. LenDale White (8/48; 3/7) also looked good and deserves to be on your trading radar.

For a slightly more thorough outlook on this backfield, scroll down to Shanahan's Corner.

Marc Bulger has yet to throw an interception in 2006. In fact, he hasn't thrown a pick in 214 pass attempts, a new Rams record.

He had another solid day Sunday against the Packers (18/28, 220, 2 TD; 3/10) and seems to have fully grasped the Linehan offense.

That's the good news. The bad news is that his next five starts come against the Seahawks (twice), the Chargers, the Chiefs and the Panthers. Three of those starts (both Seattle games and the Carolina game) figure to be somewhat manageable matchups, but the two games against K.C. and San Diego are as poor as it gets—entering Week 5, those two teams ranked 1-2 in pass defense. Marc also has to contend with Chicago in Week 14.

If those matchups concern you, now might be a good time to see what the market will bear for Mr. Bulger. Personally, I'd rather have Bulger than 90% of the QBs in the league. The schedule isn't great, but it's not terrible either as the Rams have games against S.F., Oakland and Arizona late in the season. I'm advising a hold on Bulger despite the inevitable downturn his numbers will take in upcoming weeks.

Seton La-Salle grad Bruce Gradkowski (20/31, 225, 2 TD; 6/19, fum) was absolutely impressive in Tampa's 24-21 loss to New Orleans. He's in a perfect system of his abilities—think a more efficient Charlie Frye.

He connected with Joey Galloway (4/110, TD) and presented enough of a threat for Carnell Williams (20/111; 3/14) to finally get going. This kid has real ability—he holds the NCAA record for career completion percentage—and he's athletic. He's also from the great quarterback city of Pittsburgh, PA.

A better test comes next week as the opportunistic Cincinnati defense comes into Tampa well rested off their Week 5 bye. Do not start Bruce next week, but he's an interesting prospect to hold onto in keeper formats, and he could conceivably be started in the right matchup for a desperate owner.

Bernard Berrian (4/97, TD) continues to have a breakout season.

His value is as high as it's ever been right now, and I think it'll get a little higher. Wait for 2 more productive games from the speedster, and deal him before the weather gets cold. There aren't many worse climates for a deep threat than cold and windy Chicago.

Deal this guy before mid-November!
In Minnesota, Chester Taylor (26/123; 5/31) had a big yardage game for the Vikings. They're going to ride this guy until he breaks, so hop on board and deal with the somewhat inconsistent Vikes offense. The same can be said for Frank Gore in San Francisco. Gore (27/134; 3/38) racked up big numbers and remains a total-yardage beast. Neither runner scored Sunday, but both should have opportunities down the road.
As an aside, I wouldn't worry too much about Michael Robinson vulturing goal line carries—if Gore can go fumble-less for a couple more games, he'll get his chances.

Donovan McNabb (18/33, 354, 2TD; 1/1, TD, fum) continued his assault on fantasy scoreboards everywhere. The league's leading fantasy player/quarterback stole the show, pulling his Eagles away from the Cowboys late and upstaging Terrell Owens in his return to the Ill-a-delph.

I see no reason to trade McNabb, as he's an elite player in a great system. But his value has never been higher. He's thrown for eleven TDs and one INT in 2006. He's rushed for three TD's. He has yet to throw for less than 288 yards in a game.

In short, he's the MVP of the first third of the season. Do with that information what you will. But I'd have to be overwhelmed to deal him right now.

The Bad Stuff:


Nobody could have predicted what happened to Dominic Rhodes (20/84; 5/26) and Joseph Addai (13/62; 2/15) in Indianapolis Sunday.

Coming into their Week 5 game against the Colts, the Titans had allowed an NFL-worst 708 rushing yards. They also had the third-worst scoring defense in the league, allowing an average of 30.2 points per game. Their last six meeting with the Colts had the Titans outscored, on average, 35-14.

So naturally, the Titans led 10-0 at the half and held Indy to 14 points for the game.

Peyton Manning (20/31, 166, 2 TD, INT; 1/8), Marvin Harrison (3/29, TD) and Reggie Wayne (3/24, TD) also had sub-par stat lines as the Titans were either brilliant in their gameplan, or the Colts simply took them lightly.

A tough result for those of us invested in the Colts backfield.

Vernand Morency's status as a great handcuff for Ahman Green lasted about one quarter. Morency (6/15; 2/9, fum) fumbled in the first quarter of the Packers' 23-20 loss to the Rams. After that, it was the Noah Herron show. A painful ending to what looked like a solid spot start.

Early speculation has Herron continuing to be the featured guy if Ahman Green is unable to go. Stay tuned to rotoworld.com.

There is no hope for Reuben Droughns (18/65; 3/3).

The Browns have been ravaged by injuries to their centers and Charlie Frye (26/43, 173, 2 INT; 2/12, fum) just isn't ready to keep defenses honest. On top of that, Jerome Harrison (3/14; 4/10) looks like a pretty good runner to me, and I can see him eventually stealing some carries.

The Browns also play a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way. Definitely deal Droughns if you can get RB2 value.

Last week, against a very good Jacksonville defense, Mark Brunell threw for over 300 yards and three TD's as his 'Skins put up nearly 500 yards of total offense in their 36-30 win. This week, against a Giants defense that was by all accounts porous, the Redskins did next to nothing, gaining under 200 yards of total offense.

So a week after going crazy against the Jags, Mark Brunell (12/22, 109) put up a monumental stinker against the previously sieve-like Giants defense.

Note to the Redskins—Cybil called. She wants her affliction back.

Can we now please stop with the 'Chad Pennington is back' stories?

The oft-overrated Pennington (10/17, 71, 3 INT; 2/17) came crashing back to earth Sunday against a fired up Jaguars defense. And I, for one, am glad.

He'll occasionally put up good numbers, but Chad just isn't a reliable starting fantasy quarterback. Especially considering the Jets troubles running the football.

His arm is still weak. He's still incredibly immobile. He's over-hyped because he plays in New York. And he still looks like a 12-year-old. Don't fall for those baby blues and that curly blonde hair.

Chad is still a QB2 with upward potential depending on the matchup, but he should not be anyone's go-to fantasy starter.

Hines Ward's value remains tied to Ben Roethlisberger's performance. And unfortunately for Hines (4/49), post-accident Ben has yet to look like the Ben of old.

Roethlisberger (20/31, 220, 2 INT) has yet to throw for a touchdown in 2006. He's thrown seven interceptions, at least five of which came on outlandishly poor decisions. The guy is clearly struggling.

Also, Heath Miller's breakout game in Week 1 has yet to be repeated. He's caught six passes in the last three games. Miller (2/22) is a good buy-low candidate right now, as the Steelers should look to get him more involved soon…we hope.

Shanahan Corner:

Laurence Maroney (18/38) came crashing back to earth and Corey Dillon (10/45) was similarly ineffective in the Pats thoroughly unremarkable 20-10 win over Miami. This column has preferred Maroney over Dillon from day one and nothing that transpired Sunday changed that opinion.

Dominic Rhodes (20/84; 5/26) got the bulk of the work against Tennessee and remains virtually even with Joseph Addai (13/62; 2/15) in terms of right-now value. But, moving forward, I'd still prefer to own Addai.

Strangely, The New York Jets 'Shanahan' situation might have gotten a little clearer Sunday in their 41-0 loss to the Jaguars despite Brad Smith, a backup WR/RB/QB, actually starting the game at RB.

Leon Washington (23/101; 1/8) got the vast majority of the carries—no other Jets runner carried the ball more than four times. Could this be a one-week departure or is Leon Washington actually the featured back in New York? Stay tuned, as this situation is clearly fluid.

We may have another 'Shanahan' to keep track of in Green Bay, where Vernand Morency (6/15; 2/9) fumbled away his shot at pseudo-featured back status in the first quarter. His turnover paved the way for Noah Herron's big game (20/106, TD; 5/20).

Grab Herron this week and hold onto Morency if you nabbed him last week. Both could eventually emerge as the go-to guy in Green Bay.

Cedric Benson (14/48, 2 TD; 2/14) got substantial work as the Bears dominated the Bills Sunday. It remains to be seen whether his workload was the function of the blowout or if the Bears are genuinely interested in making Cedric a bigger part of the offense. Either way, Thomas Jones (22/109; 4/13) owners are feeling a little frustrated this morning. Look for this trend to continue—mostly Jones in close games and Benson in mop-up duty.

Also, Benson's two TDs were both 1-yard runs, but I wouldn't put too much into that. Both came at the end of drives in which Benson was the primary ball carrier. I don't necessarily see a goal-line vulture situation developing.

In Tennessee, the running back carousel continued to turn. Chris Brown was shockingly healthy, yet inactive. Travis Henry (19/123; 2/10) had a huge day and LenDale White (8/48; 3/7) pitched in when he was called upon in the Titans 14-13 loss at the hands of Indianapolis.

Hopefully this situation will gain some stability over the next few weeks. Until then, it's tough to make any solid recommendations about this backfield. For now, Henry and White are the obvious backs to own. If I had to choose between those two, I'd own White.

DeShaun Foster's value spiked Sunday when DeAngelo Williams, Foster's understudy, was injured on his first carry of the game. Foster ran well enough (24/106; 3/12) against the Browns and is a middling RB1 until Williams returns.

Stay tuned to rotoworld.com for Williams' updated status as the week progresses.

The Saints' Deuce McAllister (15/123; 1/8) had a big day against the Bucs Sunday. He and Reggie Bush (9/23; 11/63) continue to produce in an effective Saints backfield. Their arrangement has changed little since Week 1. Favor Deuce in TD-heavy formats. Favor Reggie in yardage and points-per-reception formats.

It looks like Maurice Jones-Drew-Griffith-Joyner-Kersee (13/59, 2 TD) is officially a meaningful part of the Jaguars running game. He ran hard and ran well. Along with Fred Taylor (21/111, TD; 1/32), the two of them make for a very productive 1-2 punch.

It should be said that despite Jones-Drew-Griffith-Joyner-Kersee's 2 short-ish TD's, he's not the exclusive goalline back. Fred Taylor also got work inside the five-yard line.
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