Week 6 Fantasy Football Matchups

[Hache Man]

Week 6 Matchups
Since when does the NFL schedule six teams to have byes in the same week? They did it to accommodate the new flexible scheduling, whereby NBC gets a juicy matchup each Sunday night from Week 10 on. The NFL cherry-picks a game from the Sunday schedule, and it didn't want any team to miss out on the opportunity to have a prime time game. That means each team's bye has to come between weeks 3 and 9, which totally wrecks the orderly four-teams-each-week-for-eight-weeks system that's been in place since 2002.

Clearly, the NFL wasn't thinking about fantasy players when they made this switch. In one of my leagues, I decide on my #2 running back each between Corey Dillon, Reuben Droughns, and Joseph Addai. (It wasn't the best draft I've ever had, but that's neither here nor there.) This week, the Patriots, Browns, and Colts all have the same bye week. Yeah, that's my fault for not noticing that when I drafted. But the odds against that happening in a four-bye-a-week regime are a lot higher than when six teams are idle at the same time. It's the NFL's fault that I'm starting Leon Washington this week. Just thinking that gives me the chills.

Almost every pick references DVOA, Football Outsiders' flagship stat that evaluates players and teams based not on their total output but on the quality of their play compared to the rest of the NFL's quality of play in similar situations. All rankings are in DVOA, not the official rankings based on yards. DVOA is more predictive of future success than anything else out there, and this column applies that predictive power not to figuring out who will win real football games, which is what DVOA was created to do, but to help you win fantasy football games. Footballoutsiders.com has a much more thorough explanation of how DVOA works, and you can also find each team's DVOA rankings there.

QUARTERBACKS

Start

Chad Pennington vs. Miami -- You'd throw three interceptions against the Jaguars too, so don't forget about Pennington's hot start just because of that. The Jets schedule returns to its normal ways with Miami, the 26th ranked pass defense, on deck.

Philip Rivers at San Francisco -- The 49ers have the #25 pass defense in the league. Marty Schottenheimer started taking the training wheels off Rivers last week out of necessity – he didn't want to lose another game by fecklessly running the ball into a tough defense for 28 minutes. Rivers didn't tip over – he barely even wobbled – so Schottenheimer should use this week to let him ride free and see how far he can go. Rivers is Rex Grossman West. Think about that when you're looking for a bye week QB who could contribute to your team down the line.

Drew Bledsoe vs. Houston -- Drew Bledsoe these days is, basically, lousy. But the Texans pass defense is, basically, lousier. Bledsoe has some ability when he's not under pressure. Not being under pressure is one of the many benefits of playing against the Texans (eighth-worst in Adjusted Sack Rate). Among the others is having wide open spaces in the defense backfield in which to find your talented receivers running free. Texas Stadium has never looked so bucolic.

Sit

Drew Brees vs. Philadelphia -- Three cheers for the resurgent Saints. But in fairness, they've done it against the 19th, 20th, 21st, and 24th ranked pass defenses in the league (Carolina, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Green Bay) … and the 3rd ranked Falcons. Don't ask me how that last one happened, but it didn't feature a lot of aerial fireworks from the Saints. This week they face the fifth-ranked pass defense in the Philadelphia Eagles. For the arithmetically challenged, 5 is more like 3 than it is 21, so don't expect much out of the Saints passing game this week.

Alex Smith vs. San Diego -- Smith has been a pleasant surprise so far this fantasy season. But against the fierce pass rush (best Adjusted Sack Rate in the league) of the Chargers, he'll look just like his old self.

Eli Manning at Atlanta -- A top pass defense (third in the league). Ball-hawking defensive backs. An erratic, inaccurate passer with a penchant for the overthrow. At the very least, Manning's interceptions should outnumber his touchdown passes, and that never bodes well for a fantasy quarterback.

RUNNING BACKS

Start

Kevin Jones vs. Buffalo -- Don't be scared off by last week's appalling effort against the Vikings. Minnesota is sixth against the run; Buffalo is 26th. The Bills are a lot better against the pass – except to running backs – so expect the Lions to lean on Jones both on the ground and in the passing game.

Cadillac Williams vs. Cincinnati -- Cadillac is way off his early-season rookie of the year pace from a season ago, but if he has the wherewithal to get back on track, he should do it this week. The Bengals rank 29th against the run. The Bucs will protect their rookie signal caller against the ravages of the #6 pass defense by putting their offense in the hands of the man who's supposed to be their best offensive player.

Thomas Jones at Arizona -- The Cardinals rank in the 20s in overall defense and rush defense. If he doesn't lose too many garbage time carries to finally-coming-around Cedric Benson, Jones should have a good day, and a good chance of finding a few end zones.

Sit

Warrick Dunn vs. N.Y. Giants -- Dunn ranks 11th in the league in rushing yards, but he has no touchdowns. It's not entirely his fault; the Falcons have only scored five offensive touchdowns in four games. The Giants rank in the top 10 in both run defense and defense against passes to running backs, so don't look for Dunn to break out of his quasi-funk this week.

Frank Gore vs. San Diego -- Yes, Gore is having a great season. But like the rest of the San Francisco offense, he disappears against good defenses. San Diego's is a good defense, particularly the front seven (ninth against the run, tops in Adjusted Sack Rate). The 49ers will have to throw a lot because they'll be behind, but they won't get easy shots at the end zone for Gore to capitalize on, especially if Michael Robinson continues to poach his goal line carries..

Leon Washington vs. Miami -- Washington is a tempting bye-week fill in after his big game against the Jaguars, but try to resist if you can. The Dolphins are third in rush defense, better, surprisingly, than their cross-state rivals whom Washington just played. If there's anyone else who can do the job for you while you're without Reuben Droughns, Chester Taylor, or the committee backs in Indianapolis, Jacksonville, or New England, go with him instead.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Start

Rod Smith vs. Oakland -- This pick is based on the idea that Javon Walker is now the #1 receiver in Denver, and Smith is #1. They've been thrown almost the same number of passes (Smith one more) and caught almost the same number (Walker one more). But Walker has been much more productive, both according to fantasy (relevant to you) and according to DPAR (relevant to the Broncos and Raiders, who after all are making the game plans). The Raiders rank 30th in defending passes to #2 receivers – and a surprising fifth against #1s – so Smith could be more effective this week as a fill-in for, oh I don't know, Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne, than he has so far this season.

Jerricho Cotchery vs. Miami -- The Dolphins are outrageously terrible against #2 receivers. (Only the Patriots are worse, but they're on a bye.) The difference between their DVOA and the next-worst team's, the Raiders, is greater than the difference between the Raiders' and 18th ranked New Orleans. Chad Pennington will have a much easier time finding Cotchery than Laveranues Coles; the Dolphins are fourth against #1 receivers.

Randy Moss at Denver -- The Broncos rank 24th against passes to #1 receivers, which is a lot worse than any other aspect of their secondary ranks. I'm not sure that's enough to enable anything good to happen with this Oakland team, but if Football Outsiders has taught me anything, it's to trust the numbers.

Sit

Hines Ward vs. Kansas City -- The Chiefs are holding strong as the top team against #1 receivers – and because of the way DVOA works, the fact that Larry Fitzgerald left early last week doesn't inflate that. Until Ben Roethlisberger gets his head right, Ward will continue to disappoint his fantasy owners. That will be doubly true this week.

Steve Smith at Baltimore -- The Ravens defense is great at everything. #1 in rush defense, #1 in pass defense, #2 in Adjusted Sack Rate, and top-10 in defense against every type of receiver except tight ends. With just a mediocre pass-protecting line in front of him, Jake Delhomme will throw up too many of his Farveian prayer balls, they'll lead to time of possession and points for Baltimore, and the Ravens will be able to focus on Steve Smith and the passing game all day.

Torry Holt vs. Seattle -- The Seahawks defense is much better against #1 receivers (second in the league) than any other type of receiver. Their pass defense isn't the best in the league (13th), but it will encourage the Rams to look elsewhere than Holt.

TIGHT ENDS

Start

Alge Crumpler vs. N.Y. Giants -- The only thing stopping Crumpler from being the tight end we're all used to, at least this week, is his recent case of the dropsies. It certainly won't be the Giants defense, who rank 27th against the pass, including 25th against passes to tight ends.

Sit

Jeremy Shockey at Atlanta -- Well isn't that neat and tidy. The Falcons are third in pass defense, and only the Rams (the Rams?) are better at defending passes to the tight end. Maybe Tom Coughlin will say after the game that Shockey was outplayed by the other team's tight end. Wouldn't that make for a fun week?

KICKERS

Start

Nick Novak vs. Tennessee -- Novak is Washington's new kicker thanks to John Hall's season-ending leg injuries. He'll face one of two scenarios: either the Redskins offense plays well, in which case he'll at least kick a handful of PAT's and possibly some field goals, or the Redskins offense will play poorly and he'll kick a few field goals after the defenses forces a bunch of mistakes by the green Titans offense.

Sit

Olindo Mare at N.Y. Jets -- Between Ronnie Brown and the awful Jets run defense, if the Dolphins get into field goal range, they absolutely ought to find the end zone.

DEFENSES

Start

Broncos vs. Oakland -- If you have the Denver defense and don't start them this week, it's like going vegan the day before Thanksgiving. The Broncos haven't been getting a lot of sacks this season, so they haven't been a top fantasy defense, but these are the Raiders we're talking about.

Sit

Eagles at New Orleans -- There's something inexplicable and wondrous about this year's Saints. It's called their offensive line. Somehow, they have the fifth-best offensive Adjusted Sack Rate in the league. Sacks are the cornerstone of fantasy defense; they and the pressure they signify lead to stalled drives, fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. Don't argue with these Saints. They have more good karma than Gandhi.

[juice]

This is ridiculous. imo, you never bench Steve Smith or Torry Holt

[Hache Man]

Originally Posted by juice

This is ridiculous. imo, you never bench Steve Smith or Torry Holt

I agree 100% Juice........