Fantasy Football News (10/20/06)

[Hache Man]

Halfway There
It's Week 7, the halfway point of most fantasy regular seasons. We're at the point where the top teams and players are rising above the crowd. Don't ever bench Donovan McNabb, LaDainian Tomlinson, or Torry Holt (no matter what anyone may have said last week). Outside the top few, as Doug Drinen of Pro Football Reference noted recently in his blog, everyone else is closely bunched. It's among those guys that matchups matter.

Even two players who wind up with the exact same end-of-season score won't score the same amount each week. Picking which mediocre player will score more in a week is a tricky, slippery thing. No one is perfect at it, and the best you can do is collect all the information you can. At least, until you get overloaded with information that points in different directions. When that happens to me, I just go with my gut, and it's those gut picks that are most satisfying when they work out.

Almost every pick references DVOA, Football Outsiders' flagship stat that evaluates players and teams based not on their total output but on the quality of their play compared to the rest of the NFL's quality of play in similar situations. All rankings are in DVOA, not the official rankings based on yards. DVOA is more predictive of future success than anything else out there, and this column applies that predictive power not to figuring out who will win real football games, which is what DVOA was created to do, but to help you win fantasy football games. Footballoutsiders.com has a much more thorough explanation of how DVOA works, and you can also find each team's VOA rankings there.

QUARTERBACKS

Start

Chad Pennington vs. Detroit -- The Lions have the second-worst pass defense in the league so far this season. Assuming his minor leg injury is indeed minor, what more do you need to hear?

J.P. Losman vs. New England -- You never know exactly what you're going to get with Losman, but the New England defense has hardly been what everyone assumes it is. They rank 26th against the pass, including just 24th in Adjusted Sack Rate.

Matt Leinart at Oakland -- His quarterbacks coach is now his offensive coordinator, so don't expect the Cardinals to go into such a conservative shell if they get up on the Raiders, who, after all, are one of the only other teams on the planet that could have lost that game against the Bears.

Sit

Bruce Gradkowski vs. Philadelphia -- The Eagles have the eight-best pass defense and are second in Adjusted Sack Rate, so they'll knock the bloom right off the Gradkowski rose, particularly if they're still smarting after a tough loss to New Orleans.

Michael Vick vs. Pittsburgh -- The Steelers are rounding into form on offense, if the Kansas City game is any indication, but they've been good on defense all season. They rank third against the run, which should really scare Falcons fans, but they're also seventh against the pass.

Eli Manning at Dallas -- This one is a gut pick. Dallas is good against the pass (11th), but they're not overwhelming. But one of the many times that Eli throws a pass that grazes off the outstretched fingertips of a leaping 6'5" Plaxico Burress, Roy Williams is going to come in and do violence to Burress. And that will be the end of that little game.

RUNNING BACKS

Start

DeShaun Foster at Cincinnati -- Foster has the third-most carries of any back in the league so far, and he's 10th in yards. If the Panthers are going to keep running him, he's going to start scoring touchdowns. The Bengals have a run defense ranked 27th, with a penchant for giving up long runs. Those are Foster's specialty, so he has a better chance to see the end zone this week than usual.

Maurice Jones-Drew at Houston -- The Texans have the fourth-worst run defense in the league, and they're dead last in defending against passes to running backs. Drew doesn't catch a lot of passes, but half of his touchdowns have come through the air. Jones-Drew is a risky play as a member of a running back committee, but Jacksonville ought to blow out the Texans, generating a lot of opportunities for both of their running backs.

Tatum Bell at Cleveland -- Bell is another back who, like Foster, has a big disparity between the yards he's put up and the touchdowns he's scored. Part of that is the anemic Denver offense, that has struggled mightily to get into the red zone to enable rushing touchdowns. I expect Bell to score this week against the 25th ranked Cleveland defense, either because the offense gets on track or because Bell breaks a long scoring run.

Sit

Larry Johnson vs. San Diego -- I could wind up with egg on my face again after this pick, but hear me out. Sure, maybe Johnson is "due" to break out and start living up to his preseason expectation. But this isn't a likely weekend for it. The Chargers haven't given up a good day running to anybody this season. And Johnson has had more middling rushing days than good ones. That's because his offensive line ranks 26th in Adjusted Line Yards. Unlike the Bears, the Chiefs are not who we thought they were; they're mediocre on defense, which is better than usual, but they're also mediocre on offense, which is much worse.

Maurice Morris vs. Minnesota -- There's a tremendous urge to play Maurice Morris while Shaun Alexander is out, either because you have him as a handcuff or because you're trying to use him opportunistically. Try to resist. Seattle's offensive line is fourth from the bottom in Adjusted Line Yards; if a Seahawks back is going to excel this year, it'll be because he's an excellent back. Morris isn't bad, but he's not great, and he's up against the sixth ranked Minnesota run defense.

Ahman Green at Miami -- Green is expected to come back from injury this week. Hopefully your fantasy team is not in such a state that you're ecstatic about that. He's up against the fifth ranked Dolphins defense, which has held in check every back it's faced since opening day against Pittsburgh.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Start

Terry Glenn vs. N.Y. Giants -- The Giants rank just 20th against the pass – not awful, just mediocre. They're also just 18th in Adjusted Sack Rate, surprising given how great Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora were last year. That offers some hope that Drew Bledsoe will actually be able to have some success in the passing game; if he does, Glenn is likely to be the recipient, because the Giants are much worse against #2 receivers than #1s.

Deion Branch vs. Minnesota -- He's back, baby. It's hard to say exactly who's the #1 receiver in Seattle because of the Seahawks' embarrassment of riches at the position, but after last week I expect Branch to be Hasselbeck's top target most of the time. The Vikings rank dead last against #1 receivers, so Branch should continue his hot streak.

Reggie Williams at Houston -- Any of the Jaguars could be the superstars of this game, because they get to play the Texans. But Williams is the hottest receiver right now, so be sure to take advantage. He's been the top receiver in Jacksonville's two recent offensive explosions.

Sit

Randy Moss vs. Arizona -- The surprising Cardinals defense is fourth in the league in defense against #1 receivers. Moss is a colossal disappointment this season. Randy Moss or no, he's not helping your fantasy team.

Santana Moss at Indianapolis -- I welcome you to try to divine the mysterious ways of Santana Moss. I hate doing it. He could go off for three touchdowns again, but it's a lot more likely that he'll get about 50 yards on a handful of goofy screens, then watch Clinton Portis take over the game against the league's second-worst run defense.

Andre Johnson vs. Jacksonville -- Johnson ranks fifth in the league in receiving yards, but he only has two touchdowns. The Texans shouldn't be able to move the ball against the Jaguars, and that means Johnson won't have a particularly good chance to score this week either.

TIGHT ENDS

Start

L.J. Smith at Tampa Bay -- The Bucs defense has been surprisingly bad this year, including 26th against passes to tight ends. Smith is active in the Eagles gameplan all over the field, so he could have a lot of productive touches.

Sit

Tony Gonzalez vs. San Diego -- One of the features on the cover of Pro Football Prospectus 2006 was the note, "Tony Gonzalez: His best days behind him?" 12 tight ends (not counting phantom tight end Marques Colston) outrank him in standard fantasy scoring leagues; His best days are behind him. And Sunday against the Chargers, ranked eighth in defending passes to tight ends, will not be a return to them.

KICKERS

Start

Josh Scobee at Houston -- Need a bye week fill-in for Robbie Gould or Jeff Wilkins? Take the guy whose team is playing the Texans.

Sit

Jay Feely at Dallas -- The Cowboys have a legitimate shot to totally flummox the Giants offense, and that would obviously be bad for Feely.

DEFENSES

Cardinals at Oakland -- So you need a bye-week defense to take over for the Bears or Ravens. How about the guys that forced six turnovers against the Bears last week? This is probably a boom or bust pick. The Cardinals will either come out unbelievably angry and fired up, or they'll sink like the Titanic, gashed all the way through and listing precipitously. Depending on what you think of the Cardinals organization and coaching staff (and hats off to Clancy Pendergast, at least, who runs DVOA's 11th ranked defense), you may like them against a Raiders team without any discernible ability to win a football game.

Sit

Redskins at Indianapolis -- The Redskins rank as a below average defense according to every single defensive statistic at Football Outsiders. Logic tells us that this game will turn out like the Jaguars-Redskins game earlier this season. Of course, logic couldn't predict that outcome, so this game will probably be 9-6. If you want to bet on that, play the 'Skins. But I wouldn't.

[Hache Man]

Weak Leagues


This week I'll provide some signs that your league is weak. Then I'll discuss Rex Grossman, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Travis Henry, and Mark Clayton. Finally, we'll hear about a poor owner who had a slight lead going into Monday Night and unfortunately left Grossman in his lineup.
Thought of the Week: Weak Leagues
Commish Sachin: Our leagues are weak.
Me: The leagues are weak? Bleepin' leagues are weak? You're weak!
I use that parody of the best movie ever made, Glenngarry Glen Ross, to illustrate the point that commissioners, whether they realize it or not, have a dramatic impact on the quality of the fantasy leagues they run. If quarterbacks are scoring three times as many fantasy points as running backs and wide receivers, that's a problem. If the league is so shallow that Laurence Maroney is a free agent, that's a problem. If settings are being changed after the draft, that is an enormous problem.
In fairness to my buddy Sachin the Dream, though, it takes more than an adept commissioner to make a high quality league. Most importantly, the owners have to be involved and knowledgeable. Great leagues boast charismatic owners who sling the smack daily, keep the message boards scrolling, and trade like they're on Wall Street.
I'm guessing you pretty much have a handle on the quality of your league, but just in case here are some signs that yours is a weak one:

• During your draft, there was a lengthy debate about whether or not Marshall Faulk was still playing.
• The most recent post on your message board says, "Reminder: The draft will be held on August 30th at 7:00."
• You once asked another owner, "Is Steve Smith a stud or what?" and he responded by declaring his heterosexuality.
• If you were to congratulate another owner by saying, "Wow, you had a phenomenal week!" the response you'd be most likely to hear is, "Oh, did I?"
• The most brazen smack talk line of the year thus far was, "I like my chances."
• When you read that Wali Lundy is back with the first-team offense, you went to pick him up but then thought, "Well, he'll be there tomorrow."
• The second-place team let the computer make his draft picks.
• The third-place team has Domanick Davis in his starting lineup.
• You just got Hines Ward off the waiver wire.
• Multiple teams have three kickers on their roster.
• Someone already traded Peyton Manning for Rex Grossman…and no one protested.
• The most creative team name in the league is "Skins Rule."
• You get bonus points…for anything!
• Passing yards earn the same points as rushing yards and receiving yards…and you get one point per completion.
• There's growing sentiment that the $10 entry fee is too steep.

Got more? Send them to jgangi@rotoworld.com.
Players of Note
Rex Grossman – Is the party over for Grossman? Certainly, there's no sugar coating last week's abysmal performance against Arizona. It's not like he was facing a defense comparable to his own. In fact, going into the weekend, the Cardinals had given up more passing yards than all but a handful of teams. And it's not like his four interceptions were due to tipped passes, or his two fumbles came on corner blitzes from the blind side. On the contrary, his 10.7 passer rating was well earned. When he wasn't underthrowing or overthrowing receivers, he was trying to stuff the ball into traffic. And he did a poor job of protecting the ball while in the pocket, often holding it with just one hand. In other words, his inexperience showed for the first time this season.
Perhaps the pressure of being on Monday night rattled him. Who knows. The question that fantasy owners need answered is will he bounce back? Being that we really haven't had many chances to see how the kid rebounds from adversity, it's tough to say for sure, but right now I think you have to give him the benefit of the doubt being that he's logged five solid performances versus one stinker (albeit a stinker for the ages). While he's certainly prone to making a risky pass here and there, his judgment on the whole is much better than what he displayed on Monday. And his receiving corps is for real. They've blossomed under Wide Receivers Coach Darryl Drake.
Most importantly, though, his upcoming schedule after the bye week is a fantasy fantasy. Seven of his last 10 games happen to be against some of the most porous pass defenses in the league. He faces the Niners (29th in yards allowed per game), Giants (19th), Jets (26th), Patriots (25th), Rams (22nd), Lions (30th), and Packers (32nd). Note that the most enticing of those matchups (the last two) happen to fall in the fantasy playoffs. Are you thinking what I'm thinking? Buy low!
Carson Palmer – Having managed just one 300-yard game on the season, Palmer has been a fantasy disappointment thus far. Will he turn things around? Well, unfortunately, there are legitimate causes for concern. First of all, his pass protection doesn't figure to improve any time soon. Secondly, we can't forget that he's coming off a major knee surgery that usually hampers athletes for more than a year. And perhaps most depressing of all: His upcoming schedule which includes dates with five of the top 10 pass defenses (in terms of passing yards allowed) and no pass D ranked worse than 20th.
On the bright side, the return of Chris Henry and Chris Perry will add more weapons to his already sick arsenal. And he is, after all, Carson Palmer. But consider this a buyer beware for those of you who've been toying with the idea of offering a stud or two for Palmer.
Ben Roethlisberger – Big Ben is finally back! Or is he? Yes, he looked like his old self last week, passing for 238 yards and two scores and, most importantly, no picks. But don't lose sight of his opponent. Kansas City ranks 14th in the league in points allowed per contest, but they would be ranked 25th if not for their shutout of San Francisco. Still, the Roethlisberger who chucked seven interceptions in a three-game span is probably history, and we can expect better performances going forward…especially given his favorable upcoming schedule. Remember, however, that Roethlisberger is one of those "efficient" signal callers who's more valuable in reality than fantasy.
Philip Rivers – It would be easy to chalk up Rivers' early season success to beginner's luck and pawn him off as a sell high candidate. However, experts are raving about the kid. Ron Jaworski lauded his accuracy and vision on NFL Matchup, and Merril Hoge even likened him to Dan Marino.
Travis Henry - Is Henry for real? Well, his performance is not without precedent. In 2002 he piled up over 1700 yards of total offense on 4.4 ypc for Buffalo. In 2003 he rushed for 1358 yards on 4.1 ypc. Then Willis McGahee took his job. Considering that he's still just 27 years old, there's no reason to think he can't put up big numbers all season.
Mark Clayton – A look at Clayton's 101-yard, two touchdown performance would seem to indicate that Kyle Boller targets Clayton's more often than Steve McNair does. Wrong. Both of Clayton's scores (one of which was a 62-yard romp) came on deflected balls that were intended for other receivers. What are the odds of that? Still, Clayton was already impressing this season and may have earned himself more looks with last week's performance.
The Trash Dump
To submit a question or comment to the Trash Dump, email jgangi@rotoworld.com.
Some guy posted this on a FF message board:
"I still have Grossman to go and I am up .5 points. Should I just bench him and secure the win? My opponent has no players left. What if Grossman throws like four picks? That will give me negative points. Has there ever been a case where a QB gave you negative points?"
He left Grossman in the lineup, by the way. Ouch!!
-Cory
Wow, that is a great point. What would most owners have done in that situation? I doubt many would have benched him…especially considering that points are often used as a tie-breaker in the standings. You would never expect your QB to go out and single-handedly cause six turnovers. Well, maybe you would now!
There needs to be some sort of superlative for Chris Henry! If there are not any usual awards there should be one created for this guy. There has to be some sort of crime/drug award that he could battle Nate Newton, Odell Thurman, or even Stephen Jackson for.

• Most likely to end up in prison before the playoffs
• Most likely to be arrested more times than touchdowns scored/games played
• Most likely to shoot an opponent

Something needs to be made!
Jon in Cincy
I think you just did…nice job!
Your defense of Reggie Bush misses one crucial fact. Most leagues don't credit the individual for a return TD. Only the D/ST gets the points. For fantasy purposes Bush has as many TDs as Troy Williamson and Howie Long. None.
-James I mentioned the return TD to illustrate his big-play ability. I can see why you'd be frustrated with his lack of scoring, but denying the kid's talent would be like denying that Tony Kornheiser makes Dennis Miller look good.

[Hache Man]

Dayne's Done
With coach Gary Kubiak's announcement Thursday that Wali Lundy and Samkon Gado will split carries in Week 7, Ron Dayne's chances of being a fantasy asset may have officially come to an end. Dayne has now failed to establish himself as a serious option for consistent carries with the Broncos and Texans within the past year, despite both teams showing a clear interest in him taking hold of a key role.

Instead, Dayne was let go by Denver and now finds himself looking up at Lundy and Gado on Houston's running-back depth chart. Dayne is an intriguing player on paper and seemed likely to thrive in a zone-blocking scheme, but if a running back like him can't make it with Mike Shanahan or Kubiak … well, it's probably just about over. Dayne has averaged 2.9 yards on 57 carries this season, with a long run of 12 yards.

Meanwhile, the Texans splitting carries between two backs is certainly preferable to their splitting carries between three backs, but neither Lundy or Gado is a legitimate RB2 option at this point. As a group, Houston running backs have averaged three yards per carry this season, with Gado (3.6), Lundy (3.4), and Dayne (2.9) each falling to crack the four-yard mark.

While mathematicians everywhere try to calculate exactly how many picks were wasted on Dayne in fantasy drafts over the years, here are some other notes from around football …

* We're three weeks into the Joey Harrington Era in Miami and Daunte Culpepper appears no closer to reclaiming his starting job. Coach Nick Saban said Thursday that Culpepper is "sore" from the rehab program he's currently on and the team's focus is on "trying to get the soreness out so he can do a little bit more football-related stuff." That doesn't sound so bad until you consider that Culpepper's entire job is "football-related stuff."

Saban indicated that there's no timetable for Culpepper's return and seemed to imply that there won't be one until he's much healthier. The Dolphins have a bye in Week 8, which initially seemed to set things up for a Culpepper return in Week 9, but that appears highly unlikely right now. As Saban told reporters Thursday, "He's not even throwing the ball, so there's no telling."

Culpepper can safely be dropped in everything but the very deepest of re-draft leagues and his keeper-league stock is perhaps lower now than when he suffered his season-ending knee injury last year. Meanwhile, coming off back-to-back 40-pass games, Harrington is a surprisingly solid QB2 play against the Packers this week. Seriously. No really, I'm not kidding.

* Coach Romeo Crennel said Thursday that the Browns' Week 6 bye gave Reuben Droughns a chance to finally get healthy after ongoing shoulder problems limited his effectiveness all season. Droughns got off to a brutal start this year, averaging 2.4 yards per carry in the first two games before sitting out Week 3 altogether, but he's been pretty solid since then.

Droughns rushed for 100 yards on the road against Oakland in Week 4 and carried 18 times for 65 yards at Carolina in Week 5. The bye week ruined his mini-roll, but a healthy shoulder should more than make up for it. Droughns is no longer on Cleveland's injury report and figures to get plenty of carries against Denver this week as the Browns try desperately to stay out of obvious passing situations against the Broncos secondary.

Two-Minute Drill: Warrick Dunn is asking for more involvement in the passing game after catching just four balls thus far, but the Falcons don't sound ready to change their approach … Bethel Johnson's presence on the roster as a kick returner is expected to allow Troy Williamson to focus on improving his inconsistent receiver skills … Joe Jurevicius has taken over for Dennis Northcutt as the Browns' No. 2 receiver and could have some fantasy value beginning in Week 8 … Not that they needed the help, but the Redskins' incredibly banged up defense makes it likely that Peyton Manning and the Colts are in for some huge numbers this week … Helping out on kick returns with Koren Robinson suspended may mean less work in the running game for Vernand Morency.

Red Zone: LaMont Jordan returned to practice Thursday after taking a day off to rest his sore back … Chad Johnson (shoulder) has missed two straight practices, but no one in Cincinnati seems to think he's in danger of missing Sunday's game … Jerramy Stevens (knee) indicated that if he gets through Friday's practice, he'll play this week … Kelley Washington (hamstring) is expected to miss several more games, leaving Antonio Chatman and Chris Perry with plenty of snaps … Brian Westbrook (knee) sat out Thursday's practice for the first time all week, but remains probable to play in Week 7 … On the other hand, Donte' Stallworth (hamstring) again looks unlikely to see the field this week … Kevin Jones (hip) was removed from the injury report after practicing Thursday … ESPN's John Clayton reported Wednesday that Trent Green (concussion) could return as soon as Week 9.