Fantasy Football News 10/27/06

[Hache Man]

Great Fantasy Leagues


This week I'll talk about what makes a fantasy league great. Then I'll discuss Michael Vick, Tony Romo, Ahman Green, Wali Lundy, the Arizona defense, and more. After that, I have a slew of great emails you'll want to check out.
Thought of the Week: Great Leagues
Last week, we discussed the characteristics of weak fantasy leagues. So now that we have a clear picture of what we don't want in a league, let's take a look at what we do.
The most important component of a great league is great owners. Owners who live for fantasy football, wheel and deal like Howie Mandel, talk smack like Chad Johnson, and possess no sense of frugality whatsoever.
Beyond that, you need a fair commissioner (a rarer commodity than you might think), sensible league settings, and a good amount of roster depth.
To be more specific, here are some signs of a great league:

• Everyone remembers who won the league last year…because he proudly sports a platinum super bowl ring.
• Guys in your league have been known to take loans off of their 401K plan to cover the league entry fee.
• You're league is so deep that Jeff Feagles is on someone's roster.
• The last place finisher is made to feel more humiliated than Mark Foley.
• Drafts are as much about potato skins and hot wings as they are about picks.
• The owners' wives have formed their own support group.
• The waiver wire receives more claims than All State.
• You get more trade offers than spam about refinancing your mortgage, losing weight, and curing your ED.
• Every team has their own logo and slogan.
• Owners in your league often decline Microsoft Outlook meeting invitations to monitor the AP wire.
• Someone in your league has a Tiffany Simons screensaver.
• When anyone asks "Who?" to an owner in your league, they always respond with "shmandzadeh." (A la Deion Sanders.)
• Several owners in your league have submitted their own personal player ranking formulas to the United States Patent and Trademark Office.
• All of the owners in the league watch every Monday night game…despite Tony Kornheiser.

Got more? Send them to jgangi@rotoworld.com.
Players of Note
Michael Vick – Well, he said he wanted to throw more, and that's exactly what he did. The result was a career-high four touchdown passes and a sarcastic Deion Sanders repeatedly exclaiming, "I thought he couldn't throw!" on NFL Gameday. Don't expect Vick to become Peyton Manning overnight, though. He has a long way to go in terms of completion percentage, for one thing. However, this "breakout" performance should lead to more passing plays and in turn more fantasy value. Because of the Falcons' tremendous ground attack, defenses are forced to put eight men in the box against them. If Vick can take advantage of this, he'll put up some nice numbers.
Tony Romo – Everyone loves the backup QB, but I'm not sold on Tony Romo. He looked more nervous than Matt Saracen out there on Monday night. In fact, the only person in that stadium who seemed more out of place was Tony Kornheiser. Romo threw three picks in one half, and none were pretty. One was about the worst decision I've ever seen: He tried to force a screen pass even though there were three—yes three—defensive players sandwiched between him and the running back. Perhaps Romo will shake off the nerves and emerge as a fantasy option. He certainly has some good skills and great mobility. I'm just not banking on it.
Mark Brunell – Just a heads up that there's talk of Jason Campbell replacing Brunell if the Redskins continue to lose. It's not so much that Brunell would be losing the job as it would be the 'Skins seeing what they have in their young prospect. So, if you have Brunell as your QB2, you might want to invest in an insurance policy.
Ahman Green – So Green got well enough to play and had a very nice Week 7 which included 118 rushing yards and a score. The question with Green is always, how long will he stay healthy? With that in mind, you might want to let him rack up some yards against the Cardinals this week then shop him around.
Wali Lundy – This guy saved my week. I had Frank Gore and Steven Jackson on bye and desperately needed an RB2 to complement Ronnie Brown. Hearing that Lundy was working out with the first-team offense, I picked him up only to find later that Samkon Gado would start. Still, I had no choice but to play Lundy and hope for the best. Well, that's exactly what he gave me when he finally replaced Gado late in the game. 112 total yards and a score. Love that guy! Now, Coach Gary Kubiak is saying Lundy will hopefully be their feature back for a long time to come. With a matchup against Tennessee this week, things are only looking up.
Hines Ward – I don't want to say I told you so, but Ward has hauled in four TDs and 230 yards since I recommended him as a buy low candidate two weeks ago. In fact, he scored one of his three touchdowns last week while running 33 yards on one shoe! Expect Ward to be a top WR from here on in.
Arizona Defense – Guess who leads the league with 20 turnovers? Granted, six came gift wrapped from Rex Grossman, but still! If you need a defense, and the Cardinals are still available, scoop them up.
The Trash Dump
To submit a question or comment to the Trash Dump, email jgangi@rotoworld.com.
"...but denying the kid's talent would be like denying that Tony Kornheiser makes Dennis Miller look good." That's hurtful. Dennis Miller is over your head, apparently.
- Russ
Yes, all guys who try to jam in as many big words and obscure references as possible in an attempt to show how intellectual they are (despite the fact that their rants are obviously pre-prepared) are over my head.
That {Dennis Miller} line is the best line I have read on Rotoworld by far. It's coincidence too that just this past week I was thinking the following while watching Monday Night Football: "PLEASE ESPN … I am begging you… somebody in charge… PLEASE…Bring back Dennis Miller… it's not just the ridiculous comb-over…every time he opens his mouth….aaarrghh!!! I don't care about his fantasy team… I think Lamar Thomas is available!!! Is Howard Cosell alive? Err, doesn't matter…Hire him!!" And, while thinking about how much I hated Dennis Miller's commentary, I determined that this still would be better!!!
-DJR, Pittsburgh, Pa
Kornheiser has quickly elevated to the top of my Most Annoying Media Personalities List. (I'd say "celebrities," but I can't really call him that.) He's right up there with Rod "I'm going to remake every classic song known to man" Stewart, John "King of the cliché and political commentary" Mayer, and Mike "no one cares that I plagiarized" Barnicle (Bostonians know what I'm talking about).
Hilarious column {on weak leagues}. I got into an auto-draft league last-minute with a bunch of folks my dad works with. Didn't realize what I had done until it was too late, but here are some highlights:

• The Titans fan in the league's first pick in the draft was ... Vince Young.
• I ended up with the sixth pick and got LaDanian Tomlinson.
• We start two QBs and only one RB.
• Bonus points are awarded for 100 yards rushing/receiving, 300 yards passing and other milestones. The bonus for 400 yards passing is 25 points. I am not making this up.
• One team has Trent Green in the starting lineup and Greg Jones on his bench.
• One team has Priest Holmes on his roster.
• The aforementioned Titans fan has Kurt Warner in the starting lineup and Steve McNair on the bench.
• This is the latest message board post: "I would like to trade J B Lohsman (QB)(Buffalo) for a good wide receiver. Anybody interested?"

Weak league? You tell me.
- Kevin Gibson, Louisville, Ky.

I enjoyed your article. Here are a couple of additional clues that you may be in a weak fantasy football league:

• Team owners are seen thumbing through two-month old Fantasy Football magazines before making selections on Draft Night.
• Carson Palmer was selected in the first round of this year's draft.

- Chuck Bell, Adel, GA

One of the random Yahoo leagues I was once in actually counted 2 POINTS PER PASS COMPLETION...and POSITIVE points if your quarterback was sacked or threw a pick. Finally someone noticed it and mentioned it to the commish, and his response was "so?"
-Anthony
Yikes!
Speaking of weak leagues and how commissioners can make it better or worse, here is a commissioner I am dealing with. Last year at the end of the season the playoffs were changed from what the website said the format was going to be. Conveniently the only team that made it who wouldn't have made it before was the commissioner. This year I have asked repeatedly how the playoffs are going to be structured and what the payout is going to be and he won't respond. Also, on Sun/Mon the website doesn't allow us to pick up players if they have played, so we post messages who we would like to pick up. After I claimed Maurice Morris he dropped a guy who was on bye to pick up Morris claiming that he already had him, until he realized that there was a time stamp on both the message board and pickups. He also claimed a player to add without dropping anyone while everyone else is required to post a drop along with an add. Then, the last two weeks he adjusted starting lineups after most games were complete saying that the starting lineups were incorrectly put in. So am I crazy and over reacting to this stuff or could this just be the worst commissioner ever?
- Steven Buzzard Oh, he bites alright.

[Hache Man]

Campbell Preparing to Start?
Brad Childress is off to a good start in his first season as Vikings coach, but appears to have some weird issues with the way injury information is presented to the public. Earlier this year he criticized the local media for having the gall to actually report on injuries in the newspaper, saying it put the Vikings at a competitive disadvantage despite every team in the league having every bruise and sprain chronicled on a daily basis.

This week Childress has reportedly turned his attention to coach Bill Belichick, whose Patriots travel to Minnesota Monday night. Instead of accurately ruling Marcus Robinson "out" of the Week 8 matchup with a back injury, Childress has chosen to label Robinson "questionable" in what the Minneapolis Star Tribune calls an effort to "mock" Belichick's tendency to file misleading injury reports.

It's unclear why any coach would want to mess with Belichick at this point, particularly a first-year guy with a non-elite team, and the whole exercise probably won't seem so worthwhile for Childress if the Vikings trot out Travis Taylor and Bethel Johnson as their starting receivers Monday night. Not only is Robinson highly unlikely to play (otherwise known as "out" if you're not trying to be coy), Troy Williamson was downgraded to questionable (the real version) Thursday following last week's concussion.

While Vikings fans consider the logic of tugging on Superman's cape when you lack kryptonite, here are some other notes from around football …

* Jason Campbell taking all the first-team reps in practice this week seemed relatively harmless given that Mark Brunell is banged up and the Redskins are on their bye. However, the NFL Network's Adam Schefter reported Thursday that the team may be using Brunell's injury and the week off as an opportunity to prepare Campbell to take over the starting job as soon as Week 9.

Brunell has surrounded one monster fantasy game with a bunch of clunkers this season and the Redskins are 2-5, so it certainly wouldn't be shocking to see coach Joe Gibbs turn to the 24-year-old former first-round pick. While the bye week gives Campbell added time to prepare, Washington's next three games are hosting Dallas and on the road against Philadelphia and Tampa Bay, so Campbell's fantasy potential would be limited.

* Larry Fitzgerald's recovery timetable keeps getting pushed back, with the latest being coach Dennis Green saying Thursday that Fitzgerald may not return until Week 11. Even with Arizona set to take a Week 9 bye, that would give Bryant Johnson two more games to shine. In the three games since Fitzgerald went down with a hamstring injury, Johnson has 11 catches for 186 yards and a touchdown despite unfavorable matchups.

Not having Fitzgerald alongside Anquan Boldin hurts Matt Leinart's fantasy value, because having two true No. 1 receivers and Johnson as a deep threat is what makes Arizona's passing game potentially outstanding despite a woeful offensive line. However, Fitzgerald or not, Leinart and the Cardinals should do well throwing against Green Bay this week and Johnson especially is an underrated fantasy play.

* Coach Mike McCarthy is reportedly hoping that Greg Jennings can recover from his ankle injury enough to practice Friday, but after sitting out two straight days and being listed as doubtful on the injury report Jennings is a poor bet to play this week. With Koren Robinson suspended and Robert Ferguson on injured reserve, that leaves the Packers incredibly thin at wide receiver for the second season in a row.

Jennings' injury is a shame because he was in the midst of an extremely impressive rookie season, with two 100-yard performances and three touchdowns over a four-game span. If Jennings is indeed out Sunday, former undrafted free agent and recent practice-squad member Ruvell Martin figures to start alongside Donald Driver. While that gives Martin sudden value, more than anything else it makes Driver a very attractive Week 8 play.

Two-Minute Drill: Leon Washington worked with the first-team offense in practice Thursday, further cementing his grip on No. 1 back status in New York … Donovan McNabb is on pace for 4,917 yards, which would be the second-most in NFL history behind Dan Marino's 5,084 yards in 1984 … Jerry Porter is slowly making his way out of coach Art Shell's doghouse, working with the regular offense at practice Thursday … D.J. Hackett has reportedly overtaken Nate Burleson on the depth chart, making him Seattle's third receiver with Bobby Engram (thyroid) likely out this week … After being named the league's most overrated player in a Sporting News poll two years ago, Brian Urlacher has improved to being the second-most overrated player in a recent Sports Illustrated survey of 361 NFL players (Terrell Owens took the top spot). Congats, Brian!

Red Zone: It sounds like LaMont Jordan's (back) status for this week will be determined by whether or not he can practice Friday … Rudi Johnson (back) was added to the injury report as probable Thursday, but no one seems to be concerned … After missing Week 6 with the flu, LenDale White is not on this week's injury report and should resume backing up Travis Henry … Philadelphia reportedly had "perfect attendance" at practice Thursday for the first time in a long time, meaning both Donte' Stallworth (hamstring) and Brian Westbrook (knee) should be good to go in Week 8 … After missing part of practice Wednesday, Ahman Green (hamstring) returned Thursday and looks likely to start this week … DeAngelo Williams (ankle) returned to practice Wednesday, but then had to sit out Thursday and is unlikely to return fully until after Carolina's Week 9 bye … Matt Jones (hamstring) is back to practicing, but reportedly can't run at full speed yet.

[Hache Man]

Sitting Superstars
Every now and then, I'll tell you to sit a superstar. Now, I don't really mean you should sit your superstar. I mean you should temper expectations for him and possibly sit him if you're not in a very deep league. But lately, those superstars have been making me look silly. Two weeks ago it was Torry Holt and Steve Smith, last week it was Larry Johnson. All three went for huge games the week the matchups said they shouldn't. This is information you can use. When you're talking about a fantasy big shot, a tough matchup just means a bigger challenge. I'm going to keep pointing out players who face really tough matchups, even if they are superstars, but keep in mind that there's a developing pattern: when I pick against a superstar, he goes out an proves his superstardom.

Almost every pick references DVOA, Football Outsiders' flagship stat that evaluates players and teams based not on their total output but on the quality of their play compared to the rest of the NFL's quality of play in similar situations. All rankings are in DVOA, not the official rankings based on yards. DVOA is more predictive of future success than anything else out there, and this column applies that predictive power not to figuring out who will win real football games, which is what DVOA was created to do, but to help you win fantasy football games. Footballoutsiders.com has a much more thorough explanation of how DVOA works, and you can also find each team's DVOA rankings there.

QUARTERBACKS

Start

Rex Grossman vs. San Francisco -- You might recall that his last time out, Grossman had kind of a poor game. That probably put a sensible lid on the outrageous hopes and expectations for him, but it doesn't mean he's suddenly turned back into a pumpkin. The Cardinals are a deceptively good defensive team, so Grossman has at least part of an excuse. But the 49ers defense is lousy no matter how you slice it, so Grossman, after the bye, should be back pretty much to his early-season form.

David Carr at Tennessee -- Carr has quietly had a solid fantasy season. This week, the Texans actually play a team that's worse than they are, with a defense nearly as bad as theirs. With the running game on life support (Wali Lundy provided a defibrillator last week but didn't really cure what ails them), the Texans offense runs through Carr.

Brad Johnson vs. New England -- Last week I said to play J.P. Losman because the New England pass defense is so bad. Well, common sense has returned, and it says never to start J.P. Losman. He's a bad quarterback, and no defense can change that. Well, Brad Johnson isn't a bad quarterback, he's simply mediocre in his dotage. The Patriots still have a lousy pass defense, so Johnson should be good to go for about 250-2-1. If you're hurting for a QB, you could do worse.

Sit

Byron Leftwich at Philadelphia -- His ankle is hurting enough that he was awful against the Texans. That's saying something. He might not start, and even if he does he's a terrible play against a blitz-happy Eagles defense.

Brett Favre vs. Arizona -- There are scarcely any words to describe the precipitous fall of the Cardinals starting in the fourth quarter of the Bears game. They have a preternatural ability to lose football games, but that doesn't mean they make the opposing quarterback look good. Cardinals games are turnover carnivals, because their defense is really pretty good, and their offense violates the Geneva Convention because it's such an atrocity. Favre can wing interceptions with the best of them, so beware.

Marc Bulger at San Diego -- The Chargers have a much better pass defense than run defense, including the best Adjusted Sack Rate by a wide margin. Shawne Merriman, in the last game before he loses his steroid appeal and begins his suspension, will be raging after Bulger. The Rams' best bet will be to rely on Steven Jackson, not Bulger.

RUNNING BACKS

Start

Reuben Droughns vs. N.Y. Jets -- Droughns has been a huge disappointment so far this year, but if you have him and ever want to play him, play him against the atrocious Jets run defense.

Warrick Dunn at Cincinnati -- Dunn is fourth in the league in rushing yards but has only two touchdowns. Those kinds of inequalities tend to even themselves out over time, and there's a good chance they'll start to do so in Dunn's case this week. The Bengals have the sixth-worst run defense in the league. It's disguised by their excellent pass defense, but the Falcons aren't afraid to run early, often, and more often against anyone.

Travis Henry vs. Houston -- The Titans this week get the rare pleasure of facing a poorer defense on Sunday than at practice during the week. Henry is their only productive player. If he's your only productive player you could be as bad as the Titans, but he can ably fill a short-term role imitating Clinton Portis or Kevin Jones.

Sit

Dominic Rhodes at Denver -- I can't say the Broncos defense, good as it has been, will totally shut down the Colts offense, good but unspectacular as it has been. But their run defense, at least, can match Indy. One of the Broncos' weaknesses is defending passes to running backs (20th), and Rhodes isn't nearly as good a receiver as Joseph Addai. I think this week starts the inexorable process of turning Addai and Rhodes from committee backs into a starter and a backup.

Frank Gore at Chicago -- The 49ers have two wins. Gore has two 100-yard games. He also has two 20-plus carry games. Gore exemplifies the founding observation of Football Outsiders: you don't run to win, you run when you win. If you're the person who thinks the 49ers are going to win on Sunday, start Gore with enthusiasm.

Cadillac Williams at N.Y. Giants -- The Giants have the #11 overall defense, and that should be enough to keep the Bruce Gradkowski-led Bucs from scoring much. Williams has been running better the last few games, but he can't put his team on his back and carry them against the league's eight-ranked run defense.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Start

Doug Gabriel at Minnesota -- The Vikings have a top-10 pass defense, yet they're the worst in the league defending against #1 receivers. Tom Brady is going to throw the ball, because he's Tom Brady and these are the Partriots, and Gabriel is the best bet to be open.

Eric Parker vs. St. Louis -- Parker is a real sleeper, but he could have a good game this week. He has been a lot better the last few weeks than early in the season, and the perfectly average Rams pass defense ranks 25th in defending against #2 receivers. Bonus if you can count return yardage or touchdowns for the player, because Parker is the Chargers' primary punt returner.

Jerricho Cotchery at Cleveland -- The Cleveland pass defense is bad, and it's worst against #2 receivers. Watch the injury report on Sunday though, because Leigh Bodden might be back for Cleveland, which would take some of the luster off Cotchery.

Sit

Darrell Jackson at Kansas City -- The Chiefs have the best defense in the league against #1 receivers. Jackson will still get his looks, but with Seneca Wallace running the show and Ty Law and Patrick Surtain stealing it, passes intended for Jackson could produce as many completions to Chiefs as to Seahawks.

Hines Ward at Oakland -- The Raiders are seventh in defending passes to #1 receivers – much better than any other category of their pass defense. With Ben Roethlisberger probably still struggling to remember who's president or what happened to hissweet ride, Ward is facing a stacked deck on Sunday.

Marques Colston vs. Baltimore -- With both the best pass defense and the best defense against #1 receivers, the Ravens are a brutal matchup for anyone, let alone a rookie who, if many fantasy league listings are to be believed, is really a tight end playing out of position.

TIGHT ENDS

Start

Eric Johnson at Chicago -- Remember a couple years ago when Johnson was among the best fantasy tight ends in the game? I'm not saying he is now, but he has talent. The one weakness to date on the Bears defense has been defending against the tight end. Johnson's no sure thing, but he has promise as a sleeper pick.

Sit

L.J. Smith vs. Jacksonville -- Smith is listed questionable with a back injury, and the Jags rank 3rd in DVOA against tight ends.

KICKERS

Start

Jeff Reed at Oakland -- Turnovers on defense mean opportunities to score at least field goals on offense. And boy can those Raiders sure commit turnovers.

Sit

Mike Vanderjagt at Carolina -- Tony Romo is going to experience some real growing pains against Julius Peppers and the Carolina defense. Also other pains. What's bad for the offense is bad for the idiot kicker.

DEFENSES

Colts at Denver -- Exploit the AFC rock-paper-scissors game. The Colts always beat the Broncos, who always beat the Patriots, who always beat the Colts. After trading for Booger McFarland, the Colts have an actual defensive tackle on the roster to help stop the run. They'll force Jake Plummer to throw them crazy interceptions, which mean points for you.

Sit

Jaguars at Philadelphia -- The Jaguars are hurting on both sides of the ball. That could mean more turnovers by the offense, and hence more time of possession and points by the Eagles.