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10-28-06, 12:46 PM
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Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak 
Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
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Fantasy Football News 10/28/06
Week 8 Rankings: Hall Pass
Chad Johnson picked the right week to make the cover of Sports Illustrated. He's likely to break out of his season-long slumber because of an inviting matchup: DeAngelo Hall. Hall is proof that hype works. He's made himself into a Pro Bowler by yapping and occasionally dancing like Deion Sanders. Sure, he makes big plays. But Hall is average at best at preventing them, which is the main job of a cornerback. According to FootballOutsiders.com, the Falcons were 22nd in the league against number one wideouts, and that was before shoeless Hines Ward scored three touchdowns on them. Joey Galloway had his best game of the season (9-161-0) against the Falcons. Hall's struggles date back to last year. Former Rotoworld columnist KC Joyner's coverage metrics ranked Hall in the bottom third of the league among cornerbacks. With DE John Abraham and possibly DT Rod Coleman out for the Falcons, Carson Palmer should have time to step into his throws and find ocho cinco. I believe the Cincinnati passing game got their mojo back in the second half against Carolina. D. Fall is unlikely to slow them down. Note: Our NBA draft guide is for sale. I wish I had more time for basketball, but I end up relying on Dr. A to help me get ready for the season. Apparently it's impossible to draft Josh Smith too early. Okay, on to the Week 8 rankings ... Week 8 Quarterbacks
QB Update: Charlie Batch is off. Damon Huard moves way down. I doubt he plays, but I don't trust him now if he does. Brodie Croyle will make Andrew Walter look good. Vince Young moves up after more consideration. Byron Leftwich is off the list, but I don't see Garrard as anything more than an average QB2 because of the matchup. And yes, I'd play Vick over Manning this week. Got a few emails on that one. QB Notes: In standard scoring leagues, Donovan McNabb has 201 fantasy points, 41 ahead of the next best quarterback (Peyton Manning). He's beating the rest of the position by 30%! To put this in context, subtract 41 fantasy points from Peyton and we end up over 20 spots down in the quarterback rankings between Damon Huard and Brad Johnson. McNabb's insane league yards-per-attempt (8.9) will have to dip, but his running resurgence will keep him the fantasy MVP at year's end. McNabb is on pace for his most rushing yards since 2002. Donte' Stallworth's return this week should help McNabb put up big numbers against a slumping Jaguars defense. I have nowhere else to put a note about Ronde Barber, so I'll include it next to his foil, Donovan McNabb. It's amazing that Barber has escaped criticism for his effort on Brian Westbrook's go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. Barber jogged towards Westbrook on the play, clearly thinking Westbrook would get tackled. When that didn't happen, Barber made zero effort to tackle Westbrook, then made a lame effort to trip him after he went by. He whiffed. Barber must have been tired, but that was a terrible display in a huge spot. Seneca Wallace looked decent last week despite his poor numbers. One of his interceptions came on a meaningless throw as time was expiring. If not for two Darrell Jackson mistakes (a drop on a possible score and a play where he went down before the first down marker), Wallace's numbers would have been passable. I have immense faith in Mike Holmgren and Seattle's receivers. While Wallace isn't a great play this week, he will be useful when the Seahawks play more NFC West opponents. Texans coach Gary Kubiak has David Carr playing like an accurate version of Jake Plummer, circa 2004-2005. That's a compliment. Carr is always willing to throw check-down passes to tailbacks, and that's why he's leading the NFL by far with a 70.3% completion percentage. There will be open receivers against Tennessee this week and Carr will find them, making him an excellent start. Byron Leftwich's ankle was clearly bothering him last week. He was wildly inaccurate the entire day. The performance has led to David Garrard getting half the snaps at practice this week and it wouldn't surprise if Garrard gets the call this week while Leftwich heals. Garrard can score with his legs, but would be an average option against Philadelphia. Philip Rivers shows a great ability to avoid the pass rush. He's no Michael Vick, but he's quicker than a Tom Brady and has great pocket presence. He knows where the pressure is coming from very well for a young quarterback. All the defensive problems for San Diego should help Rivers because the team will need to score to win. Look for the Steelers to stomp the Raiders. If they get a lead, they won't pass much. So Charlie Batch and Ben Roethlisberger are only average options. I included Batch here in case he plays. I'm not off the Matt Leinart bandwagon just because of one game. There isn't a better matchup than the Packers for opposing quarterbacks. Week 8 Running Backs
RB Update: Larry Johnson moves down because of the Croyle factor, but you can't bench him. LaMont Jordan should start for the Raiders, but Justin Fargas will also be a factor. Neither player is a good option against an ornery Steelers team. LenDale White looks like he'll backup Travis Henry. He could get more of the carries than most people think. RB Notes: In an unpredictable season, LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson have lived up to their top-three draft status. How they are getting their numbers is the surprising part. Four yards-per-carry is usually a benchmark for an average running back, but both runners are below the mark. In 2006, the best running backs are the best receiving backs. Eight of the top ten standard scoring fantasy backs have more than 200 yards through the air. Tomlinson and Johnson are studs because they score and they catch. It doesn't just seem like running backs are having bigger years catching the ball. From 2002-2005, there were only 12 running back seasons with more than 550 receiving yards. Seven running backs are on pace to better that mark this year, including the big two. Players like Rudi Johnson, Willie Parker, and Tatum Bell will have a hard time cracking the top ten unless they start catching the ball. Minnesota is one of the toughest defenses to run on in football. That makes Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney shaky RB2 plays. Maroney is the better bet of the two this week. He's going back to Minnesota and his speed plays better on turf. Maroney took a lot of ribbing from teammates this week after getting caught from behind on a long kick return in Buffalo. The rookie seemed gas after making a handful of moves. Chester Taylor looked fresh after the bye week. He broke tackles and made Seattle miss all game, not just on his 95-yard run. The Patriots are one of the best teams at stopping the run, so don't expect another huge effort on the ground this week. Taylor is more likely to break a big play through the air. Maurice Morris is too patient. He waits for blocks that never develop. He has a decent matchup against the Chiefs, but Seneca Wallace's presence at quarterback makes Morris an average flex play at best. Shaun Alexander is coming back week and Morris hasn't proven to a great replacement in fantasy leagues or real life. Wali Lundy's big day was impressive because Samkon Gado played nearly the entire first and third quarters. Gado went into that game with a legitimate chance to take hold of the starting job. Now coach Gary Kubiak says Lundy will be the starter, "this week and hopefully for a long time to come." Watching the tape, it was easy to see why Kubes was so excited. Lundy occasionally shaked and baked in the open field, but he hit the hole hard when one was available. Lundy is a speed threat, but he stayed in near the goal-line and broke a few tackles. It remains to be seen if Houston's run-blocking can improve as much as their pass blocking, but they are on the right track. The Colts have tough matchups for the first time in a while. It will be interesting to see if Joseph Addai starts taking over the bulk of the carries. He's undeniably outplayed Dominic Rhodes, but neither player is a good fantasy option this week. I hate to project game scores too much, but the Raiders are unlikely to hang with an irate Steelers team for long. That makes LaMont Jordan's status this week fairly irrelevant. I'll move Justin Fargas up on the weekend update if Jordan looks like he's out. It's Week 8 and I should be used to this season. But it was hard ranking Leon Washington, Wali Lundy, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Travis Henry so high without thinking how strange that list would have looked a few months ago. Washington, Henry, and Drew were the third most popular running backs on their own team back then. Other than Drew, this group has good matchups this week to exploit. Don't be shy about using Lundy. Drew is the rare sort of backup who is a third-down back and a goal-line back. Texans defenders agreed after last week's game that Drew was one of the hardest players to tackle all season. People usually think short-yardage runners have to be big like Jerome Bettis. But Drew is proof that shorter players with thick midsections can be highly effective. This kid gets leverage by getting low and blowing up defenders. He burrows into the end zone and Fred Taylor isn't going to score often because of it. The rookie's passing game skills make him a complete player. Drew hasn't been a workhorse back, dating back to UCLA, but he has all the skills to be a top-15 player next season if given the opportunity. He's the 2007 Frank Gore. Fred Taylor is quietly having a solid season so the Jaguars don't need to overload Drew yet. He's healthy and running hard at age 30, hoping for one last big contract. It won't happen, but he's playing far than other veteran running backs like Edgerrin James and Jamal Lewis. Week 8 Wide Receivers
WR Update: The Croyle effect continue to tear through the goal line stand update like a forest fire. Eddie Kennison gets a big downgrade and Samie Parker gets the boot. Anquan Boldin moves down slightly, as does Reggie Williams because of the change to David Garrard. I can't see playing Troy Williamson even though he's expected to suit up. You don't want to get a 0 waiting for a Monday night game time decision. Matt Jones moves up a bit because we know he's playing. Marcus Robinson is off the list and is unlikely to play. My favorite repeat offender Chris Henry is an option again, but not a great one in his first game back. WR Notes: Greg Jennings is out of the rankings for now. He's listed as doubtful. I don't think his injury particularly helps Donald Driver. Driver is a possession receiver who struggles more than ever to get deep. More attention paid to him won't help. I'm sticking with Reggie Williams this week. Byron Leftwich was simply not himself against Houston, throwing wildly inaccurate passes because of his ankle injury. If David Garrard gets the call, Williams will be downgraded, but he's still a fine WR3 option at worst. Reggie Brown owners should be disappointed to see Donte' Stallworth back in the lineup. Brown hasn't been held under 70 yards since Stallworth got hurt. His six touchdowns put Brown in the top-five fantasy wideouts. He's still an every-week play in formats that use three wideouts even with Stallworth back. Brown has emerged as McNabb's top big-play threat, averaging over 19 yards-per-catch. Other YPC stars include Bernard Berrian (21.1), Antonio Bryant (19.8), Reggie Wayne (18), and Greg Jennings (18). These players are less valuable in points-per-reception leagues. It pains me to say so, but Bruce Gradkowski is beginning to limit the Bucs offense. Defenses don't respect his ability to complete passes deep and are bum-rushing the line of scrimmage. Gradkowski has done a fantastic job avoiding big mistakes and looks like a great prospect, but he's the least efficient quarterback in football right now. His 4.98 yards-per-attempt is dead last in the NFL, behind even Vince Young and Chris Simms. Michael Clayton isn't a fantasy option and Joey Galloway is a shaky play. I'd bench them both this week. Ernest Wilford is one of the most disappointing fantasy players of this season. He's a tough receiver and can rebound, but his lack of speed and poor hands are a bad combination. He hasn't taken advantage of Matt Jones' injury. Troy Williamson has a solid matchup if he can stay healthy. The Patriots can be beaten through the air and Marcus Robinson's injury should mean more targets. Ty Law is washed up. The Chargers picked on him mercilessly last week. He's too slow to stick with Keenan McCardell, which is a bad sign. Law will be covering Darrell Jackson and old friend Deion Branch, so look for the Seahawks to attack him. Malcolm Floyd has been a revelation for the Chargers. He's not a fantasy option yet, but he's making Vincent Jackson owners in dynasty leagues depressed. Week 8 Tight Ends
TE Update: Tony Gonzalez moves down, but not far enough to bench him unless you own two TE1s. Klopfenstein and David Martin move up after looking at the matchups some more. TE Notes: Antonio Gates vs. the Rams is a battle of heavyweights. Really. St. Louis is the best team in the league at stopping tight ends this season. There is no chance owners should ever sit Gates, especially when he's getting 15 targets like last week against the Chiefs. He makes at least one jaw-dropping play a week. Gates would make my top-five list of players who can make a catch in traffic, a topic I'll discuss later this week in the Rotoworld roundup column. See how I worked that in? In the same game, I like Joe Klopfenstein to have his best game of the year. San Diego's safeties can't cover and the rookie has steadily become more of a factor in the passing game. He's a deep threat. Jason Witten's stats will be helped by Tony Romo entering the lineup. The Cowboys won't feel the need to max protect as much. L.J. Smith missed practice Wednesday. Keep an eye on him this week, but nothing serious was reported after last week's game. Week 8 Kickers
Week 8 Team Defense
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10-28-06, 12:51 PM
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Moderator
Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak
Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
Location: Orlando, Florida
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Re: Fantasy Football News 10/28/06
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10-28-06, 09:31 PM
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#3 |
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Moderator
Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak
Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 52,423
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Re: Fantasy Football News 10/28/06
Last Minute Decisions Each week, Last Minute Decisions is your final stopping point before setting your lineups Sunday morning. I'll tell you Game-Time Decisions to watch, provide matchup rundowns you won't find anywhere else, and focus on some situations not to underestimate. Make sure to check the site early Sunday for the latest news around the NFL. Important Week 8 Game-Time Decisions Damon Huard hurt groin practicing Thursday, Brodie Croyle on deck DeAngelo Williams returned Friday, seems unlikely to play 'til Week 10 Greg Jennings doubtful but a game-time call according to Mike McCarthy Troy Williamson, Travis Taylor both limited Friday, explore other options Matt Jones won't be 100% if he goes, wait 'til Week 9 vs. TEN to use him David Givens would play with a finger splint, not a quality fantasy option Anquan Boldin late addition to the injury report, "virtually certain" to go LaMont Jordan practiced Friday but don't rely on him for afternoon game Jeb Putzier listed as doubtful, Owen Daniels a fantasy play to consider Ben Roethlisberger expected to play but a poor start at OAK (believe it) Brian Westbrook, Donte' Stallworth, L.J. Smith trio is set to play vs. JAX Laveranues Coles will play, should excel versus disastrous CLE secondary Steve McNair upgraded to probable, not worth a roster spot in most leagues Dennis Northcutt probably won't go after missing practice portions all week Leigh Bodden had a high ankle sprain, Jets air game could take off @ CLE Richard Seymour status uncertain, Jarvis Green behind him on depth chart Rod Coleman, Jonathan Babineaux ATL interior d-line should be intact Kynan Forney Matt Lehr suspended, ATL interior o-line not looking good Sam Madison use Michael Clayton if Madison is among Giants' inactives Artis Hicks, Marcus Johnson Vikings may be without offensive line starters Adewale Ogunleye practiced all week, could lose snaps to Mark Anderson Dawan Landry probable despite missing portions of practice all week long Gerard Warren, Al Wilson likely to play, Colts RBs set to struggle @ DEN Warren Sapp missed Thursday and Friday, Willie Parker has great matchup Kenechi Udeze missed late-week practices, rookie Ray Edwards set to start Pisa Tinoisamoa has dislocated elbow, broken hand, but still slated to play Casey Hampton Steelers Pro Bowl nose guard doubtful to play at Oakland Already Ruled Out for Week 8 Larry Fitzgerald return Week 11? Bryant Johnson a great start @ GB Matt Hasselbeck Seneca Wallace will start for next three-to-four weeks Antonio Chatman placed on I.R., Chris Henry reclaims No.3 receiver role Byron Leftwich David Garrard to start Sunday but probably not long term Bobby Engram D.J. Hackett will be Seattle's third wideout at Kansas City Brandon Stokley can't get healthy, has been on these lists every week Trent Green Chiefs to rush Green back with Damon Huard on the mend? Shaun Alexander should have o-line fully intact if he returns in Week 9 Curtis Martin, Priest Holmes final PUP decisions still two weeks away Marcus Robinson out despite "questionable" tag, may miss several weeks Aaron Brooks Andrew Walter appears likely to keep starting job regardless Mike Brown hard-hitting Todd Johnson takes over as Bears strong safety John Abraham out 4-6 weeks after groin surgery, Chauncey Davis to start Levi Jones Bengals suddenly pass protecting despite loss of left tackle Shaun Phillips SD won't be minus he and Shawne Merriman simultaneously Matt Lepsis Dwight Freeney should tally first sack of the season Sunday Bob Sanders Marlin Jackson appears likely to make starting debut at safety Montae Reagor likely out for '06, one more Colts injury could spell disaster Osi Umenyiora Mathias Kiwanuka to face old B.C. bud Jeremy Trueblood Karlos Dansby, Kendrick Clancy hurts to say: Ahman Green is a solid start Floyd Womack, Sean Locklear Maurice Morris is set to disappoint again Brian Kelly keep new starter Juran Bolden in mind for match-up purposes Marcus Stroud all Eagles skill players are safer fantasy starts this week Mike Doss rookie Antoine Bethea to be Indy's strong safety going forward LaVar Arrington could be cut in 2007, Carlos Emmons now Giants' SLB What Is Up with Antonio Bryant? In normal fantasy leagues, Bryant seems barely worthy of a roster spot. Doubled constantly after a hot start, the once-emerging star has been held to an average of 42.5 yards in his past three games. Similar to how the Jets made Mike Furrey a Week 7 fantasy stud by diverting all their attention to Roy Williams, teams would rather let Arnaz Battle and his balky knees beat them than put Bryant in single coverage. And San Francisco hasn't been able to counter it by spreading out a defense. The Niners' third receiver is Bryan Gilmore, a career special teamer. Third-rounder Brandon Williams has been a big disappointment. But a promising four-catch, 78-yard outing against the Chargers in Week 6 and upcoming matchups with Chicago and Minnesota (both ranked near or at the the league's basement against No. 1 receivers) could bring Bryant back to near-fantasy starter status. Don't expect him to be a non-factor all season; the Niners will be playing from behind often going forward. Week 8 Matchups to Exploit/Avoid Jaguars @ Eagles Game Time: 12:00 CT/1:00 ET Last week, Ernest Wilford appeared on paper a very solid WR3 play and an excellent bet to score. An erratic and injured Byron Leftwich targeted him frequently in the early going before a late-game fumble that likely landed Wilford in Jack Del Rio's doghouse. He finished with a pair of catches. This week, there's not an attractive skill player on the Jags. Eagles nickel corner Roderick Hood is back. Stalwart end Darren Howard is healthy. Fred Taylor is losing goal-line carries to Maurice Jones-Drew. Matt Jones is expected to play and will steal looks from Wilford and Reggie Williams. With Big Byron out, David Garrard is set to struggle against an Eagles defense that leads the league in sacks. Expect Philly to control this game and bench your Jaguars in Week 8 On the other side, Jacksonville's defense is in serious trouble. After allowing 27 points to the Texans in a bad Week 7 loss, the Jags will be without interior stopgap Marcus Stroud and nickel back Terry Cousin. Mike Peterson and Reggie Hayward's season-ending injuries have caught up to Jacksonville. The Jaguars' defense is perennially tough, but this is not a week to sit Donovan McNabb. Fantasy football's 2006 MVP by far, McNabb faces a defense that is shuffling bodies and could very well slip into the bottom half of the league's rankings down the stretch. Get all your Eagles going against the Jags. Buccaneers @ Giants Game Time: 12:00 CT/1:00 CT Brian Kelly is officially done for the season. His replacement, Juran Bolden (questionable, hip), is not only banged up himself, but he's quite prone to giving up big plays. At 6-3, Bolden's size makes him the obvious choice to work on 6-5 Plaxico Burress in primary coverage. While Plax himself may be at less than 100 percent with a minor heel injury, expect big numbers from Burress against Bolden after a quiet second half in Week 7 at Dallas On the other side, Michael Clayton may have emerged as Bruce Gradkowski's favorite target. After Clayton stretched for the game-winning TD in Week 6 over Cincinnati, he proceeded to lead Tampa wideouts in Week 7 receiving, while Joey Galloway was held without a catch. Clayton fits the mold as a star target underneath, where Gradkowski specializes. Neither LaVar Arrington nor Osi Umenyiora will be around to pressure the rookie QB and with Sam Madison unlikely to play after missing portions of practice all week, usual backup R.W. McQuarters is expected to start. Clayton gets a much more favorable matchup and is worth using this week as a WR3. Jets @ Browns Game Time: 3:15 CT/4:15 ET The forecast for Cleveland Browns Stadium on Sunday is windy. It's going to be cold; the high is 50 and by late afternoon the temperature will be in the low 40s. For two teams that can't stop the run, that's great news for their running backs. Reuben Droughns is expected to now be used consistently in short-yardage situations under new offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson. Possible goal-line vulture Lawrence Vickers is questionable and missed practices this week. Droughns is a very solid flex play on Sunday On the other side lies the marquee fantasy play. Diminutive rookie Leon Washington has clearly overtaken Kevan Barlow to be the Jets' top tailback, starting the past two games and breaking out in Week 7 with 137 total yards and two scores . Washington was an NFL-ready receiving back coming out of Florida State. He fell to the fourth round because family-related issues, star recruit Lorenzo Booker, and minor injuries cost him playing time. It was not for a lack of talent. And now having emerged as the primary ball carrier in New York's backfield, Washington's fantasy value is soaring. The likely absence of both Browns starting cornerbacks will keep Cleveland's safeties well off the line of scrimmage and a proficient outside runner like Washington should capitalize. Do Not Underestimate The Long-Term Fantasy Implications of This Game: 49ers @ Bears Game Time: 12:00 CT/1:00 ET Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner says Cedric Benson will be more involved early in this week's game versus San Francisco. My educated guess is that the Bears know they'll win this game, so why not give Benson a shot? He clearly isn't happy about his backup role. Maybe to get him some confidence and lift his spirits against a below-average run defense, Benson will get 10-12 carries. For a week, the only thing this will hurt is Thomas Jones' fantasy value in a fine matchup. But Jones owners, be not afraid. Play Jones as a flex, watch Ced-Ben scrounge together another Curtis Enis-like 3.0 yar |
