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11-04-06, 07:21 PM
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Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak 
Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
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Fantasy Football News 11/04/06
Rankings: Weekend Update
In the NFL, almost every season is a contract year. With non-guaranteed contracts, a player's job or role is only as secure as his last 16 games. With nearly half of the 2006 season in the books, some of fantasy football's most formerly promising stars are on the hot seat. Before we get to the Week 9 rankings and notes, here's a look at which players need a big second half to 2006 to secure their jobs next season (and maintain their keeper league value). Ronnie Brown, Dolphins - Is he pretty good or is he special? With everyone's favorite CFL superstar possibly returning, Brown needs to prove he's the alpha dog fast. Michael Clayton, Bucs- The quarterback woes haven't helped, but Clayton is testing Jon Gruden's patience. Fred Taylor, Jaguars- Taylor wants more money and the Jaguars seem ready to let him go. If Taylor can stay healthy and keep performing well, another time will sign him for committee duty. Tatum Bell, Broncos - Numbers be damned, Mike Shanahan doesn't seem truly convinced that Bell is the guy. If Bell's turf toe doesn't go away, Shanny could go looking for a runner in next year's draft, just like in 2006 when he had eyes for Laurence Maroney. LaMont Jordan, Raiders - As a Jordan owner in my dynasty league, this year has been jarring. The Oakland organization has reportedly soured on him, and he has to get his mojo back in the second half to secure his future. DeShaun Foster, Panthers - His contract makes him easy to cut. That's probably what will happen if Foster doesn't turn his season around. Travis Henry, Titans - He's unlikely to be back with the Titans, so Henry is playing for a chance to start elsewhere. I doubt he gets one. Drew Bennett, Titans - Remember him? Bennett is going to be an unrestricted free agent. Some team will give him quality starter money. Leaving Tennessee would probably help his fantasy value. Willie Parker, Steelers - Pittsburgh's offense revolves around a punishing running game. FWP is putting up big fantasy stats, but he's averaging 3.8 yards-per-carry and isn't a great short-yardage runner. A big second half would secure his starting gig long-term. Randy Moss, Raiders - His keeper league owners should root for Moss to complain his way out of Oakland. That may be his only chance for stardom next season. Speaking of which Jake Plummer, Broncos - Now starting at quarterback for your 2007 Oakland Raiders. Samie Parker, Chiefs - The third-year plateau doesn't quite have the same ring to it. Ernest Wilford, Jaguars - See Samie Parker. Wilford's long-term fantasy upside is diminished with Reggie Williams clearly ahead of him. Doug Gabriel, Patriots - With a strong second half, Gabriel will be on his way to becoming Tom Brady's favorite receiver. That can be a lucrative gig; just ask Deion Branch. Rod Smith, Broncos - It's hard to imagine the Broncos cutting Smith, but it's also hard to imagine them starting Smith next year if he doesn't snap out of it. Charlie Frye, Browns - He has to show progress down the stretch to remain Cleveland's quarterback of the future. Cedric Benson, Bears - The coaching staff can say how confident they are in Benson all they want. Playing time would prove it. J.P. Losman, Bills - Buffalo is using the 2006 season to evaluate Losman. Dick Jauron blew his other shot as a head coach waiting for Cade McCown to develop and isn't likely to make the same mistake twice. Losman was drafted by the last Bills organization. Note: A few sites have gone pay recently with their depth charts, but ours will always be free. We believe our redesigned depth charts are the best in the business, so check them out if you haven't this season. Week 9 Quarterbacks
QB Update: Byron Leftwich is off the list, although Jack Del Rio said he would be the team's starter when he's healthy. It's a confusing situation to say the least. I moved Tony Romo up a spot because Terrell Owens stayed awake for some team meetings this year. QB Notes: Herm Edwards is making sure there is no quarterback controversy in Kansas City. Trent Green will start when ready. I'm not sure he could possibly play better than Damon Huard. Huard improves every week and would be headed to the Pro Bowl if the season ended today. He throws great touch passes and knows which matchups to exploit. After the Seahawks took the lead with less than five minutes left, Huard calmly threw a gorgeous 51-yard pass down the sideline to Eddie Kennison. In my notebook, I wrote "game over." Of course, I was watching NFL Replay. Huard is a good start this week against the Rams, who are giving up yards in bunches. Seneca Wallace has a howitzer. He wasn't always accurate, especially on timing throws, but Wallace showed why Mike Holmgren stuck with him so long. Wallace delivered some incredibly difficult passes, but misfired on easy ones. He may be faster than Michael Vick. A running game would certainly help Wallace, but he'll be a decent fantasy option next week against the Rams. A lot of readers have asked if Tom Brady will be a QB1 after his big Monday night game. Why not? The Patriots won't go nearly as pass-wacky most weeks and Brady should only be average in yardage. But his receivers have turned the corner and the Patriots are a high-scoring team. Brady is third in the NFL in touchdowns and should stay there. New England likes to throw inside the ten. This is a sneaky tough matchup for Philip Rivers. Cleveland's defense is second in the league in yards-per-attempt despite all their injuries. Romeo Crennel is slowly turning around the whole defense, but their offense is lagging behind. The Browns haven't taken steps forward largely because of Charlie Frye. He is still making too many rookie throws into heavy coverage. He's inconsistent and the Browns will probably get competition for him next year if he doesn't improve in the second half of the year. A tough schedule won't help. A lot of Michael Vick owners drafted him as a QB2. Rotoworld colleague Rocco DeMaro, for instance, owns both Vick and Marc Bulger. He picks the wrong one to play each week and there's an easy solution: It's time to deal one of them. Vick's rushing stats make him a steady option. The possibility that he'll keep his passing improvement rolling makes him impossible to bench. This week's game against Detroit should be another scoring bonanza. Week 9 Running Backs
RB Update:I'm moving LaMont Jordan up a bit despite my better judgement. He should get the start Monday night. Justin Fargas moves down slightly. Mike Bell moves up significantly based on the news that he should start. In the end, he's starting for the most consistent rushing team in football. Tatum's presence and the matchup make him a risky play, but he's a great flex option at worst. Tatum moves way down. I wouldn't consider him. Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, and Dominic Rhodes are all expected to play. RB Notes: I apologize for suggesting to trade Larry Johnson a few weeks back. Rotoworld Grand Poohbah Rick Cordella reminds me about every time LJ obliterates another defender. The guy just has ridiculous vision and toughness. Those matchups against San Diego and Seattle didn't prove too difficult in hindsight, although LJ is somehow still only tied for 37th in the NFL (out of 41) in yards-per-carry. Herm Edwards is in danger of overworking Johnson after his 39-carry outing last week. LJ is on pace for 392 carries and 454 touches. This isn't great news for keeper league owners. Johnson showed clear signs of fatiguing in last week's game. He gained 24 yards during his last 17 carries. That's Edge-like. I'd be more concerned about LJ this week if he wasn't playing St. Louis. They shouldn't offer much resistance. I can hear the Jamal Lewis bandwagon forming, especially once he puts up solid numbers against the weak Bengals rush defense this week. Let's not get carried away with his outing against New Orleans. He averaged 3.5 yards-per-carry, which brought down his season average. The one thing Lewis has in his favor is Brian Billick's devotion. Despite our free Musa pleas, Billick is loyal to Lewis because of his 2000 season. That's unlikely to change while Baltimore is winning. Corey Dillon is a better option this week than Laurence Maroney, but I like them both against Indy's rush defense. The Colts have problems with bruisers. The schedule has everything to do with Green Bay's resurgence in the standings. But their improvement in the running game is real (and it's spectacular). Ahman Green and Vernand Morency were running through lanes the size of Mike McCarthy's head the last few weeks because of their zone blocking system. The Packers rotated Green all game last week and I'd expect the same approach all season to keep him healthy. He's a good play this week against the Bills, who are soft against the run. A lot of readers want to know if Willie Parker will play more on third downs with Verron Haynes out. I'm not so sure. Parker gets a big workload rushing and I suspect Najeh Davenport will play more. If Pittsburgh's season spirls out of control, I'd also keep an eye on their new bruising runner John Kuhn. If FWP got hurt, Kuhn could get called on late in the year ala Parker in 2004. Week 9 Wide Receivers
WR Update: I omitted Greg Jennings on Thursday because I didn't think he would play. Then he returned to practice for two days and it looked like he would. Now reports out of Green Bay suggest he's shaky at best. It's a great matchup if he starts, but he won't be 100%. He's on the board now, but I can't rank him too high. .. Santana Moss moves off the list. Chris Henry moves up because I like the matchup against Baltimore, who keeps giving up big plays. Terry Glenn and Joe Horn both move down because they aren't 100%. Check back Sunday to make sure they even play. Antwaan Randle El makes his first appearance of the season. The Jaguars all move down because I don't trust Garrard throwing the ball. Amani Toomer moves up because Plaxico Burress looks like he'll be out. I'll leave Plax on the list as if he's starting. He probably won't. Check back Sunday. Tim Carter is also on the list in case Burress sits out. WR Notes: I mentioned this in Waiver Wired, but the Chiefs are 32nd in the league in defender receivers off the bench. Their nickel and dime defenders are weak, a hangover from the Vermeil era. It's a good matchup for Kevin Curtis this week. He's been coming on lately. The Chiefs cornerbacks in general seem overaggressive and bite on a lot of pump and go's. Marc Bulger is just the man to exploit it. Look for big numbers from all the Rams this week. Ty Law followed up my negative rant about him last week with his worst game of the year against Seattle. Teams are picking on him. Joe Jurevicius didn't have a catch last week, but he was targeted in the end zone. I wouldn't give up on him just yet because he has potential to score 3-5 times the rest of the season. Darrell Jackson is a body catcher, not a hands catcher. He seemed to have trouble with the velocity on Seneca Wallace's ball. D-Jax is consistent in fantasy leagues, but he's misguided with all his contract complaints. If he left Seattle, his production would fall off a cliff. The Ravens secondary has given up big plays in bunches recently. T.J. Houshmandzadeh owned Chris McAllister last season and the next big play Ed Reed makes this season will be his first. If the Bengals can somehow protect Carson Palmer, this isn't a terrible for Housh, Henry, and Ochienta Cinco. Henry especially could exploit Baltimore's weak depth. Lee Evans will probably draw Al Harris all game, which won't help his chances for a huge day. I think the Bills will find a way to get him matched-up against other members of Green Bay's thin secondary, though. Santana Moss is less than 100% and was shut down by Terrence Newman in Week 2. Week 9 Tight Ends
TE Notes: I'll admit it. Sometimes I pick players and fixate on them a bit. David Martin is that guy for me right now at tight end in a season with very few surprises at the position. Martin could win the Boo Williams/Zach Hilton memorial award as a random second-half superstar because the Packers actually design plays for him. He was the team's primary option on a handful of plays last week and came through. Greg Jennings returning to the lineup wouldn't help his value, though. Kris Wilson is another favorite of mine, but it's hard to recommend someone starting at fullback. He broke a few tackles last week and had a catch called back by penalty. .. Randy McMichael appears to have a tough matchup, but the Bears are actually one of the worst teams in the league defending tight ends, according to FootballOutsiders.com. Herm Edwards is making an effort to get Tony Gonzalez singled against linebackers and it's paying off. The improving Chiefs tackles are helping Gonzo get out in coverage more. He's not done as a fantasy starter just yet. Week 9 Kickers
Week 9 Team Defense
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11-04-06, 07:24 PM
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#2 | ||||||||||
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Moderator
Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak
Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
Location: Orlando, Florida
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Re: Fantasy Football News 11/04/06
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