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Moderator
Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 58,015
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Early Game Recaps
Dolphins 31, Bears 13 Game Recap by: Scott Morrow The Big Story If being on the brink of losing to the Arizona Cardinals didn't do it, the Chicago Bears took it upon themselves to prove their mortality on Sunday. Just like that game in the desert, the Bears turned the ball over six times. But an outrageous comeback did not ensue, and the Monsters of the Midway suffered their first defeat of the season by not being able to get out of their own way. Beyond the Box Score Don't go grabbing Joey Harrington (16-32, 137 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs) off the wire just yet. Fumbles by Bears PR Devin Hester and WR Justin Gage along with a Rex Grossman interception set up Harrington's touchdowns with drives of six, 12 and 24 yards. Harrington did his best to hand momentum back to Chicago, and his third touchdown pass could just have easily been intercepted by CB Charles Tillman. Ronnie Brown rushed for a career-high 157 yards on 29 carries, including eight gains of nine or more yards and three for 24 or better. He flashed bursts of speed in getting to the outside, gained some tough yardage and caught a pair of passes for 33 additional yards. Rex Grossman (18-42, 210 yards, TD, 3 INTs, FL) wasn't as awful as he was in Arizona, but it was pretty close. Constant pressure from Dolphins linemen Jason Taylor, David Bowens and Kevin Carter had Grossman flustered, and Miami's second touchdown was a pass that was thrown by the young QB straight to Taylor. A nice drive near the end of the first half brought the Bears within four points, but Gage's fumble opened the third quarter and the Dolphins capitalized. Grossman continued to press in the fourth and Chicago never recovered. Bernard Berrian (1-10-0) left in the second quarter with a rib injury and did not return. He said afterwards that his ribs were not broken, and that falling in a "weird" manner was what hurt him. Without their best deep threat, the Bears were unable to score points in a hurry. Going Forward If Berrian has to miss time, slot receiver Rashied Davis (5-40-0) becomes a respectable interim option. Inactive second-year man Mark Bradley could work his way into a rotation with a strong week of practice, but it's clear that Gage (2-51-0, FL) would not become a starter. In addition to his costly fumble, Gage also ran what appeared to be a pair of improper routes, one of which resulted in an interception. The Bears need to address Grossman's mechanics and decisions in a major way. When protected, he remains calm and makes his reads; when pressured, he's a different quarterback. It's awfully hard to recommend him as an every-week fantasy starter right now. Chris Chambers (5-58-1) nearly surpassed his season high in receiving yards (60). His fourth touchdown of 2006 maintained his pattern of scoring every other game, and despite his season being among the bigger fantasy letdowns based on expectations, he remains a must-start player in the majority of leagues. Ravens 26, Bengals 20 Game Recap by Aaron Gleeman The Big Story Chris Perry fumbled the opening kickoff, Carson Palmer was picked off on the Bengals' first offensive possession, and the Ravens had a 14-0 lead four minutes in. Cincinnati made a solid comeback attempt despite the combination of Jamal Lewis and Steve McNair milking the clock for nearly 40 of the game's 60 minutes, but a controversial non-call officially ended the final drive. Beyond the Box Score Baltimore has scored 61 points in two games since coach Brian Billick took over the offense and the biggest change has without question come in the running game, where Lewis is back to pounding the football for 20-plus carries each week. He wasn't great Sunday, but was fed for 24 carries, caught three passes in a vastly increased role in the passing game, and punched it into the end zone from short yardage for the game's first score. Lewis now has 58 touches in two games with Billick calling the plays, compared to an average of just 16 touches per week under Jim Fassel. Chad Johnson made a great leaping catch in the first quarter, hanging in the air after mistiming his initial jump and coming down with a 15-yard grab as his shoe came flying off. However, Johnson caught just three other passes for 17 yards, was the intended target on Palmer's first-quarter pick, and has now gone nine straight games without a 100-yard effort dating back to last season. Rudi Johnson's 18 carries are a pretty solid workload considering the Bengals were down multiple scores immediately and it was interesting that Cincinnati never stopped running the ball. However, Johnson now has just one 20-carry game since a monster 26-carry, 145-yard effort in Week 2. Going Forward As if Lewis' 24 carries weren't enough to show that he's Billick's preferred horse in the backfield, here's something else to consider: Musa Smith carried three times for 46 yards in the first half, including a 30-yard gain … and didn't touch the ball after halftime. His chance to overtake Lewis left town with Fassel. Given the way he played last season and the number of injuries the Bengals have had in their receiving corps, Chris Perry had a chance to make a big impact after being activated from the PUP list last month. That ship has probably sailed after Sunday's performance, which saw Perry lose the opening kickoff, narrowly recover a second fumble on a later return, and touch the ball a grand total of one time on offense. Mark Clayton had a clunker against New Orleans in Week 8, catching just one pass and suffering a hamstring injury, but if you ignore that one outing he has 30 catches in his last five games (including eight grabs for 73 yards Sunday). He may be taking over for Derrick Mason (two catches, 20 yards) as Steve McNair's favorite target (Non-Todd Heap Division). Washington 22, Dallas 19 Game Recap by: Gregg Rosenthal The Big Story Tony Romo 2.0 looked good, but a key drop by Terrell Owens and a late blocked field goal by Mike Vanderjagt lost the game late for Dallas. Nick Novak got a bizarre second chance for a game winning field goal in the final minute and nailed it. Joe Gibbs couldn't bear to watch by then. Mark Brunell will live another week. Beyond The Box Score Terrell Owens (7-76-1) is going to like the Tony Romo era. He was targeted early and often again, but his drop on a would-be 72-yard touchdown will be the play everyone remembers. The good news for Owens owners: He's outrunning defenses again. T.O. made a few plays after his catches that showed his explosiveness is back. And Romo kept throwing to him, even after two drops. Romo (24-36-284-2-0) looked even better than his first start against Carolina. He didn't actually throw a pass until the end of the first quarter, but did a fantastic job buying time in the pocket all day while converting third-and-long plays. He was six-of-his first eight on third downs and plays calm, motioning for receivers to change their routes mid-play. His last throw, a 28-yard strike to Jason Witten with time running down, set up a 35-yard chance to win for Mike Vanderjagt. Marion Barber (7-45-0, 2-28-0) didn't play more early in the game like Bill Parcells threatened. But he did have a better day than Julius Jones (20-73-0). Jones is on pace for over 1,370 rushing yards this year, but it wouldn't shock me if Barber got more carries next week. Clinton Portis (23-84-1, 1-9-0) was stuffed five times inside the five-yard line on the game's first drive. He was bottled up most of the day, gaining only 19 yards on his first 12 carries, but broke a 38-yard misdirection play for a score. Portis doesn't seem patient enough to wait for his plays to the outside to develop. He wants to run downhill. The team around Portis limits his upside. Mark Brunell (14-23-192-1-0) had his usual head-scrathing throws, but he was efficient for the most part despite the lack of Santana Moss. Chris Cooley (3-66-1) busted open over the middle a few times, but dropped a long gainer when he saw Roy Williams looming. The tight end made up for it with a great touchdown off a tipped pass. Antwaan Randle had no catches as a starter, but did draw a long pass interference on a fourth-quarter throw to Brandon Lloyd (2-26-0) Going Forward Look for the Cowboys to take out their aggression in Arizona next week. I can't think of a member of their offense, aside from Patrick Crayton, that wouldn't be a good play. Romo is going to be a useful QB1 against poor defenses. Clinton Portis would be helped if Santana Moss returns to the lineup. The Cowboys crowded the box all day Sunday. Giants 14, Texans 10 Game Recap by: Evan Silva It had been seven long weeks since Tiki Barber reached the end zone. But Tiki ended his scoreless streak quickly Sunday by scampering in from 16 yards out midway through the first quarter to put New York up 7-0 early. A gutsy display from an oft-hurried David Carr (21-30-176-0-0, 5-21-1) highlighted by a two-yard TD leap was not enough for the Texans, as they again fell victim to an inability to stop the run after a late-game Jameel Cook (1-14, 1-3) fumble, dropping to 2-6 on the season. Beyond the Box Score With Plaxico Burress (back) sidelined, Jeremy Shockey (8-66-1), took over as Eli Manning's top target. Shockey racked up receptions early, finishing the first quarter with four for 33 yards. In the fourth, Eli (17-28-179-1-1) play faked to Brandon Jacobs (7-19, 1-21) and found Shockey in the end zone for the fifth time this season. Carr was exceptional when on the run, picking up two first downs with his legs in the first half. He was unable to hook up with his receivers deep, however, and without the threat of a consistent run game, could not sustain drives. Cook's late fumble in Giants territory and a missed field goal by Kris Brown in the first quarter likely cost Houston at least six points. Manning couldn't get downfield without Burress. The Giants' longest pass play went to Jacobs for 21 yards, the goal-line back's fourth catch all year. Tim Carter (1-15) and Amani Toomer (2-15) were non-factors. Wali Lundy (20-48, 3-16) was in during goal-line situations, but was stuffed. Lundy gained steam as the game progressed after spinning his wheels early on. This was his first quality opponent and it showed in his numbers. Ron Dayne did not receive a carry. Samkon Gado was inactive for Houston. Going Forward Carr should get back to being a good fantasy play in the right matchups, when he's not running for his life from Michael Strahan and Mathias Kiwanuka. He can be a fine QB2. Andre Johnson (9-83) cannot be benched in fantasy leagues against the Jaguars in Week 10. He caught eight passes for 106 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 7. Johnson is on pace for 130 receptions this season. Eli Manning's fantasy upside will be limited if Burress continues to miss time. With how successful the Giants' running game has been, don't expect big numbers from Eli against a Chicago defense that's been exposed on the ground the past two weeks, especially if Plax is still hurt. Lundy is only a mediocre flex against Jacksonville in Week 10 but has a string of stellar matchups on the way (BUF in Week 11, NYJ in Week 12, OAK in Week 13, TEN in Week 14). Shockey is healthy. Use him every week. Lions 30, Falcons 14 Game Recap by Aaron Gleeman The Big Story In a slight but oh-so-important modification from their typical script this season, the Lions took an early lead by playing well for three quarters … and then actually held on for the win. Detroit scored touchdowns following two early Michael Vick turnovers, pounded Kevin Jones on the ground, and put the game away behind Roy Williams' huge second half. Beyond the Box Score The big story is no doubt that Michael Vick came crashing back down to earth after two huge games in a row. While it's true that he had three turnovers, including two that can safely be placed in the "bonehead" category, he still put together a nice fantasy game with 163 passing yards, 80 rushing yards, and a touchdown. In fact, his performance is a perfect example of why Vick is potentially such an incredible fantasy player. He can play poorly, costing his team the game with multiple mistakes, and still rack up points. Williams was held to just two catches and 27 yards in the first half, but destroyed the Falcons' secondary after halftime. Williams caught four passes for 111 yards in the second half, including a tackle-busting 60-yard touchdown that put the Lions up 27-14 in the fourth quarter. Williams now has four 100-yard games in his last six and has found the end zone four times over that same stretch. Jon Kitna topped 300 yards again, but it was far from a typical Mike Martz-led Lions offensive attack. Kitna's 32 pass attempts were a season-low and Jones' 26 carries were a season-high (including 14 second-half rushes). Jones scored twice and also caught at least four passes for the eighth straight game, racking up 140 total yards as Martz's poor man's Marshall Faulk. Going Forward Warrick Dunn had a big first half running against the Lions' beat up front seven, carrying eight times for 41 yards, and also punched it into the end zone from two yards out just before halftime. However, Dunn carried just three times for 10 yards in the second half, giving way to Jerious Norwood quite a bit. Norwood carried three times for 26 yards in the second half, but left with a knee injury. Mike Furrey was one of the league's biggest early-season surprises and it doesn't look like he's going to turn back into a pumpkin anytime soon. Furrey caught four passes for 72 yards, giving him 181 yards over the past two games after a brief two-week lull last month. Furrey is now on pace for 81 catches, 1,006 yards, and six touchdowns. He's not going away. Chiefs 31, Rams 17 Game Recap by: Evan Silva Three first-half turnovers by St. Louis resulted in a quick 17 points for Kansas City. The Chiefs' star players, Larry Johnson (27-172-1) and Tony Gonzalez (5-63-2) came to play, while two of the Rams', Torry Holt (3-50) and Isaac Bruce (3-61), didn't. But, it was a pretty good fantasy day for most, as Marc Bulger (31-42-354-1) frequently found Steven Jackson (19-86-1, 13-133) and Kevin Curtis (7-59-1) during garbage time. Despite being down by 14 points late in the fourth quarter, the Rams never gave up. Owners of Curtis, Jackson, and Bulger reaped the benefits. Damon Huard (10-15-148-3) did almost all of his work near or in the red zone, exploiting a Rams secondary that was on its heels due to the unstoppable force that is Larry Johnson. Huard hit Gonzalez twice and fullback Kris Wilson once for scores. It was Huard's fourth multi-touchdown game of the season. He only completed ten passes, so Samie Parker (1-43) and Eddie Kennison (2-19) suffered. Jared Allen dominated from the right end spot. Allen sacked Bulger, stripped him, and recovered the fumble to set up one of Gonzalez' touchdowns in the second quarter. Allen, who finished with six solo tackles, two forced fumbles, and two sacks, was matched against Rams perennial All-Pro left tackle Orlando Pace. Holt was made a non-factor by Patrick Surtain. Surtain has quietly put together possibly the best season of any cornerback in the league. Kansas City currently ranks first against opposing No. 1 receivers. Ty Law was often covering Kevin Curtis, who had a big game. Jackson has reached the end zone in consecutive weeks. He's keeping his promise to score more in the second half of the season. His 13 catches were a bit fluky, but huge in points-per-reception leagues. As usual, Bulger played until the final horn, racking up yards on St. Louis' last few possessions. Bulger was extremely efficient and continues to involve more people in the passing game like Shaun McDonald (2-27) and Curtis. Going Forward Huard is fully expected to hand over the offensive reigns to Trent Green (who was oddly in pads on the sidelines despite being inactive Sunday) by Week 11. But before then, Huard gets a favorable matchup in warm Miami. He's worth considering next Sunday. Holt will turn it around after a quiet past two games. Bruce, who didn't make a catch in the second half Sunday can be used in the right matchups. Curtis is worth a look in most leagues after back-to-back big performances. Parker and Kennison's values are at all-time lows. Neither has been consistent. They're unreliable fantasy bench material. Saints 31, Bucs 14 Game Recap by: Gregg Rosenthal The Big Story Manning to Harrison? Bah. Drew Brees to Marques Colston is the hottest quarterback-receiver connection in the league. Brees had no help from a dormant Saints running game, but still threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns against a thin Tampa secondary. Colston scored his seventh touchdown, finishing with 11 catches and 123 yards in a game the Saints controlled throughout. This will undoubtedly go down as the worst offense Jon Gruden has ever coached. Beyond The Box Score Brees' arm strength is improving as the season wears on. He threw two long scores to Devery Henderson (3-111-2) and had better zip on throws across his body. Brees was excellent all day buying time in the pocket, making many plays on the run. Terrance Copper (1-11-0) actually started over Henderson. Reggie Bush (11/-5, 4-22-0) had the worst day running the football I've ever seen. He's now averaging 2.5 yards-per-carry in his rookie season. It's a cliché, but he really does try to make a big play every snap, always going East-West instead of North-South. I'm surprised how many cutbacks he missed that could have been big plays. Deuce McAllister (15-32-1) didn't find many holes either, but at least he gets the ball near the stripe. Bruce Gradkowski (18-31-185-2-0) is as streaky as it gets. The Bucs offense only gained ten yards in their first six drives, all three and outs. The rookie looked skittish and made wacky decisions. Suddenly at the end of the first half, he led Tampa on two touchdown drives of at least 69 yards punctuated by gorgeous scoring throws. After halftime, it was back to square one. The Bucs didn't score another point. The final numbers don't look terrible, but the Saints dropped at least three possible picks and Gradkowski fumbled three times. Only the Raiders and Titans have worse passing games at this point. Joey Galloway (4-97-2) is the definition of a feast-or-famine player. He has three enormous games this season, one average one, and four under 35 yards. He's worth a roll of dice as a WR3, but he'll drive you crazy eventually. Unlike other 35-year-old wideouts, though, Galloway still has all his speed. He dusted Fred Thomas repeatedly. Blame the Tampa offense for Cadillac Williams' struggles if you want (12-39-0, 1-5-0), it doesn't really matter. When the team falls behind 14 early and the opponents still stack eight in the box, he's not going to have a good day. Life doesn't get easier next week at Carolina. Going Forward Don't be surprised if Luke McCown gets a chance as Tampa's starter down the stretch. He has to fully recover from his knee injury, but Jon Gruden will give him a try in December if Gradkowski doesn't show improvement. Bush has to be headed to fantasy benches if possible. Same goes for Deuce McAllister against better defenses. The Saints O-line isn't playing as well and they steal each other touches. I don't think there will be light at the end of the 2006 tunnel for Michael Clayton and Alex Smith. Henderson isn't worth picking up. He's an inconsistent player and Joe Horn isn't likely to be out long. Jaguars 37, Titans 7 Game Recap by Aaron Gleeman The Big Story On a rainy afternoon in Jacksonville, the Jaguars' defense shut the Titans down and pressured Vince Young into three turnovers as three of David Garrard's 12 completions went for touchdowns in a blowout win that was never in doubt. Beyond the Box Score Garrard's first throw was batted down at the line of scrimmage, but he scrambled for a 12-yard gain on third-and-11 in the first quarter and bought himself a lot of time in the pocket with quick feet throughout the game. Garrard misfired on 10 of his 22 throws, including airmailing an open Ernest Wilford on a deep ball in the first quarter, and was helped by his massive receivers out-jumping defenders on several passes. Tennessee came out throwing, but Young missed on three straight passes on the first possession, got picked off on a tipped ball over the middle shortly after that, and started 2-of-10 for 19 yards. He recovered to go 13-of-26 for 142 yards and a touchdown to finish the game, but his finest moment may have been dragging Rashean Mathis down near the goal line after an interception (the hustle saved four points). The loss dropped Young to 2-3 as an NFL starter, which is noteworthy because he finished his college career 30-2. While Garrard couldn't get the ball to Wilford deep down the middle early, they did combine on a pair of touchdowns. Wilford snuck completely behind the defense for an 11-yard touchdown in the first quarter and then hauled in a 22-yard score after beating the defender to the corner of the end zone as Garrard lobbed a perfect pass right over his shoulder. A suddenly healthy Matt Jones came up with three grabs for 66 yards, including a leaping, defensive back-climbing catch on an underthrown jump ball. Not coincidentally with both Wilford and Jones heavily involved in the passing game, Reggie Williams was a non-factor with just one catch. Going Forward Maurice Jones-Drew racked up 85 yards on 10 touches, including a 40-yard run on one of his eight carries, and posted 50-plus total yards for the sixth straight game. He might not be any danger to Fred Taylor (13 carries, 79 yards) as the Jaguars' feature back and was stuffed at the goal line, but Drew has a clear niche as a weekly all-around threat and is a big part of the offense. Travis Henry continues to maintain the lead over LenDale White at the top of the Titans' depth chart. Henry wasn't particularly effective running against a Jacksonville defensive line that was banged up and left briefly with a leg injury, but improved in the second half while White rushed a total of seven times for 25 yards. It remains a clear one-two situation. Bills 24, Packers 10 Game Recap by: Evan Silva The Big Story Brett Favre had thrown 11 touchdowns to just five interceptions coming into this game. Buffalo's secondary had been struggling recently, and Green Bay's receiving corps was at full strength, with Greg Jennings surprisingly active. The Packers had been mounting a run game in recent weeks, and little-known David Martin was emerging as a force in fantasy football. But we saw the old Brett Favre on Sunday, the 2003-2005 version. He wasn't credited with all of them, but Favre played a role in each of Green Bay's four turnovers. His first pick was returned 17 yards for a touchdown by London Fletcher, his second for 72 yards by Ko Simpson after a promising fourth-quarter drive down to the Bills' one. Anthony Thomas, subbing for an injured Willis McGahee, scored from 14 yards out just plays later to ice the win for Buffalo. Beyond the Box Score Favre made plenty of errors, muffing two snaps and throwing the aforementioned picks. He hurt the Packers' chances to win. But he didn't hurt his teammates. Donald Driver (9-96-1) racked up second-half catches. Greg Jennings (5-69) was extraordinary at times in his return from an ankle injury. David Martin (4-51) continued his strong mid-season run. Even Noah Herron (5-25, 7-57) got involved. A major breakdown in coverage by the Packers midway through the fourth quarter may have saved J.P. Losman's starting job. Losman (8-15-102-1) had under 60 yards passing until he found Lee Evans (2-52-1) wide open down the sidelines for a 43-yard score. There was not a defender in the area. Thomas (20-95-1, 1-6) was able to pick up quality yardage behind Buffalo's revamped offensive line. The late score padded his stats, but Thomas ripped off several four- and five-yard runs against a Green Bay rush D that had been stout to this point. Ahman Green (23-122, 1-8) shook off a slow start that included a big drop in the first quarter with a solid finish. The Packers looked to the air when they were near or in the red zone, costing Ahman several potential scores. But he continues to excel in Green Bay's new zone-blocking scheme. Going Forward Thomas can be a solid flex in Week 10 at Indianapolis if McGahee sits. McGahee's status will be updated Monday, when he's expected to undergo an MRI. Jennings will likely again be on the injury report because he aggravated his ankle in the first half. He's an elite fantasy WR3 when healthy. Driver is a fantasy starter. Don't give up on Favre yet, but don't use him against Minnesota next week. He could be a decent play in Week 11 at home against the Patriots. |
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#2 |
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Moderator
Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 58,015
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The Martz Effect
There are few hard and fast rules in 21st century American life. Not so few than I can name them all here in this column, but few enough that it's easy to spot the rules that do, indeed, hold true amidst the craziness of our modern lives. One such rule has become apparent in the last two and a half months—where Mike Martz goes, productive offenses follow. Even to Detroit of all places. We're about halfway through Martz's first season as the Lions' offensive coordinator, and the results are, well, Martz-like. After ranking 27th in total offense in 2005 the Lions, following yesterday's 435-yard effort against the Falcons defense, are up to 12th so far in 2006. Kevin Jones (26/110, 2 TDs; 4/30) is one of many Lions experiencing the 'Martz effect' firsthand. The former Hokie had another big game Sunday and is on pace for a career year (1,168 yards rushing, 82 catches, 600 yards and 14 total TDs). He's also working his way into undisputed Top-Ten running back status, especially in points per reception leagues Jon Kitna and Roy Williams are having gigantic fantasy seasons under Martz as well. Kitna (20/32, 321, TD, INT; 1/17) has handled the Martz attack beautifully and is on pace for 4,348 yards through the air, which would be the most he's thrown for in a season by almost 800 yards. Blessed with great talent and size, Roy Williams (6/138, TD) has, for one reason or another, never produced like a receiver with his abilities should. Chalk up yet another career season to Martz. In 2006, Williams is on pace for 88 catches for 1,438 yards and 8 TDs. He had never topped 817 yards in a season coming into 2006. He's yet another example of how one man's ideas about offense can turn formerly non-productive players into potential All-Pros. Isn't it amazing the difference an effective offensive scheme can make? Emerging Trends The Good Stuff: Last week I advised QB-hungry owners to keep an eye on David Garrard (12/22, 177, 3 TDs; 2/14) despite the likely conservative gameplan to come this week. I'm guessing most of you passed on the opportunity to grab him unless you were in a bye-week bind. For those of you who did not grab Garrard, here's the bad news: you missed out on his 'anomaly' game. Garrard's three TDs Sunday represented 75% of his previous season-high of four last season. But here's the good news: he won't throw three TDs in a game very often, especially when he attempts so few passes. So you didn't pass on a potential second-half superstar, you passed on a one-week wonder whose week nine success no one could have predicted. Don't chase the points here. Garrard is a decent backup fantasy QB with some potential, but likely little more. Holy Steven Jackson, Batman! Jackson (19/86, TD; 13/133, fum) went ballistic Sunday, earning his owners one of the biggest points-per-reception efforts of the season. Jackson has been a slightly disappointing, if steady, RB1 this season. He's always been a solid all-around producer and remains as much. I'm advising a buy-hold on Jackson right now as he'd be tough to afford coming off such a huge effort. But if you can find an owner that foolishly wants to sell high on him, take a shot. The Rams have a decent schedule down the stretch, with games against Arizona and San Francisco as highlights. If you own him, by all means, keep him. Ronnie Brown (29/157; 2/33) finally played like he's capable of playing. Brown notched a career-high in rushing yards Sunday as his Miami Dolphins once again ended a Chicago Bears undefeated season. But it's hard to tell if there's more to come from Ronnie. A lot will depend on his quarterback situation, and Joey Harrington (16/32, 137, 3 TDs, 2 INTs; 4/2) is anything but dependable. The Dolphins schedule the rest of the way is nothing worth noting—some ok matchups some not-so ok. If you're buying or selling on Brown, do so on the virtues of his offensive line and his quarterback, not necessarily his own abilities. The Bad Stuff: Some humans enjoy the summer most. Some prefer the winter. Others, like me, enjoy the changing of the seasons and are therefore spring and fall people. Alex Smith (13/21, 105, INT), it seems, is a summer person. Smith started the season off with some big statistical games, but he hasn't had much success since his three games in September (61/108, 814 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs). In the five games so far in October and November, Smith has gone 75/121 for 711 yards with 6 TDs and 7 INTs. Those numbers aren't Alex Smith circa-2005 bad, but they're not exactly good, either. I think it'll be some time before the 49ers have consistent success on offense. And for those of you still hanging onto those precious memories of Smith's relatively brilliant September, feel free to let them drift into the Autumnal Abyss. Smith is waiver-wire fodder. Last Monday, Mike Vick was the story. He was coming off his two best passing games of his career and everyone was wondering if Vick had finally 'gotten it'. As a Vick owner, and considering his questionable track record as a passer, I was skeptical. I advised shopping Vick and at least seeing what the market would bear for fantasy's #3 QB at the time. After all, with matchups against the Lions and Browns in the following two weeks, he would undoubtedly fetch a high price. Fast forward to today and the story is, not surprisingly, about the return of the same old Mike Vick (17/32, 163, TD, 2 INTs; 10/80, fum). Against a sieve-like Lions defense that ranks 26th in the league, Mike Vick was unremarkable in the way only Mike Vick can be unremarkable—that is to say despite his incredible physical talent and his elite athleticism, he remains a below-average passer and a less than ideal leader of an offense. I hope y'all shopped Vick when you could, because he won't get you near as much today as he could have a week ago. Shanahan Corner: It was a 13-13 tie between Laurence Maroney (13/63; 1/-1) and Corey Dillon (13/48, 2 TDs; 1/5) in their battle for carries in Sunday night's loss to the Colts. The 50/50 divide of carries is expected from Maroney owners by now, but with that expectation also comes the expectation of 50/50 production. And that hasn't been the case lately. Once again, it was Corey Dillon that secured the fantasy goods with a pair of TDs against the Colts. And that's been the trend here. Laurence Maroney hasn't really done anything, in fact, since his Week four outburst against Cincinnati. In the four games since, Maroney has rushed 47 times for 164 yards (3.48 ypc) and no TDs. In that same span Dillon has rushed 40 times for 145 yards (3.62 ypc), but with four TDs—and he's not the Pats designated goalline runner. So what does it mean? It means Maroney's stock is at a season low and he might be a good buy-low target right now. We've seen what he can do. It's only a matter of time until some of those equal touches go for scores and the pendulum swings Maroney's way. Buy. The Colts, for the first time this season, gave a large percentage of their carries to one back. And Joseph Addai (18/43, TD) did a passable job as the newly-minted, pseudo-featured back (enough qualifies in there for you?). Much to the delight of those Addai owners, Dominic Rhodes (4/13) was hardly used. This is still a fluid situation, but it looks like Addai has something of a hold on the title of Top Dog in the Indy backfield. The Titans continue to divvy up their carries with Travis Henry (19/67) getting the bulk of the work and LenDale White (7/25; 2/1) chipping in. Both had predictably poor games against a tough Jaguars front. Complicating matters for these two was the way the game played out. Jacksonville got ahead early and effectively limited the damage the Tennessee rushing attack could inflict. Henry remains the best bet for touches in the now while White remains a sexier keeper option. This is just getting ridiculous. Reggie Bush's numbers (11/-5; 4/22) keep getting worse! But I guess the 6-2 Saints can't really be too concerned as they're, well, 6-2. It is interesting, however, that Bush is getting less effective instead as the season is wearing on. This whole NFL-thing is tough, isn't it Reg? Maybe this trend will reverse itself and Reggie will have a nice second half. But maybe the Saints are content to use Bush as a decoy. It's been working so far. In any case, the mantra on these Saints runners holds true: Deuce in scoring formats, Bush in yardage and ppr formats. Don't expect a huge rebound from Bush this season. But it's safe to expect better numbers than he put up Sunday. A moderate buy in ppr leagues for those in need of a RB3. The Bears had given Thomas Jones (20/69; 4/24) twice the workload of Cedric Benson (8/34) through their streak of seven wins to start 2006. That formula went unchanged Sunday in the Bears first loss of 2006. I see no reason to assume the roles of Jones and Benson will change anytime soon. The Cowboys have relied upon Julius Jones (20/73) to get the yardage and Marion Barber (7/45; 2/28) to get the scores this season. That trend will likely continue in general, but Barber may see his carries increase if he continues to produce the way he has been. Barber has scored six TDs this year in his short yardage role, a role that often comes bundled with an artificially deflated ypc average. But Barber is averaging 5.2 yards-per-carry despite his goalline duties. That's impressive stuff. If you can sell Julius Jones as a featured runner or even a RB2, I'd consider looking into it. Barber is making a little noise behind him and Jones doesn't get the touches at the stripe anyhow. Move Jones for a more stable RB2 if you can. Fred Taylor (13/79) and Maurice-Jones-Drew-Griffith-Joyner-Kersee (8/56; 2/29) continue to do their thing. Maurice has recently been more of a total yardage gainer than Taylor, and he's been scoring more often (five TDs in '06 compared to Taylor's three). But Fred continues to get the majority of the work on the ground. I'd rather own Jones-Drew-Griffith-Joyner-Kersee in scoring-heavy or ppr formats. Especially considering the impending injury to Fred Taylor's….um…let's say hamstring |
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Moderator
Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
Location: Orlando, Florida
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Late Recaps
Broncos 31, Steelers 20 Game Recap By: Evan Silva The Big Story Two quick scoring passes from Jake Plummer (16-27-227-3-0) set the tone in the game's first four minutes. Ben Roethlisberger (38-54-433-1-3), Cedrick Wilson (4-59), Hines Ward, and Santonio Holmes (6-58) combined for six turnovers, three of which came in the red zone. The Steelers made too many mistakes and the Broncos didn't make many. A dominant performance by Javon Walker (6-134-2, 1-72-1) was enough to send Pittsburgh's remaining playoff hopes down the drain. Beyond the Box Score Roethlisberger threw at Champ Bailey twice near the goal line, the first when Pittsburgh was driving in the second quarter with a chance to tie the score. Bailey picked off both. These were just ill-advised decisions by Big Ben. The Steelers were again in position to narrow the gap in the final two minutes, but Hines Ward (7-127) attempted to dive over John Lynch at the goal line, Lynch knocked the ball loose, and Curome Cox recovered it. Pittsburgh left loads of points on the field. Mike Bell (17-28, 5-40) was stifled by a healthy Steelers run defense. Outside of Walker 72-yard reverse, Denver was unable to get anything going on the ground. Plummer found Rod Smith (4-46-1) for an early score and Walker for several big pass plays. Willie Parker (14-70-1, 7-67-1) had just four carries in the second half. Pittsburgh turned away from the run when they were down and Roethlisberger's interceptions brought promising drives to their deaths. Going Forward Heath Miller (5-34) has been in a funk but should turn it around in the second half. Upcoming matchups with the Saints and Browns should get Miller back on track. The 2005 first-round pick was productive in the first half of Sunday's game. Parker is on pace to reach the end zone 16 times in his second year as Pittsburgh's starter. While Najeh Davenport (2-17, 5-57) is expected to help out on third downs going forward, Verron Haynes' season-ending knee injury opens the door for Fast Willie to play more during passing situations, and Roethlisberger likes throwing it to him. Walker's knee appears to be at full strength. He's become a dominant force and has been Denver's most consistently potent offensive weapon all season. There's no reason to sit him down in any week. Plummer was given a bit more freedom to throw the ball Sunday, but a Week 10 date at Oakland could spell trouble. While Plummer's starting job is safe, he's not a fantasy starter despite a season-best game against the Steelers. Roethlisberger is an above average fantasy start versus New Orleans next Sunday. He's racking up yards. Make sure to monitor Tatum Bell's status on the Week 10 injury report. Oakland has not been effective at stopping the run. If healthy, expect Tatum to share carries with Mike Bell, for now. More information on the situation should be provided during the week. Chargers 32, Browns 25 Game Recap by: Gregg Rosenthal The Big Story Remember the conventional wisdom before the season when everyone said a top-three pick had a huge advantage? Well, that was true – as long as you didn't get stuck with cracked foot Alexander. Rotoworld's preseason No. 1 LaDainian Tomlinson added 192 yards and three scores on only 21 touches Sunday. He's now scored 11 times in four weeks and is on pace for his best fantasy season yet. Beyond The Box Score Tomlinson only had 43 yards on seven carries in the first half before busting open two long runs in the second half, including a 41-yard score. San Diego blocked well, but LT2's jukes, cutbacks, and vision were positively Barry-like. No one will ever accuse Marty Schottenheimer of being overly complicated. On San Diego's last scoring drive, he called the exact same play three straight times. The results: Tomlinson 32-yard run, Turner 21-yard run, Tomlinson 8-yard score. Now that's a drive. Turner only had two carries all game (for 21 yards). He's now averaging 5.5 yards-per-carry on the year, but doesn't play much in close games. Cleveland had the lead in this game for much of the afternoon. Kellen Winslow wasn't targeted in the first 28 minutes of the game, but finished with 11 catches and 78 yards. This kid is going to be ridiculous if he ever gets his speed back. He understands how to get open and has excellent hands. Charlie Frye (25-43-236-1-1, 5-27-0) had a good fantasy day, but the Browns have to be getting frustrated with him. He lost a fumble that resulted in a touchdown. He threw at least 3-5 head-scratching throws that should have been intercepted. He stares down receivers. There hasn't been the progress that one would expect in his second season. Reuben Droughns (19-36-0) didn't help out Frye much. Cleveland settled for six field goals, five kicked from the red zone. That's an indictment of a weak running game. Cleveland looked to Jerome Harrison for a spark late (2-13-0), but he had a fumble and a drop. Braylon Edwards (6-61-1) is having trouble getting deep, but he showed off his athleticism with a diving grab. He also ran over Quentin Jammer after one catch, showing good toughness. The second year pro is on pace for 878 yards, which is not bad at all coming off a torn ACL. Joe Jurevicius (3-76-0) dropped a possible touchdown, but was a big part of the passing game. He drew three penalties, two on questionable calls where Jurevicius used the defender to make it appear as if pass interference had occurred. Going Forward Tomlinson should keep his roll on. His next four games are Cincy, Denver, Oakland, and Buffalo. Only the Broncos should give him problems. Philip Rivers is a consistent weekly option that has shown no signs of slowing down. His controlled 211-yard effort came against an underrated Browns secondary. Jurevicius and Eric Parker (5-65-0) are worth owning in almost all leagues. Droughns should either be traded from your fantasy team or benched against above average defenses. The best matchup coming up is Week 12 against the Bengals. 49ers 9, Vikings 3 Game Recap by Aaron Gleeman The Big Story In a game that can be called "really ugly" or "a defensive struggle" depending on how generous you're feeling, the 49ers put three field goals on the board and let the Vikings' offense—now almost comically inept—shoot itself in the foot with turnovers, dropped passes, and a game plan full of plays seemingly designed to gain three yards. Beyond the Box Score Chester Taylor narrowly missed another huge game when a 65-yard touchdown was called back because of Travis Taylor's illegal block, but still carried 26 times for 96 yards and caught eight balls for 45 yards. The 34 touches matched his season-high from Week 1 and he's cracked 30 touches in four of eight games with Minnesota. However, after carrying 13 times for 61 yards in the first half, Taylor was held to 2.7 yards per carry after halftime as the Vikings futilely pounded the running game in between punts. If the Vikings had any sort of backup option, Brad Johnson likely would have been benched for good a week ago. Instead, he took the field Sunday and did absolutely zero damage despite completing two-thirds of his passes, which is more difficult to do than it sounds. Almost everything was a dump-off pass to either Taylor, Tony Richardson or Jermaine Wiggins, and in the rare instances when Johnson went deep Troy Williamson and Bethel Johnson dropped the ball. His halftime stats say plenty about the Vikings' passing attack: 10-of-12 for 60 yards. Minnesota is freefalling now after a good start and it's natural to assume they're sub par in all phases. However, after getting lit up by the Patriots last Monday night, the Vikings' defense was extremely good against the 49ers. Frank Gore came into the game with an NFL-leading per-carry average, but was held to 41 yards on 19 carries. Alex Smith had trouble finding anyone downfield for a meaningful gain and San Francisco totaled 133 yards of offense. Minnesota's offense is a mess right now, but they can still shut people down. If you remove the plays on which Taylor and Gore touched the ball, the two teams combined to gain 153 yards on 59 plays, or an average of 2.6 yards per play. Seriously. Going Forward With Green Bay, Miami, and Arizona up next on the schedule, Minnesota's defense remains an excellent week-to-week fantasy play and the Vikings may still become the first team in NFL history to win 10 games without an actual offense. Williamson's much talked about "stone hands" didn't disappoint, as he dropped two passes and had another deflect off his hands for an interception (which was more Johnson's fault). Williamson only managed to catch one pass out of four targets and his days of being the early-season playmaker are clearly over. It looked briefly like Mewelde Moore would steal snaps from Taylor in passing situations, but that changed Sunday. Moore has been effective when given a chance to touch the ball, but continues to get almost zero work in the running game and took a backseat to Taylor on passing downs Sunday. With Vernon Davis expected back in the lineup next week, Eric Johnson's window of opportunity has officially closed. Johnson somehow managed to catch exactly three passes in five straight games filling in for Davis, which while remarkably consistent wasn't quite the sort of fill-in impact fantasy owners were hoping for. |
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Moderator
Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
Location: Orlando, Florida
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