Fantasy Football News 11/17/06

[Hache Man]

What We Learned This Week
This week both began and ends with major uncertainty in the Broncos' backfield, although to be fair you could flip to a random page on random calendar from a random year and probably find a week for which that same thing could have been said. What did we learn in between Tatum Bell's stock rising and falling and Mike Bell's chances of seeing significant action in Week 11 flat-lining and skyrocketing?

Well, Steve Smith taught us that throwing up into a trash can repeatedly on national television can be extremely good for your job performance. Meanwhile, Marlion Jackson showed that despite what these so-called "health experts" might have you believe, working out is probably a really bad idea, especially right after you land a new job. Sure, the NFL is a lot of fun to watch, but at the end of the day it's important life lessons like this that really make the league special.

Here are some other notes from around football …

* Coach Herm Edwards cut to the chase by naming Trent Green his Week 11 starter Wednesday and reported that Green "practiced good" and "didn't show any signs of fatigue" leading the first-team offense at practice Thursday. Anyone who's missed eight straight games with a concussion is an iffy fantasy play immediately upon their return and with matchups against Oakland and Denver over the next two weeks Green is an especially shaky short-term value.

At best, he seems like a decent bet to emerge as a low-level QB1 or solid QB2 beginning around Week 13 against Cleveland. Of course, if you're in a position to need Green producing for you during the fantasy playoff run, it's unlikely that you'll be advancing to your league's playoffs anyway. Beyond the relatively minimal short-term fantasy impact, Edwards' decision to turn back to Green may also have a long-term impact.

Damon Huard will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason and figures to garner plenty of interest after posting a 97.6 quarterback rating and 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while subbing for Green. By benching him for Green at this point the Chiefs seemingly tell Huard he's not in their plans beyond this season. At 33 years old Huard certainly isn't anyone's idea of a "quarterback of the future," but Green reclaiming the job after his backup thrived in the role is something new.

* After missing practice both Wednesday and Thursday, Reuben Droughns is reportedly unlikely to play in Week 11, although the Browns continue to insist that he's merely questionable. Droughns shed the boot he had been wearing to protect his sprained foot Thursday, but appears to be a game-time decision at best this week, making him a very iffy RB2 play against Pittsburgh.

If Droughns can't go Sunday, Jason Wright would start in his place while likely splitting carries with Jerome Harrison. Between Wright's horrendous yards-per-carry average, Harrison's butter fingers, shaky offensive line play, and Pittsburgh's solid run defense, it may become the Charlie Frye show in Week 11. That's generally not good news for Browns, particularly after they won behind a conservative, game-managing Frye last week.

* Thursday played out an awful lot like Wednesday for both Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck. Alexander practiced with the Seahawks' first-team offense for the second straight day, splitting snaps with Maurice Morris, and looks more likely that ever to finally return in some capacity this week. Meanwhile, Hasselbeck continued to run the scout-team offense and looks more likely to serve as Seneca Wallace's backup for at least one game.

* Frank Gore was held out of team drills at Thursday's practice, but coach Mike Nolan continues to insist that he's likely to suit up this week. Nolan, who called Gore "probable" despite his being listed as questionable on the injury report, said Thursday: "I expect Frank to play." If he doesn't practice fully Friday, Gore seems likely to be a dreaded game-time decision against Seattle, although the matchup remains a good one if he can go.

* Tiki Barber practiced with a cast on his injured thumb Thursday and coach Tom Coughlin appears somewhat concerned about how effective he'll be in Week 11, but Barber keeps telling reporters that he's "not worried about it." Barber, who referred to his pain tolerance as "ridiculous" Thursday, looks likely to start against Jacksonville Monday night, but could lose more touches than usual to Brandon Jacobs.

* Sick of updates on dinged-up running backs yet? No? Good, because Ronnie Brown's groin injury kept him out of practice Thursday for the second straight day. Brown worked on the side both days and is listed as questionable, but whether or not he practices in some capacity Friday should reveal a lot about his status heading into the weekend. Injury or not, he has a very unfavorable matchup against Minnesota.

Two-Minute Drill: Coach Bill Parcells continues to talk like a man determined to have Julius Jones and Marion Barber split carries and ruin each other's fantasy value for at least the next couple games … Coach Art Shell said Thursday that he'll "go with his gut feeling" on whether to start Aaron Brooks or Andrew Walter Sunday, but it seems likely that Brooks will get the nod … Jamal Lewis has started to complain about defenses stacking defenders at the line of scrimmage against him, but somehow that wasn't a big problem when he was running through everyone a few years ago … The latest hit to Mike Williams' chances of ever doing anything in Detroit? Josh McCown has been working out at wide receiver lately … With 56 catches through nine games, Kellen Winslow is on pace to challenge Tony Gonzalez's all-time record 102 catches for a tight end.

Red Zone: Coach Mike Nolan said Thursday that Vernon Davis (leg) may be a game-time decision this week … Marcus Robinson (back) practiced Thursday for the second straight day and may return Sunday following a two-game absence … Minor back surgery will keep Ray Lewis out for Week 11, but he hopes to return against Pittsburgh in Week 12 … Todd Heap (ankle) is almost always "questionable" to play in a given week, but this time it seems like he legitimately has a chance to miss Sunday's game … Chester Taylor (calf) missed some of practice Thursday and is listed as questionable, but the Vikings don't seem concerned that he'll actually miss Week 11 … Santana Moss (hamstring) missed practice Thursday and looks likely to either sit out Sunday's game or turn in a mediocre performance like he did in Week 10 … Greg Jennings' ankle appears to be fully healthy and he's a good play against New England this week … David Carr (shoulder) practiced Thursday and was upgraded to probable … Joe Horn (groin) is set for a big day in Week 11 after being upgraded to probable following Thursday's practice.

[Hache Man]

Fantasy Bumper Stickers


This week I'll throw out some ideas for fantasy bumper stickers and discuss several players including Tom Brady, Aaron Brooks, Julius Jones, Reche Caldwell, and Bob Sanders. Then we'll hear from the most screwed over emailer of the year.
Thought of the Week: Fantasy Bumper Stickers
They estimate that up to 18 million people play fantasy sports nowadays. To put that into perspective, that's more than all of the software developers on Earth…or Internet users in Mexico…or descendents of Genghis Khan worldwide. It's about half the population of Canada and twice the population of Sweden. Perhaps most impressively, it's roughly four times as many people as use Xbox Live.
So the burning question is, why is there not a single fantasy sports bumper sticker out there? I suppose one could argue that we fantasy fanatics are not the type who go out of our way to purchase something that we can stick on our automobiles to provide strangers passing by at 65 MPH with a very quick and limited insight into our mindsets. However, that theory doesn't leave me with much of an article here. So let's suppose we are indeed of that personality type. In that case, we clearly need to do something about this bumper sticker void. We need to represent our kind on the asses of cars everywhere, much like Christians, ultra-left-wing liberals, dog lovers, and nose pickers.
Maybe if we present some ideas for the content, someone somewhere will take the baton and start printing them up. So I'll get the ball rolling with some of my own. If you have ideas, please send them along to jgangi@rotoworld.com
Okay, here are mine:

• Bush or Gore? Give me both!
• If at first you don't succeed, add and drop like there's no tomorrow
• Honk if you hate bye weeks.
• There are two types of people: Those who achieve and those who play fantasy sports
• My other RB is a Cadillac
• She can have the house, so long as I get to keep my fantasy team
• Rotoworld is my co-pilot
• Give me liberty or give me Chris Brown
• I brake for box scores
• Mean people suck...but not as much as people who don't respond to my trade offers.
• Fantasy is my reality
• Sleepers are the reason I get up in the morning
• Just call my tight end Cooley
• Proud parent of the Raging Cornholios League champion
• Have you hugged your kicker today?
• Dante wrote about hell, but Daunte brought it to life.

Got more? Send them to jgangi@rotoworld.com.
Players of Note
Aaron Brooks – Long forgotten, it looks as though Brooks will probably step right back in as the Raiders' signal caller after missing eight weeks with a shoulder injury. Given his atrocious performance in 2005 and unimpressive start to this year, fantasy owners have pretty much written him off by now. But it's possible that the veteran could have some value. He's in a good position relieving a guy whom he really can't perform worse than. And he obviously has some talented weapons to throw to in Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, and LaMont Jordan. If only he could recapture some of the magic he displayed when he averaged 3690 yards and 24.5 TD from 2001 to 2004…and the Raiders could mix in more than five offensive plays. Don't throw him right in this weekend, but if you're looking to shore up your backup QB slot, think about stashing him on your bench and seeing how things play out.
Rex Grossman – Fantasy panic buttons were seeing some serious action after Grossman's six-turnover performance against Arizona in Week 6. Since then, however, Rex has steadied the ship en route to seven TD against four INT. Over that three-game span he's averaged a respectable 236 yards. So, although he hasn't quite returned to the All-World form he displayed in the first five games, he has proven that he's resilient and that he has what it takes to be a solid NFL QB.
Marc Bulger – With "only" 215 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception (just his second of the year) against Seattle, last week was arguably Bulger's worst performance of the year. Don't be too concerned. He won't be seeing many more 3-2-6 formations like the one Seattle threw at him.
Michael Vick – Well it turns out the Vick breakout was a false alarm. After exploding for seven scores (to just two picks) in Weeks 7 and 8, he went the opposite way the next two weeks with two TD to four INT and two fumbles. So it looks like we'll still have to plan on inconsistency from the phenom…at least until he shows that he's going to protect the ball at all times and not force the issue when there's no play to be made (which must be tough to discern when you have the ability to make something out of nothing). The other factor working against Vick is still the unreliable hands of his receivers. If nothing else, we got a glimpse of what might be in store in the not-too-distant future.
Tom Brady – Death, taxes, and Tom Brady, right? Apparently not. It seemed like the Patriots' passing game had busted out when Brady dropped 372 yards and four touchdowns against the Vikings in Week 8. Then, out of nowhere, the floor fell out. Over the last two weeks, Brady has thrown an astoundingly uncharacteristic five picks to just one score. Now there's speculation that he's hiding an injury of some sort (and the signing of Vinny Testaverde does little to dispel those rumors). Whatever the case, it's clear that something is wrong. He is not playing with the fire that usually defines him. In fact, he almost looks dejected out there. Not exactly how you want to be going into a game against the vaunted Bear's defense. Owners of Brady might want to invest in a little insurance (Aaron Brooks, perhaps).
Joseph Addai – As evidenced by his seven receptions in Week 10, Addai's role continues to evolve into one that looks more and more like that of predecessors Edgerrin James and Marshall Faulk. Dominic Rhodes is obviously getting some carries as well, but Addai has established himself as the main man. His tremendous blocking skills will help ensure that he's on the field for the good majority of downs.
Willie Parker – Certainly, Parker looked great last week in becoming the first guy since Barry Sanders to break off two 70-yard runs in one game. (Ultimately, he finished with 213 yards and two scores.) However, we might need to rethink the "Fast" part of his nickname after watching him get caught from behind on both of those plays—once by Mike McKenzie and once by Jason Craft. Still, fantasy owners aren't complaining.
Julius Jones – News that Bill Parcells wants to conserve Jones for the stretch run is not exactly music to fantasy owners' ears. Especially when a very capable alternative in Marion Barber is there to assume some of the workload. Jones got just 15 carries in Week 10, and he might not see more than that for a few weeks (or even longer if Barber is exceedingly impressive). Owners should plan accordingly.
Reche Caldwell – Looking like the closest thing to a number-one receiver that the Patriots have, Caldwell went for nine catches, 90 yards, and a TD last week against the Jets. This came two weeks after an 84-yard performance against the Vikings (that also included a score). His growing rapport with Tom Brady is obviously a good thing from a fantasy standpoint; however, as with all New England receivers, you have to expect inconsistency. After all, sandwiched between those strong outings mentioned above was a one-catch, 21-yard stinker against the Colts.
Indianapolis Defense – For those of you who've rightfully licked your chops at a chance to start your running back against the Colts' porous run defense, here are a couple words of caution: Bob Sanders. After missing six weeks due to knee surgery, the Pro Bowler is back and looking like he didn't miss a game. He single-handedly sabotaged the Patriots plans to run wild last week, shooting through gaps and making flying tackles Troy Polamalu style. Ultimately, he ended up with 11 tackles, an interception, and a pass deflection. It seems one man can make a difference after all!
The Trash Dump
To submit a question or comment to the Trash Dump, email jgangi@rotoworld.com.
I'm in a 10 team league, $225 entry so it's pretty serious and competitive. A few weeks ago there were a few trades made that, in my opinion, were ridiculously unfair. After the trades, I sent an email to the league saying the trades should be disallowed. The commissioner said he wasn't going to disallow them because the trades were initiated by the teams that got the short end of the deals and because in the rules it says the commissioner can only disallow trades made after Week 6. Conveniently, these trades were made just before the Week 6 deadline and the two biggest benefactors in the trades are the commissioner and his wife. Here's the breakdown of the trades.
Tony Gonzalez and Hines Ward for Bubba Franks and Ike Hilliard Reggie Wayne for Bryant Johnson
I'm not suggesting collusion, I'm just saying when trades are made that are that unbalanced the commissioner should step in and say no way. I'm currently in first place but these trades could possibly ruin my chance at a championship. I tried to let it go but as the season progresses these trades are bothering me more and more. What's your take on this whole situation?
-Matt You're not suggesting collusion? What else could possibly explain those deals? Those trades are so egregiously lopsided, that the colluders apparently think no one in the league has the balls to defy them. These guys are literally looking to steal hundreds of dollars out of your pocket, so you definitely need to stand up. Not sure why your league has a lame rule that prevents trades from being disallowed prior to Week 6, but the obvious and colossal breach of ethics clearly overrides that rule. Get the other owners involved and demand that these trades be overturned and the commissioner be replaced. Good luck...and let us know what happens

[Hache Man]

The Stretch Run Begins
The second half of the season is upon us. It's the fantasy playoff stretch run. This is the time of year when water finds its own level, and studs like LaDainian Tomlinson and Chad Johnson have huge games. Rookies are fading (except Marques Colston), and by and large your best players are the ones that are going to win you fantasy games in this part of the season.

Almost every pick references DVOA, Football Outsiders' flagship stat that evaluates players and teams based not on their total output but on the quality of their play compared to the rest of the NFL's quality of play in similar situations. All rankings are in DVOA, not the official rankings based on yards. DVOA is more predictive of future success than anything else out there, and this column applies that predictive power not to figuring out who will win real football games, which is what DVOA was created to do, but to help you win fantasy football games. Footballoutsiders.com has a much more thorough explanation of how DVOA works, and you can also find each team's DVOA rankings there.

QUARTERBACKS

Start

Jake Plummer vs. San Diego -- Rivalry games are notoriously hard to predict. The Chargers are better, but they're consistently terrible at Mile High. Either way this goes, it will probably be high-scoring. The San Diego defense's biggest weakness is defending passes to #1 receivers. Javon Walker is playing like a man possessed, and there's nobody to throw him passes other than Plummer. (The pass-chucking halfback is on the other sideline.)

Bruce Gradkowski vs. Washington -- Gradkowski has done a surprisingly good job so far for a rookie quarterback. He's no world beating fantasy player, but he has good games against (amazingly) weak pass defenses. Washington's pass defense is (amazingly) the worst in the league, and the switch to Jason Campbell can't do anything about that.

Matt Leinart vs. Detroit -- Leinart hasn't had an easy time in his first few NFL starts. Kind of like when Eli Manning started in his rookie year, he's played his first NFL games against a difficult series of pass defenses. That all changes this week when the 31st-ranked Lions pass defense comes in. Leinart has potential, and he has all his receivers, so look for a solid if unspectacular day.

Sit

Eli Manning at Jacksonville -- Football Outsiders has always been a critic of Eli. He's not as good as his reputation, but the fact that he's been on a good team his whole career has made him look better than he is. Plus, there has been the argument that All He Does Is Win Ballgames™. Going up against a really good Jaguars pass defense that can pressure him and pick off his enormous overthrows, Eli makes a very poor start this week.

Trent Green vs. Oakland -- Oakland's pass defense is deceptively good – in that they don't win any games on account of it because their offense is so monumentally awful – so whether a Trent Green is a dangerous play against them.

Ben Roethlisberger at Cleveland -- Don't look now, but the Browns have the sixth-best pass defense in the league. Roethlisberger has been putting up good fantasy numbers the last few weeks, but he has still been throwing a lot of interceptions. The Steelers would be wise to shelve the resurrection of the 'Tommy Gun' offense against the Browns and instead lean on...

RUNNING BACKS

Start

Willie Parker at Cleveland -- The Browns have the 24th-ranked run defense in the league, and they have nearly the same profile as the Saints (whom Parker just gashed for 213 yards and 9.7 per carry). They have a very high 10+ percentage (fraction of yardage gained on long runs) and particular weaknesses on outside runs in both directions. Sounds like another nice day for Fast Willie.

Thomas Jones at N.Y. Jets -- One of the fun things about being a fantasy columnist, as opposed to a fantasy player, is that when you find a defense you like riding, you can ride them every week. The Jets are holding strong week after week with the worst run defense in the league. Thomas Jones may not be a sexy fantasy play, but he's the 15th-ranked running back in traditional scoring leagues. There's no indication that Eric Mangini and Lovie Smith hate each other, so the Bears should win this game. Lest we forget, teams run when they win.

Shaun Alexander at San Francisco -- It may be too late to save your fantasy season if you drafted Alexander with your first pick, but it's worth a try. (Or if your trade deadline hasn't passed, see if you can pick him up.) As Doug Farrar pointed out this week, the Seattle running game has improved immensely since guard Floyd "Pork Chop" Womack returned to the starting lineup. Alexander may not play the whole game, but he is reportedly going to be the back around the goal line – against the atrocious 49ers run defense.

Wali Lundy vs. Buffalo -- The Bills are much worse against the run than the pass, and with David Carr nursing a bruised shoulder, the game plan should lean on Lundy, who has been a major upgrade over Ron Dayne since coming back to the starting lineup.

Sit

Ronnie Brown vs. Minnesota -- He's not quite in the echelon of must-start backs. Brown is good for about 10 points a week no matter who he's playing, because the Dolphins are committed to running the ball and don't have any other backs of note. But he's not one of those backs who will go off for 180 yards and three touchdowns – especially not against the #1-ranked Vikings run defense. He's not going to be a fantasy abomination or anything, but if you have a better option you wouldn't be crazy to sit Brown.

Ahman Green vs. New England -- This game smells like a Favre-Brady shootout. With New England's run defense working much better than its pass defense, Green shouldn't be a big part of the Packers game plan.

Fred Taylor vs. N.Y. Giants -- The Giants are fifth in the league in run defense, and they're particularly good at defending inside runs. If any Jaguars running back is going to have a great day (which I wouldn't count on) it'll be Maurice Jones-Drew running outside.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Start

Chad Johnson at New Orleans -- Fun with riding a matchup every week, part two. The Saints have the worst pass defense against #1 receivers week after week. 260 yards and two touchdowns might be a bit much to hope for, but Johnson should have a better second half of the season than his first, and that should continue in earnest Sunday.

Santana Moss at Tampa Bay -- I have yet to hit on a Santana Moss recommendation in his up-and-down season, and Moss has fallen totally off the radar the last few weeks, scoring just three points in three games. But I like the switch to Jason Campbell. Pro Football Prospectus features a college quarterback projection system, which rates Campbell between Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger. He won't turn the Redskins into a playoff team, but he should be a major upgrade over Mark Brunell and make Moss into a viable fantasy receiver. (Be sure to check up until game time that Moss will play.)

Drew Bennett at Philadelphia -- Philadelphia's biggest weakness in the secondary is defending passes to #1 receivers. Bennett has obviously developed a comfort level with Vince Young; he and tight end Bo Scaife (Young's former Texas teammate) where the only receivers to catch passes in the first half of last week's game against Baltimore. When Young gets into trouble – and the Eagles defense will put him in trouble – he will look for Bennett.

Sit

Randy Moss at Kansas City -- His feng shui is off this season, and it's left his chi uncentered, impairing his ability to get open and catch the football. Or something. Add to that the fact that the Chiefs have the best defense against #1 receivers, and have had all season, and Moss will need aromatherapy and a nice cup of herbal tea after this game.

Jerricho Cotchery at N.Y. Jets -- The Bears have a ravenous defense, and they're particularly good against #2 receivers. Nobody on Gang Green should be a great play this week, but Cotchery ought to be the worst of the bunch.

Keenan McCardell at Denver -- This really goes for all the Chargers wide receivers. They'll get their yards, but the Broncos defense is strong against receivers and weak against tight ends and running backs. Where do you think Philip Rivers' red zone touchdowns are going to go? Not to the receivers.

TIGHT ENDS

Start

Jerramy Stevens at San Francisco -- Don't bench a big-name tight end for him, but Stevens could outperform the many marginal fantasy tight ends this week. The 49ers are much worse defending passes to tight ends than receivers, and the Seahawks figure to be in the red zone a lot, where Stevens catches his touchdowns.

Sit

Ben Watson at Green Bay -- The Packers are pretty bad at defending passes to wide receivers and pretty good at defending passes to tight ends. The game against Indianapolis notwithstanding, Bill Belichick and the Patriots like to take what the defense gives them, and in this game that will be the wideouts, not Watson.

KICKERS

Start

Mike Vanderjagt vs. Indianapolis -- There's no penalty in fantasy for your kicker honking a potential game-winning field goal. Dallas matches up very well with Indy, so at least the Cowboys should score a lot of points.

Sit

Morten Andersen at Baltimore -- Michael Vick turned back into a pumpkin after Halloween, and at any rate the Ravens defense is what you expect it to be. They struggled in the first half against the Titans without Ray Lewis directing traffic, but they got their act together in the second half. This could be a rough day for the fading Falcons.

DEFENSES

Start

Chiefs vs. Oakland -- Fun with riding a matchup every week, part three. The Raiders are on pace to give up more sacks than anybody ever. Sacks beget interceptions and fumbles, which beget touchdowns, which all beget fantasy points.

Sit

Broncos vs. San Diego -- It's a home game and given recent history that means the Broncos should beat the Chargers. But Denver's inability to mount a pass rush (next-to-last in Adjusted Sack Rate) and their weakness against passes to the tight end and running back will mean this won't be the week Philip Rivers looks like a first-year starter. If that week ever comes.