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11-22-06, 06:14 PM
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Moderator
Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak 
Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 52,027
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Fantasy Football News 11/22/06
Miracles and Paces
Earlier this week Tom Kowalski, who covers the Lions for MichiganLive.com, reported that Kevin Jones had already been ruled out of Thursday's game after spraining his ankle in Week 11. However, the Lions later revealed that Jones' injury wasn't the dreaded high ankle sprain, but rather the normalmedium, low, who knows?variety that tends not to keep a player out for nearly as long. As of Wednesday morning Jones remains listed as questionable on the injury report, although it seems highly unlikely that he'll have enough time to make a full recovery in such a short week. Jones sat out practice Tuesday and could be downgraded after doing the same Wednesday, so make sure to check back Thursday morning if you're giving serious thought to starting him this week. Arlen Harris would replace him as the Lions' every-down back and is a decent Flex play. While Jones may need a Thanksgiving miracle to play, Detroit already used its miracle up with news that Mike Williams will actually put on a uniform and step foot on an NFL field while a football game is being played Thursday. No, it's not some sort of Make-A-Wish Foundation deal for first-round busts in need of cheering uphe's going to be on the Lions' active roster because of injuries to Eddie Drummond and Devale Ellis. Much like in the movie Rudy, I expect a "Mi-ke! Mi-ke! Mi-ke!" chant to gradually overtake the stadium, at which point Williams will sack the opposing quarterback, be carried off the field by teammates, and then star in a series of movies about hobbits. Then I expect coach Rod Marinelli to bench him because, you know, Williams is a wide receiver, not a comically undersized semi-fictional college linebacker or a character in a J.R.R. Tolkien novel. While Mike Williams looks into financing the creation of a way-back time machine using the bonus money the Lions probably think he should have to give back, here are some other notes from around football * Drew Brees' ridiculous Week 11 performance got all the attention, and rightfully sothe man threw for 510 yards without completing a single pass to Marques Colston and lost. However, Brees had been piling up sick yardage long before that, with back-to-back-to-back 300-yard games leading up to Sunday's insanity. As you might expect, Brees leads the NFL in passing yards (3,114) by a wide margin, but it's how he's gotten to the top spot that's intriguing. Prior to their Week 7 bye, the Saints were 5-1 and Brees was averaging an impressive 252 yards per game (that's a 4,000-yard pace, for those of you without calculators). Since then, New Orleans is 1-3 and Brees has thrown for an average of 401 yards per week. Seriously, an average of 401 yards. That's a 6,400-yard pace, which is amusing even over a four-week stretch. He also has nine touchdowns during that span, although they've come along with a pair of three-interception games. The lesson, of course, is that real football is sometimes a whole lot different than fantasy football. While most of the football-watching world wonders what happened to the Saints on their bye week to ruin their seemingly miraculous, out-of-nowhere great season, Brees' fantasy owners are just hoping he'll keep doing whatever he started doing during that week off. With favorable matchups against Atlanta and San Francisco up next on the schedule, it's not ending anytime soon. * I had so much fun with Brees' insane paces, I thought I'd try a couple more. Over the first eight games, Chad Johnson had a grand total of 432 receiving yards and two touchdowns. In the two weeks since then, he has 450 yards and five touchdowns. Prior to Week 10, he was on pace for a massively disappointing 864-yard, four-touchdown season. Now? He's on pace for an NFL-leading 1,491 yards and 11 scores. Of course, Devery Henderson laughs at Johnson's extremeness. Henderson totaled eight catches for 110 yards in the first seven weeks, including a four-game stretch where he failed to grab a single pass. Then he went off for 111 yards on three catches in Week 9 and followed it up with zero catches in Week 10. Total fluke, right? Henderson caught nine passes for 169 yards Sunday. I have no clue how to explain that, so I won't even try, but I will point out that Henderson's yardage pace went from 251 to 442 to 393 to 624 in the span of four weeks. Two-Minute Drill: Coach Tom Coughlin told reporters Tuesday that Eli Manning's job is not in danger, which comes as a surprise to no one except Jared Lorenzen's mom and the cute girl from The View (don't worry, there's only one) Coach Jon Gruden has spent the last week angrily denying rumors that he's hoping to move on to Dallas next season Reports out of Oakland suggest Justin Fargas could challenge LaMont Jordan as the Raiders' every-down back, even after Jordan returns from injury, but that seems highly unlikely given Jordan's reasonable salary going forward After being a non-factor for the first four weeks of the season, rookie Santonio Holmes is averaging four catches and 64 yards over the past six games, topping at least 40 yards in each outing. Red Zone: Philadelphia officially ended Donovan McNabb's season by placing him on injured reserve, so now we'll see if his lengthy recovery is more Carson Palmer or Daunte Culpepper Simeon Rice (shoulder) may have played his last snap in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs placing him on season-ending injured reserve Wednesday and a likely salary-cap cut coming this offseason Wes Welker is probable to play on Thanksgiving despite spraining his ankle in Week 11 A groin injury will likely keep Najeh Davenport from stealing any of Willie Parker's snaps this week It looks like Ben Troupe's season will have ended on a nice touchdown catch Sunday, as he suffered a fractured right ankle on the play. |
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11-22-06, 06:14 PM
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Moderator
Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak
Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
Location: Orlando, Florida
Posts: 52,027
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Re: Fantasy Football News 11/22/06
Stand: Week 12 Rankings
Tatum Bell is expected to be upgraded to probable for Thursday night's game and start against the Chiefs, which raises a difficult question for fantasy leaguers. Can you really bench the Broncos starting running back? In this case, the answer is yes because but Tatum is no lock to finish what he starts. Mike Shanahan reportedly favored Mike Bell in the preseason because Tatum fades as the season wears on. That has happened again in 2006 again because of injury. Shanahan also didn't like Tatum's tendency to slow down as the game wore on. Shanahan cited statistics this summer to prove that Tatum is solid in his first ten carries, and weak after that. Once again, this season has been no different. Tatum Bell is ninth in the NFL with a 4.8 yards-per-carry average in his first ten totes. After that, he falls down to 3.78 yards-per-carry. Mike Bell is the polar opposite. He struggles early in games, but leads the NFL with a 6.4 yards-per-carry average after his first ten carries. Shanahan realizes now that his ideal back is not on the roster; that man was drafted in the first round by the New England Patriots. But the Broncos coach was quick to note this week that the Broncos are still fifth in the NFL in rushing using their mix-and-match formula. Don't expect him to stray from that formula now, which means Tatum Bell owners can expect more inconsistency. I'd start Mike Bell over Tatum on Thanksgiving night. He's healthy and I'd take a strong finisher over a fast starter anytime. Trying to read Mike Shanahan's mind isn't for the faint of heart, but I suspect he feels the same way. Note: We heard the requests and decided to post our rankings a day early because of the holiday. The notes are slightly abbreviated this week, and we'll post the usual Weekend Update on Saturday. Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I also wanted to encourage all readers to call in to our special Fantasy Fix show next Tuesday. Tiffany Simons and I will be taking all questions at 203-569-4707 between 9-10 AM on November 28. Week 12 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: The difference between Marty Schottenheimer circa 2004 and Sean Payton can be seen in Drew Brees' stats. Through ten games, Brees already has nearly identical numbers to his yardage and attempts during his breakout Pro Bowl season of 2004. In a season full of surprises, Brees coming back better than ever post-shoulder surgery is near the top. No one thought the Saints offensive line could protect him. We certainly didn't think Marques Colston, Terrance Copper, and Devery Henderson would become familiar names. Brees' ridiculous 310 yards-per-game average may go up against a terrible Atlanta secondary this week. Michael Vick hasn't been lighting it up in recent weeks, but his rushing totals keep him steady. His 704 rushing yards are almost 500 more than the next closest quarterback, Vince Young, who has 226. Vick should improve this week against New Orleans, who has quietly given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks than any defense except Green Bay this year. The Bengals secondary is playing the worst football in the league. Charlie Frye is not on the same level as Philip Rivers and Drew Brees, but he's making fewer mistakes recently and using Braylon Edwards well. He can sneak out 250 yards and a couple of scores with this matchup. Until the Lions give up on Jon Kitna, I can't completely. The loss of Kevin Jones will force Detroit into passing 40 times on Thanksgiving, so Kitna won't have to play particularly well to rack up yardage. Eli Manning has been playing awful, but this is still a matchup driven business. The Titans have been making more big plays on defense lately, but they also give up way too many. I wouldn't give up on Eli yet as a factor down the stretch. The streaky quarterback's turnaround can start this week. Matt Hasselbeck should play Monday night against the Packers. I wouldn't hesitate to use him in his first game back against a struggling Packers secondary. While Seneca Wallace struggled against the 49ers, he still scored plenty while Hasselbeck was gone. The two Seattle quarterbacks both have a 5.7 TD: INT ratio, among the top five in football. Rex Grossman actually leads the league in the category, but remains inconsistent at best over the last month. He's struggled badly other than one half against the Giants. Chicago is playing their third straight road game and playing a very similar defense to the one that flummoxed Rex to the tune of 119 yards last week. Bill Belichick will scramble his head, just like Eric Mangini. The biggest difference between Joey Harrington and Daunte Culpepper is how many sacks they take. Culpepper was sacked more than any other quarterback in the league while he was playing. Harrington leads the NFL in fewest sacks/per attempt. Drew Brees, Brett Favre, and Peyton Manning are next, showing that mobility is overrated when it comes to avoiding hits. Getting rid of the ball quickly is the most important factor. Ben Roethlisberger's improved play gets a test this week at Baltimore. Pittsburgh's struggles are easy to pinpoint. Roethlisberger has five interceptions inside the opponents' 20 yard-line. No one else in the league has more than two. I won't be confident in Trent Green until Herm Edwards is. I suspect Edwards will continue to throw the ball as little as possible on Thursday, so Green isn't a great fantasy option. Week 12 Running Backs RB Notes: Marion Barber has evolved into the ideal backup running back. He's among the league leaders in first downs per attempt, just behind Michael Vick and Brandon Jacobs. He blocks well and doesn't get caught behind the line of scrimmage. Only Ahman Green has been "stuffed" less for no gain. I had my doubts that Barber could ruin Julius Jones' value, but he's certainly prevented Jones from being a RB1. The two Cowboys are ranked next to each other for fantasy points on the season fifteenth and sixteenth. This is a great week to use them both. Barber should get more playing time off a short rest. It will take more than one terrible week from Steven Jackson post-Orlando Pace to have me worried. If he can't run over the 49ers this week, then it's time for fantasy owners to be concerned. Fred Taylor owners can't quite believe his consistency this season. Taylor is in the top 12 of fantasy backs this year because his worst game since Week 4 is a 79-yard effort against the Titans three weeks ago. He's more active in the passing game than year's past, and Mo Drew is helping to keep Taylor healthy. Just play him already. Kevin Jones isn't expected to play on Thanksgiving. The early rankings are forcing more guesswork than normal with injuries this week (and no tape review!). Until I hear something positive about Reuben Droughns returning, I'll rank Jason Wright where Droughns would be. DeShaun Foster is expected to play Sunday and has a good matchup against the Redskins. Carolina will have a hard time keeping DeAngelo Williams on the bench, though, after last week's effort. Ladell Betts played the majority of snaps in his first start despite a big run by T.J. Duckett in the second half of last week's game. Another tough matchup against Carolina could frustrate Betts' fantasy owners, but expect Joe Gibbs to remain patient with him. Arlen Harris is starting, but he'll probably lose carries to Aveion Cason and has a tough matchup on Thursday. Mike Martz will use Kevin Jones' injury as an excuse to pass 75% of the time. Cedric Houston earned another ten+ touches in the Jets backfield this week. It's hard to guess what Eric Mangini will do with his running backs, but I give Houston the slight edge over Leon Washington because Houston should get the goal-line work. If Warrick Dunn can't get out of his slump against the Saints, expect to see more of Jerious Norwood this week. Rich Eisen of the NFL Network came up with a sweet nickname for Frank Gore: The Inconvenient Truth. Week 12 Wide Receivers WR Notes: It's amazing what the best two-game stretch of all time can do for your season. Chad Johnson is now the top-scoring fantasy wideout on the year, although he's hardly been the most valuable. I passed up a chance to trade for him in one league two weeks ago and have spent most of my time since stabbing myself with a spork. It will be interesting to see if 85 can keep it going against a much better defense this week. Darrell Jackson is the anti-Chad Johnson. He's only topped 100 yards twice, but the man is incapable of putting together two bad games in a row. D-Jack has scored less than 11 points in standard formats only three times all year. That type of consistency doesn't get you headlines, but it puts you in the top-five fantasy wideouts on the year. Deion Branch gets a nice boost in value this week against the Packers, who can't cover secondary receivers. The return of Matt Hasselbeck doesn't hurt. Somewhere after the top 15-20 wideouts each week, it becomes very difficult to separate the WR2/3/4 options. There simply isn't that big a difference between Muhsin Muhammad (ranked 22 this week) and Keyshawn Johnson (ranked 41). Mark Clayton deserves to be included as an every-week starter at this point. Few receivers have been more consistent over the last six weeks. The Steelers secondary provides another solid matchup this week. Joe Horn's high ranking is partially based on Marques Colston likely missing this week's game. Horn would still be a solid option against the Falcons with Colston available, though. Colston will be added on the Weekend Update if he's going to play. Terrance Copper is also questionable as I write this, so Devery Henderson is an excellent pickup and WR3. Larry Fitzgerald's hamstring continues to be a problem, but he has another solid matchup this week. It would be hard to bench him. Bernard Berrian is a shaky play until he puts his rib injury behind him and makes a few catches. Eddie Kennison better hope Tony Gonzalez plays this week. If Gonzo is active, Champ Bailey will probably cover the tight end for much of the game. I ranked Arnaz Battle over Antonio Bryant for the first time all season. If you need certain points, Battle is the safer play. Bryant is still more likely to hit a home run. Ernest Wilford is David Garrard's favorite wideout, making the wideout a weekly option again. Donald Driver's lack of speed isn't hurting his stats. He leads all NFL receivers in yards-after-catch. Week 12 Tight Ends
TE Notes: Tony Gonzalez is a game-time decision, but it sounds like he'll try to suit up at less than 100%. Make sure to check back Thursday night if you plan on using him. Week 12 Kickers
Week 12 Team Defense |
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