Fantasy Football News (11/28/06)

[Hache Man]

Plummer Out, Cutler In
Rumors about the Broncos benching Jake Plummer in favor of Jay Cutler started circulating prior to their Thanksgiving matchup with the Chiefs, but coach Mike Shanahan took his sweet time making it official. Shanahan finally confirmed Monday that Cutler would be taking over as Denver's starter, saying the move was "in the best interest of the football team." As opposed to, you know, the cheerleading squad or the hot dog vendors.

Denver's remaining schedule—Seattle, San Diego, Arizona, Cincinnati, San Francisco—is extremely favorable, particularly for the final three games. Cutler is a must-grab in all leagues and has a ton of keeper-league value. If he plays well against the Seahawks and Chargers, don't hesitate to stick him into your playoff lineup in two-quarterback leagues, although he'll have to be pretty extraordinary to trust as a QB1.

Meanwhile, Shanahan and Cutler both told reporters Monday they've been impressed with how well Plummer handled the demotion. Several other Broncos said they still felt Plummer was a quality player and made it clear the team wasn't calling for him to be benched. Not only is that different from how similar situations have played out, it indicates that there may be another starting job—or at least competitive backup situation—waiting for Plummer in the offseason.

Houston, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Oakland all seem like potential destinations for Plummer, who turns 32 years old next month. When the competition for "veteran training-camp competition" figures to be Drew Bledsoe and Kurt Warner, Plummer should have his pick of jobs. If he's indeed done in Denver, Plummer finishes his Broncos career with a 71-to-46 touchdown-to-interception ratio after posting a 58-to-79 ratio in Arizona.

While Jake The Snake ponders his next career move as The Jay Cutler Era begins, here are some other notes from around football …

* Also in Denver, Shanahan indicated Monday that he expects Tatum Bell to suit up in Week 13 after holding him out of the past two games in an effort to get him over ongoing turf-toe problems. Bell was even more optimistic about his chances of contributing against Seattle, telling reporters: "I'm back, baby. I'm starting, trust me. I'm for real, I'm hungry."

Hungry or not, Tatum figures to split at least a portion of his snaps with Mike Bell, as usual. In fact, given his 23 days off and lack of practice time over that stretch, it would be a surprise to see Tatum carry a full load against the Seahawks, particularly at the goal line. As always, keep an eye on the Broncos' backfield situation throughout the week, but pencil him in as a solid RB2 play.

* Hines Ward underwent arthroscopic knee surgery Monday, which will sideline him for Week 13 and could also keep him out for Week 14 given that the Steelers play two games within five days. Ward, who has missed just one game in his nine-year career, had put together six straight impressive outings prior to leaving Sunday's game against the Ravens in the third quarter.

Rookie Santonio Holmes will replace Ward in the starting lineup and has a chance to be a fantasy asset. He's on pace to gain over 700 yards despite making just one catch in each of the first two games and sitting behind both Ward and Cedrick Wilson on the depth chart. Consider Holmes a solid WR3 option with a chance to move into the borderline WR2 group depending on matchups and how he responds to an increased role.

Two-Minute Drill: With offensive coordinator Greg Olson calling plays Sunday, rather than coach Scott Linehan, Steven Jackson got the ball 32 times … After being stuffed on short yardage Sunday, Michael Robinson's goal-line duties may go back to Frank Gore … Tampa Bay has reportedly opened contract talks with Chris Simms … Dallas released Mike Vanderjagt Monday, replacing him with the slightly less annoying Martin Gramatica … Indianapolis signed Ricky Proehl, who could take over for Brandon Stokley in the No. 3 receiver role … Coach Lovie Smith gave Rex Grossman a vote of confidence Monday, saying: "Rex is our quarterback" … In his ongoing effort to become the new Mike Shanahan, coach Gary Kubiak said undrafted rookie Chris Taylor may begin stealing carries from Wali Lundy … Stat of the Weak: Troy Williamson has 11 drops and 27 catches.

Red Zone: There's speculation that Dallas Clark's knee injury is a torn ACL, but the Colts have yet to officially update his status … Kevin Jones (ankle) returned to practice Monday and is expected to start in Week 13, but his matchup against New England is a poor one … Not only might Gore pick up increased goal-line chances, he promised Monday that he'll "be straight" in Week 13 despite a an ankle injury … With Sage Rosenfels (thumb) placed on injured reserve, David Carr's job is suddenly safe down the stretch … Priest Holmes (neck) will officially be ruled out for the remainder of the season if the Chiefs don't activate him from the PUP list Tuesday … Chris Perry underwent surgery to repair a broken fibula Monday and will soon be placed on injured reserve … With Ronnie Brown (hand) out and Sammy Morris taking over most of the carries, Travis Minor figures to serve as Miami's third-down back.

[Hache Man]

Playoff Planning
Somewhere, Mike Mayock is smiling. The NFL Network draft analyst made his name by boldly ranking Jay Cutler ahead of Matt Leinart and Vince Young last January when most "Draftniks" thought the Vanderbilt product was a second or third round pick. Mayock was quickly vindicated when the preeminant quarterback coach in the NFL traded up to make Cutler the franchise. The kid never led the Commodores to a winning record in college, but now he's starting for an NFL team in the playoff race. If Cutler looks half as good as he did in the preseason, he's worth owning in all leagues.

I tried to write the epitaph to Jake Plummer's season a month ago in this very spot, saying it was time for a change. Plummer rebounded to play his best two games of the season before sliding back into sub-mediocrity. Now he's on the trading block. Shanahan was forced to make the move. The Broncos were not going to win multiple games in the playoffs with Plummer. They probably won't with Cutler either, but Shanny will gets to test-drive his fancy new toy before Christmas.

Like any rookie, Cutler will be inconsistent. The comparisons to Tony Romo don't fly because Romo is a fourth-year veteran with superior options around him. Denver's receiver group and running talent are below average. The biggest advantage working in Cutler's favor is a gorgeous schedule. His first two opponents, the Seahawks and Chargers, aren't particularly good against the pass. His final three opponents (Arizona, Cincinnati, and San Francisco) are sieves. Plummer probably could have put up top-15 stats against those teams and I suspect Cutler could do even better. Consider the rookie an average QB2 the next two weeks, then a possible starter during the final three weeks of the season.

Note: We'll have a fantasy playoffs schedule preview later this week.

Running Backs

Sammy Morris, Dolphins - Without a lot of injuries or job changes this week, Waiver Wired's running back list will have a lot of repeat customers. But Sammy Morris is fresh meat! Well, sort of fresh.

Suspended earlier this season for violating the league's steroid policy, Morris has fashioned an impressive career as a starter/fullback/special teamer/backup/emergency starter. He once started at running back for the Bills under … Wade Phillips! Fantasy heads may remember Morris as Dave Wannstedt's last starting running back during Ricky Williams' first excellent adventure, beating out luminaries like Brock Forsey and Leonard Henry. Morris did a capable, rugged job on a poor team when called upon, just like he did in place of Ronnie Brown on Thanksgiving day.

Morris is a versatile player who can stay on the field during third downs and near the goal line. He doesn't have exceptional skills, but is capable enough to perform what's asked. Brown is expected to miss at least one game and possibly more, so Morris is worth picking up. Unfortunately, he faces Jacksonville and New England in successive weeks. With such difficult matchups, Morris is a nice bench player or a flex option for the needy.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Cedric Benson, Bears- Benson's best two games as a pro are his last two. He's still limited on passing downs, but Benson is starting to run with more aggression between the tackles. Thomas Jones is on pace for over 340 carries and the Bears would be wise to ease off their starter down the stretch. With matchups against the Rams, Bucs, Lions, and Packers coming up, I can see a scenario where Benson splits carries with Jones because Chicago is winning easily. Benson could put up sneaky Maurice Jones-Drew like flex position numbers in December.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Cedric Houston, Jets - Less people own Cedric Houston now than they did in Week 1. He's available in 80% of fantasy leagues! I can't imagine using Houston as a fantasy starter , but he led the Jets in carries against the Texans and earned goal-line carries. Kevan Barlow and Leon Washington are likely to stay in the mix, but any short-yardage back getting 10-15 touches a week is worth owning. Houston strikes me as one of those players who may come out of "nowhere" to put up solid numbers in the fantasy playoffs.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Jason Wright, Browns - Among healthy options, it would be hard to find a more disappointing player in fantasy leaguers than Reuben Droughns. At least Edgerrin James won't get benched. Droughns was a consensus late second round pick before the season (although Rotoworld did include him in our preseason busts article), but he was quietly supplanted by Jason Wright as the team's primary carrier last week.

Droughns was healthy enough to start and play special teams, but Jerome Harrison and Wright were at tailback far more. It's possible Droughns will get more work down the stretch, but what's the point? He's averaging 3.1 yards-per-carry this season and is wearing down physically for the third straight season. Droughns is a gutsy player, but he was a backup fullback for two NFL teams for a reason. His skills are average and he's often playing hurt.

Jason Wright probably isn't any better. The second-year undrafted back out of Northwestern is averaging only three yards-per-carry. The Browns have a difficult schedule until Week 16, so it probably doesn't matter who is carrying the ball for Cleveland. Wright is worth owning in most leagues because he should get ten or more touches a week, but he won't be much of a flex option until Week 16 against Tampa.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Jerious Norwood, Falcons - I've beaten this issue to death, so I'll keep it brief. Warrick Dunn is averaging fewer than 3.2 yards-per-carry the last six weeks, while Norwood is still at 6.0 for the season. If Atlanta keeps sliding, Norwood put up a few 100-yard games after the Falcons get eliminated from playoff contention.

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues, even eight-team ones with small rosters.

Wide Receivers

Marcus Robinson, Vikings - Play fantasy football long enough, and Marcus Robinson will burn you, probably twice. He's tall. He jumps. He scores. At every stop during his maddening eight-year career, Robinson has interrupted long stretches of inactivity with sudden, explosive production. There was the 131-yard, four touchdown game in 2003 after failing to top 15 yards in eleven games prior. There was his three touchdown game in Week 12 last season out of nowhere.

Now back in the starting lineup, veteran fantasy heads can smell a volcanic Robinson eruption simmering. He's back in the starting lineup and ostensibly Minnesota's top receiver. He faces Detroit (Week 14) and Green Bay (Week 16) during the fantasy playoffs. Choose the right week and Robinson will carry your entire team from the WR3 spot. Choose wrong and start planning for baseball.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Travis Taylor, Vikings - The anti-Marcus Robinson. There's almost no chance for a big game, but Taylor is usually good for 3-5 catches and 30-60 yards. If you are into that sort of thing.

Recommendation:Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Marty Booker, Dolphins - Booker has outscored Chris Chambers in fantasy leagues this season despite missing a game and having 44 less targets. The Dolphins passing game is likely to slow down the next few weeks against the Jaguars and Patriots, and it's difficult to predict which receiver of their three-headed monster will have a big game. Booker is worth owning, but not starting.

Recommendation:Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Patrick Crayton, Cowboys - The Tony Romo express shows no signs of slowing down. Dallas plays the Giants, Saints, and Falcons the next three weeks. None of them have the depth to cover an explosive third receiver like Crayton. He's worth owning as a fantasy reserve in most leagues.

Recommendation:Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Reche Caldwell, Patriots - Matchups with Detroit, Houston, and Tennessee still on the docket for New England's best wideout.

Recommendation:Should be owned in all leagues

Santonio Holmes, Steelers - Holmes is expected to replace Hines Ward in the starting lineup and should be a decent WR3 play until Ward is back. Holmes has done more with less playing time than Cedrick Wilson this season, who he will start across from.

Recommendation:Should be owned in all leagues

Vincent Jackson, Chargers - There is a small possibility that Jackson could supplant Keenan McCardell in the starting lineup. Risk-averse Marty Schottenheimer is unlikely to make that move, but McCardell is hurt and Jackson replaces him in the red zone anyhow. Jackson has led San Diego's wideouts in targets the last two weeks and has impressive physical skills.

Recommendation:Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Quarterbacks

Joey Harrington, Dolphins - One of my most frequent emailers has been dying to drop Jon Kitna and finally picked up Joey Harrington after his Thanksgiving Day outing. I like what Harrington has done in the Miami offense, but I wasn't wild about the move because of Miami's schedule. There isn't a good matchup on the docket. Jacksonville, New England, Buffalo, and the Jets are all playing improved pass defense. Harrington will be lucky to make it through that stretch without some "Same old Joey" articles surfacing.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 2 QB leagues

Josh McCown, Lions - Speaking of Kitna, questions about his job security are unlikely to quiet after the Patriots get through with him this week. Coach Rod Marinelli speaks so highly of Kitna, though, I doubt he will pull him to look at a candidate to play next year like McCown. Fantasy playoff matchups against Minnesota and Green Bay will make the Lions starter attractive, whoever it is.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 2 QB leagues or for Kitna owners

Brad Johnson, Vikings - Bear with me. One of the most important assets when searching for a waiver pickup, just like searching for a significant other, is availability. And Brad Johnson is very available. He's owned in less than 40% of fantasy leagues out there, which is amazing for a quarterback who has started every game this season.

Johnson faces the Bears this week, but may have the best fantasy playoff schedule of any quarterback: @ Detroit, New York Jets, and @ Green Bay. Lets say you don't even consider Johnson against the Jets, who have been playing improved defense. The Lions and Packers give up an average of 21 fantasy points a game to quarterbacks this season! Johnson averages 14.5. If those two numbers meet in the middle, you have a decent quarterback option. That's all you can ask for from a waiver pickup.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

Gus Frerotte, Rams- Marc Bulger has taken a lot of hits and is complaining of sore ribs. Bulger owners with an extra roster spot may want to consider backing up their injury-prone starter while they can.

Recommendation: Worth a look for Bulger owners

Chad Pennington, Jets - Yet another quarterback with a tasty December schedule. Pennington has limitations, but he will be useful in a Week 13 start against Green Bay and a fantasy playoff matchup against Minnesota in Week 15.

Recommendation: Worth owning in 12-team leagues

A.J. Feeley, Eagles - Jeff Garcia has a strained forearm and probably won't survive until Week 17 as Philadelphia's starter. Philadelphia's best remaining matchups are at the Giants and Redskins in Weeks 14-15.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 2QB leagues

Tight End

Ben Utecht, Colts - With Dallas Clark injured, Utecht's surprising season should continue to improve. Utecht has 17 catches over the last five weeks, good for tenth among tight ends. You could do worse.

Recommendation:Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Bryan Fletcher, Colts - Now starring in Ben Utecht's old role… Bryan Fletcher!

Recommendation:Worth a look in deep leagues

Randal Williams, Raiders - We're getting desperate when Randal Williams cracks the list two straight weeks. Oakland's starter has improved since Aaron Brooks took over and now has 12 catches for 111 yards. Is that something you might be interested in?

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Bo Scaife, Titans - Still available in four out of five fantasy leagues, Scaife continues his march to being the No. 13 fantasy tight end of the season. Scaife will have the occasional whitewash because Vince Young is inconsistent, but he's now Tennessee's only real threat at tight end the rest of the season. Scaife has 12 catches for 152 yards and two touchdowns over the last four weeks. He's producing like a low-end TE1.

Recommendation:Should be owned in all leagues