Fantasy Football News 12/08/06

[Hache Man]

Hey, Willie!

Somewhere, the great Gordon Shumway must be exulting in Willie Parker's performance from Thursday, if for no other reason than to yell his first name.

Pittsburgh's speedy halfback absolutely shredded the Browns last night, shooting through gaping holes while gashing Cleveland's front seven. Parker finished the contest with careers high in rushing attempts (32) and yards on the ground (223), and broke a 36-year-old franchise record in the process. The inability of the Browns to stop the Steelers' run game was completely demoralizing, and it ruined the surprisingly effective "debut" of Derek Anderson in the process.

Anderson, a second-year player who played much of last week's victory over the Chiefs, could have given Cleveland a fighting chance against Pittsburgh's exotic defensive schemes. The Browns, for the most part, employed a nice game plan, and Anderson made a number of excellent decisions with the football. But the Cleveland receivers afflicted his first NFL start with a glut of dropped passes. Those, combined with the shoddy run defense, made it nearly impossible for the former sixth-round pick to mount any sort of offense.

Still, Anderson (21-37, 276 yards, TD, INT) played well enough to spark a legitimate quarterback controversy in Cleveland. If the bone bruise in Charlie Frye's right wrist keeps him out of action next week, Anderson, who only made one major mistake against the Steelers, will face the biggest test of his young career: the Baltimore Ravens. Another performance comparable to that of Thursday could create some legitimate buzz surrounding Cleveland's young offense in 2007.

The four starting receivers from Thursday night's game each made some noise. Without Hines Ward (knee) and Cedrick Wilson (ankle), Steelers rookie Santonio Holmes (4-81-0) and undrafted second-year player Nate Washington (2-67-1) got their big chances to produce, although frankly, it's hard to believe that the Steelers attempted any passes given how well the ground game was working. But Holmes flashed some of his dynamic ability to run after the catch, and Washington was targeted multiple times in the end zone. Each should remain respectable options as third fantasy receivers as long as Ward and Wilson remain out. Holmes, however, could become an enticing sleeper pick for 2007 if he were to beat out Wilson in training camp.

As for the Browns, the aforementioned drops – especially those of slot receiver Dennis Northcutt – forced Anderson to look for a pair of reliable hands. That resulted in Joe Jurevicius (7-111-0) having his best statistical performance of the year. Braylon Edwards (4-86-1) was relatively quiet before a 45-yard touchdown in garbage time, but fantasy owners will take it. Kellen Winslow (4-19-0) and Steve Heiden (2-21-0) were disappointingly uninvolved in the offense.



Patriots rookie RB Laurence Maroney (questionable, back) again missed a portion of practice on Thursday after reportedly working out in a delicate manner the day before. Word is that he didn't attack drills with his usual vigor, and we would be surprised if he suffered anything less than a concussion last week against the Lions. Corey Dillon may take a heavier workload if Maroney were to miss Sunday's affair with the Dolphins, but could just as likely share carries with Kevin Faulk, Patrick Pass and Heath Evans. Miami has allowed an average of just 3.5 yards per rushing attempt, so none of the New England backs is a particularly safe option in Week 14.

Many loudly chastised the Texans for bypassing Reggie Bush on draft day, but many more rebuked former GM Charlie Casserly and management for ignoring Vince Young and Matt Leinart. The decision is starting to look like it might have been a ghastly mistake: Houston Chronicle writer John McClain believes that David Carr won't be with the Texans next season. The Texans exercised an option on Carr in the offseason to keep him with the team through 2008, partially with the belief that new head coach Gary Kubiak could transform him into a sound NFL quarterback. Despite a few nice performances, that hasn't happened.

Compounding matters is the fact that Mario Williams, while more effective before dealing with his plantar fasciitis, is only the second best defensive rookie on the team. DeMeco Ryans has had a fantastic rookie campaign at middle linebacker, and a number of other 4-3 speed rushers – Mark Anderson, Elvis Dumervil, and Darryl Tapp, for instance – were available in the later rounds. If Carr parts ways with Houston during the offseason, the selection of Williams may be second-guessed for years to come.

The Eagles reportedly want to make sure that Donté Stallworth can stay healthy before trying to sign him to a long-term contract extension. The fifth-year receiver has been the perfect "one" to Reggie Brown's "two" this season, but problems with his hamstring, something that also bothered him in 2002 and 2003, have limited his playing time and effectiveness. Locking Stallworth up is imperative for Philadelphia's receiving corps, but he isn't slated to become a free agent until after the 2007 season. Talks could begin next training camp if he finishes this year on the right note.

ESPN's John Clayton has reported that Chris Weinke will start at quarterback for the Panthers in Week 14. Jake Delhomme has a partially torn thumb ligament that has prevented him from practicing the last two days, and he is expected to attempt some individual drills today to determine whether he is healthy enough to act as the backup versus the Giants. Either way, fantasy owners should be bracing for struggles out of Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson, as Weinke has not started an NFL game since 2002. Meanwhile, DeShaun Foster (probable, elbow) fully practiced on Thursday for the second consecutive day. It looks like he will start and split carries with DeAngelo Williams; that should limit the productivity of each.

Two-Minute Drill: Though Jets RB Cedric Houston took most of the first-team reps in practice yesterday, Kevan Barlow received a little time with the starters. … Giants coach Tom Coughlin has mentioned a desire to give more playing time to rookie WR Sinorice Moss. … Lions OC Mike Martz says that WR Mike Williams is too heavy to play anywhere other than the slot. … The Cowboys have claimed former 49ers SS Tony Parrish off waivers. … Tom Brady has filed a lawsuit against Yahoo! for its use of his image and likeness in fantasy football advertisements both in print and online. … Lions SS Kenoy Kennedy pleaded guilty to drunken driving on Thursday. … Contract talks between the Falcons and Patrick Kerney, who will become a free agent in the offseason, have begun. … San Francisco linebacker Jeff Ulbrich will start in the middle in Week 14. … Rookie Omar Gaither will remain Philadelphia's starting weak-side linebacker in Week 14.

Red Zone: Brian Westbrook (probable, toe) practiced fully again Thursday. … Marques Colston (questionable, ankle) and Joe Horn (questionable, groin) missed at least a portion of practice again Thursday. Reggie Bush, meanwhile, returned to practice and was removed from the Week 14 injury report. … Willis McGahee (questionable, ankle) missed his second straight day of practice yesterday. … Tatum Bell is not on the Week 14 injury report. … Torry Holt (probable, knee) practiced again Thursday. … Chiefs coach Herm Edwards did not discuss Tony Gonzalez (probable, shoulder), who missed his second straight day of practice, at Thursday's press conference. … T.J. Housmandzadeh (probable, back) missed at least a portion of practice again yesterday. … After being listed with ailments in 10 of the first 13 weeks, Todd Heap is not on the injury report in Week 14. … Packers RB Ahman Green (probable, knee) and TE David Martin (questionable, hip) were able to return to practice on Thursday. … Cardinals RB Marcel Shipp (probable, ribs), who will likely resume his role as the team's goal-line back, returned to practice yesterday. … Rams WR Kevin Curtis (probable, calf) sat out on Thursday after fully working out on Wednesday. … Titans rookie RB LenDale White (questionable, hip/flu) will be inactive in Week 14 if he doesn't practice today. … Broncos kicker Jason Elam (hamstring) is expected to play this Sunday. … Keenan McCardell (calf) will be a game-time decision in Week 14.

It seems likely that the regular season of Bears DT Tommie Harris (knee, hamstring) is over, but the team may keep him active in hopes that he returns for the playoffs. … Colts FS Bob Sanders (questionable, knee), who was expected to practice on Thursday, was unable to do so. Indianapolis' strong safety, Antoine Bethea (shoulder), will play in Week 14. … Chiefs WLB Derrick Johnson (ankle) was upgraded to probable after practicing Thursday. … Giants MLB Antonio Pierce (probable, knee) is expected to practice today after missing yesterday's session. Michael Strahan (doubtful, foot) is not likely to play this week. … The Bills added rookie SS Donte Whitner to the injury report as questionable with a hamstring injury. … Browns rookie ILB D'Qwell Jackson was limping after Thursday night's loss and underwent post-game X-rays. … Vikings DE Erasmus James (injured reserve, torn ACL) said Thursday that he also sustained a partially torn medial collateral ligament in Week 2.

[Hache Man]

Tips for playoff success
Are you still beating yourself up because you did not start Marcel Shipp ahead of Larry Johnson?

If you managed to reach the playoffs with all of those points on the bench, don't sweat it — and don't ever think realistically about playing Shipp. Flukes happen, and Shipp's three-touchdown game against the Rams might go down as the biggest fluke of the year.

Yet they are especially troublesome at this time of year, when every point can determine your playoff fate.

How do you avoid the Shipps of the world?

With the postseason starting in most leagues this week, how do you make sure you don't wake up on Monday morning and see more points on your bench than in the starting lineup? Aside from throwing darts, you can do a few things to ease your agony and get the most out of your team when it counts.

Know your starters. You spent the first 13 weeks tinkering with your roster, trying out different combinations in the face of different matchups and determining your best lineup. You know who the regulars are. You know if Tony Romo is your every-week quarterback by now; you know Deuce McAllister should start every week, as should Marvin Harrison, especially when he pouts.

Don't mess with that, even with the Colts playing the Jaguars this week or even in the face of potential bad weather. Stars are stars because they come through when you need them most, but they certainly will do you no good if you don't give them a chance.

Trust your instincts. Every spot in your lineup is probably not locked in. If it is, congratulations on having perhaps the most stress-free fantasy team on record. But you're probably always thinking about that flex spot or your No. 3 wide receiver. If you look at the upcoming schedule and have a gut feeling that the Bills will trample the Jets, then go ahead with Lee Evans as your extra receiver. The NFL is full of enough surprises that when advice from we so-called experts does not offer a clear-cut answer, go with your gut. It already has helped get you this far.

Make every position count. You might have gone through your draft and most of the season without worrying about your kicker or your defense. And if LaDainian Tomlinson has been your star all along, you probably would have been OK even if you had the Packers as your starting defense. But the games are too important now to punt a position or two because you don't think it's worth the effort. You're playing the other elite teams in your league, the games will be closer and banking on four TDs a week from Tomlinson is not the grandest strategy. Heck, he scored only twice last week. Spend an extra three minutes checking the waiver wire this week and find a kicker other than Shaun Suisham.

Pay attention. Don't just check the matchups every week and make sure you still have all of your regular starters in the lineup. If there are any questions, stay up on the news throughout the week. Keep track of injury updates. If Marques Colston plays this week, he is not the only one affected; so are Drew Brees, Devery Henderson and Terrance Copper. And be sure to check the weather forecast. No sense going out on a limb with your Evans pick if he is playing in a blizzard.

Don't overanalyze. My e-mail box is full most weeks, but especially this one, with questions about whether it's worth playing Michael Jenkins instead of Joey Galloway because your opponent is starting Michael Vick or whether starting three Titans players is too many (it is). Simplify your decisions down to how you can get the most points out of your lineup. If that means starting Jenkins over Galloway — and it probably doesn't — then OK. But your job is getting the most points out of your team, not strategizing about how your guys counterbalance your opponent's.

Recognize your situation. Even in the playoffs, there are times to take chances and there are times to play it safe. If you can look at your opponent's lineup and know you need a miracle to pull off a win, then play hit-or-miss guys such as Vick and Chris Henry. If a reasonable approach will work, go with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who is far more likely to get 70-80 yards but less likely to score three times.

Be decisive. Make your choice and live with it. Don't spend days thinking and rethinking your choices, swapping guys in and out of the lineup. You'll only second-guess yourself that much more if you're wrong. Once you have decided to play Jerricho Cotchery, stick with your move (assuming you're not benching Reggie Wayne to do so). You can find far more enjoyable ways to spend your weekend than tying yourself in knots about Cotchery's prospects.

Around the league

One of the big decisions this week will be whether to play Saints running back Reggie Bush against the Cowboys after he filled up a week's worth of highlight film with his four-TD performance. Plenty of owners actually kept Bush in a third running-back slot as he struggled through the season, but if you had benched him, it is hard not to promote him if you do not have clear starters ahead of him. His potential always has been tantalizing. Unless you have players you know will be solid ahead of him, do not take the risk of Bush showing he finally has figured things out on national TV.

Browns quarterback Charlie Frye's wrist injury could be almost catastrophic to any remaining hope for tight end Kellen Winslow II and wide receiver Braylon Edwards. New quarterback Derek Anderson will have trouble getting the ball downfield, especially with his first start coming on the road in a rivalry game against a Steelers team that should have had a shutout last week. Winslow could have been a starter on many teams, with Edwards a plausible flex option. Plan to go on without them until Anderson proves he can do something.

The Broncos indicated they would expand the playbook in rookie quarterback Jay Cutler's first start, not shrink it. But head coach Mike Shanahan certainly did not get past the first couple of pages of it against the Seahawks, and he probably will not do much more against the Chargers. If Shanahan was not willing to let Cutler wing it in his first home start, how will he feel when he sees Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips chasing Cutler? Now is a time to sit Javon Walker if you can.

[Hache Man]

Things I'd Say to My Players


This week I'll share some things I'd like to say to the guys on my fantasy squad. Then I'll talk about Trent Green, Vince Young, Brandon Jacobs, Robbie Gould, and other players. Finally, fantasy sports' best emailers share their coping strategies for wives.
Thought of the Week: Things I'd Say to My Players
We all yell at the TV when watching games that involve players on our fantasy squads. "Dump it to Bush! Dump it to Bush!! For the love of God, would you dump it to Bush!!!!" Of course, some part of us (apparently the less dominant part) recognizes that our words are fruitless no matter how loud, urgent, or derogatory. But what if we were somehow given the opportunity to speak with our players one on one? What would we say to them? Well, I'm sure you have your ideas, and I'd love to hear them (jgangi@rotoworld.com). In the meantime, here's what I'd say:

• There's no "I" in team…but there is one in "long-term contract extension."
• Would it be possible to reschedule your grandma's funeral for the bye week?
• Why block when you can call for a lateral?
• Okay, explain to me again why you shouldn't line up at tight end.
• Are you sure that's enough stick-em?
• What better time to catch a defense off guard then when they expect you to take a knee?
• Those who can't settle for touchbacks.
• Deion never batted it down!
• Rumbling down the field for a touchdown makes a much better highlight that falling on the ball.
• You'll be fine. Slap some Ben Gay on it.
• Of course coach tells you to hand it off over and over when you have a big lead. But audibling for a deep routes would show him you're a natural leader.
• It's spelled "4-chlordehydromethyltestosterone."
• Coach wants to rest you before the playoffs? Won't that hurt your season totals and ultimately your next contract?
• Just look at TO or either of the Johnsons….Demanding the ball works.
• Clearly, your doctor is overreacting.

Got more? Send them to jgangi@rotoworld.com.
Players of Note
Trent Green – With 297 yards and four scores, Green looked like the fantasy gem from previous years against the Browns last week. The problem, however, is that he has awful matchups the rest of the way: Baltimore, San Diego, Oakland, and Jacksonville. None of those teams allow more than 200 yards per game.
Vince Young – Wow, that makes back-to-back impressive comeback performances for the rookie. So now we have to start taking the kid that much more seriously. To the credit of the Titans' coaching staff, they've implemented an offense similar to the system at the University of Texas in which Young thrived. Ultimately, it's his rushing yards (147 over the last two weeks) that make him attractive from a fantasy perspective.
Jay Cutler – With the success of Tony Romo, it's natural to get your hopes up with regard to the highly touted Cutler. But keep in mind that Romo is the exception to the rule. Most young gunslingers struggle initially, as Cutler did last week. Not that it was all bad—he did throw for 143 yards and two scores—but he definitely looked the part of the rookie (especially on one play where he just tossed it up like Drew Bledsoe to avoid a sack, and the pass got picked off for a defensive touchdown). Perhaps he'll show more poise in his second outing, as Romo did; or perhaps John Madden was right when he said that some quarterbacks (like Brett Favre) just have something in their personality that causes them to make bad decisions. If nothing else, the kid has some technique issues that need addressing. One thing is certain: He's not an attractive option against a solid San Diego defense this week.
Aaron Brooks – After touting him as a guy who might have some value, I'm now throwing in the towel on Brooks. If you can't get it done against Houston, then you can't be trusted to produce in any of the final weeks.
Reggie Bush – If we'd forgotten, Bush's 168-total-yard, four-total-touchdown performance last week reminded us that this guy is a special player. In fact, with his eye-popping speed, head-shaking moves, and jaw-dropping cutback ability, he truly looks like the next LaDainian Tomlinson. Unfortunately for his owners, the Saints have so many weapons right now that you never know who will be highlighted in a given game. As Bush himself put it, last week was his "turn to shine"; this week could be Devery Henderson or Deuce McAllister's. But rest assured that one day in the not too distant future, this kid will be putting up numbers like Brian Westbrook.
Brandon Jacobs – Just a heads up for next year's draft: Don't sleep on Jacobs! Tiki Barber's retirement opens the door for Jacobs to emerge as a valuable fantasy RB. At 260 pounds, he's probably the toughest halfback to tackle in the NFL. And he has surprising speed for a guy that large, as evidenced by his 43-yard romp against the Cowboys. He boasts and impressive 4.8 yards-per-carry average, and you'll never have to worry about someone stealing his goal-line carries! He's obviously not known for catching the ball out of the backfield, but his 10 receptions on the season (for 140 yards) offer some hope after he went all of his rookie season without a catch. If he slips to the fourth round, he'll be a bargain.
Ron Dayne – Certainly, Dayne's 95-yard performance last week was enticing…especially given that he got to carry the ball 18 times. If you have room, he's worth a pickup. But be aware that Wali Lundy is still the starter (for now at least). In fact, Texans Coach Gary Kubiak referred to Dayne as a "second-half runner." Err on the side of caution and keep him benched until he proves to be a consistent contributor.
Matt Jones – Though his huge game last week (six catches, 128 yards, TD) provided more production than his previous three games combined, Jones is worth grabbing. It seems that he's finally healthy and out of Jack Del Rio's dog house.
Robbie Gould – After looking like this year's version of Neil Rackers, kicking 17 field goals in the first five weeks, Gould's production has dropped dramatically. Since that point, he's kicked just nine over a seven-week span. Not that it's his fault—he's only missed one attempt on the season, but his opportunities have been limited of late. With Chicago's offense struggling and the cold weather moving in, don't expect him to regain that early season glory.
The Trash Dump
To submit a question or comment to the Trash Dump, email jgangi@rotoworld.com.
The following are in response to last week's column on "Coping Strategies for Wives."
One wife's response:
Tip #4: Come to Terms with the fact that your husband and his friends are Losers.
Tip #5: Realize that many men have an inability (or simply refuse) to prioritize what is most important in life.
Tip #6: If all else fails, realize that there are many fish in the sea - quite a few of whom don't bother with fantasy sports and who would be more than willing to spend their free time with their loved ones instead of with a computer screen and a bunch of losers. Move on if you must.
- Gulliver
Ouch. Might be time for a stop at the floral shop.
My wife and her friends/sisters do fantasy football league, but they draft by hotness {using a } a roto mag with players' pics….We live in Massachusetts, and Tom Brady always goes first. It works out well and she actually knows who Matt Leinart, Tony Gonzalez and Will Demps are. But I like the V-string and boyshorts idea better.
- Matt
Hey, you're right...at least they can relate on SOME level...on their own terms. Hats off!
When my wife and I first got married she once asked, "I've heard it's a good idea to show up ready for the first game on Sunday topless, with a six-pack in one hand and two dozen buffalo wings in the other, that a good idea?" My response: "Yes, yes it is."
- R
Agreed...assuming your buds are not over.
I have found my self drawn away when my wife walks out with nothing but a g-string on and asking to play twister on a slightly oiled game board.
- The Superchronics!
That usually does it!
Tip #4: Use the time Wisely. Go shopping. Watch "The Notebook" again. Do all those things that cause us to roll our eyes that you deep down know we REALLY don't want to do. What better time to have some "me" time.
- Kelly
Very logical!
Jonathan: a couple other suggestions for the wives/girlfriends:
Become one of his fantasies: A couple times a week, try wearing one of those pro cheerleader outfits like those worn on the Dallas Cowboy and Tampa Bay Buc sidelines. If that doesn't work, go a little more hardcore. Handcuffs and whips aren't just for disciplining the children, you know...
Use it to your advantage: Start collecting markers to use when you need him to handle household repairs once the weather breaks in the spring. "I didn't say anything when you sat on your butt every Sunday for almost a half a year. Now put the darn shelf up in the powder room!" The markers are also effective in helping you get your way when you play the dreaded "I want to do something as a family this weekend" card.
Be tricky: Hit the mall when it opens on Sunday and leave the car lights on in the parking lot. Call him at 12:50 for a jump start. When he gets there, suggest lunch in the Chili's bar you just so happened to park near. Whether you mean it or not, tell him you'll sit with your back to the TV and will only expect eye contact during commercial breaks.
Try guilt: The American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS) determined that 25.8% of Americans adhere to either the Jewish or Catholic faiths, the two religions acknowledged for first inventing, then perfecting guilt. That gives you a 1 in 4 shot that your man is susceptible to guilt. Spread it on thick. If you don't, it's your own darn fault.
- thom bittner, dayton, md
Dude, who's side are you on here? I was half expecting your next tip to be "Put dog food in the meatloaf" or "Sleep with his brother" or "Invite your mother to live with you" (in order of severity, of course).
As a long-standing fantasy football wife, the best advice is to get your partner involved! I would watch the games with my husband and he'd ask me questions like, "What do you think about starting this guy over that guy next week" etc. and made me a part of it. I started quietly researching stuff on my own and eventually took over a spot and have had a team of my own for the last three years. Now our conflicts involve around the fact that I have done better in the league since I joined than he has (Super Bowl champion both years). Oh well...can't win 'em all, right?
- Cathy
Brilliant!
How to recognize the breaking point between wives and fantasy football:

• Your wife somehow, inadvertently, removes access to the Internet from your laptop
• Your recliner is moved out of the TV room
• Your pool table is taken down and your sports room changed into a kid's playroom
• She simply shuts off the TV during the Sunday game and then leaves you with the kids

- Susan

I like this! Here are some more:

• You notice a hatchet protruding from your head
• The cable guy keeps showing up on Sunday afternoon to fix the bedroom connection.
• She sends you a postcard from Hedonism II.

Jonathan, when are you going to write an article for men who are not into fantasy but are in relationships/marriages to women who play? Because that's my dilemma. My ex-husband is completely mesmerized/disturbed/you name it at my obsession with my fantasy team. Perhaps you can provide me tips on dating men who aren't as into fantasy as I am?
- Betsey K. Easy: Ask him if he'd rather you take up shopping as your hobby.

[Hache Man]

Playoff Potholes
Almost every pick either directly or indirectly references DVOA, a Football Outsiders' stat that evaluates players and teams based not on their total output but on the quality of their play compared to the rest of the NFL's quality of play in similar situations. For a more thorough explanation of DVOA you can go to FootballOutsiders.com.

QUARTERBACKS

Start

Vince Young at Houston -- Reggie Bush's four-touchdown coming out party last week has people revisiting the question whether the Texans should have taken Bush instead of Mario Williams. The only logical thing to happen now is for Young to have a huge day against the mostly skill-free Texans back seven to make everyone question whether the Texans should have taken the Longhorn Messiah instead.

Michael Vick at Tampa Bay -- Even with the season he's having this year, Ben Roethlisberger had a pretty good day against the Bucs last week. Even with the season he's having, Vick has a decent day last week. If Vick can step up to "pretty good," it will vault him and the Falcons right into the heart of the NFC wild card race. After all, they'll be over .500, so they have to be on pace to make the NFC playoffs, right?

Jeff Garcia at Washington -- I still don't love Jeff Garcia at this stage of his career, but he's got this going for him: He's not the Redskins defense.

Sit

Marc Bulger vs. Chicago -- There's very little the Chicago defense doesn't do well. That includes putting pressure on the quarterback from the defensive line, which means Bulger's poor play since Orlando Pace's injury should continue.

David Carr vs. Tennessee -- This is a gut call as much as anything, but the Titans are playing a lot better lately. They have the second-highest positve differential between defensive DVOA and weighted DVOA (behind, interestingly, the Texans), meaning whatever stats or indicators you look at for the Titans, they're playing a lot better than that right now.

Trent Green vs. Baltimore -- There are two reasons why you shouldn't take last week's four-TD effort against the Browns as a sign that Green is going to be a top-shelf fantasy playoff quarterback. First of all, that was one of those Twilight Zone games that happens now and then, where cats lie with dogs and nothing is as it seems. Witness Derek Anderson. Second, it came against a Browns defense that, while decent against the pass, had to work feverishly to keep up with Larry Johnson. Baltimore will not have so much trouble.

RUNNING BACKS

Start

Thomas Jones at St. Louis -- The Rams defense has fallen off a cliff lately; their weighted defense DVOA (which takes more account of recent games that older games) ranks next-to-last in the league, and their run defense has been the major culprit. Unless the Bears put in the JV squad and Cedric Benson at halftime, Jones should have a big day.

Fred Taylor vs. Indianapolis -- Maurice Jones-Drew may score the long touchdowns, but Taylor is the main man in the Jacksonville run game, and in particular is the guy who mans the middle, where the Colts are most vulnerable.

Ahman Green at San Francisco -- The Packers' run of miserable run defending opponents continues. Green ran for 102 yards against the Jets even though the Pack was down 31-0 at halftime. This week won't be so bad, so Green should log more than his 14 carries from a week ago.

Sit

Kevin Jones vs. Minnesota -- The Vikings are outstanding against the run this year. Not only that, they're excellent against passes to running backs, which is huge for Kevin Jones, who ranks fourth among running backs in receptions.

Reggie Bush at Dallas -- The Cowboys can tackle. That is a key distinguishing feature between them and the 49ers. Bush owners, you got four touchdowns out of him last week; don't get greedy thinking it'll keep happening.

Edgerrin James vs. Seattle -- He had 100 yards last week. Kudos. But it was against the Rams, so that definitely tarnishes the luster a bit. The Seahawks defense isn't great against the run, but that's because they give up a ton of long runs. So do the Rams, and James' longest run Sunday was 11 yards. For years James has been a steady runner who doesn't bust the big play. The Seahawks can bottle him up at the line most of the time, and he can't make them pay the few times he gets to the second level.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Start

Roy Williams vs. Minnesota -- The Vikings have a great defense, to be sure (fifth in DVOA, #1 against the run), but they're weak against #1 receivers. Since their other receivers are quarterbacks or safeties, #1 receivers are all the Lions have.

Marty Booker vs. New England -- The Patriots have emerged from their roughly season-and-a-half-long funk of lousy pass defense -- except when it comes to #2 receivers. The Pats are in the top 10 in virtually every Football Outsiders defensive stat, but 25th against second receivers. Booker's a risky play because he has the wherewithal to score nothing at all, but he's actually a better start than Chris Chambers.

Antonio Bryant vs. Green Bay -- It's tempting fate to believe that Bryant will do something good two weeks in a row. Then again he has been a streaky player this year, so maybe he's on a new hot streak. There's good reason to think so; the Packers are almost as bad against #1 receivers as the Saints are, and they're also much better against pretty much all other receivers. Bryant may be the only viable target for Alex Smith all day when he chooses not to hand off to Frank Gore.

Sit

Laveranues Coles vs. Buffalo -- This should be a game only a left guard could love. The Jets and Bills have two of the worst three run defenses in the league (although the Jets are improving), so the rush should dominate. Not only that, but I don't mean to disturb you but the Bills have a top-10 pass defense, particularly good against #1 receivers.

Chad Johnson vs. Oakland -- Chad Johnson this year is a referendum on the "he could go off for half-a-hundred any week" theory of fantasy football. You often hear about how a player is a "must-start" even through a slump or in a bad matchup because of his potential to have an obscenely good game. Johnson's Weeks 10 and 11 count as obscenely good games; he's at or near the top of the WR ranks in nearly every fantasy scoring format, but fully half his value for the season came from those two games.

Here's the thing, though: Do you really need a quarter-season's worth of a player's points in one game, or would you rather have it spread evenly over, say, a quarter of a season? In head-to-head fantasy leagues you only have to win by one point. If Chad Johnson is going to help you beat your opponent by 50 two weeks out of the year but then average eight points a game the rest of the year (less if it's one point for 20 yards), are you sure you can't do better the other ten (and counting) weeks?

Derrick Mason at Kansas City -- It's been true basically all year: the Chiefs are the best in the league against #1 receivers. That's a whole lot better than Mason and the Ravens pass offense.

TIGHT ENDS

Start

Jeremy Shockey at Carolina -- He's probably a starter for you every week, but this week he could has a great shot to be the high scorer among tight ends. The Panthers are 28th in the league in defending against the tight end, which is much worse than the rest of their pass defense, so Shockey should be the best option on a lot of pass plays.

Sit

Randy McMichael vs. New England -- McMichael has been a disappointment this season (but what Dolphin hasn't, except Joey Harrington?). The Patriots, you might have heard, have a pretty good crew of linebackers, so it stands to reason that they would be good at defending the tight end, which they are (third in the league).

KICKERS

Start

Martin Gramatica vs. New Orleans -- This game coudl turn into a shootout pretty fast, and that gives the new toast of Dallas a lot of opportunities to get on the field. They can't all be extra point attempts.

Sit

Jason Elam vs. Denver -- He's hurt. Jay Cutler is rookieing it up for his offense. The Chargers have a pretty decent defense. There's simply not enough upside to justify playing a risky Elam over a waiver-wire kicker.

DEFENSES

Start

Chargers at Denver -- Jay Cutler probably won't be as bad as he was against the Seahawks. Then again with Shawne Merriman back the Chargers defense is a lot better than the Seahawks' this year.

Sit

Cowboys vs. New Orleans -- I expect Dallas to win this game, but that doesn't mean I think it'll be a blowout or that they'll be able to shut down the Saints offense.