Fantasy Football News 12/12/06

[Hache Man]

Running out of time
Vince Young's slashing run through the heart of Houston's defense stole the headlines, but that wasn't even the best revenge-dripping performance of Week 14. Artose Pinner ripped the Lions Sunday in a unique twist on Matt Millen's incompetence. His picks only play well in Detroit against the Lions. The Packers should sign Charles Rogers this week.

Angry Rotoworld emailers aside, no amount of preparation could get you ready for Pinner-mania. Cut late in training camp, Artose wasn't even active for the Vikings the three weeks leading into Sunday and hasn't topped three carries all year. A retread scoring as many points as Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, and Brian Westbrook combined is a good reminder that fantasy football will never be fair. It's not supposed to be. Ron Dayne, Mike Karney, and Pinner happen.

We sympathize with every owner who started Ciatrick Fason, we whiffed there, and are thankful he wasn't ranked him higher than No. 32 in Goal Line Stand. If you are still reading this column, you have likely dodged the Week 14 bullets and have advanced. For the waiver wire warriors still able to pick up players, here are the best selections of Week 15.

Running Backs

Justin Griffith, Falcons - When the Falcons decided to trade T.J. Duckett and only keep two tailbacks active most of the season, they cited fullback Justin Griffith's versatility as a primary reason. His 12-carry, 57-yard, and one touchdown performance in emergency duty Sunday made them look good.

By now, you've probably seen Griffith shake Bucs S Will Allen out of his shoes on his trip to the end zone. That play and Griffith's track record in the passing game is enough to make him our favorite waiver wired running back this week. The Falcons have shown their system is more important than the players. Griffith has averaged 4.5 yards-per-carry in his career and is guaranteed to have at least a backup role on Saturday against the Cowboys with Jerious Norwood expected to be out. He'll probably play third downs and possibly gets some goal line work. If Warrick Dunn misses the game as well, Griffith will be a decent flex option against Dallas.

Recommendation:Should be owned in all leagues

Ron Dayne, Texans - He just won't die. A Rotoworld summer 'sleeper' on a team he ultimately didn't make (Denver), Dayne has shown once again that anyone can succeed in a zone blocking scheme. Gary Kubiak says Dayne's early season struggles were caused by a turf toe injury and that we're now seeing the real Dayne. We think the real Dayne is just getting consistent carries (39 in two weeks) against poor rush defenses (Tennessee and Houston).

Dayne and the Texans head to Foxborough this week to face an ornery Patriots team. His run of success is likely to end, but look what lies ahead for Week 16: the Indianapolis Colts. Ron Dayne, Fantasy Championship MVP anyone?

Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues

Artose Pinner, Vikings - Pinner was owned in a whopping 0% of fantasy leagues heading into Week 14. The worrisome part for fantasy owners needing a spark this week is that Vikings coach Brad Childress said he didn't have a set plan for carries against Detroit. He was going to play the hot hand, and Pinner performed well early. Pinner got most of the snaps on the first drive, although Ciatrick Fason was in the mix, and Mewelde Moore also had one near the goal line. This week we could easily see Childress going back to Ciatrick Fason or Moore. The whole debate could be a moot point because Chester Taylor may be back this week.

Taylor believes he'll be back for this week's tasty matchup with the Jets, so it may not make a difference. The Vikings are less forthcoming. Pinner received a few starts last season in place of Kevin Jones and didn't perform particularly well. That's only one of the many reasons we'd pick up Justin Griffith and Ron Dayne over Pinner this week if we had to choose early in the week. Pinner has all the makings of a one-game wonder.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Arlen Harris, Lions - This whole Pinner-Harris-Aveion Cason Mike Martz triangle of intrigue is just too much for us to take. Just wait until Marshall Faulk signs with Detroit next year. It's the fantasy playoffs and we're still writing about Arlen Harris? Harris had a chance to play a bigger role for two games earlier this season when Kevin Jones was hurt: 18 carries, 45 yards rushing, 28 receiving yards and a touchdown in two games were the result.

The difference this week is that Detroit faces Green Bay. The Packers rush defense was respectable earlier in the season but has given up huge days to Shaun Alexander, Cedric Houston, and Frank Gore the last few weeks. Harris could put up 60 total yards, but you can do better if your team is still playing.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues.

Wide Receivers

Nate Burleson, Seahawks - Darrell Jackson is a player I own in nearly every league. With turf toe expected to knock him out of Thursday's game, I'm probably going to roll with Nate Burleson on a squad that is particularly thin at wide receiver. Burleson has mostly been a bust since signing with Seattle as a free agent, but has played well enough on returns to get mentioned as a possible Pro Bowl special teamer and has caught five passes (on six targets) and a touchdown in the last three games as Seattle's fourth receiver.

I know this is nothing to get too excited about. Burleson dropped every other pass thrown to him early in the year and it rightfully put him in the doghouse. But I can't help but think Matt Hasselbeck is going to attack 49ers cornerback Sammy Davis, just like Brett Favre did on Sunday. San Francisco is terrible at cornerback without Shawntae Spencer and Seattle's system is proven. I think Burleson could put up WR3 stats for the needy this week. Most playoff teams have sufficient lineups that he'd be a better pickup for the bench. If I had the option, I'd rather go with one of Burleson's teammates this week…

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

D.J. Hackett, Seahawks - Burleson will start, but it doesn't matter that much in Seattle's system. They play three receivers on most downs and Hackett will be on the field. By almost any measure, Hackett has been the superior player the last two seasons. Hackett is owned in my leagues, but is probably available in most 12-team affairs. Darrell Jackson is consistently Matt Hasselbeck's most frequent target, so his injury should mean more looks for Hackett, Burleson, and Deion Branch. A strong stretch run by Hackett could make Burleson, Bobby Engram, and even Jackson expendable this off-season in Seattle. Hackett has been Seattle's second most consistent option this year and deserves a bigger role.

Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

Ronald Curry, Raiders - After two popped Achilles' tendons, Curry is still very explosive. The definition of a Waiver Wired regular, Curry is likely to start if Randy Moss misses this week's game. His production is the best on Oakland's team since Aaron Brooks returned anyhow: 19 catches, 235 yards, and a touchdown in his last four games. While most of his production against the Bengals came in garbage time, Curry has good matchups against St. Louis and Kansas City the next two weeks. He's a reasonable pickup for depth.

Recommendation:Should be owned in 12-team league

Vincent Jackson, Chargers- With Keenan McCardell out, Vincent Jackson will continue to start and be Philip Rivers' favorite threat downfield. He's raw, but the Chiefs have been giving up a lot of big plays recently and Jackson could exploit them.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Santonio Holmes & Nate Washington, Steelers - Hines Ward will likely be back this week, but Cedrick Wilson won't. If either of these Pittsburgh receivers is available, they are solid options against an injury-ravaged Carolina secondary.

Recommendation: Worth a look in 12-team leagues

Tight Ends

Vernon Davis, 49ers - Forgive me if I repeat some of my comments about Davis from Sunday Schooled, but there are only so many ways I can talk about the same guy in the span of two days. Davis is a mercenary with the ball. His weaving 52-yard score where he bounced off tacklers made him look like a man among boys. He also had a 35-yard gainer called back because of penalty and was open for a touchdown another time but Alex Smith underthrew him.

Davis has to learn how to be a pro. It's clear he doesn't know the playbook, much less the defenses he's facing, as well as he should. But it's also clear he's too talented to be held down for long. San Francisco will get the ball in his hands as much as possible the next month.

Recommendation:Should be owned in all leagues

Tony Scheffler, Broncos - Sheffler scored twice in less than a minute against San Diego after pitching a shutout for the first 12 games of his rookie season. One of the scores was fluky and came off a dropped interception. But Scheffler's two other catches were for more than 25 yards. He's a zone-busting tight end prototype that lacks polish and any semblance of blocking skill. That's kept him off the field to this point, but he's likely to start with the Broncos fading and Stephen Alexander hurting.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Daniel Graham, Patriots - Graham caught four passes in Week 14, partly because Ben Watson missed most of the second with a knee injury. Watson owners could do worse than to pick up Graham for this week's game against Houston. Graham had a touchdown called back by penalty on Sunday, and is one of Tom Brady's favorite red zone targets.

Recommendation: Worth a look if desperate

Quarterback

Chris Weinke, Panthers - What a bizarre first start in four years. He played well enough in the first half, but the Panthers couldn't run the ball and kept dropping passes. He still managed a few nice long throws to Drew Carter.

Weinke came out after halftime and was terrible, forcing passes ball to Steve Smith and being intercepted three times. Those picks led to a huge deficit, so Weinke wound up throwing 61 passes and posting beautiful garbage-time numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if A) Delhomme doesn't start this week and B) the Panthers fall into a similar situation against Pittsburgh, helping Weinke to a decent fantasy day in a loss.

Recommendation: Mid-level Week 15 starter

Jay Cutler, Broncos - Cutler quietly played a solid second half against the Chargers Sunday while his defense was collapsing. The Cardinals have ended recent slumps by Marc Bulger and Matt Hasselbeck, and Cutler could be the next quarterback to throw for multiple scores against them.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deep leagues

Tim Rattay, Bucs - Competent, but nothing special. That's Tim Rattay's reputation and he lived up to it Sunday in a mop-up performance for Bruce Gradkowski. Jon Gruden is going with the rookie against the Bears this week, so Rattay isn't really an option. Desperate 2QB league owners could stash him for a possible Week 16 date against the Browns.

[Hache Man]

Seahawks Lose Another Star
First it was Tatum Bell and now the dreaded turf toe has struck Darrell Jackson. Jackson was injured late in Sunday's loss to Arizona and has reportedly already been ruled out of Thursday's game. If past turf toe recovery timetables are any indication, Jackson is unlikely to be fully healthy for the remainder of the regular season, but should have enough time to heal up for the playoffs.

Of course, that doesn't help Jackson's fantasy owners, as he's likely to be sidelined for the most important part of the fantasy season. In Jackson's absence, Nate Burleson will move into the starting lineup and D.J. Hackett will see his snaps increase. Hackett had already emerged as a solid WR3 option, meaning they're both worthwhile pickups now and passable WR2 plays with Jackson out. Deion Branch also sees his value rise, as he's now the clear No. 1 target in an explosive passing game.

If Jackson's regular season is indeed over, he finishes with 63 catches for 956 yards and what is for now at least an NFL-leading 10 touchdown grabs. Burleson has just one game this season that qualifies as a good one in fantasy terms, and that came way back in Week 3 but he did catch a touchdown in Week 14 and has done well as a return man of late. Hackett has posted big numbers while finding the end zone in two of the past three games, all with Jackson healthy.

While the Seahawks wonder if the injuries will ever stop, here are some other notes from around football …

* Kevin Jones' foot injury looked bad when it happened Sunday and the news just keeps getting worse. Jones has reportedly been diagnosed with a Lisfranc fracture in his left foot, which is an injury that knocks him out for the remainder of this season and also puts his 2007 campaign in serious jeopardy. Jones is facing a recovery period of at least six months and possibly up to a full year, which means you can add "running back" to the endless list of areas the Lions need to address during the offseason.

Arlen Harris will step back into the starting lineup in place of Jones, with Aveion Cason taking over as the backup, but it's likely that Detroit will simply air it out even more than usual (if that's even possible). Harris managed just 15 yards on eight carries in his lone start earlier this season and Jon Kitna figures to hand the ball off fewer than 15 times Sunday against Green Bay. Interestingly, Marshall Faulk indicated Monday that he plans to return in 2007 and a reunion with Mike Martz suddenly seems like a great fit.

* It sounds like Artose Pinner will go from a 125-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 14 to being back on the bench in Week 15. Coach Brad Childress has been cautious when it comes to Chester Taylor's status this week, but Taylor continues to insist that he'll play Sunday against the Jets. While Childress didn't address Taylor's chances of playing, he did say Monday that if Taylor does play, he'll resume being the starter and clear-cut No. 1 back.

Given the huge workload Taylor has taken on a weekly basis this year, there will be few carries for Pinner and Ciatrick Fason to divvy up behind him, meaning Pinner might be one of the greatest one-week wonders in fantasy football history. In fact, there's a chance he might not even be on the active roster Sunday—he'd frequently been inactive prior to Sunday's out-of-nowhere game—although that seems almost too mean. Whatever the case, it looks like it'll be Taylor's backfield again this week.

Two-Minute Drill: Coach Herm Edwards said Monday that Trent Green's job is safe despite a shaky performance in Week 14 … The Falcons reportedly have told Michael Vick to cut down on his running for the remainder of the season, which is a shame if only because of the historic numbers he had been putting up on the ground … After racking up 81 yards on four catches last week, rookie Santonio Holmes appears likely to start in Week 15 … Coach Jack Del Rio said Monday that he expects David Garrard to start throwing deep more often now that teams will be loading up against the Jaguars' running game … Coach Jon Gruden said Monday that he's sticking with Bruce Gradkowski over Tim Rattay, which means Joey Galloway will continue getting open deep downfield for absolutely no reason.

Red Zone: Coach John Fox said Monday that Jake Delhomme (thumb) will start in Week 15 if healthy, but he may not practice until late in the week, if at all … Musa Smith (neck) may be done for the season, but Jamal Lewis' heavy workload doesn't leave many carries for his backup anyway … Joseph Addai is expected to be questionable this week after leaving Sunday's game with an ankle injury … Coach Nick Saban said Monday that he doesn't expect Ronnie Brown (hand) to play this week, giving Sammy Morris a chance to put up big numbers for the third time in four games … Michael Turner (hamstring) is expected to return this week, but he's no longer a threat to steal carries from LaDainian Tomlinson … Coach Art Shell said Monday that Ronald Curry would start if Randy Moss (ankle) can't go this week, which makes sense given that Curry has outperformed Moss anyway.